This paper develops a novel stochastic tree ensemble method for nonlinear regression, which we refer to as XBART, short for Accelerated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. By combining regularization and stochastic search strategies from Bayesian modeling with computationally efficient techniques from recursive partitioning approaches, the new method attains state-of-the-art performance: in many settings it is both faster and more accurate than the widely-used XGBoost algorithm. Via careful simulation studies, we demonstrate that our new approach provides accurate point-wise estimates of the mean function and does so faster than popular alternatives, such as BART, XGBoost and neural networks (using Keras). We also prove a number of basic theoretical results about the new algorithm, including consistency of the single tree version of the model and stationarity of the Markov chain produced by the ensemble version. Furthermore, we demonstrate that initializing standard Bayesian additive regression trees Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) at XBART-fitted trees considerably improves credible interval coverage and reduces total run-time.
We use Levy processes to generate joint prior distributions, and therefore penalty functions, for a location parameter as p grows large. This generalizes the class of local-global shrinkage rules based on scale mixtures of normals, illuminates new connections among disparate methods, and leads to new results for computing posterior means and modes under a wide class of priors. We extend this framework to large-scale regularized regression problems where p>n, and provide comparisons with other methodologies.
Echo state network (ESN) is viewed as a temporal non-orthogonal expansion with pseudo-random parameters. Such expansions naturally give rise to regressors of various relevance to a teacher output. We illustrate that often only a certain amount of the generated echo-regressors effectively explain the variance of the teacher output and also that sole local regularization is not able to provide in-depth information concerning the importance of the generated regressors. The importance is therefore determined by a joint calculation of the individual variance contributions and Bayesian relevance usi…
We show how to extract the implicit copula of a response vector from a Bayesian regularized regression smoother with Gaussian disturbances. The copula can be used to compare smoothers that employ different shrinkage priors and function bases. We illustrate with three popular choices of shrinkage priors --- a pairwise prior, the horseshoe prior and a g prior augmented with a point mass as employed for Bayesian variable selection --- and both univariate and multivariate function bases. The implicit copulas are high-dimensional, have flexible dependence structures that are far from that of a Gaus…
Regularized regression models are well studied and, under appropriate conditions, offer fast and statistically interpretable results. However, large data in many applications are heterogeneous in the sense of harboring distributional differences between latent groups. Then, the assumption that the conditional distribution of response Y given features X is the same for all samples may not hold. Furthermore, in scientific applications, the covariance structure of the features may contain important signals and its learning is also affected by latent group structure. We propose a class of mixture …
We propose a new family of error distributions for model-based quantile regression, which is constructed through a structured mixture of normal distributions. The construction enables fixing specific percentiles of the distribution while, at the same time, allowing for varying mode, skewness and tail behavior. It thus overcomes the severe limitation of the asymmetric Laplace distribution -- the most commonly used error model for parametric quantile regression -- for which the skewness of the error density is fully specified when a particular percentile is fixed. We develop a Bayesian formulati…
Statistical postprocessing techniques are commonly used to improve the skill of ensembles of numerical weather forecasts. This paper considers spatial extensions of the well-established nonhomogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR) postprocessing technique for surface temperature and a recent modification thereof in which the local climatology is included in the regression model for a locally adaptive postprocessing. In a comparative study employing 21 h forecasts from the COSMO-DE ensemble predictive system over Germany, two approaches for modeling spatial forecast error correlations are considere…
In this paper, we investigate a multivariate multi-response (MVMR) linear regression problem, which contains multiple linear regression models with differently distributed design matrices, and different regression and output vectors. The goal is to recover the support union of all regression vectors using $l_1/l_2$-regularized Lasso. We characterize sufficient and necessary conditions on sample complexity \emph{as a sharp threshold} to guarantee successful recovery of the support union. Namely, if the sample size is above the threshold, then $l_1/l_2$-regularized Lasso correctly recovers the s…
We propose an approach to reduce the bias of ridge regression and regularization kernel network. When applied to a single data set the new algorithms have comparable learning performance with the original ones. When applied to incremental learning with block wise streaming data the new algorithms are more efficient due to bias reduction. Both theoretical characterizations and simulation studies are used to verify the effectiveness of these new algorithms.
École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne（洛桑联邦理工学院）
We investigate regularized algorithms combining with projection for least-squares regression problem over a Hilbert space, covering nonparametric regression over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We prove convergence results with respect to variants of norms, under a capacity assumption on the hypothesis space and a regularity condition on the target function. As a result, we obtain optimal rates for regularized algorithms with randomized sketches, provided that the sketch dimension is proportional to the effective dimension up to a logarithmic factor. As a byproduct, we obtain similar resul…
Many state-of-the-art machine learning models such as deep neural networks have recently shown to be vulnerable to adversarial perturbations, especially in classification tasks. Motivated by adversarial machine learning, in this paper we investigate the robustness of sparse regression models with strongly correlated covariates to adversarially designed measurement noises. Specifically, we consider the family of ordered weighted $\ell_1$ (OWL) regularized regression methods and study the case of OSCAR (octagonal shrinkage clustering algorithm for regression) in the adversarial setting. Under a …
Solving logistic regression with L1-regularization in distributed settings is an important problem. This problem arises when training dataset is very large and cannot fit the memory of a single machine. We present d-GLMNET, a new algorithm solving logistic regression with L1-regularization in the distributed settings. We empirically show that it is superior over distributed online learning via truncated gradient.
Zalando Research Lab（Zalando研究实验室）；University of Potsdam（波茨坦大学）
We present a detailed analysis of the class of regression decision tree algorithms which employ a regulized piecewise-linear node-splitting criterion and have regularized linear models at the leaves. From a theoretic standpoint, based on Rademacher complexity framework, we present new high-probability upper bounds for the generalization error for the proposed classes of regularized regression decision tree algorithms, including LASSO-type, and $\ell_{2}$ regularization for linear models at the leaves. Theoretical result are further extended by considering a general type of variable selection p…
Regularized regression problems are ubiquitous in statistical modeling, signal processing, and machine learning. Sparse regression in particular has been instrumental in scientific model discovery, including compressed sensing applications, variable selection, and high-dimensional analysis. We propose a broad framework for sparse relaxed regularized regression, called SR3. The key idea is to solve a relaxation of the regularized problem, which has three advantages over the state-of-the-art: (1) solutions of the relaxed problem are superior with respect to errors, false positives, and condition…
School of Statistics and Data Science, Qufu Normal University（统计与数据科学学院，曲阜师范大学）；Dongfang College, ShanDong University of Finance and Economics（东方学院，山东财经大学）
Kernel logistic regression (KLR) is a powerful classification method widely applied across diverse domains. In many real-world scenarios, indefinite kernels capture more domain-specific structural information than positive definite kernels. This paper proposes a novel $L_1$-norm regularized indefinite kernel logistic regression (RIKLR) model, which extends the existing IKLR framework by introducing sparsity via an $L_1$-norm penalty. The introduction of this regularization enhances interpretability and generalization while introducing nonsmoothness and nonconvexity into the optimization landsc…
Modal regression, a widely used regression protocol, has been extensively investigated in statistical and machine learning communities due to its robustness to outliers and heavy-tailed noises. Understanding modal regression's theoretical behavior can be fundamental in learning theory. Despite significant progress in characterizing its statistical property, the majority of the results are based on the assumption that samples are independent and identical distributed (i.i.d.), which is too restrictive for real-world applications. This paper concerns the statistical property of regularized modal…
In this paper, we consider the coefficient-based regularized distribution regression which aims to regress from probability measures to real-valued responses over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), where the regularization is put on the coefficients and kernels are assumed to be indefinite. The algorithm involves two stages of sampling, the first stage sample consists of distributions and the second stage sample is obtained from these distributions. Asymptotic behaviors of the algorithm in different regularity ranges of the regression function are comprehensively studied and learning r…
We study the effect of norm based regularization on the size of coresets for regression problems. Specifically, given a matrix $ \mathbf{A} \in {\mathbb{R}}^{n \times d}$ with $n\gg d$ and a vector $\mathbf{b} \in \mathbb{R} ^ n $ and $λ> 0$, we analyze the size of coresets for regularized versions of regression of the form $\|\mathbf{Ax}-\mathbf{b}\|_p^r + λ\|{\mathbf{x}}\|_q^s$ . Prior work has shown that for ridge regression (where $p,q,r,s=2$) we can obtain a coreset that is smaller than the coreset for the unregularized counterpart i.e. least squares regression (Avron et al). We show that…
Vanderbilt University（范德堡大学）；Washington University in St. Louis（圣路易斯华盛顿大学）
Despite the considerable success of convolutional neural networks in a broad array of domains, recent research has shown these to be vulnerable to small adversarial perturbations, commonly known as adversarial examples. Moreover, such examples have shown to be remarkably portable, or transferable, from one model to another, enabling highly successful black-box attacks. We explore this issue of transferability and robustness from two dimensions: first, considering the impact of conventional $l_p$ regularization as well as replacing the top layer with a linear support vector machine (SVM), and s…
Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）；Sun Yat-sen University（中山大学）
A typical approach in estimating the learning rate of a regularized learning scheme is to bound the approximation error by the sum of the sampling error, the hypothesis error and the regularization error. Using a reproducing kernel space that satisfies the linear representer theorem brings the advantage of discarding the hypothesis error from the sum automatically. Following this direction, we illustrate how reproducing kernel Banach spaces with the l1 norm can be applied to improve the learning rate estimate of l1-regularization in machine learning.
Jheronimus Academy of Data Science（杰罗尼莫斯数据科学学院）；Eindhoven University（埃因霍温大学）；Ferdowsi University of Mashhad（马什哈德 Ferdowsi 大学）
$\ell_1$ regularization has been used for logistic regression to circumvent the overfitting and use the estimated sparse coefficient for feature selection. However, the challenge of such a regularization is that the $\ell_1$ norm is not differentiable, making the standard algorithms for convex optimization not applicable to this problem. This paper presents a simple projection neural network for $\ell_1$-regularized logistics regression. In contrast to many available solvers in the literature, the proposed neural network does not require any extra auxiliary variable nor any smooth approximatio…
Samuel Oschin Comprehensive Cancer Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center（西达赛奈医疗中心塞缪尔·奥斯钦综合癌症研究所）；University of California at Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）
Variable (feature, gene, model, which we use interchangeably) selections for regression with high-dimensional BIGDATA have found many applications in bioinformatics, computational biology, image processing, and engineering. One appealing approach is the L0 regularized regression which penalizes the number of nonzero features in the model directly. L0 is known as the most essential sparsity measure and has nice theoretical properties, while the popular L1 regularization is only a best convex relaxation of L0. Therefore, it is natural to expect that L0 regularized regression performs better than…
Feature selection is a standard approach to understanding and modeling high-dimensional classification data, but the corresponding statistical methods hinge on tuning parameters that are difficult to calibrate. In particular, existing calibration schemes in the logistic regression framework lack any finite sample guarantees. In this paper, we introduce a novel calibration scheme for $\ell_1$-penalized logistic regression. It is based on simple tests along the tuning parameter path and is equipped with optimal guarantees for feature selection. It is also amenable to easy and efficient implement…
University of Central Florida（中佛罗里达大学）；State University of New York at Albany（纽约州立大学奥尔巴尼分校）
While matrix variate regression models have been studied in many existing works, classical statistical and computational methods for the analysis of the regression coefficient estimation are highly affected by high dimensional and noisy matrix-valued predictors. To address these issues, this paper proposes a framework of matrix variate regression models based on a rank constraint, vector regularization (e.g., sparsity), and a general loss function with three special cases considered: ordinary matrix regression, robust matrix regression, and matrix logistic regression. We also propose an altern…
We study gradient descent (GD) with a constant stepsize for $\ell_2$-regularized logistic regression with linearly separable data. Classical theory suggests small stepsizes to ensure monotonic reduction of the optimization objective, achieving exponential convergence in $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(κ)$ steps with $κ$ being the condition number. Surprisingly, we show that this can be accelerated to $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrtκ)$ by simply using a large stepsize -- for which the objective evolves nonmonotonically. The acceleration brought by large stepsizes extends to minimizing the population ri…
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；University of Colorado Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）；The Alan Turing Institute（阿兰·图灵研究所）
Induction benefits from useful priors. Penalized regression approaches, like ridge regression, shrink weights toward zero but zero association is usually not a sensible prior. Inspired by simple and robust decision heuristics humans use, we constructed non-zero priors for penalized regression models that provide robust and interpretable solutions across several tasks. Our approach enables estimates from a constrained model to serve as a prior for a more general model, yielding a principled way to interpolate between models of differing complexity. We successfully applied this approach to a num…
In this paper, we develop a new approach to learning high-dimensional Poisson directed acyclic graphical (DAG) models from only observational data without strong assumptions such as faithfulness and strong sparsity. A key component of our method is to decouple the ordering estimation or parent search where the problems can be efficiently addressed using $\ell_1$-regularized regression and the mean-variance relationship. We show that sample size $n = Ω( d^{2} \log^{9} p)$ is sufficient for our polynomial time Mean-variance Ratio Scoring (MRS) algorithm to recover the true directed graph, where …
China University of Petroleum (East China)（中国石油大学（华东））
With the rapid development of social media sharing, people often need to manage the growing volume of multimedia data such as large scale video classification and annotation, especially to organize those videos containing human activities. Recently, manifold regularized semi-supervised learning (SSL), which explores the intrinsic data probability distribution and then improves the generalization ability with only a small number of labeled data, has emerged as a promising paradigm for semiautomatic video classification. In addition, human action videos often have multi-modal content and differe…
Offline reinforcement learning (RL), also known as batch RL, offers the prospect of policy optimization from large pre-recorded datasets without online environment interaction. It addresses challenges with regard to the cost of data collection and safety, both of which are particularly pertinent to real-world applications of RL. Unfortunately, most off-policy algorithms perform poorly when learning from a fixed dataset. In this paper, we propose a novel offline RL algorithm to learn policies from data using a form of critic-regularized regression (CRR). We find that CRR performs surprisingly w…
Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；University of Salento（萨伦托大学）
Advanced 3D metrology technologies such as Coordinate Measuring Machine (CMM) and laser 3D scanners have facilitated the collection of massive point cloud data, beneficial for process monitoring, control and optimization. However, due to their high dimensionality and structure complexity, modeling and analysis of point clouds are still a challenge. In this paper, we utilize multilinear algebra techniques and propose a set of tensor regression approaches to model the variational patterns of point clouds and to link them to process variables. The performance of the proposed methods is evaluated …
State Key Laboratory of Software Engineering, School of Computer, Wuhan University（武汉大学计算机学院软件工程国家重点实验室）；National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院国家数学与交叉科学中心）
Molecular profiling data (e.g., gene expression) has been used for clinical risk prediction and biomarker discovery. However, it is necessary to integrate other prior knowledge like biological pathways or gene interaction networks to improve the predictive ability and biological interpretability of biomarkers. Here, we first introduce a general regularized Logistic Regression (LR) framework with regularized term $λ\|\bm{w}\|_1 + η\bm{w}^T\bm{M}\bm{w}$, which can reduce to different penalties, including Lasso, elastic net, and network-regularized terms with different $\bm{M}$. This framework ca…
The University of Hong Kong（香港大学）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）；Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, CAS（中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院）
This paper proposed a new regression model called $l_1$-regularized outlier isolation and regression (LOIRE) and a fast algorithm based on block coordinate descent to solve this model. Besides, assuming outliers are gross errors following a Bernoulli process, this paper also presented a Bernoulli estimate model which, in theory, should be very accurate and robust due to its complete elimination of affections caused by outliers. Though this Bernoulli estimate is hard to solve, it could be approximately achieved through a process which takes LOIRE as an important intermediate step. As a result, …
Fudan University（复旦大学）；Weierstrass Institute for Applied Analysis and Stochastics（魏尔斯特拉斯应用分析与随机研究所）；Medical University of Innsbruck（因斯布鲁克医科大学）
This paper studies a Nyström type subsampling approach to large kernel learning methods in the misspecified case, where the target function is not assumed to belong to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space generated by the underlying kernel. This case is less understood, in spite of its practical importance. To model such a case, the smoothness of target functions is described in terms of general source conditions. It is surprising that almost for the whole range of the source conditions, describing the misspecified case, the corresponding learning rate bounds can be achieved with just one valu…
The University of Tokyo（东京大学）；Institute for Physics of Intelligence（智能物理研究所）；Kyoto University（京都大学）
We theoretically analyze the typical learning performance of $\ell_{1}$-regularized linear regression ($\ell_1$-LinR) for Ising model selection using the replica method from statistical mechanics. For typical random regular graphs in the paramagnetic phase, an accurate estimate of the typical sample complexity of $\ell_1$-LinR is obtained. Remarkably, despite the model misspecification, $\ell_1$-LinR is model selection consistent with the same order of sample complexity as $\ell_{1}$-regularized logistic regression ($\ell_1$-LogR), i.e., $M=\mathcal{O}\left(\log N\right)$, where $N$ is the num…
Mixture of Experts (MoE) are successful models for modeling heterogeneous data in many statistical learning problems including regression, clustering and classification. Generally fitted by maximum likelihood estimation via the well-known EM algorithm, their application to high-dimensional problems is still therefore challenging. We consider the problem of fitting and feature selection in MoE models, and propose a regularized maximum likelihood estimation approach that encourages sparse solutions for heterogeneous regression data models with potentially high-dimensional predictors. Unlike stat…
This paper characterizes the conditional distribution properties of the finite sample ridge regression estimator and uses that result to evaluate total regression and generalization errors that incorporate the inaccuracies committed at the time of parameter estimation. The paper provides explicit formulas for those errors. Unlike other classical references in this setup, our results take place in a fully singular setup that does not assume the existence of a solution for the non-regularized regression problem. In exchange, we invoke a conditional homoscedasticity hypothesis on the regularized …
Regularization is used to find a solution that both fits the data and is sufficiently smooth, and thereby is very effective for designing and refining learning algorithms. But the influence of its exponent remains poorly understood. In particular, it is unclear how the exponent of the reproducing kernel Hilbert space~(RKHS) regularization term affects the accuracy and the efficiency of kernel-based learning algorithms. Here we consider regularized least squares regression (RLSR) with an RKHS regularization raised to the power of m, where m is a variable real exponent. We design an efficient al…
The Voleon Group；University of California, Riverside（加州大学河滨分校）
For various applications, the relations between the dependent and independent variables are highly nonlinear. Consequently, for large scale complex problems, neural networks and regression trees are commonly preferred over linear models such as Lasso. This work proposes learning the feature nonlinearities by binning feature values and finding the best fit in each quantile using non-convex regularized linear regression. The algorithm first captures the dependence between neighboring quantiles by enforcing smoothness via piecewise-constant/linear approximation and then selects a sparse subset of…
Regularized kernel methods such as, e.g., support vector machines and least-squares support vector regression constitute an important class of standard learning algorithms in machine learning. Theoretical investigations concerning asymptotic properties have manly focused on rates of convergence during the last years but there are only very few and limited (asymptotic) results on statistical inference so far. As this is a serious limitation for their use in mathematical statistics, the goal of the article is to fill this gap. Based on asymptotic normality of many of these methods, the article d…
Institute for Mathematical and Molecular Biomedicine, King’s College London（伦敦国王学院数学与分子生物医学研究所）；King’s College London（伦敦国王学院）；Saddle Point Science Ltd（鞍点科学有限公司）
The Cox proportional hazards model is ubiquitous in the analysis of time-to-event data. However, when the data dimension p is comparable to the sample size $N$, maximum likelihood estimates for its regression parameters are known to be biased or break down entirely due to overfitting. This prompted the introduction of the so-called regularized Cox model. In this paper we use the replica method from statistical physics to investigate the relationship between the true and inferred regression parameters in regularized multivariate Cox regression with L2 regularization, in the regime where both p …
Recently, Mahoney and Orecchia demonstrated that popular diffusion-based procedures to compute a quick \emph{approximation} to the first nontrivial eigenvector of a data graph Laplacian \emph{exactly} solve certain regularized Semi-Definite Programs (SDPs). In this paper, we extend that result by providing a statistical interpretation of their approximation procedure. Our interpretation will be analogous to the manner in which $\ell_2$-regularized or $\ell_1$-regularized $\ell_2$-regression (often called Ridge regression and Lasso regression, respectively) can be interpreted in terms of a Gaus…
Relaxed Sparse Eigenvalue Conditions for Sparse Estimation via Non-convex Regularized Regression
Department of Automation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, P.R.China（自动化系，清华大学，北京100084，中国）；State Key Lab of Intelligent Technologies and Systems（智能技术与系统国家重点实验室）；Tsinghua National Laboratory for Information Science and Technology(TNList)（信息科学与技术国家实验室（清华大学））
Tree based ensembles such as Breiman's random forest (RF) and Gradient Boosted Trees (GBT) can be interpreted as implicit kernel generators, where the ensuing proximity matrix represents the data-driven tree ensemble kernel. Kernel perspective on the RF has been used to develop a principled framework for theoretical investigation of its statistical properties. Recently, it has been shown that the kernel interpretation is germane to other tree-based ensembles e.g. GBTs. However, practical utility of the links between kernels and the tree ensembles has not been widely explored and systematically…
A prevalent feature of high-dimensional data is the dependence among covariates, and model selection is known to be challenging when covariates are highly correlated. To perform model selection for the high-dimensional Cox proportional hazards model in presence of correlated covariates with factor structure, we propose a new model, Factor-Augmented Regularized Model for Hazard Regression (FarmHazard), which builds upon latent factors that drive covariate dependence and extends Cox's model. This new model generates procedures that operate in two steps by learning factors and idiosyncratic compo…
Swiss Finance Institute（瑞士金融研究所）；Yale University（耶鲁大学）；University of Lausanne（洛桑大学）；AQR Capital Management（AQR资本管理公司）；EPFL（洛桑联邦理工学院）
We introduce a methodology for designing and training deep neural networks (DNN) that we call "Deep Regression Ensembles" (DRE). It bridges the gap between DNN and two-layer neural networks trained with random feature regression. Each layer of DRE has two components, randomly drawn input weights and output weights trained myopically (as if the final output layer) using linear ridge regression. Within a layer, each neuron uses a different subset of inputs and a different ridge penalty, constituting an ensemble of random feature ridge regressions. Our experiments show that a single DRE architect…
Imputation and propensity score weighting are two popular techniques for handling missing data. We address these problems using the regularized M-estimation techniques in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Specifically, we first use the kernel ridge regression to develop imputation for handling item nonresponse. While this nonparametric approach is potentially promising for imputation, its statistical properties are not investigated in the literature. Under some conditions on the order of the tuning parameter, we first establish the root-$n$ consistency of the kernel ridge regression imputa…
Generating user interpretable multi-class predictions in data rich environments with many classes and explanatory covariates is a daunting task. We introduce Diagonal Orthant Latent Dirichlet Allocation (DOLDA), a supervised topic model for multi-class classification that can handle both many classes as well as many covariates. To handle many classes we use the recently proposed Diagonal Orthant (DO) probit model (Johndrow et al., 2013) together with an efficient Horseshoe prior for variable selection/shrinkage (Carvalho et al., 2010). We propose a computationally efficient parallel Gibbs samp…
We study tail risk dynamics in high-frequency financial markets and their connection with trading activity and market uncertainty. We introduce a dynamic extreme value regression model accommodating both stationary and local unit-root predictors to appropriately capture the time-varying behaviour of the distribution of high-frequency extreme losses. To characterize trading activity and market uncertainty, we consider several volatility and liquidity predictors, and propose a two-step adaptive $L_1$-regularized maximum likelihood estimator to select the most appropriate ones. We establish the o…
