设计创新众筹：一个包含关键因素的预测模型
Crowdfunding for Design Innovation: Prediction Model with Critical Factors
摘要：
基于在线奖励的众筹活动已经成为一种创新方法，用于验证需求，发现早期采用者，并在创新产品的设计过程中寻求学习和反馈。然而，创新产品的众筹活动面临着高度的不确定性，并且成功率很低，无法实现其设计价值。为了指导众筹活动的设计者和创新者，本文提出了一种数据驱动的方法，基于公开的在线众筹活动数据，构建一个预测模型，其中包含众筹成功的关键因素。具体而言，该方法在Real-Win-Worth框架中筛选出26个候选因素，并通过逐步回归确定关键因素，以预测众筹金额。我们通过推导预测模型并从Kickstarter和Indiegogo上的3D打印机和智能手表活动数据中识别基本因素来演示该方法。这些关键因素可以指导活动的发展，预测模型可以在上下文中评估创新的众筹潜力，以增加创新产品的众筹成功机会。
英文摘要：
Online reward-based crowdfunding campaigns have emerged as an innovative approach for validating demands, discovering early adopters, and seeking learning and feedback in the design processes of innovative products. However, crowdfunding campaigns for innovative products are faced with a high degree of uncertainty and suffer meager rates of success to fulfill their values for design. To guide designers and innovators for crowdfunding campaigns, this paper presents a data-driven methodology to build a prediction model with critical factors for crowdfunding success, based on public online crowdfunding campaign data. Specifically, the methodology filters 26 candidate factors in the Real-Win-Worth framework and identifies the critical ones via step-wise regression to predict the amount of crowdfunding. We demonstrate the methodology via deriving prediction models and identifying essential factors from 3D printer and smartwatch campaign data on Kickstarter and Indiegogo. The critical factors can guide campaign developments, and the prediction model may evaluate crowdfunding potential of innovations in contexts, to increase the chance of crowdfunding success of innovative products.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
