海洋废弃物迁移路径与垃圾斑块稳定性
Transition paths of marine debris and the stability of the garbage patches
摘要：
我们使用过渡路径理论（TPT）来推断“反应”路径的漂浮海洋垃圾的轨迹。TPT分析应用于污染意识的时间齐次马尔可夫链模型，该模型由NOAA全球漂流者计划的卫星跟踪无浮标产生的轨迹构建。后者涉及处理系统在物理空间中的开放性，这进一步要求对标准TPT设置进行调整。直接连接沿海的污染源与不同强度的垃圾斑块，公布的反应性污染路线代表了海洋清理工作的替代目标。在我们的具体发现中，我们强调：限制大太平洋垃圾带的高度可能的污染源;将印度洋环流的弱点描述为塑料废物的陷阱;以及揭示副热带环流系在发生强烈大风时向海岸线而不是其他环流出口垃圾的趋势。
英文摘要：
We used transition path theory (TPT) to infer "reactive" pathways of floating marine debris trajectories. The TPT analysis was applied on a pollution-aware time-homogeneous Markov chain model constructed from trajectories produced by satellite-tracked undrogued buoys from the NOAA Global Drifter Program. The latter involved coping with the openness of the system in physical space, which further required an adaptation of the standard TPT setting. Directly connecting pollution sources along coastlines with garbage patches of varied strengths, the unveiled reactive pollution routes represent alternative targets for ocean cleanup efforts. Among our specific findings we highlight: constraining a highly probable pollution source for the Great Pacific Garbage Patch; characterizing the weakness of the Indian Ocean gyre as a trap for plastic waste; and unveiling a tendency of the subtropical gyres to export garbage toward the coastlines rather than to other gyres in the event of anomalously intense winds.
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