In this paper, we consider the task of predicting travel times between two arbitrary points in an urban scenario. We view this problem from two temporal perspectives: long-term forecasting with a horizon of several days and short-term forecasting with a horizon of one hour. Both of these perspectives are relevant for planning tasks in the context of urban mobility and transportation services. We utilize tree-based ensemble methods that we train and evaluate on a dataset of taxi trip records from New York City. Through extensive data analysis, we identify relevant temporal and spatial features. We also engineer additional features based on weather and routing data. The latter is obtained via a routing solver operating on the road network. The computational results show that the addition of this routing data can be beneficial to the model performance. Moreover, employing different models for short and long-term prediction is useful as short-term models are better suited to mirror current traffic conditions. In fact, we show that accurate short-term predictions may be obtained with only little training data.
We develop ensemble Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to classify the transportation mode of trip data collected as part of a large-scale smartphone travel survey in Montreal, Canada. Our proposed ensemble library is composed of a series of CNN models with different hyper-parameter values and CNN architectures. In our final model, we combine the output of CNN models using "average voting", "majority voting" and "optimal weights" methods. Furthermore, we exploit the ensemble library by deploying a Random Forest model as a meta-learner. The ensemble method with random forest as meta-learner s…
Tree ensembles such as random forests and boosted trees are accurate but difficult to understand, debug and deploy. In this work, we provide the inTrees (interpretable trees) framework that extracts, measures, prunes and selects rules from a tree ensemble, and calculates frequent variable interactions. An rule-based learner, referred to as the simplified tree ensemble learner (STEL), can also be formed and used for future prediction. The inTrees framework can applied to both classification and regression problems, and is applicable to many types of tree ensembles, e.g., random forests, regular…
Decision tree ensembles are widely used and competitive learning models. Despite their success, popular toolkits for learning tree ensembles have limited modeling capabilities. For instance, these toolkits support a limited number of loss functions and are restricted to single task learning. We propose a flexible framework for learning tree ensembles, which goes beyond existing toolkits to support arbitrary loss functions, missing responses, and multi-task learning. Our framework builds on differentiable (a.k.a. soft) tree ensembles, which can be trained using first-order methods. However, unl…
Ensembles of decision trees perform well on many problems, but are not interpretable. In contrast to existing approaches in interpretability that focus on explaining relationships between features and predictions, we propose an alternative approach to interpret tree ensemble classifiers by surfacing representative points for each class -- prototypes. We introduce a new distance for Gradient Boosted Tree models, and propose new, adaptive prototype selection methods with theoretical guarantees, with the flexibility to choose a different number of prototypes in each class. We demonstrate our meth…
The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, SOKENDAI（综合研究大学院大学）；National Institute of Informatics（国立信息学研究所）
In practical situations, the tree ensemble is one of the most popular models along with neural networks. A soft tree is a variant of a decision tree. Instead of using a greedy method for searching splitting rules, the soft tree is trained using a gradient method in which the entire splitting operation is formulated in a differentiable form. Although ensembles of such soft trees have been used increasingly in recent years, little theoretical work has been done to understand their behavior. By considering an ensemble of infinite soft trees, this paper introduces and studies the Tree Neural Tange…
Tree based ensembles such as Breiman's random forest (RF) and Gradient Boosted Trees (GBT) can be interpreted as implicit kernel generators, where the ensuing proximity matrix represents the data-driven tree ensemble kernel. Kernel perspective on the RF has been used to develop a principled framework for theoretical investigation of its statistical properties. Recently, it has been shown that the kernel interpretation is germane to other tree-based ensembles e.g. GBTs. However, practical utility of the links between kernels and the tree ensembles has not been widely explored and systematically…
How can we identify the training examples that contribute most to the prediction of a tree ensemble? In this paper, we introduce TREX, an explanation system that provides instance-attribution explanations for tree ensembles, such as random forests and gradient boosted trees. TREX builds on the representer point framework previously developed for explaining deep neural networks. Since tree ensembles are non-differentiable, we define a kernel that captures the structure of the specific tree ensemble. By using this kernel in kernel logistic regression or a support vector machine, TREX builds a su…
Kernels ensuing from tree ensembles such as random forest (RF) or gradient boosted trees (GBT), when used for kernel learning, have been shown to be competitive to their respective tree ensembles (particularly in higher dimensional scenarios). On the other hand, it has been also shown that performance of the kernel algorithms depends on the degree of the kernel-target alignment. However, the kernel-target alignment for kernel learning based on the tree ensembles has not been investigated and filling this gap is the main goal of our work. Using the eigenanalysis of the kernel matrix, we demonst…
The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, SOKENDAI（综合研究大学院大学（SOKENDAI））；National Institute of Informatics（国立信息学研究所）
A soft tree is an actively studied variant of a decision tree that updates splitting rules using the gradient method. Although soft trees can take various architectures, their impact is not theoretically well known. In this paper, we formulate and analyze the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) induced by soft tree ensembles for arbitrary tree architectures. This kernel leads to the remarkable finding that only the number of leaves at each depth is relevant for the tree architecture in ensemble learning with an infinite number of trees. In other words, if the number of leaves at each depth is fixed, t…
Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio)（里约热内卢天主教大学）；Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）
The use of machine learning algorithms in finance, medicine, and criminal justice can deeply impact human lives. As a consequence, research into interpretable machine learning has rapidly grown in an attempt to better control and fix possible sources of mistakes and biases. Tree ensembles offer a good prediction quality in various domains, but the concurrent use of multiple trees reduces the interpretability of the ensemble. Against this background, we study born-again tree ensembles, i.e., the process of constructing a single decision tree of minimum size that reproduces the exact same behavi…
We consider the problem of learning decision rules for prediction with feature budget constraint. In particular, we are interested in pruning an ensemble of decision trees to reduce expected feature cost while maintaining high prediction accuracy for any test example. We propose a novel 0-1 integer program formulation for ensemble pruning. Our pruning formulation is general - it takes any ensemble of decision trees as input. By explicitly accounting for feature-sharing across trees together with accuracy/cost trade-off, our method is able to significantly reduce feature cost by pruning subtree…
Recent papers have demonstrated that ensemble stumps and trees could be vulnerable to small input perturbations, so robustness verification and defense for those models have become an important research problem. However, due to the structure of decision trees, where each node makes decision purely based on one feature value, all the previous works only consider the $\ell_\infty$ norm perturbation. To study robustness with respect to a general $\ell_p$ norm perturbation, one has to consider the correlation between perturbations on different features, which has not been handled by previous algor…
Recent advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence are now being considered in safety-critical autonomous systems where software defects may cause severe harm to humans and the environment. Design organizations in these domains are currently unable to provide convincing arguments that their systems are safe to operate when machine learning algorithms are used to implement their software. In this paper, we present an efficient method to extract equivalence classes from decision trees and tree ensembles, and to formally verify that their input-output mappings comply with requirement…
CoreML Group Apple Inc.（苹果公司CoreML团队）；Department of Mathematics Florida State University（佛罗里达州立大学数学系）；Department of Statistics Florida State University（佛罗里达州立大学统计系）
Tree ensembles are flexible predictive models that can capture relevant variables and to some extent their interactions in a compact and interpretable manner. Most algorithms for obtaining tree ensembles are based on versions of boosting or Random Forest. Previous work showed that boosting algorithms exhibit a cyclic behavior of selecting the same tree again and again due to the way the loss is optimized. At the same time, Random Forest is not based on loss optimization and obtains a more complex and less interpretable model. In this paper we present a novel method for obtaining compact tree e…
Machine learning algorithms, however effective, are known to be vulnerable in adversarial scenarios where a malicious user may inject manipulated instances. In this work we focus on evasion attacks, where a model is trained in a safe environment and exposed to attacks at test time. The attacker aims at finding a minimal perturbation of a test instance that changes the model outcome. We propose a model-agnostic strategy that builds a robust ensemble by training its basic models on feature-based partitions of the given dataset. Our algorithm guarantees that the majority of the models in the ense…
ControlBurn is a Python package to construct feature-sparse tree ensembles that support nonlinear feature selection and interpretable machine learning. The algorithms in this package first build large tree ensembles that prioritize basis functions with few features and then select a feature-sparse subset of these basis functions using a weighted lasso optimization criterion. The package includes visualizations to analyze the features selected by the ensemble and their impact on predictions. Hence ControlBurn offers the accuracy and flexibility of tree-ensemble models and the interpretability o…
Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学工程与信息技术学院）
Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) are popular machine learning algorithms with implementations such as LightGBM and in popular machine learning toolkits like Scikit-Learn. Many implementations can only produce trees in an offline manner and in a greedy manner. We explore ways to convert existing GBDT implementations to known neural network architectures with minimal performance loss in order to allow decision splits to be updated in an online manner and provide extensions to allow splits points to be altered as a neural architecture search problem. We provide learning bounds for our neura…
McGill University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics（麦吉尔大学数学与统计学系）；Université Marie et Louis Pasteur, CNRS, LmB (UMR 6623)（玛丽·路易斯·帕斯特大学、法国国家科学研究中心、LmB（UMR 6623））
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill（北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校）；Colby College（科尔比学院）
Gradient boosted decision trees are some of the most popular algorithms in applied machine learning. They are a flexible and powerful tool that can robustly fit to any tabular dataset in a scalable and computationally efficient way. One of the most critical parameters to tune when fitting these models are the various penalty terms used to distinguish signal from noise in the current model. These penalties are effective in practice, but are lacking in robust theoretical justifications. In this paper we develop and present a novel theoretically justified hypothesis test of split quality for grad…
Monash University（莫纳什大学）；University of Waikato（怀卡托大学）
Decision tree ensembles are widely used in practice. In this work, we study in ensemble settings the effectiveness of replacing the split strategy for the state-of-the-art online tree learner, Hoeffding Tree, with a rigorous but more eager splitting strategy that we had previously published as Hoeffding AnyTime Tree. Hoeffding AnyTime Tree (HATT), uses the Hoeffding Test to determine whether the current best candidate split is superior to the current split, with the possibility of revision, while Hoeffding Tree aims to determine whether the top candidate is better than the second best and if a…
Tree ensembles, such as random forest and boosted trees, are renowned for their high prediction performance, whereas their interpretability is critically limited. In this paper, we propose a post processing method that improves the model interpretability of tree ensembles. After learning a complex tree ensembles in a standard way, we approximate it by a simpler model that is interpretable for human. To obtain the simpler model, we derive the EM algorithm minimizing the KL divergence from the complex ensemble. A synthetic experiment showed that a complicated tree ensemble was approximated reaso…
Tree ensembles, such as random forests and boosted trees, are renowned for their high prediction performance. However, their interpretability is critically limited due to the enormous complexity. In this study, we present a method to make a complex tree ensemble interpretable by simplifying the model. Specifically, we formalize the simplification of tree ensembles as a model selection problem. Given a complex tree ensemble, we aim at obtaining the simplest representation that is essentially equivalent to the original one. To this end, we derive a Bayesian model selection algorithm that optimiz…
Adversarial robustness is one of the essential safety criteria for guaranteeing the reliability of machine learning models. While various adversarial robustness testing approaches were introduced in the last decade, we note that most of them are incompatible with non-differentiable models such as tree ensembles. Since tree ensembles are widely used in industry, this reveals a crucial gap between adversarial robustness research and practical applications. This paper proposes a novel whitebox adversarial robustness testing approach for tree ensemble models. Concretely, the proposed approach smoo…
National Research University Higher School of Economics（国立研究型大学高等经济学院）
In machine learning ensemble methods have demonstrated high accuracy for the variety of problems in different areas. Two notable ensemble methods widely used in practice are gradient boosting and random forests. In this paper we present InfiniteBoost - a novel algorithm, which combines important properties of these two approaches. The algorithm constructs the ensemble of trees for which two properties hold: trees of the ensemble incorporate the mistakes done by others; at the same time the ensemble could contain the infinite number of trees without the over-fitting effect. The proposed algorit…
It is common that a trained classification model is applied to the operating data that is deviated from the training data because of noise. This paper demonstrates that an ensemble classifier, Diversified Multiple Tree (DMT), is more robust in classifying noisy data than other widely used ensemble methods. DMT is tested on three real world biomedical data sets from different laboratories in comparison with four benchmark ensemble classifiers. Experimental results show that DMT is significantly more accurate than other benchmark ensemble classifiers on noisy test data. We also discuss a limitat…
In this paper we propose a method to build a neural network that is similar to an ensemble of decision trees. We first illustrate how to convert a learned ensemble of decision trees to a single neural network with one hidden layer and an input transformation. We then relax some properties of this network such as thresholds and activation functions to train an approximately equivalent decision tree ensemble. The final model, Hammock, is surprisingly simple: a fully connected two layers neural network where the input is quantized and one-hot encoded. Experiments on large and small datasets show …
Yandex；National Research University Higher School of Economics（俄罗斯国立高等经济研究大学）
Most decision tree induction algorithms are based on a greedy top-down recursive partitioning strategy for tree growth. In this paper, we propose several methods for induction of decision trees and their ensembles based on evolutionary algorithms. The main difference of our approach is using real-valued vector representation of decision tree that allows to use a large number of different optimization algorithms, as well as optimize the whole tree or ensemble for avoiding local optima. Differential evolution and evolution strategies were chosen as optimization algorithms, as they have good resu…
We propose to use boosted regression trees as a way to compute human-interpretable solutions to reinforcement learning problems. Boosting combines several regression trees to improve their accuracy without significantly reducing their inherent interpretability. Prior work has focused independently on reinforcement learning and on interpretable machine learning, but there has been little progress in interpretable reinforcement learning. Our experimental results show that boosted regression trees compute solutions that are both interpretable and match the quality of leading reinforcement learnin…
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）；Google Brain（谷歌大脑）
Neural networks and tree ensembles are state-of-the-art learners, each with its unique statistical and computational advantages. We aim to combine these advantages by introducing a new layer for neural networks, composed of an ensemble of differentiable decision trees (a.k.a. soft trees). While differentiable trees demonstrate promising results in the literature, they are typically slow in training and inference as they do not support conditional computation. We mitigate this issue by introducing a new sparse activation function for sample routing, and implement true conditional computation by…
Interpreting predictions from tree ensemble methods such as gradient boosting machines and random forests is important, yet feature attribution for trees is often heuristic and not individualized for each prediction. Here we show that popular feature attribution methods are inconsistent, meaning they can lower a feature's assigned importance when the true impact of that feature actually increases. This is a fundamental problem that casts doubt on any comparison between features. To address it we turn to recent applications of game theory and develop fast exact tree solutions for SHAP (SHapley …
Ghent University - imec, IDLab（根特大学 - imec, IDLab）
Models obtained by decision tree induction techniques excel in being interpretable.However, they can be prone to overfitting, which results in a low predictive performance. Ensemble techniques are able to achieve a higher accuracy. However, this comes at a cost of losing interpretability of the resulting model. This makes ensemble techniques impractical in applications where decision support, instead of decision making, is crucial. To bridge this gap, we present the GENESIM algorithm that transforms an ensemble of decision trees to a single decision tree with an enhanced predictive performance…
Classifier evasion consists in finding for a given instance $x$ the nearest instance $x'$ such that the classifier predictions of $x$ and $x'$ are different. We present two novel algorithms for systematically computing evasions for tree ensembles such as boosted trees and random forests. Our first algorithm uses a Mixed Integer Linear Program solver and finds the optimal evading instance under an expressive set of constraints. Our second algorithm trades off optimality for speed by using symbolic prediction, a novel algorithm for fast finite differences on tree ensembles. On a digit recognitio…
City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学）；Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）
This paper develops a novel stochastic tree ensemble method for nonlinear regression, which we refer to as XBART, short for Accelerated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. By combining regularization and stochastic search strategies from Bayesian modeling with computationally efficient techniques from recursive partitioning approaches, the new method attains state-of-the-art performance: in many settings it is both faster and more accurate than the widely-used XGBoost algorithm. Via careful simulation studies, we demonstrate that our new approach provides accurate point-wise estimates of the m…
We study the robustness verification problem for tree-based models, including decision trees, random forests (RFs) and gradient boosted decision trees (GBDTs). Formal robustness verification of decision tree ensembles involves finding the exact minimal adversarial perturbation or a guaranteed lower bound of it. Existing approaches find the minimal adversarial perturbation by a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) problem, which takes exponential time so is impractical for large ensembles. Although this verification problem is NP-complete in general, we give a more precise complexity charact…
Recent studies have adopted an approach of selecting accurate and diverse trees based on individual or collective performance within an ensemble for classification and regression problems. This work follows in the wake of these investigations and considers the possibility of growing a forest of optimal survival trees. Initially, a large set of survival trees are grown using the method of random survival forest. The grown trees are then ranked from smallest to highest value of their prediction error using out-of-bag observations for each respective survival tree. The top ranked survival trees a…
We propose a novel "tree-averaging" model that utilizes the ensemble of classification and regression trees (CART). Each constituent tree is estimated with a subset of similar data. We treat this grouping of subsets as Bayesian ensemble trees (BET) and model them as an infinite mixture Dirichlet process. We show that BET adapts to data heterogeneity and accurately estimates each component. Compared with the bootstrap-aggregating approach, BET shows improved prediction performance with fewer trees. We develop an efficient estimating procedure with improved sampling strategies in both CART and m…
In the travel industry, online customers book their travel itinerary according to several features, like cost and duration of the travel or the quality of amenities. To provide personalized recommendations for travel searches, an appropriate segmentation of customers is required. Clustering ensemble approaches were developed to overcome well-known problems of classical clustering approaches, that each rely on a different theoretical model and can thus identify in the data space only clusters corresponding to this model. Clustering ensemble approaches combine multiple clustering results, each f…
University of Florida（佛罗里达大学）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）
Machine learning has proved to be very successful for making predictions in travel behavior modeling. However, most machine-learning models have complex model structures and offer little or no explanation as to how they arrive at these predictions. Interpretations about travel behavior models are essential for decision makers to understand travelers' preferences and plan policy interventions accordingly. Therefore, this paper proposes to apply and extend the model distillation approach, a model-agnostic machine-learning interpretation method, to explain how a black-box travel mode choice model…
University of Granada（格拉纳达大学）；Mälardalen University（梅拉达伦大学）
Differences in data size per class, also known as imbalanced data distribution, have become a common problem affecting data quality. Big Data scenarios pose a new challenge to traditional imbalanced classification algorithms, since they are not prepared to work with such amount of data. Split data strategies and lack of data in the minority class due to the use of MapReduce paradigm have posed new challenges for tackling the imbalance between classes in Big Data scenarios. Ensembles have shown to be able to successfully address imbalanced data problems. Smart Data refers to data of enough qual…
Anderson School of Management, University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森管理学院）
Tree ensemble models such as random forests and boosted trees are among the most widely used and practically successful predictive models in applied machine learning and business analytics. Although such models have been used to make predictions based on exogenous, uncontrollable independent variables, they are increasingly being used to make predictions where the independent variables are controllable and are also decision variables. In this paper, we study the problem of tree ensemble optimization: given a tree ensemble that predicts some dependent variable using controllable independent var…
In this article, we have proposed several approaches for post processing a large ensemble of prediction models or rules. The results from our simulations show that the post processing methods we have considered here are promising. We have used the techniques developed here for estimation of quantitative traits from markers, on the benchmark "Bostob Housing"data set and in some simulations. In most cases, the produced models had better prediction performance than, for example, the ones produced by the random forest or the rulefit algorithms.
Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；BASF SE（巴斯夫股份公司）；Cooperative State University（合作州立大学）
Tree ensembles can be well-suited for black-box optimization tasks such as algorithm tuning and neural architecture search, as they achieve good predictive performance with little or no manual tuning, naturally handle discrete feature spaces, and are relatively insensitive to outliers in the training data. Two well-known challenges in using tree ensembles for black-box optimization are (i) effectively quantifying model uncertainty for exploration and (ii) optimizing over the piece-wise constant acquisition function. To address both points simultaneously, we propose using the kernel interpretat…
EPFL（洛桑联邦理工学院）；IBM Research Lab, Zurich（IBM苏黎世研究实验室）
We study the effectiveness of non-uniform randomized feature selection in decision tree classification. We experimentally evaluate two feature selection methodologies, based on information extracted from the provided dataset: $(i)$ \emph{leverage scores-based} and $(ii)$ \emph{norm-based} feature selection. Experimental evaluation of the proposed feature selection techniques indicate that such approaches might be more effective compared to naive uniform feature selection and moreover having comparable performance to the random forest algorithm [3]
Optimal probabilistic feature shifts for reclassification in tree ensembles
Institute of Mathematics (IMAG), Universidad de Granada（格拉纳达大学数学研究所）；Institute of Mathematics (IMUS), Universidad de Sevilla（塞维利亚大学数学研究所）；Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学信息系统与公共政策学院）
In this paper, a robust non-parametric measure of statistical dependence, or correlation, between two random variables is presented. The proposed coefficient is a permutation-like statistic that quantifies how much the observed sample S_n : {(X_i , Y_i), i = 1 . . . n} is discriminable from the permutated sample ^S_nn : {(X_i , Y_j), i, j = 1 . . . n}, where the two variables are independent. The extent of discriminability is determined using the predictions for the, interchangeable, leave-out sample from training an aggregate of decision trees to discriminate between the two samples without m…
