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arXiv 2610.14014cs.LGcs.AI
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用于日前光伏功率预测的物理信息状态空间模型

Physics-Informed State Space Models for Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

Karlstad University(卡尔斯塔德大学);Deggendorf Institute of Technology(德根多夫应用技术大学)

Phil Aupke, Muhammad Hassan, Khalid Ali, Seema, Andreas Kassler, Andreas Theocharis

AI总结:

本文提出结合PowerMamba的物理信息状态空间框架,用于日前光伏功率预测,在公用事业级光伏数据上较仅物理基线提升精度,降低RMSE 38.5%、MAE 45.8%,还增强了预测鲁棒性。

摘要:

准确的日前光伏(PV)功率预测既需要强大的时间建模能力,又需遵守光伏系统的物理约束。纯数据驱动模型常忽略底层光伏转换过程,可能产生超出光伏系统运行范围的预测。本文提出一种物理信息状态空间框架,将可微分光伏转换模型与选择性状态空间骨干网络PowerMamba相结合,遵循物理残差分解思路:物理模块基于太阳几何、辐照度、温度效应及逆变器极限提供结构化基线,状态空间模型则学习数值天气预报(NWP)输入在24小时时间范围内的残差修正。对一年的公用事业级光伏数据开展实验,结果显示,与仅物理基线相比,所提方法将均方根误差(RMSE)降低38.5%、平均绝对误差(MAE)降低45.8%,预测精度显著提升,且优于纯数据驱动模型;进一步研究表明,融入系统级物理约束可带来最大性能提升,额外优化仅能提供边际改进。除精度外,该模型还通过将预测约束至物理可行范围,提升了鲁棒性,减少了测量受干扰时的不合理预测。

英文摘要:

Accurate day-ahead photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting requires both strong temporal modeling and adherence to physical PV system constraints. Purely data-driven models often ignore the underlying PV conversion process and may produce predictions that are outside the operational range of a PV system. In this paper, we propose a physics-informed state space framework that combines a differentiable PV conversion model with a selective state space backbone (PowerMamba). Our approach follows a physics-residual decomposition. The physics module provides a structured baseline based on solar geometry, irradiance, temperature effects, and inverter limits, while the state space model learns residual corrections from numerical weather prediction (NWP) inputs over a 24-hour horizon. Experiments on one year of utility-scale PV data show that the proposed method significantly improves forecasting accuracy, reducing RMSE by 38.5% and MAE by 45.8% compared to a physics-only baseline, and outperforming a purely data-driven model. Results further show that incorporating system-level physics provides the largest performance gains, while additional refinements offer only marginal improvements. Beyond accuracy, the model improves robustness by constraining predictions toward physical feasibility, reducing unrealistic predictions under corrupted measurements.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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