Online solvers for partially observable Markov decision processes have difficulty scaling to problems with large action spaces. Monte Carlo tree search with progressive widening attempts to improve scaling by sampling from the action space to construct a policy search tree. The performance of progressive widening search is dependent upon the action sampling policy, often requiring problem-specific samplers. In this work, we present a general method for efficient action sampling based on Bayesian optimization. The proposed method uses a Gaussian process to model a belief over the action-value function and selects the action that will maximize the expected improvement in the optimal action value. We implement the proposed approach in a new online tree search algorithm called Bayesian Optimized Monte Carlo Planning (BOMCP). Several experiments show that BOMCP is better able to scale to large action space POMDPs than existing state-of-the-art tree search solvers.
Bayesian inference for data-efficient, explainable, and safe robotic motion planning: A review
University of Eastern Finland（东芬兰大学）；School of Computing（计算机学院）；Shenzhen Technology University（深圳技术大学）；College of Big Data and Internet（大数据与互联网学院）；Chengdu University of Information Technology（成都信息工程大学）；College of Blockchain industry（区块链产业学院）；College of Health Science and Environmental Engineering（健康科学与环境工程学院）
People routinely infer the goals of others by observing their actions over time. Remarkably, we can do so even when those actions lead to failure, enabling us to assist others when we detect that they might not achieve their goals. How might we endow machines with similar capabilities? Here we present an architecture capable of inferring an agent's goals online from both optimal and non-optimal sequences of actions. Our architecture models agents as boundedly-rational planners that interleave search with execution by replanning, thereby accounting for sub-optimal behavior. These models are spe…
The computational costs of inference and planning have confined Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning to one of two dismal fates: powerful Bayes-adaptive planning but only for simplistic models, or powerful, Bayesian non-parametric models but using simple, myopic planning strategies such as Thompson sampling. We ask whether it is feasible and truly beneficial to combine rich probabilistic models with a closer approximation to fully Bayesian planning. First, we use a collection of counterexamples to show formal problems with the over-optimism inherent in Thompson sampling. Then we leverag…
McGill University（麦吉尔大学）；School of Computer Science（计算机学院）
Model-based Bayesian reinforcement learning has generated significant interest in the AI community as it provides an elegant solution to the optimal exploration-exploitation tradeoff in classical reinforcement learning. Unfortunately, the applicability of this type of approach has been limited to small domains due to the high complexity of reasoning about the joint posterior over model parameters. In this paper, we consider the use of factored representations combined with online planning techniques, to improve scalability of these methods. The main contribution of this paper is a Bayesian fra…
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；NASA Ames Research Center（美国国家航空航天局艾姆斯研究中心）
Adaptive Informative Path Planning with Multimodal Sensing (AIPPMS) considers the problem of an agent equipped with multiple sensors, each with different sensing accuracy and energy costs. The agent's goal is to explore the environment and gather information subject to its resource constraints in unknown, partially observable environments. Previous work has focused on the less general Adaptive Informative Path Planning (AIPP) problem, which considers only the effect of the agent's movement on received observations. The AIPPMS problem adds additional complexity by requiring that the agent reaso…
The aim of this work is to address the question of whether we can in principle design rational decision-making agents or artificial intelligences embedded in computable physics such that their decisions are optimal in reasonable mathematical senses. Recent developments in rare event probability estimation, recursive bayesian inference, neural networks, and probabilistic planning are sufficient to explicitly approximate reinforcement learners of the AIXI style with non-trivial model classes (here, the class of resource-bounded Turing machines). Consideration of the effects of resource limitatio…
The explore{exploit dilemma is one of the central challenges in Reinforcement Learning (RL). Bayesian RL solves the dilemma by providing the agent with information in the form of a prior distribution over environments; however, full Bayesian planning is intractable. Planning with the mean MDP is a common myopic approximation of Bayesian planning. We derive a novel reward bonus that is a function of the posterior distribution over environments, which, when added to the reward in planning with the mean MDP, results in an agent which explores efficiently and effectively. Although our method is si…
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) provides a principled general model for planning under uncertainty. However, solving a general POMDP is computationally intractable in the worst case. This paper introduces POMDP-lite, a subclass of POMDPs in which the hidden state variables are constant or only change deterministically. We show that a POMDP-lite is equivalent to a set of fully observable Markov decision processes indexed by a hidden parameter and is useful for modeling a variety of interesting robotic tasks. We develop a simple model-based Bayesian reinforcement learnin…
University of Liege（列日大学）；The Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）；Aalborg University（奥尔堡大学）
Civil and maritime engineering systems, among others, from bridges to offshore platforms and wind turbines, must be efficiently managed as they are exposed to deterioration mechanisms throughout their operational life, such as fatigue or corrosion. Identifying optimal inspection and maintenance policies demands the solution of a complex sequential decision-making problem under uncertainty, with the main objective of efficiently controlling the risk associated with structural failures. Addressing this complexity, risk-based inspection planning methodologies, supported often by dynamic Bayesian …
Chalmers University of Technology（查尔姆斯理工大学）；University of Oslo（奥斯陆大学）
We address the problem of Bayesian reinforcement learning using efficient model-based online planning. We propose an optimism-free Bayes-adaptive algorithm to induce deeper and sparser exploration with a theoretical bound on its performance relative to the Bayes optimal policy, with a lower computational complexity. The main novelty is the use of a candidate policy generator, to generate long-term options in the planning tree (over beliefs), which allows us to create much sparser and deeper trees. Experimental results on different environments show that in comparison to the state-of-the-art, o…
ETH Zürich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Swiss Federal Railways SBB（瑞士联邦铁路）；Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；Pennsylvania State Univ.（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）
Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) describes a process for inferring quantifiable metrics of structural condition, which can serve as input to support decisions on the operation and maintenance of infrastructure assets. Given the long lifespan of critical structures, this problem can be cast as a sequential decision making problem over prescribed horizons. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) offer a formal framework to solve the underlying optimal planning task. However, two issues can undermine the POMDP solutions. Firstly, the need for a model that can adequately describe…
There has been a lot of recent work on Bayesian methods for reinforcement learning exhibiting near-optimal online performance. The main obstacle facing such methods is that in most problems of interest, the optimal solution involves planning in an infinitely large tree. However, it is possible to obtain stochastic lower and upper bounds on the value of each tree node. This enables us to use stochastic branch and bound algorithms to search the tree efficiently. This paper proposes two such algorithms and examines their complexity in this setting.
College of Information Science and Engineering, Ritsumeikan University（立命馆大学信息科学与工程学院）；National Institute of Informatics（国立情报学研究所）；The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, SOKENDAI（综合研究大学院大学）
Robots are required to not only learn spatial concepts autonomously but also utilize such knowledge for various tasks in a domestic environment. Spatial concept represents a multimodal place category acquired from the robot's spatial experience including vision, speech-language, and self-position. The aim of this study is to enable a mobile robot to perform navigational tasks with human speech instructions, such as `Go to the kitchen', via probabilistic inference on a Bayesian generative model using spatial concepts. Specifically, path planning was formalized as the maximization of probabilist…
The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) is a principled general framework for robot decision making under uncertainty, but POMDP planning suffers from high computational complexity, when long-term planning is required. While temporally-extended macro-actions help to cut down the effective planning horizon and significantly improve computational efficiency, how do we acquire good macro-actions? This paper proposes Macro-Action Generator-Critic (MAGIC), which performs offline learning of macro-actions optimized for online POMDP planning. Specifically, MAGIC learns a macro-action…
Quasi-Bayesian theory uses convex sets of probability distributions and expected loss to represent preferences about plans. The theory focuses on decision robustness, i.e., the extent to which plans are affected by deviations in subjective assessments of probability. The present work presents solutions for plan generation when robustness of probability assessments must be included: plans contain information about the robustness of certain actions. The surprising result is that some problems can be solved faster in the Quasi-Bayesian framework than within usual Bayesian theory. We investigate t…
To maximize its success, an AGI typically needs to explore its initially unknown world. Is there an optimal way of doing so? Here we derive an affirmative answer for a broad class of environments.
Technion - Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）
Inference and decision making under uncertainty are key processes in every autonomous system and numerous robotic problems. In recent years, the similarities between inference and decision making triggered much work, from developing unified computational frameworks to pondering about the duality between the two. In spite of these efforts, inference and control, as well as inference and belief space planning (BSP) are still treated as two separate processes. In this paper we propose a paradigm shift, a novel approach which deviates from conventional Bayesian inference and utilizes the similarit…
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；Harvey Mudd College（哈维穆德学院）
UV radiation has been used as a disinfection strategy to deactivate a wide range of pathogens, but existing irradiation strategies do not ensure sufficient exposure of all environmental surfaces and/or require long disinfection times. We present a near-optimal coverage planner for mobile UV disinfection robots. The formulation optimizes the irradiation time efficiency, while ensuring that a sufficient dosage of radiation is received by each surface. The trajectory and dosage plan are optimized taking collision and light occlusion constraints into account. We propose a two-stage scheme to appro…
Safran Electronics & Defense（赛峰电子与防务公司）；LAMSADE, Paris-Dauphine University（巴黎多芬大学LAMSADE实验室）；CREC Saint-Cyr, Coetquidan School Campus（圣西尔军校科埃基当校区研究中心）
Deep learning-based methods are growing prominence for planning purposes. In this paper, we present a hybrid planner that combines a graph machine learning model and an optimal solver based on branch and bound tree search for path-planning tasks. More specifically, a graph neural network is used to assist the branch and bound algorithm in handling constraints associated with a desired solution path. There are multiple downstream practical applications, such as Autonomous Unmanned Ground Vehicles (AUGV), typically deployed in disaster relief or search and rescue operations. In off-road environm…
Sampling-based planning is the predominant paradigm for motion planning in robotics. Most sampling-based planners use a global random sampling scheme to guarantee probabilistic completeness. However, most schemes are often inefficient as the samples drawn from the global proposal distribution, and do not exploit relevant local structures. Local sampling-based motion planners, on the other hand, take sequential decisions of random walks to samples valid trajectories in configuration space. However, current approaches do not adapt their strategies according to the success and failures of past sa…
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
This paper presents a novel nonmyopic adaptive Gaussian process planning (GPP) framework endowed with a general class of Lipschitz continuous reward functions that can unify some active learning/sensing and Bayesian optimization criteria and offer practitioners some flexibility to specify their desired choices for defining new tasks/problems. In particular, it utilizes a principled Bayesian sequential decision problem framework for jointly and naturally optimizing the exploration-exploitation trade-off. In general, the resulting induced GPP policy cannot be derived exactly due to an uncountabl…
MIT Laboratory for Computer Science（麻省理工学院计算机科学实验室）
Bayesian networks provide a probabilistic semantics for qualitative assertions about likelihood. A qualitative reasoner based on an algebra over these assertions can derive further conclusions about the influence of actions. While the conclusions are much weaker than those computed from complete probability distributions, they are still valuable for suggesting potential actions, eliminating obviously inferior plans, identifying important tradeoffs, and explaining probabilistic models.
Washington State University（华盛顿州立大学）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
The rising growth of deep neural networks (DNNs) and datasets in size motivates the need for efficient solutions for simultaneous model selection and training. Many methods for hyperparameter optimization (HPO) of iterative learners, including DNNs, attempt to solve this problem by querying and learning a response surface while searching for the optimum of that surface. However, many of these methods make myopic queries, do not consider prior knowledge about the response structure, and/or perform a biased cost-aware search, all of which exacerbate identifying the best-performing model when a t…
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Sony Corporation（索尼公司）
Most human behaviors consist of multiple parts, steps, or subtasks. These structures guide our action planning and execution, but when we observe others, the latent structure of their actions is typically unobservable, and must be inferred in order to learn new skills by demonstration, or to assist others in completing their tasks. For example, an assistant who has learned the subgoal structure of a colleague's task can more rapidly recognize and support their actions as they unfold. Here we model how humans infer subgoals from observations of complex action sequences using a nonparametric Bay…
Kyowa Hakko Bio Co., Ltd.（协和发酵生物株式会社）；Kyoto University（京都大学）；Hirosaki University（弘前大学）
Clinical decision making regarding treatments based on personal characteristics leads to effective health improvements. Machine learning (ML) has been the primary concern of diagnosis support according to comprehensive patient information. However, the remaining prominent issue is the development of objective treatment processes in clinical situations. This study proposes a novel framework to plan treatment processes in a data-driven manner. A key point of the framework is the evaluation of the "actionability" for personal health improvements by using a surrogate Bayesian model in addition to …
The Robotics Institute, Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学机器人研究所）；School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Washington（华盛顿大学计算机科学与工程学院）
Robots operate in environments with varying implicit structure. For instance, a helicopter flying over terrain encounters a very different arrangement of obstacles than a robotic arm manipulating objects on a cluttered table top. State-of-the-art motion planning systems do not exploit this structure, thereby expending valuable planning effort searching for implausible solutions. We are interested in planning algorithms that actively infer the underlying structure of the valid configuration space during planning in order to find solutions with minimal effort. Consider the problem of evaluating …
Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur（印度理工学院卡拉格普尔分校）；TEOCO Software Pvt. Ltd.（TEOCO软件私人有限公司）
With technological advancement, drone has emerged as unmanned aerial vehicle that can be controlled by humans to fly or reach a destination. This may be autonomous as well, where the drone itself is intelligent enough to find a shortest obstacle-free path to reach the destination from a designated source. Be it a planned smart city or even a wreckage site affected by natural calamity, we may imagine the buildings, any surface-erected structure or other blockage as obstacles for the drone to fly in a straight line-of-sight path. To address such path-planning of drones, the bird's eye-view of th…
MIT（麻省理工学院）；University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；University of Liverpool（利物浦大学）
Online, sample-based planning algorithms for POMDPs have shown great promise in scaling to problems with large state spaces, but they become intractable for large action and observation spaces. This is particularly problematic in multiagent POMDPs where the action and observation space grows exponentially with the number of agents. To combat this intractability, we propose a novel scalable approach based on sample-based planning and factored value functions that exploits structure present in many multiagent settings. This approach applies not only in the planning case, but also in the Bayesian…
For rapid growth in technology and automation, human tasks are being taken over by robots as robots have proven to be better with both speed and precision. One of the major and widespread usages of these robots is in the industrial businesses, where they are employed to carry massive loads in and around work areas. As these working environments might not be completely localized and could be dynamically changing, new approaches must be evaluated to guarantee a crash-free way of performing duties. This paper presents a new and efficient fusion algorithm for solving the path planning problem in a…
BayTTA: Uncertainty-aware medical image classification with optimized test-time augmentation using Bayesian model averaging
Université du Québec à Montréal（魁北克大学蒙特利尔分校）；Institute for Intelligent Systems Research and Innovation (IISRI), Deakin University（迪肯大学智能系统研究与创新研究所）；Cracow University of Technology（克拉科夫工业大学）；Mila - Quebec AI Institute（米拉-魁北克人工智能研究所）
