arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2005.13458cs.ROcs.LGstat.ML
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基于智能体期货学习模型的自动驾驶汽车快速风险评估

Fast Risk Assessment for Autonomous Vehicles Using Learned Models of Agent Futures

Massachusetts Institute of Technology(麻省理工学院)

Allen Wang, Xin Huang, Ashkan Jasour, Brian Williams

摘要:

本文提出了快速非采样为基础的方法来评估风险的轨迹自动驾驶车辆时,概率预测其他代理的未来产生的深度神经网络(DNN)。所提出的方法解决了广泛的表示不确定的预测,包括高斯和非高斯混合模型的预测代理的位置和控制。我们发现,当高斯混合模型(Gestival)的代理位置的学习,风险评估的问题可以迅速解决,以任意水平的精度与现有的数值方法。为了解决代理位置的非高斯混合模型的风险评估的问题,我们提出了使用切比雪夫不等式和平方和(SOS)编程的风险上界,他们都是感兴趣的,因为前者是快得多,而后者可以是任意紧。这些方法只需要代理位置的统计矩来确定风险的上限。为了执行风险评估时,学习代理控制,而不是位置的模型,我们开发树环,一种算法类似于树搜索的多项式环,可用于精确传播的时刻控制分布到位置分布,通过非线性动力学。所提出的方法在Argoverse和CARLA数据集上训练的DNN的实际预测上得到了证明,并且证明了该方法对于快速评估低概率事件的概率是有效的。

英文摘要:

This paper presents fast non-sampling based methods to assess the risk of trajectories for autonomous vehicles when probabilistic predictions of other agents' futures are generated by deep neural networks (DNNs). The presented methods address a wide range of representations for uncertain predictions including both Gaussian and non-Gaussian mixture models for predictions of both agent positions and controls. We show that the problem of risk assessment when Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) of agent positions are learned can be solved rapidly to arbitrary levels of accuracy with existing numerical methods. To address the problem of risk assessment for non-Gaussian mixture models of agent position, we propose finding upper bounds on risk using Chebyshev's Inequality and sums-of-squares (SOS) programming; they are both of interest as the former is much faster while the latter can be arbitrarily tight. These approaches only require statistical moments of agent positions to determine upper bounds on risk. To perform risk assessment when models are learned for agent controls as opposed to positions, we develop TreeRing, an algorithm analogous to tree search over the ring of polynomials that can be used to exactly propagate moments of control distributions into position distributions through nonlinear dynamics. The presented methods are demonstrated on realistic predictions from DNNs trained on the Argoverse and CARLA datasets and are shown to be effective for rapidly assessing the probability of low probability events.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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