arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2002.02805eess.SPcs.LGstat.ML

Short Term Blood Glucose Prediction based on Continuous Glucose Monitoring Data

Technical University of Denmark(丹麦技术大学);Novo Nordisk A/S(诺和诺德)

Ali Mohebbi, Alexander R. Johansen, Nicklas Hansen, Peter E. Christensen, Jens M. Tarp, Morten L. Jensen, Henrik Bengtsson, Morten Mørup

英文摘要:

Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) has enabled important opportunities for diabetes management. This study explores the use of CGM data as input for digital decision support tools. We investigate how Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) can be used for Short Term Blood Glucose (STBG) prediction and compare the RNNs to conventional time-series forecasting using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). A prediction horizon up to 90 min into the future is considered. In this context, we evaluate both population-based and patient-specific RNNs and contrast them to patient-specific ARIMA models and a simple baseline predicting future observations as the last observed. We find that the population-based RNN model is the best performing model across the considered prediction horizons without the need of patient-specific data. This demonstrates the potential of RNNs for STBG prediction in diabetes patients towards detecting/mitigating severe events in the STBG, in particular hypoglycemic events. However, further studies are needed in regards to the robustness and practical use of the investigated STBG prediction models.

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