Understanding predictions made by deep neural networks is notoriously difficult, but also crucial to their dissemination. As all machine learning based methods, they are as good as their training data, and can also capture unwanted biases. While there are tools that can help understand whether such biases exist, they do not distinguish between correlation and causation, and might be ill-suited for text-based models and for reasoning about high level language concepts. A key problem of estimating the causal effect of a concept of interest on a given model is that this estimation requires the generation of counterfactual examples, which is challenging with existing generation technology. To bridge that gap, we propose CausaLM, a framework for producing causal model explanations using counterfactual language representation models. Our approach is based on fine-tuning of deep contextualized embedding models with auxiliary adversarial tasks derived from the causal graph of the problem. Concretely, we show that by carefully choosing auxiliary adversarial pre-training tasks, language representation models such as BERT can effectively learn a counterfactual representation for a given concept of interest, and be used to estimate its true causal effect on model performance. A byproduct of our method is a language representation model that is unaffected by the tested concept, which can be useful in mitigating unwanted bias ingrained in the data.
CausalMoE: A Billion-Scale Multimodal Foundation Model for Granger Causal Discovery with Pattern-Routed Heterogeneous Experts
State Key Laboratory of General Artificial Intelligence, School of Intelligence Science and Technology, Peking University（北京大学智能科学与技术学院通用人工智能国家重点实验室）；National Institute of Health Data Science, and Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Peking University（北京大学健康医疗大数据国家研究院、人工智能研究院）
Causal Data Augmentation for Robust Fine-Tuning of Tabular Foundation Models
Department of Computer Science University of Freiburg（计算机科学系弗赖堡大学）；University of Freiburg（弗赖堡大学）；Prior Labs ELLIS Institute Tübingen University of Freiburg（Prior实验室ELLIS研究所弗赖堡大学）
Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；Spotify（Spotify公司）；FAU Erlangen-Nuremberg（埃尔朗根-纽伦堡大学）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）
Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot be uniquely determined from observations and interventions alone. This raises the question of how to choose the causal mechanisms so that resulting counterfactual inference is trustworthy in a given domain. This question has been addressed in causal models with binary variables, but the case of categorical variables remains unanswered. We address this chall…
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)（韩国科学技术院）
The problem of fair classification can be mollified if we develop a method to remove the embedded sensitive information from the classification features. This line of separating the sensitive information is developed through the causal inference, and the causal inference enables the counterfactual generations to contrast the what-if case of the opposite sensitive attribute. Along with this separation with the causality, a frequent assumption in the deep latent causal model defines a single latent variable to absorb the entire exogenous uncertainty of the causal graph. However, we claim that su…
University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学）；Curtin University（科廷大学）
Counterfactual fairness alleviates the discrimination between the model prediction toward an individual in the actual world (observational data) and that in counterfactual world (i.e., what if the individual belongs to other sensitive groups). The existing studies need to pre-define the structural causal model that captures the correlations among variables for counterfactual inference; however, the underlying causal model is usually unknown and difficult to be validated in real-world scenarios. Moreover, the misspecification of the causal model potentially leads to poor performance in model pr…
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
Recent advances in probabilistic generative modeling have motivated learning Structural Causal Models (SCM) from observational datasets using deep conditional generative models, also known as Deep Structural Causal Models (DSCM). If successful, DSCMs can be utilized for causal estimation tasks, e.g., for answering counterfactual queries. In this work, we warn practitioners about non-identifiability of counterfactual inference from observational data, even in the absence of unobserved confounding and assuming known causal structure. We prove counterfactual identifiability of monotonic generatio…
Evaluating hypothetical statements about how the world would be had a different course of action been taken is arguably one key capability expected from modern AI systems. Counterfactual reasoning underpins discussions in fairness, the determination of blame and responsibility, credit assignment, and regret. In this paper, we study the evaluation of counterfactual statements through neural models. Specifically, we tackle two causal problems required to make such evaluations, i.e., counterfactual identification and estimation from an arbitrary combination of observational and experimental data.…
We consider the task of counterfactual estimation from observational imaging data given a known causal structure. In particular, quantifying the causal effect of interventions for high-dimensional data with neural networks remains an open challenge. Herein we propose Diff-SCM, a deep structural causal model that builds on recent advances of generative energy-based models. In our setting, inference is performed by iteratively sampling gradients of the marginal and conditional distributions entailed by the causal model. Counterfactual estimation is achieved by firstly inferring latent variables …
Microsoft Research（微软研究院）；Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad（印度理工学院海得拉巴分校）
Counterfactual examples for an input -- perturbations that change specific features but not others -- have been shown to be useful for evaluating bias of machine learning models, e.g., against specific demographic groups. However, generating counterfactual examples for images is non-trivial due to the underlying causal structure on the various features of an image. To be meaningful, generated perturbations need to satisfy constraints implied by the causal model. We present a method for generating counterfactuals by incorporating a structural causal model (SCM) in an improved variant of Adversa…
Microsoft Research（微软研究院）；University of Colorado Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）
To construct interpretable explanations that are consistent with the original ML model, counterfactual examples---showing how the model's output changes with small perturbations to the input---have been proposed. This paper extends the work in counterfactual explanations by addressing the challenge of feasibility of such examples. For explanations of ML models in critical domains such as healthcare and finance, counterfactual examples are useful for an end-user only to the extent that perturbation of feature inputs is feasible in the real world. We formulate the problem of feasibility as prese…
This manuscript contributes a general and practical framework for casting a Markov process model of a system at equilibrium as a structural causal model, and carrying out counterfactual inference. Markov processes mathematically describe the mechanisms in the system, and predict the system's equilibrium behavior upon intervention, but do not support counterfactual inference. In contrast, structural causal models support counterfactual inference, but do not identify the mechanisms. This manuscript leverages the benefits of both approaches. We define the structural causal models in terms of the …
We formulate a general framework for building structural causal models (SCMs) with deep learning components. The proposed approach employs normalising flows and variational inference to enable tractable inference of exogenous noise variables - a crucial step for counterfactual inference that is missing from existing deep causal learning methods. Our framework is validated on a synthetic dataset built on MNIST as well as on a real-world medical dataset of brain MRI scans. Our experimental results indicate that we can successfully train deep SCMs that are capable of all three levels of Pearl's l…
Variational autoencoders (VAEs) and other generative methods have garnered growing interest not just for their generative properties but also for the ability to dis-entangle a low-dimensional latent variable space. However, few existing generative models take causality into account. We propose a new decoder based framework named the Causal Counterfactual Generative Model (CCGM), which includes a partially trainable causal layer in which a part of a causal model can be learned without significantly impacting reconstruction fidelity. By learning the causal relationships between image semantic la…
CausalGaze: Unveiling Hallucinations via Counterfactual Graph Intervention in Large Language Models
College of Electronic Engineering, National University of Defense Technology（国防科技大学电子工程学院）；Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Cyberspace Security Situation Awareness and Evaluation（安徽省网络空间安全态势感知与评估重点实验室）；Institute of Computer Application, China Academy of Engineering Physics（中国工程物理研究院计算机应用研究所）
University of Virginia（弗吉尼亚大学）；Bytedance AI Lab（字节跳动人工智能实验室）；J.P. Morgan AI Research（摩根大通人工智能研究院）
Counterfactual explanations promote explainability in machine learning models by answering the question "how should an input instance be perturbed to obtain a desired predicted label?". The comparison of this instance before and after perturbation can enhance human interpretation. Most existing studies on counterfactual explanations are limited in tabular data or image data. In this work, we study the problem of counterfactual explanation generation on graphs. A few studies have explored counterfactual explanations on graphs, but many challenges of this problem are still not well-addressed: 1)…
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；The Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
In this paper, we address the challenge of performing counterfactual inference with observational data via Bayesian nonparametric regression adjustment, with a focus on high-dimensional settings featuring multiple actions and multiple correlated outcomes. We present a general class of counterfactual multi-task deep kernels models that estimate causal effects and learn policies proficiently thanks to their sample efficiency gains, while scaling well with high dimensions. In the first part of the work, we rely on Structural Causal Models (SCM) to formally introduce the setup and the problem of i…
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；CSAIL（计算机科学与人工智能实验室）
We introduce an off-policy evaluation procedure for highlighting episodes where applying a reinforcement learned (RL) policy is likely to have produced a substantially different outcome than the observed policy. In particular, we introduce a class of structural causal models (SCMs) for generating counterfactual trajectories in finite partially observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). We see this as a useful procedure for off-policy "debugging" in high-risk settings (e.g., healthcare); by decomposing the expected difference in reward between the RL and observed policy into specific episod…
Beijing Institute of Technology（北京理工大学）；University of Aberdeen（阿伯丁大学）
Causal inference is to estimate the causal effect in a causal relationship when intervention is applied. Precisely, in a causal model with binary interventions, i.e., control and treatment, the causal effect is simply the difference between the factual and counterfactual. The difficulty is that the counterfactual may never been obtained which has to be estimated and so the causal effect could only be an estimate. The key challenge for estimating the counterfactual is to identify confounders which effect both outcomes and treatments. A typical approach is to formulate causal inference as a supe…
Advancing Counterfactual Inference through Nonlinear Quantile Regression
Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；University of California San Diego（加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校）；Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence（穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学）；The University of Sydney（悉尼大学）
Technion（以色列理工学院）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Vector Institute（向量研究所）
To perform counterfactual reasoning in Structural Causal Models (SCMs), one needs to know the causal mechanisms, which provide factorizations of conditional distributions into noise sources and deterministic functions mapping realizations of noise to samples. Unfortunately, the causal mechanism is not uniquely identified by data that can be gathered by observing and interacting with the world, so there remains the question of how to choose causal mechanisms. In recent work, Oberst & Sontag (2019) propose Gumbel-max SCMs, which use Gumbel-max reparameterizations as the causal mechanism due to a…
Causal modeling has been recognized as a potential solution to many challenging problems in machine learning (ML). Here, we describe how a recently proposed counterfactual approach developed to deconfound linear structural causal models can still be used to deconfound the feature representations learned by deep neural network (DNN) models. The key insight is that by training an accurate DNN using softmax activation at the classification layer, and then adopting the representation learned by the last layer prior to the output layer as our features, we have that, by construction, the learned fea…
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；Saarland University（萨尔大学）
In this paper, we introduce VACA, a novel class of variational graph autoencoders for causal inference in the absence of hidden confounders, when only observational data and the causal graph are available. Without making any parametric assumptions, VACA mimics the necessary properties of a Structural Causal Model (SCM) to provide a flexible and practical framework for approximating interventions (do-operator) and abduction-action-prediction steps. As a result, and as shown by our empirical results, VACA accurately approximates the interventional and counterfactual distributions on diverse SCMs…
Model explanations based on pure observational data cannot compute the effects of features reliably, due to their inability to estimate how each factor alteration could affect the rest. We argue that explanations should be based on the causal model of the data and the derived intervened causal models, that represent the data distribution subject to interventions. With these models, we can compute counterfactuals, new samples that will inform us how the model reacts to feature changes on our input. We propose a novel explanation methodology based on Causal Counterfactuals and identify the limit…
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；MPI（马克斯·普朗克研究所）；ETH Zürich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
Human-translated text displays distinct features from naturally written text in the same language. This phenomena, known as translationese, has been argued to confound the machine translation (MT) evaluation. Yet, we find that existing work on translationese neglects some important factors and the conclusions are mostly correlational but not causal. In this work, we collect CausalMT, a dataset where the MT training data are also labeled with the human translation directions. We inspect two critical factors, the train-test direction match (whether the human translation directions in the trainin…
Multi-hop QA requires reasoning over multiple supporting facts to answer the question. However, the existing QA models always rely on shortcuts, e.g., providing the true answer by only one fact, rather than multi-hop reasoning, which is referred as $\textit{disconnected reasoning}$ problem. To alleviate this issue, we propose a novel counterfactual multihop QA, a causal-effect approach that enables to reduce the disconnected reasoning. It builds upon explicitly modeling of causality: 1) the direct causal effects of disconnected reasoning and 2) the causal effect of true multi-hop reasoning fro…
