Risk specialists are trying to understand risk better and use complex models for risk assessment, while many risks are not yet well understood. The lack of empirical data and complex causal and outcome relationships make it difficult to estimate the degree to which certain risk types are exposed. Traditional risk models are based on classical set theory. In comparison, fuzzy logic models are built on fuzzy set theory and are useful for analyzing risks with insufficient knowledge or inaccurate data. Fuzzy logic systems help to make large-scale risk management frameworks more simple. For risks that do not have an appropriate probability model, a fuzzy logic system can help model the cause and effect relationships, assess the level of risk exposure, rank key risks in a consistent way, and consider available data and experts'opinions. Besides, in fuzzy logic systems, some rules explicitly explain the connection, dependence, and relationships between model factors. This can help identify risk mitigation solutions. Resources can be used to mitigate risks with very high levels of exposure and relatively low hedging costs. Fuzzy set and fuzzy logic models can be used with Bayesian and other types of method recognition and decision models, including artificial neural networks and decision tree models. These developed models have the potential to solve difficult risk assessment problems. This research paper explores areas in which fuzzy logic models can be used to improve risk assessment and risk decision making. We will discuss the methodology, framework, and process of using fuzzy logic systems in risk assessment.
The article is dedicated to the analysis of the existing models for assessment based of the fuzzy logic centroid technique. A new Generalized Rectangular Model were developed. Some generalizations of the existing models are offered.
University of Peloponnese（伯罗奔尼撒大学）；Graduate TEI of Western Greece（西希腊技术教育学院）
A new fuzzy method is developed using triangular/trapezoidal fuzzy numbers for evaluating a group's mean performance, when qualitative grades instead of numerical scores are used for assessing its members' individual performance. Also, a new technique is developed for solving Linear Programming problems with fuzzy coefficients and everyday life applications are presented to illustrate our results.
Graduate Technological Educational Institute (T. E. I.) of Western Greece（西希腊研究生技术教育学院）
In an earlier work we have used the Triangular Fuzzy Numbers (TFNs)as an assessment tool of student skills.This approach led to an approximate linguistic characterization of the students' overall performance, but it was not proved to be sufficient in all cases for comparing the performance of two different student groups, since tywo TFNs are not always comparable. In the present paper we complete the above fuzzy assessment approach by presenting a defuzzification method of TFNS based on the Center of Gravity (COG) technique, which enables the required comparison. In addition we extend our resu…
Mazandaran Regional Electric Company（马赞达兰地区电力公司）；State University of New York at Binghamton（纽约州立大学宾汉姆顿分校）；University of Hawaii at Manoa（夏威夷大学马诺阿分校）；University of Nebraska（内布拉斯加大学）；Mapna Turbine Engineering and Manufacturing Company（Mapna涡轮工程与制造公司）
Reliability assessment of distribution system, based on historical data and probabilistic methods, leads to an unreliable estimation of reliability indices since the data for the distribution components are usually inaccurate or unavailable. Fuzzy logic is an efficient method to deal with the uncertainty in reliability inputs. In this paper, the ENS index along with other commonly used indices in reliability assessment are evaluated for the distribution system using fuzzy logic. Accordingly, the influential variables on the failure rate and outage duration time of the distribution components, …
Fuzzy logic is an alternate approach for quantifying uncertainty relating to activity duration. The fuzzy version of the backward recursion has been shown to produce results that incorrectly amplify the level of uncertainty. However, the fuzzy version of the forward recursion has been widely proposed as an approach for determining the fuzzy set of critical path lengths. In this paper, the direct application of the extension principle leads to a proposition that must be satisfied in fuzzy critical path analysis. Using a counterexample it is demonstrated that the fuzzy forward recursion when dis…
This study, fundamentals of fuzzy block theory, and its application in assessment of stability in underground openings, has surveyed. Using fuzzy topics and inserting them in to key block theory, in two ways, fundamentals of fuzzy block theory has been presented. In indirect combining, by coupling of adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (NFIS) and classic block theory, we could extract possible damage parts around a tunnel. In direct solution, some principles of block theory, by means of different fuzzy facets theory, were rewritten.
Graduate Technological Educational Institute (T. E. I.) of Western Greece（西希腊技术与教育学院）
Contract bridge occupies nowadays a position of great prestige being, together with chess, the only mind games officially recognized by the International Olympic Committee. In the present paper an innovative method for assessing the total performance of bridge- players' belonging to groups of special interest(e.g. different bridge clubs during a tournament, men and women, new and old players, etc) is introduced, which is based on principles of fuzzy logic. For this, the cohorts under assessment are represented as fuzzy subsets of a set of linguistic labels characterizing their performance and …
Mutah University（穆塔大学）；Eotvos Lorand University（厄特沃什·罗兰大学）；University of California Riverside（加州大学河滨分校）；King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology（阿卜杜勒阿齐兹国王科技城）
The classic win-win has a key flaw in that it cannot offer the parties the right amounts of winning because each party believes they are winners. In reality, one party may win more than the other. This strategy is not limited to a single product or negotiation; it may be applied to a variety of situations in life. We present a novel way to measure the win-win situation in this paper. The proposed method employs Fuzzy logic to create a mathematical model that aids negotiators in quantifying their winning percentages. The model is put to the test on real-life negotiations scenarios such as the I…
Trapeznikov Institute of Control Science Russian Academy of Sciences（俄罗斯科学院特拉佩兹尼科夫控制科学研究所）
The concept of a fuzzy number is generalized to the case of a finite carrier set of partially ordered elements, more precisely, a lattice, when a membership function also takes values in a partially ordered set (a lattice). Zadeh's extension principle for determining the degree of membership of a function of fuzzy numbers is corrected for this generalization. An analogue of the concept of mean value is also suggested. The use of partially ordered values in cognitive maps with comparison of expert assessments is considered.
ff4ERA: A new Fuzzy Framework for Ethical Risk Assessment in AI
Department of Computer Science（计算机科学系）；Centro Interdipartimentale di Logica e Applicazioni (CILA)（逻辑与应用跨部门中心（CILA））；Department of Life, Health and Environmental Sciences（生命、健康与环境科学系）
Prognostics aid in the longevity of fielded systems or products. Quantifying the system's current health enable prognosis to enhance the operator's decision-making to preserve the system's health. Creating a prognosis for a system can be difficult due to (a) unknown physical relationships and/or (b) irregularities in data appearing well beyond the initiation of a problem. Traditionally, three different modeling paradigms have been used to develop a prognostics model: physics-based (PbM), data-driven (DDM), and hybrid modeling. Recently, the hybrid modeling approach that combines the strength o…
A major aspect of human reasoning involves the use of approximations. Particularly in situations where the decision-making process is under stringent time constraints, decisions are based largely on approximate, qualitative assessments of the situations. Our work is concerned with the application of approximate reasoning to real-time control. Because of the stringent processing speed requirements in such applications, hardware implementations of fuzzy logic inferencing are being pursued. We describe a programming environment for translating fuzzy control rules into hardware realizations. Two m…
A Fuzzy Approach to the Specification, Verification and Validation of Risk-Based Ethical Decision Making Models
Dept. of Informatics, University of Bari ``Aldo Moro'', Bari, Italy（信息学院，巴勒莫大学，意大利）；Centro Interdipartimentale di Logica e Applicazioni (CILA), University of Bari ``Aldo Moro'', Bari, Italy（逻辑与应用研究中心（CILA），巴勒莫大学，意大利）
National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST)（国立科技大学（NUST））
This paper models a decision support system to predict the occurance of suicide attack in a given collection of cities. The system comprises two parts. First part analyzes and identifies the factors which affect the prediction. Admitting incomplete information and use of linguistic terms by experts, as two characteristic features of this peculiar prediction problem we exploit the Theory of Fuzzy Soft Sets. Hence the Part 2 of the model is an algorithm vz. FSP which takes the assessment of factors given in Part 1 as its input and produces a possibility profile of cities likely to receive the ac…
National University of Tainan（台南大学）；Tokyo Metropolitan University（东京都立大学）；Haifong Weiqi Academy（海峰围棋学院）
In this paper, we demonstrate the application of Fuzzy Markup Language (FML) to construct an FML-based Dynamic Assessment Agent (FDAA), and we present an FML-based Human-Machine Cooperative System (FHMCS) for the game of Go. The proposed FDAA comprises an intelligent decision-making and learning mechanism, an intelligent game bot, a proximal development agent, and an intelligent agent. The intelligent game bot is based on the open-source code of Facebook Darkforest, and it features a representational state transfer application programming interface mechanism. The proximal development agent con…
Sharif University of Technology（谢里夫理工大学）；University of Neyshabur（内沙布尔大学）；Kharazmi University（哈拉兹米大学）；Azad University of Mashhad（马什哈德阿扎德大学）
In recent years, descriptive evaluation has been introduced as a new model for educational evaluation of Iranian students. The current descriptive evaluation method is based on four-valued logic. Assessing all students with only four values is led to a lack of relative justice and the creation of unrealistic equality. Also, the complexity of the evaluation process in the current method increases teacher errors likelihood. As a suitable solution, in this paper, a fuzzy descriptive evaluation system has been proposed. The proposed method is based on fuzzy logic, which is an infinite-valued logic…
Ghent University（根特大学）；University of Catania（卡塔尼亚大学）；University of Portsmouth（朴茨茅斯大学）；Poznań University of Technology（波兹南理工大学）；Polish Academy of Sciences（波兰科学院）
Inconsistency in prediction problems occurs when instances that relate in a certain way on condition attributes, do not follow the same relation on the decision attribute. For example, in ordinal classification with monotonicity constraints, it occurs when an instance dominating another instance on condition attributes has been assigned to a worse decision class. It typically appears as a result of perturbation in data caused by incomplete knowledge (missing attributes) or by random effects that occur during data generation (instability in the assessment of decision attribute values). Inconsis…
fEDM+: A Risk-Based Fuzzy Ethical Decision Making Framework with Principle-Level Explainability and Pluralistic Validation
Dept. of Informatics, University of Bari ``Aldo Moro'', Bari, Italy（信息学院，巴里阿尔多·莫罗大学）；Centro Interdipartimentale di Logica e Applicazioni (CILA), University of Bari ``Aldo Moro'', Bari, Italy（逻辑与应用跨部门中心（CILA），巴里阿尔多·莫罗大学）
Hong Kong University of Science and Tech.（香港科技大学）；Vanderbilt University（范德堡大学）
The block design test is a standardized, widely used neuropsychological assessment of visuospatial reasoning that involves a person recreating a series of given designs out of a set of colored blocks. In current testing procedures, an expert neuropsychologist observes a person's accuracy and completion time as well as overall impressions of the person's problem-solving procedures, errors, etc., thus obtaining a holistic though subjective and often qualitative view of the person's cognitive processes. We propose a new framework that combines room sensors and AI techniques to augment the informa…
University of Waterloo（滑铁卢大学）；Waterloo Artificial Intelligence Institute（滑铁卢人工智能研究所）；DarwinAI Corp.（DarwinAI公司）
The quantitative analysis of information structure through a deep neural network (DNN) can unveil new insights into the theoretical performance of DNN architectures. Two very promising avenues of research towards quantitative information structure analysis are: 1) layer similarity (LS) strategies focused on the inter-layer feature similarity, and 2) intrinsic dimensionality (ID) strategies focused on layer-wise data dimensionality using pairwise information. Inspired by both LS and ID strategies for quantitative information structure analysis, we introduce two novel complimentary methods for i…
AI WALKUP: A Computer-Vision Approach to Quantifying MDS-UPDRS in Parkinson's Disease
Key Lab of Image Processing and Intelligent Control, Ministry of Education（教育部图像处理与智能控制重点实验室）；School of Artificial Intelligence and Automation（人工智能与自动化学院）；Huazhong University of Science and Technology（华中科技大学）
Quantifying Impairment and Disease Severity Using AI Models Trained on Healthy Subjects
Center for Data Science, New York University（纽约大学数据科学中心）；NYU Grossman School of Medicine（纽约大学格罗斯曼医学院）；Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, NYU（纽约大学柯朗数学科学研究所）
UC San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Northeastern University（东北大学）
Deep learning is gaining increasing popularity for spatiotemporal forecasting. However, prior works have mostly focused on point estimates without quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. In high stakes domains, being able to generate probabilistic forecasts with confidence intervals is critical to risk assessment and decision making. Hence, a systematic study of uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for spatiotemporal forecasting is missing in the community. In this paper, we describe two types of spatiotemporal forecasting problems: regular grid-based and graph-based. Then we analyz…
