红细胞成分短期需求预测与订购的决策集成策略
A decision integration strategy for short-term demand forecasting and ordering for red blood cell components
摘要：
输血是世界范围内最重要和最常用的治疗方法之一。需要更准确和有效的方法来管理血液需求和供应，这是一个日益令人关切的问题。建立一个以技术为基础的、强大的血液需求和供应链，以实现降低订购频率、库存水平、浪费和短缺的目标，同时保持血液使用的安全性，是现代医疗系统的关键。在这项研究中，我们总结了当前红细胞（RBC）需求和供应管理的主要挑战。我们结合统计时间序列建模，机器学习和运筹学的思想，通过整合一个混合的需求预测模型，使用临床预测和数据驱动的多周期库存问题，考虑库存和再订购的限制，在开发的RBC的订购决策策略。我们使用2008年至2018年的大型临床数据库，将综合订购策略应用于安大略省汉密尔顿的血液库存管理系统。所提出的混合需求预测模型提供了稳健和准确的预测，并确定了短期RBC需求预测的重要临床预测因素。与实际历史数据相比，我们的集成订购策略将库存水平降低了40%，订购频率降低了60%，并且由于过期而导致的短缺和浪费的发生率很低。如果成功实施，我们提出的战略可以为医疗保健系统和血液供应商节省大量成本。所提出的订购策略是可推广到其他血液制品，甚至其他易腐产品。
英文摘要：
Blood transfusion is one of the most crucial and commonly administered therapeutics worldwide. The need for more accurate and efficient ways to manage blood demand and supply is an increasing concern. Building a technology-based, robust blood demand and supply chain that can achieve the goals of reducing ordering frequency, inventory level, wastage and shortage, while maintaining the safety of blood usage, is essential in modern healthcare systems. In this study, we summarize the key challenges in current demand and supply management for red blood cells (RBCs). We combine ideas from statistical time series modeling, machine learning, and operations research in developing an ordering decision strategy for RBCs, through integrating a hybrid demand forecasting model using clinical predictors and a data-driven multi-period inventory problem considering inventory and reorder constraints. We have applied the integrated ordering strategy to the blood inventory management system in Hamilton, Ontario using a large clinical database from 2008 to 2018. The proposed hybrid demand forecasting model provides robust and accurate predictions, and identifies important clinical predictors for short-term RBC demand forecasting. Compared with the actual historical data, our integrated ordering strategy reduces the inventory level by 40% and decreases the ordering frequency by 60%, with low incidence of shortages and wastage due to expiration. If implemented successfully, our proposed strategy can achieve significant cost savings for healthcare systems and blood suppliers. The proposed ordering strategy is generalizable to other blood products or even other perishable products.
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