Predicting changes in sea ice cover is critical for shipping, ecosystem monitoring, and climate modeling. Current sea ice models, however, predict more ice than is observed in the Arctic, and less in the Antarctic. Improving the fit of these physics-based models to observations is challenging because the models are expensive to run, and therefore expensive to optimize. Here, we construct a machine learning surrogate that emulates the effect of changing model physics on forecasts of sea ice area from the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE). We use the surrogate model to investigate the sensitivity of CICE to changes in the parameters governing: ice's ridging and albedo; snow's albedo, aging, and thermal conductivity; the effect of meltwater on albedo; and the effect of ponds on albedo. We find that CICE's sensitivity to these model parameters differs between hemispheres. We propose that future sea ice modelers separate the snow conductivity and snow grain size distributions on a seasonal and inter-hemispheric basis, and we recommend optimal values of these parameters. This will make it possible to make models that fit observations of both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice more closely. These results demonstrate that important aspects of the behavior of a leading sea ice model can be captured by a relatively simple support vector regression surrogate model, and that this surrogate dramatically increases the ease of tuning the full simulation.
We study the response of the Lagrangian sea ice model neXtSIM to the uncertainty in the sea surface wind and sea ice cohesion. The ice mechanics in neXtSIM is based on a brittle-like rheological framework. The study considers short-term ensemble forecasts of the Arctic sea ice from January to April 2008. Ensembles are generated by perturbing the wind inputs and ice cohesion field both separately and jointly. The resulting uncertainty in the probabilistic forecasts is evaluated statistically based on the analysis of Lagrangian sea ice trajectories as sampled by virtual drifters seeded in the mo…
The relationship between sea ice thickness and microwave brightness temperature is explored. Parameterized ice profiles are fed to a radiative-transfer-based sea ice emissivity model (Microwave Emmission of Layered Snowpack, MEMLS). Complex permittivities, required as input for the simulation, are determined using a semi-empirical mixture model. Since the thickness-radiance relation is not fixed but can vary significantly depending upon past and current weather conditions, we determine a range of brightness temperature values for each thickness. This is done using a bootstrap model in which th…
Sea ice motions play an important role in the polar climate system by transporting pollutants, heat, water and salt as well as changing the ice cover. Numerous physics-based models have been constructed to represent the sea ice dynamical interaction with the atmosphere and ocean. In this study, we propose a new data-driven deep-learning approach that utilizes a convolutional neural network (CNN) to model how Arctic sea ice moves in response to surface winds given its initial ice velocity and concentration a day earlier. Results show that CNN computes the sea ice response with a correlation of …
The sea-ice cover of the Arctic Ocean is an important element of the climate and ocean system in the Northern Hemisphere as it impacts albedo, atmospheric pressure regimes, CO2-exchange at the ocean/atmosphere interface as well as the North Atlantic freshwater budget and thermohaline circulation [1]. Due to global warming, the Arctic sea-ice cover is presently evolving at an unprecedent rate towards full melt during the summer season, driving the so-called "Arctic amplification" [2]. However, the Arctic sea-ice has also experienced large amplitude variations, from seasonal to orbital (Milankov…
Several environmental tipping points and self-reinforcing feedback loops are still disregarded within the frequently used climate models. Thus, existing climate models are not very representative for providing projections of the conditions after the actual environmental tipping points are triggered. In this contribution, we discuss the presence of the Arctic sea-ice loss tipping point and its influence on global warming. Our literature search and PIOMAS sea volume observation data based projection indicate the significant acceleration of the sea-ice loss (which leads to a year around and perma…
Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice covers. However, in each hemisphere there is a small subset of model simulations that have sea ice trends similar to the observations. Based on this, a number of recent studies have suggested that the models are consistent with the observations in each hemisphere when simulated internal climate variability is taken into account. Here we exam…
We examine the nature of the ice-albedo feedback in a long standing approach used in the dynamic-thermodynamic modeling of sea ice. The central issue examined is how the evolution of the ice area is treated when modeling a partial ice cover using a two-category-thickness scheme; thin sea ice and open water in one category and "thick" sea ice in the second. The problem with the scheme is that the area-evolution is handled in a manner that violates the basic rules of calculus, which leads to a neglected area-evolution term that is equivalent to neglecting a leading-order latent heat flux. We dem…
Variability in sea ice conditions, combined with strong couplings to the atmosphere and the ocean, lead to a broad range of complex sea ice dynamics. More in-situ measurements are needed to better identify the phenomena and mechanisms that govern sea ice growth, drift, and breakup. To this end, we have gathered a dataset of in-situ observations of sea ice drift and waves in ice. A total of 15 deployments were performed over a period of 5 years in both the Arctic and Antarctic, involving 72 instruments. These provide both GPS drift tracks, and measurements of waves in ice. The data can, in turn…
The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat than has been observed. However, this bias has been widely noted to have decreased in models participating in the most recent phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) compared with the previous generation of models (CMIP3). Here we examine simulations from both CMIP3 and CMIP5. We find that simulated historical sea ice trends are influenced b…
Waves can drastically transform a sea ice cover by inducing break-up over vast distances in the course of a few hours. However, relatively few detailed studies have described this phenomenon in a quantitative manner, and the process of sea ice break-up by waves needs to be further parameterized and verified before it can be reliably included in forecasting models. In the present work, we discuss sea ice break-up parameterization and demonstrate the existence of an observational threshold separating breaking and non-breaking cases. This threshold is based on information from two recent field ca…
In an effort to understand the dynamics of the Arctic sea-ice edge, we present a simple model of heat and mass transfer in the Fram Strait that reveals some fundamental mechanisms controlling sea-ice extent in the marginal seas and the depth and properties of the Arctic mixed layer. We identify and study key mechanisms relating to the sea-ice wedge described by Untersteiner, a boundary-layer structure near the ice edge, demonstrating how ice thickness and extent depend on ice-export rates, atmospheric forcing and the properties of incoming warm and salty Atlantic water in the West Spitsbergen …
Within the framework of lower order thermodynamic theories for the climatic evolution of Arctic sea ice we isolate the conditions required for the existence of stable seasonally-varying solutions, in which ice forms each winter and melts away each summer. This is done by constructing a two-season model from the continuously evolving theory of Eisenman and Wettlaufer (2009) and showing that seasonally-varying states are unstable under constant annual average short-wave radiative forcing. However, dividing the summer season into two intervals (ice covered and ice free) provides sufficient freedo…
Arctic sea ice concentration is often coarsely observed and numerically computed despite its importance for polar climate system. In this work we present three machine-learning methods to recover the original high-resolution images from the coarse-grained low-resolution counterparts. The promising results indicate a possibility of extending the application to a broad range of geophysical variables.
This study is part of an effort to improve the Navy's ability to forecast wind-generated ocean waves in ice-infested regions, and here we are attempting to further this goal by improving prediction of dissipation of wave energy by sea ice. Rogers et al. (2021) presented new estimates of frequency-dependent dissipation of wave energy by sea ice, based on model-data inversion, and studied the correlation with various other parameters, such as ice thickness and sea state variables. Here, we use that dataset to propose a new dissipation parameterization which explicitly incorporates the dependence…
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice-albedo feedback. Here we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that while the ice-albedo feedb…
Sea ice is highly complex due to the inhomogeneity of the physical properties (e.g. temperature and salinity) as well as the permeability and mixture of water and a matrix of sea ice and/or sea ice crystals. Such complexity has proven itself to be difficult to parameterize in operational wave models. Instead, we assume that there exists a self-similarity scaling law which captures the first order properties. Using dimensional analysis, an equation for the kinematic viscosity is derived which is proportional to the wave frequency and the ice thickness squared. In addition, the model allows for …
Two drifting wave buoys were deployed in the central Arctic Ocean, north of the Laptev Sea, where there are historically no wave observations available. An experimental wave buoy was deployed alongside a commercial buoy. The inter-buoy comparison showed that the experimental buoy measured wave heights and periods accurately; so the buoy data were used to study the predictability of a wave-ice model in this region. The first event we focused was when both buoys observed a sudden decrease in significant wave heights $H_{m0}$. The sudden decrease was caused by the change of wind directions from a…
The results of field work on drift ice during wave propagation are analyzed and presented. The field work was performed in the Barents Sea, and the main focus of the paper is on wave processes in the MIZ. A model of wave damping in broken ice is formulated and applied to interpret the field work results. It is confirmed that waves of higher frequencies are subjected to stronger damping when they propagate below the ice. This reduces the frequency of most energetic wave with increasing distance from the ice edge. Difference of wave spectra measured in two relatively close locations within the M…
Sea ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic is an important indicator of changes in the climate, with important environmental, economic and security consequences. The complexity of the spatio-temporal dynamics of sea ice makes it difficult to assess the temporal nature of the changes - e.g. linear or exponential - and their precise geographical loci. In this study, Koopman Mode Decomposition (KMD) was applied to satellite data of sea ice concentration for the northern and southern hemispheres to gain insight into the temporal and spatial dynamics of the sea ice behavior and to predict future sea…
1) The annual cycle of atmospheric methane in southern high latitudes is extremely highly correlated with Antarctic sea ice extent. 2) The annual cycle of atmospheric methane in the Arctic is highly correlated with Antarctic or Arctic plus Antarctic sea ice extent. 3) We propose the global annual cycle of atmospheric methane is largely driven by Antarctic sea ice dynamics, with relatively stronger influence from other fluxes (probably the biota) in the Northern Hemisphere. 4) We propose degassing during sea ice freeze and temperature dependent solubility in the ocean dominate the annual methan…
Predicting Arctic sea ice extent is a notoriously difficult forecasting problem, even for lead times as short as one month. Motivated by Arctic intraannual variability phenomena such as reemergence of sea surface temperature and sea ice anomalies, we use a prediction approach for sea ice anomalies based on analog forecasting. Traditional analog forecasting relies on identifying a single analog in a historical record, usually by minimizing Euclidean distance, and forming a forecast from the analog's historical trajectory. Here an ensemble of analogs are used to make forecasts, where the ensembl…
The extent to which the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice affects mid-latitude climate has received great attention and polarised opinions. The basic issue is whether the inter-annual variability in Arctic sea ice is the cause of, or the response to, variability in mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. A recent paper by Mori et al. (M19) claims to have reconciled previous conflicting studies by showing that a consistent mid-latitude climate response to inter-annual sea-ice anomalies can be identified in both the ERA-Interim reanalysis, taken as observations, and in an ensemble of atmosphere-on…
Ice thickness is an important variable for climate scientists and is still difficult to accurately determine from microwave radiometer measurements. There has been some success detecting the thickness of thin ice and with this in mind this study attempts to model the thickness-radiance relation of sea ice at frequencies employed by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) radiometer and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR): between 1.4 and 89 GHz. In the first part of the study, the salinity of the ice was determined by a pair of empirical relationships, while the temperature w…
Knowledge of the past behavior of Antarctic polynyas such as the Ross and Weddell Seas contributes to the understanding of biological productivity, sea ice production, katabatic and Southern Hemisphere Westerly (SHW) wind strength, Antarctic bottom water (ABW) formation, and marine CO2 sequestration. Previous studies link barium (Ba) marine sedimentation to polynya primary productivity (Bonn et al., 1998; McManus et al., 2002; Pirrung et al., 2008), polynya area to katabatic wind strength and proximal cyclones (Bromwich et al., 1998; Drucker et al., 2011), and highlight the influence of Ross I…
The variation in the Arctic sea ice is dominated by the seasonal cycle with little inter-annual correlation. Though the mean sea ice area has decreased steadily in the period of satellite observations, a dramatic transition in the dynamics was initiated with the record low September ice area in 2007. The change is much more pronounced in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle than in the annual mean ice area. The shape of the seasonal cycle is surprisingly constant for the whole observational record despite the general decline. A simple explanation, independent of the increased greenhouse warming…
Abrupt and irreversible winter Arctic sea-ice loss may occur under anthropogenic warming due to the collapse of a sea-ice equilibrium at a threshold value of CO$_2$, commonly referred to as a tipping point. Previous work has been unable to conclusively identify whether a tipping point in Arctic sea ice exists because fully-coupled climate models are too computationally expensive to run to equilibrium for many CO$_2$ values. Here, we explore the deviation of sea ice from its equilibrium state under realistic rates of CO$_2$ increase to demonstrate how a few time-dependent CO$_2$ experiments can…
It has been widely debated whether Arctic sea-ice loss can reach a tipping point beyond which a large sea-ice area disappears abruptly. The theory of dynamical systems predicts a slowing down when a system destabilises towards a tipping point. In simple stochastic systems this can result in increasing variance and autocorrelation, potentially yielding an early warning of an abrupt change. Here we aim to establish whether the loss of Arctic sea ice would follow these conceptual predictions, and which trends in sea ice variability can be expected from pre-industrial conditions toward an Arctic t…
We analyze the stability of a low-order coupled sea ice and climate model and extract the essential physics governing the time scales of response as a function of greenhouse gas forcing. Under present climate conditions the stability is controlled by longwave radiation driven heat conduction. However, as greenhouse gas forcing increases and the ice cover decays, the destabilizing influence of ice-albedo feedback acts on equal footing with longwave stabilization. Both are seasonally out of phase and as the system warms towards a seasonal ice state these effects, which underlie the bifurcations …
Irregular, unidirectional surface water waves incident on model ice in an ice tank are used as a physical model of ocean surface wave interactions with sea ice. Results are given for an experiment consisting of three tests, starting with a continuous ice cover and in which the incident wave steepness increases between tests. The incident waves range from causing no breakup of the ice cover to breakup of the full length of ice cover. Temporal evolution of the ice edge, breaking front and mean floe sizes are reported. Floe size distributions in the different tests are analysed. The evolution of …
We present a mathematical model describing the evolution of sea ice and meltwater during summer. The system is described by two coupled partial differential equations for the ice thickness $h$ and pond depth $w$ fields. We test the sensitivity of the model to variations of parameters controlling fluid-dynamic processes at the pond level, namely the variation of turbulent heat flux with pond depth and the lateral melting of ice enclosing a pond. We observe that different heat flux scalings determine different rates of total surface ablations, while the system is relatively robust in terms of pr…
Arctic sea ice extent has declined continuously for the past decade, owing partially to light absorption by black carbon (BC) and other impurities deposited on snow and the underlying pack. We present simulations for the contemporary period showing that the optical depth contributed by Arctic ice algal chlorophyll may be comparable during Boreal Spring to the corresponding values attributable to BC. The largest chlorophyll attenuation is obtained in the bottom layer, which supports pigment concentrations of about 300 to 1000 mg/m3 in the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. However, chlorophyll conc…
Microscopy system for in situ sea ice structure and biology observations
Takuvik Joint International Laboratory, Université Laval and CNRS（塔库维克联合国际实验室，拉瓦尔大学和法国国家科学研究中心）；Centre d'Optique, Photonique et Laser (COPL) and Département de Physique, de Génie Physique et d'Optique, Université Laval（光学、光电子学和激光中心及物理、物理工程与光学系，拉瓦尔大学）
We study the seasonal changes in the thickness distribution of Arctic sea ice, $g(h)$, under climate forcing. Our analytical and numerical approach is based on a Fokker-Planck equation for $g(h)$ (Toppaladoddi \& Wettlaufer \emph{Phys. Rev. Lett.} {\bf 115}, 148501, 2015), in which the thermodynamic growth rates are determined using observed climatology. In particular, the Fokker-Planck equation is coupled to the observationally consistent thermodynamic model of Eisenman \& Wettlaufer (\emph{Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA} {\bf 106}, pp. 28-32, 2009). We find that due to the combined effects of th…
In seasonally ice-covered seas and along the margins of perennial ice pack, i.e. in regions with medium ice concentrations, the ice cover typically consists of separate floes interacting with each other by inelastic collisions. In this paper, hitherto unexplored analogies between this type of ice cover and two-dimensional granular gases are used to formulate a model of ice dynamics at the floe level. The model consists of: (i) momentum equations for floe motion between collisions, formulated in the form of a Stokes-flow problem, with floe-size dependent time constant and equilibrium velocity, …
A controlling factor in the seasonal and climatological evolution of the sea ice cover is its albedo $α$. Here we analyze Arctic data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Polar Pathfinder and assess the seasonality and variability of broadband albedo from a 23 year daily record. We produce a histogram of daily albedo over ice covered regions in which the principal albedo transitions are seen; high albedo in late winter and spring, the onset of snow melt and melt pond formation in the summer, and fall freeze up. The bimodal late summer distribution demonstrates the combinat…
University of Maryland, Baltimore County（马里兰大学巴尔的摩县分校）
Accurately forecasting Arctic sea ice from subseasonal to seasonal scales has been a major scientific effort with fundamental challenges at play. In addition to physics-based earth system models, researchers have been applying multiple statistical and machine learning models for sea ice forecasting. Looking at the potential of data-driven sea ice forecasting, we propose an attention-based Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) ensemble method to predict monthly sea ice extent up to 1 month ahead. Using daily and monthly satellite retrieved sea ice data from NSIDC and atmospheric and oceanic variables f…
Dissipation within the turbulent boundary layer under sea ice is one of many processes contributing to wave energy attenuation in ice-covered seas. Although recent observations suggest that the contribution of that process to the total energy dissipation is significant, its parameterizations used in spectral wave models are based on fairly crude, heuristic approximations. In this paper, an improved source term for the under-ice turbulent dissipation is proposed, taking into account the spectral nature of that process (as opposed to parameterizations based on the so-called representative wave),…
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, the extreme weather events triggering the variability in Arctic ice cover has drawn increasing attention. A non-Gaussian $α$-stable Lévy process is thought to be an appropriate model to describe such extreme event. The maximal likely trajectory, based on the nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, is applied to a nonautonomous Arctic sea ice system under $α$-stable Lévy noise. Two types of tipping times, the early-warning tipping time and the disaster-happening tipping time, are used to predict the critical time for the maximal likely transition…
