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arXiv 2005.14361q-fin.PRstat.AP
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状态转换时变模型下的能源合同定价

Pricing Energy Contracts under Regime Switching Time-Changed models

Konrad Gajewski, Sebastian Ferrando, Pablo Olivares

摘要:

受欢迎的Black-Scholes-Merton(BSM)模型的缺点导致模型可以更准确地模拟能源市场中基础资产的行为,特别是在电力和未来石油价格方面。在本文中,我们考虑了一类状态转换时变Levy过程,它建立在BSM模型,通过纳入通过一个随机时钟跳,以及随机变化的参数,根据两个状态的连续时间马尔可夫链。我们实现定价方法的基础上展开的特征函数在\cite{Fourier}。最后,我们估计模型的参数,将历史能源数据和期权报价使用各种方法。

英文摘要:

The shortcomings of the popular Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model have led to models which could more accurately model the behavior of the underlying assets in energy markets, particularly in electricity and future oil prices. In this paper we consider a class of regime switching time-changed Levy processes, which builds upon the BSM model by incorporating jumps through a random clock, as well as randomly varying parameters according to a two-state continuous-time Markov chain. We implement pricing methods based on expansions of the characteristic function as in \cite{Fourier}. Finally, we estimate the parameters of the model by incorporating historic energy data and option quotes using a variety of methods.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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