In this study we perform online sea ice bias correction within a GFDL global ice-ocean model. For this, we use a convolutional neural network (CNN) which was developed in a previous study (Gregory et al., 2023) for the purpose of predicting sea ice concentration (SIC) data assimilation (DA) increments. An initial implementation of the CNN shows systematic improvements in SIC biases relative to the free-running model, however large summertime errors remain. We show that these residual errors can be significantly improved with a data augmentation approach, in which sequential CNN and DA corrections are applied to a new simulation over the training period. This then provides a new training data set with which to refine the weights of the initial network. We propose that this machine-learned correction scheme could be utilized for generating improved initial conditions, and also for real-time sea ice bias correction within seasonal-to-subseasonal sea ice forecasts.
We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the …
A new ocean wave/sea-ice interaction model is proposed that simulates how a directional wave spectrum evolves as it travels through an arbitrary finite array of circular ice floes, where wave/ice dynamics are entirely governed by wave scattering effects. The model is applied to characterise the wave reflection and transmission properties of a strip of ice floes, such as an ice edge band. A method is devised to extract the reflected and transmitted directional wave spectra produced by the array. The method builds upon an integral mapping from polar to Cartesian coordinates of the scattered wave…
Habitability of exoplanet's deepest oceans could be limited by the presence of high-pressure ices at their base. New work demonstrates that efficient chemical transport within deep planetary ice mantles is possible through significant salt incorporation within the high-pressure ice.
The sea-ice cover of the Arctic Ocean is an important element of the climate and ocean system in the Northern Hemisphere as it impacts albedo, atmospheric pressure regimes, CO2-exchange at the ocean/atmosphere interface as well as the North Atlantic freshwater budget and thermohaline circulation [1]. Due to global warming, the Arctic sea-ice cover is presently evolving at an unprecedent rate towards full melt during the summer season, driving the so-called "Arctic amplification" [2]. However, the Arctic sea-ice has also experienced large amplitude variations, from seasonal to orbital (Milankov…
A model-data inversion is applied to a very large observational dataset collected in the Southern Ocean north of the Ross Sea during late autumn to early winter, producing estimates of the frequency-dependent rate of dissipation by sea ice. The modeling platform is WAVEWATCH III(R) which accounts for non-stationarity, advection, wave generation, and other relevant processes. The resulting 9477 dissipation profiles are co-located with other variables such as ice thickness to quantify correlations which might be exploited in later studies to improve predictions. Mean dissipation profiles from th…
Of profound astrobiological interest, Enceladus appears to have a global subsurface ocean that is salty, indicating water-rock reaction at present or in the past, important for its habitability. Here, we investigate how salinity and the partition of heat production between the silicate core and the ice shell affect ocean dynamics and the associated heat transport -- a key factor that determines the equilibrium ice shell geometry. Assuming steady state conditions, we show that the meridional overturning circulation of the ocean, driven by heat and salt exchange with the ice, has opposing signs …
Various climate states at high obliquity are realized for a range of stellar irradiance using a dynamical atmosphere-ocean-sea ice climate model in an Aquaplanet configuration. Three stable climate states are obtained that differ in the extent of the sea ice cover. For low values of irradiance the model simulates a Cryoplanet that has a perennial global sea ice cover. By increasing stellar irradiance, transitions occur to an Uncapped Cryoplanet with a perennial equatorial sea ice belt, and eventually to an Aquaplanet with no ice. Using an emulator model we find that the Uncapped Cryoplanet is …
An experimental model of reflection and transmission of ocean waves by an ice floe is presented. Evolution of mechanically-generated, regular waves is monitored in front and in the lee of a solitary, square floe, made of a synthetic material. Results confirm dependence of reflection and transmission on the period of the incident wave. Results also indicate that wave overwash on the floe affects reflection and transmission.
Wave attenuation by ice floes is an important parameter for modelling the Arctic Oceans. At present, attenuation coefficients are extracted from linear models as a function of the incident wave period and floe thickness. Recent explorations in the Antarctic Mixed Ice Zone (MIZ) revealed a further dependence on wave amplitude, suggesting that nonlinear contributions are non-negligible. An experimental model for wave attenuation by a single ice floe in a wave flume is here presented. Observations are compared with linear predictions based on wave scattering. Results indicate that linear models p…
Freshwater forcing from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have a wide range of impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present-2250) climate simulations performed using a fully coupled numerical model integrated under future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios IPCC RCP4.5 and 8.5, with meltwater discharge provided by a dynamic-thermodynamic ice sheet model. Accounting for Antarctica's meltwater contribution raises sub-surface ocean temperatures by 1 C at the ice margin, beyond rates currently projected. In contrast, 2-10 C cooler surface air and ocean temperatur…
Borey: A High-Resolution Regional Atmosphere-Ocean-Sea Ice-Wave Forecasting System and Hindcast Dataset for the Barents and Kara Seas
Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology（斯科尔科沃科学技术学院）；Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences（俄罗斯科学院谢尔肖夫海洋研究所）；Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology（莫斯科物理技术学院）；Autonomous Non-Profit Organization Artificial Intelligence Research Institute (AIRI)（人工智能研究院（AIRI））
Under both engineering and natural conditions on Earth and in the Universe, some gas hydrates are found to be stabilised outside their window of thermodynamic stability by the formation of an ice layer-a phenomenon termed self-preservation. Low occupancy surface regions on type I CO2 clathrate structures together with the self-preserving ice layer lead to an effective buoyancy for these structures which restricts the size range of particles that float in the ocean on Enceladus, Pluto and similar oceanic worlds. Our goal here is to investigate the implications of Lifshitz forces and low occupan…
Despite a recent resurgence of observational studies attempting to quantify the ice-induced attenuation of ocean waves in polar oceans, the physical processes governing this wave attenuation phenomenon are still poorly understood. Most analyses have attempted to relate the spatial rate of wave attenuation to wave frequency, but have not considered how this relationship depends on ice, wave and atmospheric conditions. An in-depth analysis of the wave-buoy data collected during the 2017 PIPERS programme in the Ross Sea is conducted. Standard techniques are used to estimate the spatial rate of wa…
Tidally locked terrestrial planets around low-mass stars are the prime targets for future atmospheric characterizations of potentially habitable systems, especially the three nearby ones--Proxima b, TRAPPIST-1e, and LHS 1140b. Previous studies suggest that if these planets have surface ocean they would be in an eyeball-like climate state: ice-free in the vicinity of the substellar point and ice-covered in the rest regions. However, an important component of the climate system--sea ice dynamics has not been well studied in previous studies. A fundamental question is: would the open ocean be sta…
Controls on the ocean response to idealized Antarctic meltwater input
Courant Institute School of Mathematics, Computing, and Data Science, New York University（纽约大学柯朗数学科学研究所）；Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校斯克里普斯海洋学研究所）
We present a discrete element method (DEM) model to simulate the mechanical behavior of sea ice in response to ocean waves. The interaction of ocean waves and sea ice can potentially lead to the fracture and fragmentation of sea ice depending on the wave amplitude and period. The fracture behavior of sea ice is explicitly modeled by a DEM method, where sea ice is modeled by densely packed spherical particles with finite size. These particles are bonded together at their contact points through mechanical bonds that can sustain both tensile and compressive forces and moments. Fracturing can be n…
The ability of viscous layer models to describe the attenuation of waves propagating in grease-pancake ice covered ocean is investigated. In particular, the Keller's model Keller [1998], the two-layer viscous model [De Carolis and Desiderio 2002] and the close-packing model [De Santi and Olla 2017] are extensively validated by using wave attenuation data collected during two different field campaigns (Weddell Sea, Antarctica, April 2000; western Arctic Ocean, autumn 2015). We use these data to validate the three models by minimizing the differences between the measured and model wave attenuati…
This paper presents the first estimate of the seasonal cycle of ocean and sea ice net heat and freshwater (FW) fluxes around the boundary of the Arctic Ocean. The ocean transports are estimated primarily using 138 moored instruments deployed in September 2005 to August 2006 across the four main Arctic gateways: Davis, Fram and Bering Straits, and the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Sea ice transports are estimated from a sea ice assimilation product. Monthly velocity fields are calculated with a box inverse model that enforces volume and salinity conservation. The resulting net ocean and sea ice he…
Two drifting wave buoys were deployed in the central Arctic Ocean, north of the Laptev Sea, where there are historically no wave observations available. An experimental wave buoy was deployed alongside a commercial buoy. The inter-buoy comparison showed that the experimental buoy measured wave heights and periods accurately; so the buoy data were used to study the predictability of a wave-ice model in this region. The first event we focused was when both buoys observed a sudden decrease in significant wave heights $H_{m0}$. The sudden decrease was caused by the change of wind directions from a…
Modeling and understanding sea ice dynamics in marginal ice zones relies on acquiring Lagrangian ice floe measurements. However, optical satellite images are susceptible to atmospheric noise, leading to gaps in the retrieved time series of floe positions. This paper presents an efficient and statistically accurate nonlinear dynamical interpolation framework for recovering missing floe observations. It exploits a balanced physics-based and data-driven construction to address the challenges posed by the high-dimensional and nonlinear nature of the coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean system, where effec…
The marginal ice zone is the dynamic interface between the open ocean and consolidated inner pack ice. Surface gravity waves regulate marginal ice zone extent and properties, and, hence, fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean, and ice advance and retreat. Over the past decade, seminal experimental campaigns have generated much needed measurements of wave evolution in the marginal ice zone, which, notwithstanding the prominent knowledge gaps that remain, are underpinning major advances in understanding the region's role in the climate system. Here, we report three-dimensional imaging of waves …
An experimental model of transmission of ocean waves by an ice floe is presented. Thin plastic plates with different material properties and thicknesses are used to model the floe. Regular incident waves with different periods and steepnesses are used, ranging from gently-sloping to storm-like conditions. A wave gauge is used to measure the water surface elevation in the lee of the floe. The depth of wave overwash on the floe is measured by a gauge in the centre of the floe's upper surface. Results show transmitted waves are regular for gently-sloping incident waves but irregular for storm-lik…
Climate and ocean circulation changes toward a modern snowball Earth
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology（日本海洋地球科学技术局）；Earth-Life Science Institute (ELSI), Institute of Future Science, Institute of Science Tokyo（东京科学大学未来科学研究所生命起源研究所）；Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo（东京大学大气海洋研究所）；University of the Ryukyus（冲绳大学）；Department of Geophysics, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University（东北大学理学研究科地球物理学科）；National Institute of Polar Research（国立极地研究所）；The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, SOKENDAI（综合研究大学院大学）
Increased economic activity and research interest in the Arctic raise the need for better wave forecasts in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). Mathematical and numerical models of wave propagation in sea ice would benefit from more in situ data for validation. This study presents shipborne wave measurements from the MIZ where altimeter readings are corrected for ship motion to obtain estimated single point ocean surface elevation. From the combined measurements, we obtain significant wave height and zero up-crossing period, as well as one-dimensional wave spectra. In addition, we provide spectra and…
During the last ice age several quasi-periodic abrupt warming events took place. Known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events their effects were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest temperature anomalies. Paleoclimate data shows that the fluctuations often occurred right after massive glacial meltwater releases in the North Atlantic and in bursts of three or four with progressively decreasing strengths. In this study a simple dynamical model of an overturning circulation and sea ice is developed with the goal of understanding the fundamental mechanisms that could have …
High-resolution regional hindcasting of ocean and sea ice plays an important role in the assessment of shipping and operational risks in the Arctic Ocean. The ice-ocean model NEMO-LIM3 was modified to improve its simulation quality for appropriate spatio-temporal resolutions. A multigrid model setup with connected coarse- (14 km) and fine-resolution (5 km) model configurations was devised. These two configurations were implemented and run separately. The resulting computational cost was lower when compared to that of the built-in AGRIF nesting system. Ice and tracer boundary-condition schemes …
Meltwater transport and mixing layer growth near the ice--ocean interface
Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, Centrale Med, IRPHE（艾克斯马赛大学）；Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, ENS de Lyon, CNRS, LPENSL（里昂第一大学）；Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, Institut de Physique de Nice（蔚蓝海岸大学）
Sea ice attenuates waves propagating from the open ocean. Here we model the evolution of energetic unidirectional random waves in the marginal ice zone with a nonlinear Schrödinger equation, with a frequency dependent dissipative term consistent with current model paradigms and recent field observations. The preferential dissipation of high frequency components results in a concurrent downshift of the spectral peak that leads to a less than exponential energy decay, but at a lower rate compared to a corresponding linear model. Attenuation and downshift contrast nonlinearity, and nonlinear wave…
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice-albedo feedback. Here we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that while the ice-albedo feedb…
Sea ice motions play an important role in the polar climate system by transporting pollutants, heat, water and salt as well as changing the ice cover. Numerous physics-based models have been constructed to represent the sea ice dynamical interaction with the atmosphere and ocean. In this study, we propose a new data-driven deep-learning approach that utilizes a convolutional neural network (CNN) to model how Arctic sea ice moves in response to surface winds given its initial ice velocity and concentration a day earlier. Results show that CNN computes the sea ice response with a correlation of …
A model of ice floe breakup under ocean wave forcing in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) is proposed to investigate how floe size distribution (FSD) evolves under repeated wave breakup events. A three-dimensional linear model of ocean wave scattering by a finite array of compliant circular ice floes is coupled to a flexural failure model, which breaks a floe into two floes provided the two-dimensional stress field satisfies a breakup criterion. A closed-feedback loop algorithm is devised, which (i)~solves wave scattering problem for a given FSD under time-harmonic plane wave forcing, (ii)~computes …
During the last ice age there were several quasi-periodic abrupt warming events. The climatic effects of the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest and most abrupt temperature anomalies. Similar but weaker oscillations also took place during the interglacial period. This paper proposes an auto-oscillatory mechanism between sea ice and convective deep water formation in the north Atlantic as the source of the persistent cycles. A simple dynamical model is constructed by coupling and slightly modifying two existing models …
Neptune: An AI model for Global Ocean Subseasonal Prediction
University of Salento（萨伦托大学）；CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change（CMCC基金会——地中海气候变化中心）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；CUNY New York City College of Technology（纽约市立大学纽约城市技术学院）
There is widespread agreement that ice sheets flowed into the ocean in tropical latitudes at sea level during the Earth's past. Whether these extreme ice ages were snowball Earth events, with the entire surface covered in ice, or whether ocean water remained ice free in regions about the equator, continues to be controversial. For the latter situation to occur, the effect of positive ice albedo feedback would have to be damped to stabilize an advancing ice sheet shy of the equator. In this paper we analyze a conceptual model comprised of a zonally averaged surface temperature equation coupled …
Accurate predictions of basal melt rates on ice shelves are necessary for precise projections of the future behaviour of ice sheets. The computational expense associated with completely resolving the cavity circulation using an ocean model makes this approach unfeasible for multi-century simulations, and parametrizations of melt rates are required. At present, some of the most advanced melt rate parametrizations are based on a one-dimensional approximation to the melt rate that emerges from the theory of subglacial plumes applied to ice shelves with constant basal slopes and uniform ambient oc…
A Fast and Physically Grounded Ocean Model for GCMs: The Dynamical Slab Ocean Model of the Generic-PCM (rev. 3423)
Observatoire astronomique de l’Université de Genève（日内瓦大学天文台）；Centre pour la vie dans l’Univers de l’Université de Genève（日内瓦大学宇宙生命中心）；Group of Applied Physics and Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva（日内瓦大学应用物理组与环境科学研究所）；Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat LOCEAN/IPSL, Sorbonne Université（索邦大学海洋与气候实验室LOCEAN/IPSL）；Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université（法国国家科学研究中心/索邦大学动力气象学实验室/IPSL）；Laboratoire d’astrophysique（天体物理学实验室）
1) The annual cycle of atmospheric methane in southern high latitudes is extremely highly correlated with Antarctic sea ice extent. 2) The annual cycle of atmospheric methane in the Arctic is highly correlated with Antarctic or Arctic plus Antarctic sea ice extent. 3) We propose the global annual cycle of atmospheric methane is largely driven by Antarctic sea ice dynamics, with relatively stronger influence from other fluxes (probably the biota) in the Northern Hemisphere. 4) We propose degassing during sea ice freeze and temperature dependent solubility in the ocean dominate the annual methan…
