基于近似模型的反事实与福利分析
Counterfactual and Welfare Analysis with an Approximate Model
摘要：
我们提出了一个概念框架，近似模型的反事实和福利分析。我们的关键假设是，模型近似误差是相同的幅度在新的选择作为观测数据。应用该框架的准线性效用，我们得到的数量在新的价格使用近似的需求规律的界限。然后，我们绑定捆绑和价格之间的福利差异的效用差异。所有的边界都可以作为线性规划来计算。我们提供了详细的分析结果，描述了数据如何映射到边界，包括形状的限制，插件估计提供了基础。汽油需求的应用说明了方法。
英文摘要：
We propose a conceptual framework for counterfactual and welfare analysis for approximate models. Our key assumption is that model approximation error is the same magnitude at new choices as the observed data. Applying the framework to quasilinear utility, we obtain bounds on quantities at new prices using an approximate law of demand. We then bound utility differences between bundles and welfare differences between prices. All bounds are computable as linear programs. We provide detailed analytical results describing how the data map to the bounds including shape restrictions that provide a foundation for plug-in estimation. An application to gasoline demand illustrates the methodology.
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