Portfolio management is essential for any investment decision. Yet, traditional methods in the literature are ill-suited for the characteristics and dynamics of cryptocurrencies. This work presents a method to build an investment portfolio consisting of more than 1500 cryptocurrencies covering 6 years of market data. It is centred around Topological Data Analysis (TDA), a recent approach to analyze data sets from the perspective of their topological structure. This publication proposes a system combining persistence landscapes to identify suitable investment opportunities in cryptocurrencies. Using a novel and comprehensive data set of cryptocurrency prices, this research shows that the proposed system enables analysts to outperform a classic method from the literature without requiring any feature engineering or domain knowledge in TDA. This work thus introduces TDA-based portfolio management of cryptocurrencies as a viable tool for the practitioner.
This research mainly explores the characteristics of different strategies and whether VIX INDEX positively influences the investment portfolio in any period. Our portfolio has six significant cryptocurrencies, VIX INDEX and gold. We perform parameter estimation on all raw data and bring the two types into different investment strategies, complete them effectively according to other characteristics, and compare the results. At the same time, we make two different portfolios, one contains VIX INDEX, and one does not have VIX INDEX. We use different portfolios in different portfolio strategies an…
Cryptocurrencies (CCs) have risen rapidly in market capitalization over the last years. Despite striking price volatility, their high average returns have drawn attention to CCs as alternative investment assets for portfolio and risk management. We investigate the utility gains for different types of investors when they consider cryptocurrencies as an addition to their portfolio of traditional assets. We consider risk-averse, return-seeking as well as diversificationpreferring investors who trade along different allocation frequencies, namely daily, weekly or monthly. Out-of-sample performance…
In recent years, cryptocurrencies have gone from an obscure niche to a prominent place, with investment in these assets becoming increasingly popular. However, cryptocurrencies carry a high risk due to their high volatility. In this paper, criteria based on historical cryptocurrency data are defined in order to characterize returns and risks in different ways, in short time windows (7 and 15 days); then, the importance of criteria is analyzed by various methods and their impact is evaluated. Finally, the future plan is projected to use the knowledge obtained for the selection of investment por…
There is a great number of factors to take into account when building and managing an investment portfolio. It is widely believed that a proper set-up of the portfolio combined with a good, robust management strategy is the key to successful investment. In this paper, we aim at an analysis of two aspects that may have an impact on investment performance: diversity of assets and inclusion of cash in the portfolio. We also propose two new management strategies based on the MACD and RSI factors known from technical analysis. Monte Carlo simulations within the Heston model of a market are used to …
Solving portfolio management problems using deep reinforcement learning has been getting much attention in finance for a few years. We have proposed a new method using experts signals and historical price data to feed into our reinforcement learning framework. Although experts signals have been used in previous works in the field of finance, as far as we know, it is the first time this method, in tandem with deep RL, is used to solve the financial portfolio management problem. Our proposed framework consists of a convolutional network for aggregating signals, another convolutional network for …
Machine Learning algorithms and Neural Networks are widely applied to many different areas such as stock market prediction, face recognition and population analysis. This paper will introduce a strategy based on the classic Deep Reinforcement Learning algorithm, Deep Q-Network, for portfolio management in stock market. It is a type of deep neural network which is optimized by Q Learning. To make the DQN adapt to financial market, we first discretize the action space which is defined as the weight of portfolio in different assets so that portfolio management becomes a problem that Deep Q-Networ…
Peking University（北京大学）；School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University（北京大学数学科学学院）；LMEQF
We develop a novel approach to explain why AdaBoost is a successful classifier. By introducing a measure of the influence of the noise points (ION) in the training data for the binary classification problem, we prove that there is a strong connection between the ION and the test error. We further identify that the ION of AdaBoost decreases as the iteration number or the complexity of the base learners increases. We confirm that it is impossible to obtain a consistent classifier without deep trees as the base learners of AdaBoost in some complicated situations. We apply AdaBoost in portfolio ma…
GERAD & Department of Decision Sciences, HEC Montréal（蒙特利尔高等商学院决策科学系与GERAD联合机构）；Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa（渥太华大学特尔弗管理学院）；Evovest（伊沃维斯特）
The problem of portfolio management represents an important and challenging class of dynamic decision making problems, where rebalancing decisions need to be made over time with the consideration of many factors such as investors preferences, trading environments, and market conditions. In this paper, we present a new portfolio policy network architecture for deep reinforcement learning (DRL)that can exploit more effectively cross-asset dependency information and achieve better performance than state-of-the-art architectures. In particular, we introduce a new property, referred to as \textit{a…
In this paper, we implement three state-of-art continuous reinforcement learning algorithms, Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Policy Gradient (PG)in portfolio management. All of them are widely-used in game playing and robot control. What's more, PPO has appealing theoretical propeties which is hopefully potential in portfolio management. We present the performances of them under different settings, including different learning rates, objective functions, feature combinations, in order to provide insights for parameters tuning, features selectio…
One of the reasons that higher order moment portfolio optimization methods are not fully used by practitioners in investment decisions is the complexity that these higher moments create by making the optimization problem nonconvex. Many few methods and theoretical results exists in the literature, but the present paper uses the method of successive convex approximation for the mean-variance-skewness problem.
Portfolio management problems are often divided into two types: active and passive, where the objective is to outperform and track a preselected benchmark, respectively. Here, we formulate and solve a dynamic asset allocation problem that combines these two objectives in a unified framework. We look to maximize the expected growth rate differential between the wealth of the investor's portfolio and that of a performance benchmark while penalizing risk-weighted deviations from a given tracking portfolio. Using stochastic control techniques, we provide explicit closed-form expressions for the op…
The investment economy is a main characteristic of prosperous society. The investment portfolio management is a main financial problem, which has to be solved by the investment, commercial and central banks with the application of modern portfolio theory in the investment economy. We use the learning analytics together with the integrative creative imperative intelligent conceptual co-lateral adaptive thinking with the purpose to advance our scientific knowledge on the diversified investment portfolio management in the nonlinear dynamic financial system. We apply the econophysics principles an…
This work proposes a novel portfolio management technique, the Meta Portfolio Method (MPM), inspired by the successes of meta approaches in the field of bioinformatics and elsewhere. The MPM uses XGBoost to learn how to switch between two risk-based portfolio allocation strategies, the Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) and more classical Naïve Risk Parity (NRP). It is demonstrated that the MPM is able to successfully take advantage of the best characteristics of each strategy (the NRP's fast growth during market uptrends, and the HRP's protection against drawdowns during market turmoil). As a res…
It is widely known that the common risk-factors derived from PCA beyond the first eigenportfolio are generally difficult to interpret and thus to use in practical portfolio management. We explore a alternative approach (HPCA) which makes strong use of the partition of the market into sectors. We show that this approach leads to no loss of information with respect to PCA in the case of equities (constituents of the S&P 500) and also that the associated common factors admit simple interpretations. The model can also be used in markets in which the sectors have asynchronous price information, suc…
This paper introduces a new functional optimization approach to portfolio optimization problems by treating the unknown weight vector as a function of past values instead of treating them as fixed unknown coefficients in the majority of studies. We first show that the optimal solution, in general, is not a constant function. We give the optimal conditions for a vector function to be the solution, and hence give the conditions for a plug-in solution (replacing the unknown mean and variance by certain estimates based on past values) to be optimal. After showing that the plug-in solutions are sub…
We give a detailed account of correlations between credit sector/quality and treasury curve factors, using the robust framework of the Barclays POINT Global Risk Model. Consistent with earlier studies, we find a strong negative correlation between sector spreads and rate shifts. However, we also observe that the correlations between spreads and Treasury twists reversed recently, which is likely attributable to the Fed's ongoing quantitative easing. We also find that short-term effective durations in the banking industry are now significantly lower than historical patterns would indicate. Our f…
In this paper, we document a novel machine learning based bottom-up approach for static and dynamic portfolio optimization on, potentially, a large number of assets. The methodology applies to general constrained optimization problems and overcomes many major difficulties arising in current optimization schemes. Taking mean-variance optimization as an example, we no longer need to compute the covariance matrix and its inverse, therefore the method is immune from the estimation error on this quantity. Moreover, no explicit calls of optimization routines are needed. Applications to equity portfo…
This paper describes multi-portfolio `internal' rebalancing processes used in the finance industry. Instead of trading with the market to `externally' rebalance, these internal processes detail how portfolio managers buy and sell between their portfolios to rebalance. We give an overview of currently used internal rebalancing processes, including one known as the `banker' process and another known as the `linear' process. We prove the banker process disadvantages the nominated banker portfolio in volatile markets, while the linear process may advantage or disadvantage portfolios. We describe a…
University of Agder（阿格德大学）；SpareBank 1 SR-Bank（SpareBank 1 SR银行）
Stock portfolio optimization is the process of continuous reallocation of funds to a selection of stocks. This is a particularly well-suited problem for reinforcement learning, as daily rewards are compounding and objective functions may include more than just profit, e.g., risk and sustainability. We developed a novel utility function with the Sharpe ratio representing risk and the environmental, social, and governance score (ESG) representing sustainability. We show that a state-of-the-art policy gradient method - multi-agent deep deterministic policy gradients (MADDPG) - fails to find the o…
Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has been widely studied in the portfolio management task. However, it is challenging to understand a DRL-based trading strategy because of the black-box nature of deep neural networks. In this paper, we propose an empirical approach to explain the strategies of DRL agents for the portfolio management task. First, we use a linear model in hindsight as the reference model, which finds the best portfolio weights by assuming knowing actual stock returns in foresight. In particular, we use the coefficients of a linear model in hindsight as the reference feature wei…
Managing investment portfolios is an old and well know problem in multiple fields including financial mathematics and financial engineering as well as econometrics and econophysics. Multiple different concepts and theories were used so far to describe methods of handling with financial assets, including differential equations, stochastic calculus and advanced statistics. In this paper, using a set of tools from the probability theory, various strategies of building financial portfolios are analysed in different market conditions. A special attention is given to several realisations of a so cal…
Traditional portfolio management methods can incorporate specific investor preferences but rely on accurate forecasts of asset returns and covariances. Reinforcement learning (RL) methods do not rely on these explicit forecasts and are better suited for multi-stage decision processes. To address limitations of the evaluated research, experiments were conducted on three markets in different economies with different overall trends. By incorporating specific investor preferences into our RL models' reward functions, a more comprehensive comparison could be made to traditional methods in risk-retu…
The basic financial purpose of an enterprise is maximization of its value. Trade credit management should also contribute to realization of this fundamental aim. Many of the current asset management models that are found in financial management literature assume book profit maximization as the basic financial purpose. These book profitbased models could be lacking in what relates to another aim (i.e., maximization of enterprise value). The enterprise value maximization strategy is executed with a focus on risk and uncertainty. This article presents the consequences that can result from operati…
With the improvement of computer performance and the development of GPU-accelerated technology, trading with machine learning algorithms has attracted the attention of many researchers and practitioners. In this research, we propose a novel portfolio management strategy based on the framework of Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient, a policy-based reinforcement learning framework, and compare its performance to that of other trading strategies. In our framework, two Long Short-Term Memory neural networks and two fully connected neural networks are constructed. We also investigate the performance…
We study the Merton problem of optimal consumption-investment for the case of two investors sharing a final wealth. The typical example would be a husband and wife sharing a portfolio looking to optimize the expected utility of consumption and final wealth. Each agent has different utility function and discount factor. An explicit formulation for the optimal consumptions and portfolio can be obtained in the case of a complete market. The problem is shown to be equivalent to maximizing three different utilities separately with separate initial wealths. We study a numerical example where the mar…
This paper proposes a dynamic process of portfolio risk measurement to address potential information loss. The proposed model takes advantage of financial big data to incorporate out-of-target-portfolio information that may be missed when one considers the Value at Risk (VaR) measures only from certain assets of the portfolio. We investigate how the curse of dimensionality can be overcome in the use of financial big data and discuss where and when benefits occur from a large number of assets. In this regard, the proposed approach is the first to suggest the use of financial big data to improve…
We propose a long term portfolio management method which takes into account a liability. Our approach is based on the LQG (Linear, Quadratic cost, Gaussian) control problem framework and then the optimal portfolio strategy hedges the liability by directly tracking a benchmark process which represents the liability. Two numerical results using empirical data published by Japanese organizations are served: simulations tracking an artificial liability and an estimated liability of Japanese organization. The latter one demonstrates that our optimal portfolio strategy can hedge his or her liability…
We prove that the Omega measure, which considers all moments when assessing portfolio performance, is equivalent to the widely used Sharpe ratio under jointly elliptic distributions of returns. Portfolio optimization of the Sharpe ratio is then explored, with an active-set algorithm presented for markets prohibiting short sales. When asymmetric returns are considered we show that the Omega measure and Sharpe ratio lead to different optimal portfolios.
Financial portfolio management is the process of constant redistribution of a fund into different financial products. This paper presents a financial-model-free Reinforcement Learning framework to provide a deep machine learning solution to the portfolio management problem. The framework consists of the Ensemble of Identical Independent Evaluators (EIIE) topology, a Portfolio-Vector Memory (PVM), an Online Stochastic Batch Learning (OSBL) scheme, and a fully exploiting and explicit reward function. This framework is realized in three instants in this work with a Convolutional Neural Network (C…
With the good development in the financial industry, the market starts to catch people's eyes, not only by the diversified investing choices ranging from bonds and stocks to futures and options but also by the general "high-risk, high-reward" mindset prompting people to put money in the financial market. People are interested in reducing risk at a given level of return since there is no way of having both high returns and low risk. Many researchers have been studying this issue, and the most pioneering one is Harry Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory developed in 1952, which is the cornerstone…
Return-risk models are the two pillars of modern portfolio theory, which are widely used to make decisions in choosing the loan portfolio of a bank. Banks and other financial institutions are subjected to limited liability protection. However, in most of the model formulation, limited liability is not taken into consideration. Accordingly, to address this, we have, in this article, analyzed the effect of including it in the model formulation. We formulate four models, two of them are maximizing the expected return with risk constraint, including and excluding limited-liability, and other two a…
