An early warning system for electromagnetic follow-up of gravitational-wave events
Surabhi Sachdev, Ryan Magee, Chad Hanna, Kipp Cannon, Leo Singer, Javed Rana SK, Debnandini Mukherjee, Sarah Caudill, Chiwai Chan, Jolien D. E. Creighton, Becca… 展开作者
Surabhi Sachdev, Ryan Magee, Chad Hanna, Kipp Cannon, Leo Singer, Javed Rana SK, Debnandini Mukherjee, Sarah Caudill, Chiwai Chan, Jolien D. E. Creighton, Becca Ewing, Heather Fong, Patrick Godwin, Rachael Huxford, Shasvath Kapadia, Alvin K. Y. Li, Rico Ka Lok Lo, Duncan Meacher, Cody Messick, Siddharth R. Mohite, Atsushi Nishizawa, Hiroaki Ohta, Alexander Pace, Amit Reza, B. S. Sathyaprakash, Minori Shikauchi, Divya Singh, Leo Tsukada, Daichi Tsuna, Takuya Tsutsui, Koh Ueno
备注：
small update in numbers caused by using a more updated local BNS rate estimate
Binary neutron stars (BNSs) will spend $\simeq 10$ -- 15 minutes in the band of Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors at design sensitivity. Matched-filtering of gravitational-wave (GW) data could in principle accumulate enough signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) to identify a forthcoming event tens of seconds before the companions collide and merge. Here we report on the design and testing of an early warning gravitational-wave detection pipeline. Early warning alerts can be produced for sources that are at low enough redshift so that a large enough SNR accumulates $\sim 10 - 60\,\rm s$ before merger. We find that about 7% (respectively, 49%) of the total detectable BNS mergers will be detected $60\, \rm s$ ($10\, \rm s$) before the merger. About 2% of the total detectable BNS mergers will be detected before merger and localized to within $100\, \rm \text{deg}^2$ (90% credible interval). Coordinated observing by several wide-field telescopes could capture the event seconds before or after the merger. LIGO-Virgo detectors at design sensitivity could facilitate observing at least one event at the onset of merger.
We investigate the prospects of electromagnetic follow-up observations for binary neutron star (BNS) mergers, with the help of early warnings from decihertz gravitational-wave (GW) observatories, B-DECIGO and DO-Optimal. Extending the previous work, we not only give quick assessments of joint short $γ$-ray burst (sGRB) detection rates for different $γ$-ray satellites and BNS population models, but also elaborate on the analyses and results on multi-band kilonova detections for survey telescopes with different limiting magnitudes. During an assumed 4-year mission time for decihertz GW observato…
Since gravitational and electromagnetic waves from a compact binary coalescence carry independent information about the source, the joint observation is important for understanding the physical mechanisms of the emissions. Rapid detection and source localization of a gravitational wave signal are crucial for the joint observation to be successful. For a signal with a high signal-to-noise ratio, it is even possible to detect it before the merger, which is called early warning. In this letter, we estimate the performances of the early warning for neutron-star black-hole binaries, considering the…
A crucial component to maximizing the science gain from the multi-messenger follow-up of gravitational-wave (GW) signals from compact binary mergers is the prompt discovery of the electromagnetic counterpart. Ideally, the GW detection and localization must be reported early enough to allow for telescopes to slew to the location of the GW-event before the onset of the counterpart. However, the time available for early warning is limited by the short duration spent by the dominant ($\ell = m = 2$) mode within the detector's frequency band. Nevertheless, we show that, including higher modes - whi…
A gravitational-wave (GW) early-warning of a compact-binary coalescence event, with a sufficiently tight localisation skymap, would allow telescopes to point in the direction of the potential electromagnetic counterpart before its onset. This will enable astronomers to extract valuable information of the complex astrophysical phenomena triggered around the time of the merger. Use of higher-modes of gravitational radiation, in addition to the dominant mode typically used in templated real-time searches, was recently shown to produce significant improvements in early-warning times and skyarea lo…
We describe realistic observing scenarios for early warning detection of binary neutron star mergers with the current generation of ground-based gravitational-wave detectors as these approach design sensitivity. Using Fisher analysis, we estimate that Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo will detect one signal before merger in their fourth observing run provided they maintain a 70\% duty cycle. 60\% of all observations and 8\% of those detectable 20 seconds before merger will be localized to $\lesssim 100 \thinspace \mathrm{deg}^2$. If KAGRA is able to achieve a 25 Mpc horizon, these prospects inc…
The discovery of gravitational waves from merging compact objects has opened up a new window to the Universe. Planned third-generation gravitational-wave detectors such as Einstein Telescope will potentially deliver hundreds of such events at redshifts below $z\sim0.1$. Finding electromagnetic counterparts to these events will be a major observational challenge. We demonstrate how Einstein Telescope will provide advance warning of such events on a timescale of hours, based on the low frequency emission from the pre-merger system. In addition, we suggest how this early warning enables prompt id…
Pre-merger gravitational-wave (GW) sky-localisation of binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star black hole (NSBH) coalescence events, would enable telescopes to capture precursors and electromagnetic (EM) emissions around the time of the merger. We propose a novel astrophysical scenario that could provide early-warning times of hours to days before coalescence with sub-arcsecond localisation, provided that these events are gravitationally lensed. The key idea is that if the BNS/NSBH is lensed, then so must the host galaxy identified via the EM counterpart. From the angular separation of the …
The pre-merger (early-warning) gravitational-wave (GW) detection and localization of a compact binary merger would enable astronomers to capture potential electromagnetic (EM) emissions around the time of the merger, thus shedding light on the complex physics of the merger. While early detection and sky localization are of primary importance to the multimessenger follow-up of the event, improved estimates of luminosity distance and orbital inclination could also provide insights on the observability of the EM emission. In this work, we demonstrate that the inclusion of higher modes of gravitat…
The success of the multi-messenger astronomy relies on gravitational-wave observatories like LIGO and Virgo to provide prompt warning of merger events involving neutron stars (including both binary neutron stars and neutron-star-black-holes), which further depends critically on the low-frequency sensitivity of LIGO as a typical binary neutron star stays in this band for minutes. However, the current sub-60 Hz sensitivity of LIGO has not yet reached its design target and the excess noise can be more than an order of magnitude below 20 Hz. It is limited by nonlinearly coupled noises from auxilia…
Gravitational-wave observations became commonplace in Advanced LIGO-Virgo's recently concluded third observing run. 56 non-retracted candidates were identified and publicly announced in near real time. Gravitational waves from binary neutron star mergers, however, remain of special interest since they can be precursors to high-energy astrophysical phenomena like $γ$-ray bursts and kilonovae. While late-time electromagnetic emissions provide important information about the astrophysical processes within, the prompt emission along with gravitational waves uniquely reveals the extreme matter and …
We present the prospects for the early (pre-merger) detection and localization of compact-binary coalescences using gravitational waves over the next 10 years. Early warning can enable the direct observation of the prompt and early electromagnetic emission of a neutron star merger. We examine the capabilities of the ground based detectors at their "Design" sensitivity (2021-2022), the planned "A+" upgrade (2024-2026), and the envisioned "Voyager" concept (late 2020's). We find that for a fiducial rate of binary neutron star mergers of $1000 ~\mathrm{Gpc}^{-3} \mathrm{yr}^{-1}$, the Design, A+,…
We explore the intriguing possibility of employing future ground-based gravitational-wave interferometers to detect the inspiral of binary neutron stars sufficiently early to alert electromagnetic observatories so that a gamma-ray burst (GRB) can be observed in its entirety from its very beginning. We quantify the ability to predict a GRB by computing the time a binary neutron star (BNS) system takes to inspiral from its moment of detection to its final merger. We define the moment of detection to be the instant at which the interferometer network accumulates a signal-to-noise ratio of 15. For…
When two Neutron Stars collide a multi-band electromagnetic emission, known as Kilonova (KN), follows being powered by the radioactive decay of ejecta products. In this contribution we discuss how the equation of state of dense matter, impacts the mass and velocity in the KN ejecta and thus its light curve. Using this information encoded in the stellar mass-radius relationship, we ellaborate on how the future experimental observations in photon channels, in addition to complementary multimessenger probes, could provide a new and more detailed insight into the equation of state of nuclear matte…
The next core-collapse supernova in the Milky Way or its satellites will represent a once-in-a-generation opportunity to obtain detailed information about the explosion of a star and provide significant scientific insight for a variety of fields because of the extreme conditions found within. Supernovae in our galaxy are not only rare on a human timescale but also happen at unscheduled times, so it is crucial to be ready and use all available instruments to capture all possible information from the event. The first indication of a potential stellar explosion will be the arrival of a bright bur…
We investigate the prospects for joint low-latency gravitational wave (GW) detection and prompt electromagnetic (EM) follow-up observations of coalescing binary neutron stars (BNSs). For BNS mergers associated with short duration gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs), we for the first time evaluate the feasibility of rapid EM follow-ups to capture the prompt emission, early engine activity or reveal any potential by-products such as magnetars or fast radio bursts. To achieve our goal, we first simulate a population of coalescing BNSs using realistic distributions of source parameters and estimate the detec…
Among the most eagerly anticipated opportunities made possible by Advanced LIGO/Virgo are multimessenger observations of compact mergers. Optical counterparts may be short-lived so rapid characterization of gravitational wave (GW) events is paramount for discovering electromagnetic signatures. One way to meet the demand for rapid GW parameter estimation is to trade off accuracy for speed, using waveform models with simplified treatment of the compact objects' spin. We report on the systematic errors in GW parameter estimation suffered when using different spin approximations to recover generic…
The question "what is the observable electromagnetic (EM) signature of a compact binary merger?" is an intriguing one with crucial consequences to the quest for gravitational waves (GW). Compact binary mergers are prime sources of GW, targeted by current and next generation detectors. Numerical simulations have demonstrated that these mergers eject energetic sub-relativistic (or even relativistic) outflows. This is certainly the case if the mergers produce short GRBs, but even if not, significant outflows are expected. The interaction of such outflows with the surround matter inevitably leads …
Pioneering efforts aiming at the development of multi-messenger gravitational wave and electromagnetic astronomy have been made. An electromagnetic observation follow-up program of candidate gravitational wave events has been performed (Dec 17 2009 to Jan 8 2010 and Sep 4 to Oct 20 2010) during the recent runs of the LIGO and Virgo gravitational wave detectors. It involved ground-based and space electromagnetic facilities observing the sky at optical, X-ray and radio wavelengths. The joint gravitational wave and electromagnetic observation study requires the development of specific image analy…
A pioneering electromagnetic (EM) observation follow-up program of candidate gravitational wave (GW) triggers has been performed, Dec 17 2009 to Jan 8 2010 and Sep 4 to Oct 20 2010, during the recent LIGO/Virgo run. The follow-up program involved ground-based and space EM facilities observing the sky at optical, X-ray and radio wavelengths. The joint GW/EM observation study requires the development of specific image analysis procedures able to discriminate the possible EM counterpart of GW trigger from background events. The paper shows an overview of the EM follow-up program and the developin…
We present the Gravitational Wave Treasure Map, a tool to coordinate, visualize, and assess the electromagnetic follow-up of gravitational wave (GW) events. With typical GW localization regions of hundreds to thousands of square degrees and dozens of active follow-up groups, the pursuit of electromagnetic (EM) counterparts is a challenging endeavor, but the scientific payoff for early discovery of any counterpart is clear. With this tool, we provide a website and API interface that allows users to easily see where other groups have searched and better inform their own follow-up search efforts.…
We investigate joint low-latency gravitational wave (GW) detection and prompt electromagnetic (EM) follow-up observations of coalescing binary neutron stars (BNSs). Assuming that BNS mergers are associated with short duration gamma ray bursts (SGRBs), we evaluate if rapid EM follow-ups can capture the prompt emission, early engine activity or reveal any potential by-products such as magnetars or fast radio bursts. To examine the expected performance of extreme low-latency search pipelines, we simulate a population of coalescing BNSs and use these to estimate the detectability and localisation …
Neutron star binaries, which are among the most promising sources for the direct detection of gravitational waves (GW) by ground based detectors, are also potential electromagnetic (EM) emitters. Gravitational waves will provide a new window to observe these events and hopefully give us glimpses of new astrophysics. In this paper, we discuss how EM information of these events can considerably improve GW parameter estimation both in terms of accuracy and computational power requirement. And then in return how GW sky localization can help EM astronomers in follow-up studies of sources which did …
The first direct detection of gravitational waves was made in late 2015 with the Advanced LIGO detectors. By prior arrangement, a worldwide collaboration of electromagnetic follow-up observers were notified of candidate gravitational wave events during the first science run, and many facilities were engaged in the search for counterparts. No counterparts were identified, which is in line with expectations given that the events were classified as black hole - black hole mergers. However these searches laid the foundation for similar follow-up campaigns in future gravitational wave detector scie…
Galaxy catalogs are essential for efficient searches of the electromagnetic counterparts of extragalactic gravitational-wave (GW) signals with highly uncertain localization. We show that one can efficiently catalog galaxies within a short period of time with 1-2 meter-class telescopes such as the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF) or MDM, in response to an observed GW signal from a compact binary coalescence. We find that a rapid galaxy survey is feasible on the relevant time scale of $\lesssim 1$ week, maximum source distance of $>200$ Mpc and sky area of 100 deg$^2$. With PTF-like telescopes, e…
We present two different search methods for electromagnetic counterparts to gravitational-wave (GW) events from ground-based detectors using archival NASA high-energy data from the Fermi-GBM and RXTE-ASM instruments. To demonstrate the methods, we use a limited number of representative GW background noise events produced by a search for binary neutron star coalescence over the last two months of the LIGO-Virgo S6/VSR3 joint science run. Time and sky location provided by the GW data trigger a targeted search in the high-energy photon data. We use two custom pipelines: one to search for prompt g…
The electromagnetic (EM) emission associated with a gravitational wave (GW) signal is one of the main goal of future astronomy. Merger of neutron stars and/or black holes and core-collapse of massive stars are expected to cause rapid transient electromagnetic signals. The EM follow-up of GW signals will have to deal with large position uncertainties. The gravitational sky localization is expected to be tens to hundreds of square degrees. Wide-field cameras and rapid follow-up observations will be crucial to characterize the EM candidates for the first EM counterpart identification. We present …
We discuss two approaches to searches for gravitational-wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) counterparts of binary neutron star mergers. The first approach relies on triggering archival searches of GW detector data based on detections of EM transients. We introduce a quantitative approach to evaluate the improvement to GW detector reach due to the extra information gained from the EM transient and the increased confidence in the presence of a signal from a binary merger. We also advocate utilizing other transients in addition to short gamma ray bursts. The second approach involves following up …
The multi-messenger observation of compact binary coalescence promises great scientific treasure. However, a synthetic observation from both gravitational wave and electromagnetic channels remains challenging. Relying on the day-to-week long macronova emission, GW170817 remains the only event with successful electromagnetic followup. In this manuscript, we explore the possibility of using the early stage X-ray afterglow to search for the electromagnetic counterpart of gravitational wave events. Two algorithms, the sequential observation and the local optimization are considered and applied to …
The electromagnetic (EM) follow-up of a gravitational wave (GW) event requires to scan a wide sky region, defined by the so called "skymap", for the detection and identification of a transient counterpart. We propose a novel method that exploits information encoded in the GW signal to construct a "detectability map", which represents the time-dependent ("when") probability to detect the transient at each position of the skymap ("where"). Focusing on the case of a neutron star binary inspiral, we model the associated short gamma-ray burst afterglow and macronova emission, using the probability …
We anticipate the first direct detections of gravitational waves (GWs) with Advanced LIGO and Virgo later this decade. Though this groundbreaking technical achievement will be its own reward, a still greater prize could be observations of compact binary mergers in both gravitational and electromagnetic channels simultaneously. During Advanced LIGO and Virgo's first two years of operation, 2015 through 2016, we expect the global GW detector array to improve in sensitivity and livetime and expand from two to three detectors. We model the detection rate and the sky localization accuracy for binar…
It is often assumed that gravitational wave (GW) events resulting from the merger of stellar-mass black holes are unlikely to produce electromagnetic (EM) counterparts. We point out that the progenitor binary has probably shed a mass $\gtrsim 10\,{\rm M}_{\odot}$ during its prior evolution. If a tiny fraction of this gas is retained until the merger, the recoil and sudden mass loss of the merged black hole shocks and heats it within hours of the GW event. Whether resulting EM emission is detectable is uncertain. The optical depth through the disk is likely to be high enough that the prompt emi…
Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in 2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic afterglow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgo's third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted. We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Vi…
Compact binary mergers, with neutron stars or neutron star and black-hole components, are thought to produce various electromagnetic counterparts: short gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) from ultra-relativistic jets followed by broadband afterglow; semi-isotropic kilonova from radioactive decay of r-process elements; and late time radio flares; etc. If the jets from such mergers follow a similar power-law distribution of Lorentz factors as other astrophysical jets then the population of merger jets will be dominated by low-Γ values. The prompt gamma-rays associated with short GRBs would be suppressed fo…
The Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO) and Virgo Collaboration's Observing Run 3 has demanded the development of widely-applicable tools for gravitational wave follow-up. These tools must address the main challenges of the multi-messenger era, namely covering large localisation regions and quickly identifying decaying transients. To address these challenges, we present a public web interface to assist astronomers in conducting galaxy-targeted follow-up of gravitational wave events by offering a fast and public list of targets post-gravitational wave trigger. After a gra…
A programme of worldwide, multi-wavelength electromagnetic follow-up of sources detected by gravitational wave detectors is in place. Following the discovery of GW150914 and GW151226, wide field imaging of their sky localisations identified a number of candidate optical counterparts which were then spectrally classified. The majority of candidates were found to be supernovae at redshift ranges similar to the GW events and were thereby ruled out as a genuine counterpart. Other candidates ruled out include AGN and solar system objects. Given the GW sources were black hole binary mergers, the lac…
We investigate the properties of the host galaxies of compact binary mergers across cosmic time. To this end, we combine population synthesis simulations together with galaxy catalogues from the hydrodynamical cosmological simulation EAGLE to derive the properties of the host galaxies of binary neutron star (BNS), black hole-neutron star (BHNS) and binary black hole (BBH) mergers. Within this framework, we derive the host galaxy probability, i.e., the probability that a galaxy hosts a compact binary coalescence as a function of its stellar mass, star formation rate, $K_s$ magnitude and $B$ mag…
The initial discovery of LIGO on 14 September 2015 was the inspiral merger and ring-down of the black hole binary at a distance of about 500~Mpc or a redshift of about 0.1. The search for electromagnetic counterparts for the inspiral of binary black holes is impeded by coarse initial source localisations and a lack of a compelling model for the counterpart; therefore, rapid electromagnetic follow-up is required to understand the astrophysical context of these sources. Because astrophysical sources of gravitational radiation are likely to reside in galaxies, it would make sense to search first …
Unlike mergers of two compact objects containing a neutron star (NS), binary black hole (BBH) mergers are not accompanied by the production of tidally disrupted material, and hence lack the most direct source of accretion to power a jet and generate electromagnetic (EM) radiation. However, following a tentative detection by the Fermi GBM of a $γ$-ray counterpart to GW150914, several alternative ideas were proposed for driving a jet and producing EM radiation. {\em If} such jets were in fact produced, they would however lack the bright cocoon emission that makes jets from binary NSs bright also…
The detection of electromagnetic (EM) emission following the gravitational wave (GW) event GW170817 opened the era of multi-messenger astronomy with GWs and provided the first direct evidence that at least a fraction of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers are progenitors of short Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs). GRBs are also expected to emit very-high energy (VHE, > 100 GeV) photons, as proven by the recent MAGIC and H.E.S.S. observations. One of the challenges for future multi-messenger observations will be the detection of such VHE emission from GRBs in association with GWs. In the next years, the Ch…
Mergers of black hole (BH) and neutron star (NS) binaries are of interest since the emission of gravitational waves (GWs) can be followed by an electromagnetic (EM) counterpart, which could power short gamma-ray bursts. Until now, LIGO/Virgo has only observed a candidate BH-NS event, GW190426\_152155, which was not followed by any EM counterpart. We discuss how the presence (absence) of a remnant disk, which powers the EM counterpart, can be used along with spin measurements by LIGO/Virgo to derive a lower (upper) limit on the radius of the NS. For the case of GW190426\_152155, large measureme…
The gravitational wave window onto the universe will open in roughly five years, when Advanced LIGO and Virgo achieve the first detections of high frequency gravitational waves, most likely coming from compact binary mergers. Electromagnetic follow-up of these triggers, using radio, optical, and high energy telescopes, promises exciting opportunities in multi-messenger time domain astronomy. In the next decade, space-based observations of low frequency gravitational waves from massive black hole mergers, and their electromagnetic counterparts, will open up further vistas for discovery. This tw…
