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arXiv 2008.13082q-fin.MF
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亚式期权的非参数预测推断

Nonparametric Predictive Inference for Asian options

Ting He

摘要:

亚式期权作为一种路径依赖的奇异期权,在能源市场上被广泛交易,无论是投机还是套期保值。然而,它很难定价,特别是算术平均价格。传统的交易程序要么是过于严格的假设基础资产的分布或不严格的使用近似。在对标的资产分布假设较少的情况下,采用非参数的方法来估计亚式期权的价格是一种很有吸引力的方法。在本文中,我们提出了一种新的方法来定价的亚式期权从一个不精确的统计方面。非参数预测推理(NPI)用于预测标的资产未来价格的平均值,由于信息的有限性,试图使预测反映更多的不确定性。本文还提出了一个理性的成对交易准则,用于亚式期权的比较,作为风险度量。利用模拟技术和能源市场的经验数据,给出了亚式期权的NPI方法。

英文摘要:

Asian option, as one of the path-dependent exotic options, is widely traded in the energy market, either for speculation or hedging. However, it is hard to price, especially the one with the arithmetic average price. The traditional trading procedure is either too restrictive by assuming the distribution of the underlying asset or less rigorous by using the approximation. It is attractive to infer the Asian option price with few assumptions of the underlying asset distribution and adopt to the historical data with a nonparametric method. In this paper, we present a novel approach to price the Asian option from an imprecise statistical aspect. Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI) is applied to infer the average value of the future underlying asset price, which attempts to make the prediction reflecting more uncertainty because of the limited information. A rational pairwise trading criterion is also proposed in this paper for the Asian options comparison, as a risk measure. The NPI method for the Asian option is illustrated in several examples by using the simulation techniques or the empirical data from the energy market.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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