Rising penetration levels of (residential) photovoltaic (PV) power as distributed energy resource pose a number of challenges to the electricity infrastructure. High quality, general tools to provide accurate forecasts of power production are urgently needed. In this article, we propose a supervised deep learning model for end-to-end forecasting of PV power production. The proposed model is based on two seminal concepts that led to significant performance improvements of deep learning approaches in other sequence-related fields, but not yet in the area of time series prediction: the sequence to sequence architecture and attention mechanism as a context generator. The proposed model leverages numerical weather predictions and high-resolution historical measurements to forecast a binned probability distribution over the prognostic time intervals, rather than the expected values of the prognostic variable. This design offers significant performance improvements compared to common baseline approaches, such as fully connected neural networks and one-block long short-term memory architectures. Using normalized root mean square error based forecast skill score as a performance indicator, the proposed approach is compared to other models. The results show that the new design performs at or above the current state of the art of PV power forecasting.
We propose a fully probabilistic prediction model for spatially aggregated solar photovoltaic (PV) power production at an hourly time scale with lead times up to several days using weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems as covariates. After an appropriate logarithmic transformation of the power production, we develop a multivariate Gaussian prediction model under a Bayesian inference framework. The model incorporates the temporal error correlation yielding physically consistent forecast trajectories. Several formulations of the correlation structure are proposed and invest…
Renewable Energies (RES) penetration is progressing rapidly: in France, the installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) power rose from 26MW in 2007 to 8GW in 2017 [1]. Power generated by PV plants being highly dependent on variable weather conditions, this ever-growing pace is raising issues regarding grid stability and revenue optimization. To overcome these obstacles, PV forecasting became an area of intense research. In this paper, we propose a low complexity forecasting model able to operate with multiple heterogenous sources of data (power measurements, satellite images and Numerical Weather…
Cross-variable Linear Integrated ENhanced Transformer for Photovoltaic power forecasting
Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；Ningbo Institute of Digital Twin, Eastern Institute of Technology（宁波数字孪生研究院，东方理工大学）；Peng Cheng Laboratory（鹏城实验室）；National Center for Applied Mathematics Shenzhen (NCAMS), Southern University of Science and Technology（深圳应用数学中心，南方科技大学）
In the probabilistic energy forecasting literature, emphasis is mainly placed on deriving marginal predictive densities for which each random variable is dealt with individually. Such marginals description is sufficient for power systems related operational problems if and only if optimal decisions are to be made for each lead-time and each location independently of each other. However, many of these operational processes are temporally and spatially coupled, while uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation is strongly dependent in time and in space. This issue is addressed here by analysing …
SunPower Corporation（SunPower公司）；SolarEdge Technologies（SolarEdge科技公司）；Case Western Reserve University（凯斯西储大学）；C2 Energy Capital（C2能源资本公司）；Sandia National Labs（桑迪亚国家实验室）
The integration of the global Photovoltaic (PV) market with real time data-loggers has enabled large scale PV data analytical pipelines for power forecasting and long-term reliability assessment of PV fleets. Nevertheless, the performance of PV data analysis heavily depends on the quality of PV timeseries data. This paper proposes a novel Spatio-Temporal Denoising Graph Autoencoder (STD-GAE) framework to impute missing PV Power Data. STD-GAE exploits temporal correlation, spatial coherence, and value dependencies from domain knowledge to recover missing data. Experimental results show that STD…
This study evaluates the performance of cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) models for very short- and short-term wind power forecasting. Preliminary results for a German data set comprising six wind power production time series indicate that taking into account potential cointegrating relations between the individual series can improve forecasts at short-term time horizons.
Old Dominion University（欧道明大学）；Yildiz Technical University（伊尔迪兹技术大学）；eKare, Inc.（eKare公司）
The use of solar photovoltaics (PV) energy provides additional resources to the electric power grid. The downside of this integration is that the solar power supply is unreliable and highly dependent on the weather condition. The predictability and stability of forecasting are critical for the full utilization of solar power. This study reviews and evaluates various machine learning-based models for solar PV power generation forecasting using a public dataset. Furthermore, The root mean squared error (RMSE), mean squared error (MSE), and mean average error (MAE) metrics are used to evaluate th…
i-EM S.r.l（i-EM有限公司）；Department of Energy, Systems, Territory and Constructions Engineering, University of Pisa（比萨大学能源、系统、领土和建筑工程系）；Enel Green Power S.p.A.（意大利国家电力公司绿色电力分公司（Enel Green Power S.p.A.））；Renewable Energy Management, Enel Green Power S.p.A.（可再生能源管理，意大利国家电力公司绿色电力分公司（Enel Green Power S.p.A.））；University of Pisa（比萨大学）
The ability to accurately forecast power generation from renewable sources is nowadays recognised as a fundamental skill to improve the operation of power systems. Despite the general interest of the power community in this topic, it is not always simple to compare different forecasting methodologies, and infer the impact of single components in providing accurate predictions. In this paper we extensively compare simple forecasting methodologies with more sophisticated ones over 32 photovoltaic plants of different size and technology over a whole year. Also, we try to evaluate the impact of we…
Robust Short-Term OEE Forecasting in Industry 4.0 via Topological Data Analysis
Institute of Applied Mathematics, Middle East Technical University（应用数学研究所，中东部技术大学）；Network Technologies Department, TÜBİTAK ULAKBİM（网络技术部门，TÜBİTAK ULAKBİM）；Department of Statistics, Middle East Technical University（统计学系，中东部技术大学）
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Energy and Environmental Economics, Inc.（能源与环境经济公司）
Large-scale integration of photovoltaics (PV) into electricity grids is challenged by the intermittent nature of solar power. Sky-image-based solar forecasting using deep learning has been recognized as a promising approach to predicting the short-term fluctuations. However, there are few publicly available standardized benchmark datasets for image-based solar forecasting, which limits the comparison of different forecasting models and the exploration of forecasting methods. To fill these gaps, we introduce SKIPP'D -- a SKy Images and Photovoltaic Power Generation Dataset. The dataset contains…
Owing to the growing concern of global warming and over-dependence on fossil fuels, there has been a huge interest in last years in the deployment of Photovoltaic (PV) systems for generating electricity. The output power of a PV array greatly depends, among other parameters, on solar irradiation. However, solar irradiation has an intermittent nature and suffers from rapid fluctuations. This creates challenges when integrating PV systems in the electricity grid and calls for accurate forecasting methods of solar irradiance. In this paper, we propose a triple exponential-smoothing based forecast…
Renewable energy sources provide a constantly increasing contribution to the total energy production worldwide. However, the power generation from these sources is highly variable due to their dependence on meteorological conditions. Accurate forecasts for the production at various temporal and spatial scales are thus needed for an efficiently operating electricity market. In this article - part 1 - we propose fully probabilistic prediction models for spatially aggregated wind power production at an hourly time scale with lead times up to several days using weather forecasts from numerical wea…
The current literature in probabilistic forecasting is focused on quantifying the uncertainty of each random variable individually. This leads to the failure in informing about interdependence structure of uncertainty at different locations and/or different lead times. When there is a positive or negative association between a number of random variables, the prediction regions for them should be reflected by multivariate or joint uncertainty sets. The existing literature is very primitive in the area of multivariate uncertainty sets modeling. In this paper, uncertainty regions are generated in…
The uncertainty of the energy generated by photovoltaic systems incurs an additional cost for a guaranteed, reliable supply of energy (i.e., energy storage). This investigation aims to decrease the additional cost by introducing probabilistic multi-task intra-hour solar forecasting (feasible in real time applications) to increase the penetration of photovoltaic systems in power grids. The direction of moving clouds is estimated in consecutive sequences of sky images by extracting features of cloud dynamics with the objective of forecasting the global solar irradiance that reaches photovoltaic …
Intelligent Embedded System Lab（智能嵌入式系统实验室）；Kassel University（卡塞尔大学）
Photovoltaic and wind power forecasts in power systems with a high share of renewable energy are essential in several applications. These include stable grid operation, profitable power trading, and forward-looking system planning. However, there is a lack of publicly available datasets for research on machine learning based prediction methods. This paper provides an openly accessible time series dataset with realistic synthetic power data. Other publicly and non-publicly available datasets often lack precise geographic coordinates, timestamps, or static power plant information, e.g., to prote…
Short term load forecasts will play a key role in the implementation of smart electricity grids. They are required to optimise a wide range of potential network solutions on the low voltage (LV) grid, including integrating low carbon technologies (such as photovoltaics) and utilising battery storage devices. Despite the need for accurate LV level load forecasts, previous studies have mostly focused on forecasting at the individual household or building level using data from smart meters. In this study we provide detailed analysis of a variety of methods in terms of both point and probabilistic…
Cloud-Edge Collaborative Large Models for Robust Photovoltaic Power Forecasting
School of Computer Science and Engineering, Central South University（中南大学计算机科学与工程学院）；Department of Computer Science and Technology, BNRist, Tsinghua University（清华大学计算机科学与技术系）；Beijing Smartchip Microelectronics Technology Co., Ltd（北京智芯微电子技术有限公司）
Peng Cheng Laboratory（鹏城实验室）；Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学）
Accurate forecasts of photovoltaic power generation (PVPG) are essential to optimize operations between energy supply and demand. Recently, the propagation of sensors and smart meters has produced an enormous volume of data, which supports the development of data based PVPG forecasting. Although emerging deep learning (DL) models, such as the long short-term memory (LSTM) model, based on historical data, have provided effective solutions for PVPG forecasting with great successes, these models utilize offline learning. As a result, DL models cannot take advantage of the opportunity to learn fro…
AutoPV: Automatically Design Your Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Model
Department of Building Environment and Energy Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学建筑环境与能源工程系）；International Centre of Urban Energy Nexus, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学城市能源 nexus 中心）；Research Institute for Smart Energy, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University（香港理工大学智能能源研究院）；Eastern Institute for Advanced Study, Eastern Institute of Technology（东院高级研究机构）；School of Business, Society and Technology, Mälardalens University（马尔默大学商学院、社会与技术学院）；Center for Spatial Information Science, the University of Tokyo（东京大学空间信息科学中心）；PV Industry Innovation Center, State Power Investment Corporation（国家电力投资集团光伏产业创新中心）；School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen（北京大学深圳校区城市规划与设计学院）；Ningbo Institute of Digital Twin, Eastern Institute of Technology（宁波数字孪生研究所）
POLI University of Pernambuco（伯南布哥大学POLI）；FITec（FITec基金会）；CIN Federal University of Pernambuco（伯南布哥联邦大学CIN）
All productive branches of society need an estimate to be able to control their expenses well. In the energy business, electric utilities use this information to control the power flow in the grid. For better energy production estimation of photovoltaic systems, it is necessary to join multiples geospatial and meteorological variables. This work proposes the creation of a satellite data integration platform, with production estimation models, base stations measurement and actual production capacity. This work presents statistical, probabilistic and artificial intelligence models that generate …
RMIT University（皇家墨尔本理工大学）；University of Jeddah（吉达大学）；CSIRO（联邦科学与工业研究组织）
Accurate and reliable prediction of Photovoltaic (PV) power output is critical to electricity grid stability and power dispatching capabilities. However, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is highly volatile and unstable due to different reasons. The Wavelet Transform (WT) has been utilised in time series applications, such as Photovoltaic (PV) power prediction, to model the stochastic volatility and reduce prediction errors. Yet the existing Wavelet Transform (WT) approach has a limitation in terms of time complexity. It requires reconstructing the decomposed components and modelling them sep…
Swami Vivekananda Institute of Science & Technology（斯瓦米·维韦卡南达科学技术学院）；Department of Computer Science and Engineering（计算机科学与工程系）
Photovoltaic power is a renewable source of energy which is highly used in industries. In economically struggling countries it can be a potential source of electric energy as other non-renewable resources are already exhausting. Now if installation of a photovoltaic cell in a region is done prior to research, it may not provide the desired energy output required for running that region. Hence forecasting is required which can elicit the output from a particular region considering its geometrical coordinates, solar parameter like GHI and weather parameters like temperature and wind speed etc. O…
Photovoltaic (PV) power production increased drastically in Europe throughout the last years. About the 6% of electricity in Italy comes from PV and for an efficient management of the power grid an accurate and reliable forecasting of production would be needed. Starting from a dataset of electricity production of 65 Italian solar plants for the years 2011-2012 we investigate the possibility to forecast daily production from one to ten days of lead time without using on site measurements. Our study is divided in two parts: an assessment of the predictability of meteorological variables using w…
Politecnico di Milano（米兰理工大学）；AzaTec（AzaTec公司）；Walmart Global Tech India（沃尔玛印度全球技术公司）
Oil production forecasting is an important step in controlling the cost-effect and monitoring the functioning of petroleum reservoirs. As a result, oil production forecasting makes it easier for reservoir engineers to develop feasible projects, which helps to avoid risky investments and achieve long-term growth. As a result, reliable petroleum reservoir forecasting is critical for controlling and managing the effective cost of oil reservoirs. Oil production is influenced by reservoir qualities such as porosity, permeability, compressibility, fluid saturation, and other well operational paramet…
With the rapid growth of renewable energy, lots of small photovoltaic (PV) prosumers emerge. Due to the uncertainty of solar power generation, there is a need for aggregated prosumers to predict solar power generation and whether solar power generation will be larger than load. This paper presents two interpretable neural networks to solve the problem: one binary classification neural network and one regression neural network. The neural networks are built using TensorFlow. The global feature importance and local feature contributions are examined by three gradient-based methods: Integrated Gr…
Accurate forecasting of solar power generation with fine temporal and spatial resolution is vital for the operation of the power grid. However, state-of-the-art approaches that combine machine learning with numerical weather predictions (NWP) have coarse resolution. In this paper, we take a graph signal processing perspective and model multi-site photovoltaic (PV) production time series as signals on a graph to capture their spatio-temporal dependencies and achieve higher spatial and temporal resolution forecasts. We present two novel graph neural network models for deterministic multi-site PV…
Deep neural networks can generate more accurate shale gas production forecasts in counties with a limited number of sample wells by utilizing transfer learning. This paper provides a way of transferring the knowledge gained from other deep neural network models trained on adjacent counties into the county of interest. The paper uses data from more than 6000 shale gas wells across 17 counties from Texas Barnett and Pennsylvania Marcellus shale formations to test the capabilities of transfer learning. The results reduce the forecasting error between 11% and 47% compared to the widely used Arps d…
University of North Carolina at Charlotte（北卡罗来纳大学夏洛特分校）
To mitigate the uncertainty of variable renewable resources, two off-the-shelf machine learning tools are deployed to forecast the solar power output of a solar photovoltaic system. The support vector machines generate the forecasts and the random forest acts as an ensemble learning method to combine the forecasts. The common ensemble technique in wind and solar power forecasting is the blending of meteorological data from several sources. In this study though, the present and the past solar power forecasts from several models, as well as the associated meteorological data, are incorporated in…
Ecole Polytechnique（巴黎综合理工学院）；IFP Energies nouvelles（法国石油与新能源研究院）；Université Paris Sud（巴黎南大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Safran（赛峰集团）
Production forecasting is a key step to design the future development of a reservoir. A classical way to generate such forecasts consists in simulating future production for numerical models representative of the reservoir. However, identifying such models can be very challenging as they need to be constrained to all available data. In particular, they should reproduce past production data, which requires to solve a complex non-linear inverse problem. In this paper, we thus propose to investigate the potential of machine learning algorithms to predict the future production of a reservoir based…
Production forecast based on historical data provides essential value for developing hydrocarbon resources. Classic history matching workflow is often computationally intense and geometry-dependent. Analytical data-driven models like decline curve analysis (DCA) and capacitance resistance models (CRM) provide a grid-free solution with a relatively simple model capable of integrating some degree of physics constraints. However, the analytical solution may ignore subsurface geometries and is appropriate only for specific flow regimes and otherwise may violate physics conditions resulting in degr…
There is recent interest in using model hubs, a collection of pre-trained models, in computer vision tasks. To utilize the model hub, we first select a source model and then adapt the model for the target to compensate for differences. While there is yet limited research on model selection and adaption for computer vision tasks, this holds even more for the field of renewable power. At the same time, it is a crucial challenge to provide forecasts for the increasing demand for power forecasts based on weather features from a numerical weather prediction. We close these gaps by conducting the fi…
Evaluation of a Foundational Model and Stochastic Models for Forecasting Sporadic or Spiky Production Outages of High-Performance Machine Learning Services
University of Central Florida（中佛罗里达大学）；University of Ottawa（渥太华大学）
A smart home energy management system (HEMS) can contribute towards reducing the energy costs of customers; however, HEMS suffers from uncertainty in both energy generation and consumption patterns. In this paper, we propose a sequence to sequence (Seq2Seq) learning-based supply and load prediction along with reinforcement learning-based HEMS control. We investigate how the prediction method affects the HEMS operation. First, we use Seq2Seq learning to predict photovoltaic (PV) power and home devices' load. We then apply Q-learning for offline optimization of HEMS based on the prediction resul…
In recent years, renewable energy resources have accounted for an increasing share of electricity energy.Among them, photovoltaic (PV) power generation has received broad attention due to its economic and environmental benefits.Accurate PV generation forecasts can reduce power dispatch from the grid, thus increasing the supplier's profit in the day-ahead electricity market.The power system of a PV site is affected by solar radiation, PV plant properties and meteorological factors, resulting in uncertainty in its power output.This study used multiple seasonal-trend decomposition using LOESS (MS…
