We introduce an estimation method for the scaled skewness coefficient of the sample mean of short and long memory linear processes. This method can be extended to estimate higher moments such as curtosis coefficient of the sample mean. Also a general result on computing all asymptotic moments of partial sums is obtained, allowing in particular a much easier derivation of some existing central limit theorems for linear processes. The introduced skewness estimator provides a tool to empirically examine the error of the central limit theorem for long and short memory linear processes. We also show that, for both short and long memory linear processes, the skewness coefficient of the sample mean converges to zero at the same rate as in the i.i.d. case.
Skewness of maximum likelihood estimators in dispersion models
本文引入了具有回归结构的离散模型，推广了广义线性模型、指数族非线性模型（Cordeiro and Paula，1989）和适当离散模型（Jørgensen，1997 a）。本文给出了离散模型中回归参数的极大似然估计的偏度矩阵表达式。该公式适合于计算机实现，并可应用于文献中讨论的几个重要的子模型。精度和离散参数的极大似然估计的偏度表达式也被推导出来。特别是，我们的结果扩展了Cordeiro和Cordeiro（2001）和Cavalcanti等人（2009）获得的先前公式。仿真研究表明了本文结果的实际意义。
We give a thorough description of the asymptotic property of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the skewness parameter of a Skew Brownian Motion (SBM). Thanks to recent results on the Central Limit Theorem of the rate of convergence of estimators for the SBM, we prove a conjecture left open that the MLE has asymptotically a mixed normal distribution involving the local time with a rate of convergence of order $1/4$. We also give a series expansion of the MLE and study the asymptotic behavior of the score and its derivatives, as well as their variation with the skewness parameter. In par…
On the Robustness and Asymptotic Properties for Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Parameters in Exponential Power and its Scale Mixture Form Distributions
We develop Edgeworth expansion theory for spot volatility estimator under general assumptions on the log-price process that allow for drift and leverage effect. The result is based on further estimation of skewness and kurtosis, when compared with existing second order asymptotic normality result. Thus our theory can provide with a refinement result for the finite sample distribution of spot volatility. We also construct feasible confidence intervals (one-sided and two-sided) for spot volatility by using Edgeworth expansion. The Monte Carlo simulation study we conduct shows that the intervals …
Let $X_{1,n}\le\cdots\le X_{n,n}$ be the order statistics of $n$ independent random variables with a common distribution function $F$ having right heavy tail with tail index $γ$. Given known constants $d_{i,n}$, $1\le i\le n$, consider the weighted power sums $\sum^{k_n}_{i=1}d_{n+1-i,n}\log^pX_{n+1-i,n}$, where $p>0$ and the $k_n$ are positive integers such that $k_n\to\infty$ and $k_n/n\to0$ as $n\to\infty$. Under some constraints on the weights $d_{i,n}$, we prove asymptotic normality for the power sums over the whole heavy-tail model. We apply the obtained result to construct a new class o…
Modeling sparse data such as microbiome and transcriptomics (RNA-seq) data is very challenging due to the exceeded number of zeros and skewness of the distribution. Many probabilistic models have been used for modeling sparse data, including Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial models. One way to identify the most appropriate probabilistic models for zero-inflated or hurdle models is based on the p-value of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test. The main challenge for identifying the probabilistic model is that the model parameters are typically unk…
This paper establishes unified frameworks of renewable weighted sums (RWS) for various online updating estimations in the models with streaming data sets. The newly defined RWS lays the foundation of online updating likelihood, online updating loss function, online updating estimating equation and so on. The idea of RWS is intuitive and heuristic, and the algorithm is computationally simple. This paper chooses nonparametric model as an exemplary setting. The RWS applies to various types of nonparametric estimators, which include but are not limited to nonparametric likelihood, quasi-likelihood…
The ratio of two Gaussians is useful in many contexts of statistical inference. We discuss statistically valid inference of the ratio under Differential Privacy (DP). We use the delta method to derive the asymptotic distribution of the ratio estimator and use the Gaussian mechanism to provide (epsilon, delta)-DP guarantees. Like many statistics, quantities involved in the inference of a ratio can be re-written as functions of sums, and sums are easy to work with for many reasons. In the context of DP, the sensitivity of a sum is easy to calculate. We focus on getting the correct coverage proba…
In this paper we introduce a general method for estimating the quadratic covariation of one or more spot parameters processes associated with continuous time semimartingales. This estimator is applicable to a wide range of spot parameter processes, and may also be used to estimate the leverage effect of stochastic volatility models. The estimator we introduce is based on sums of squared increments of second differences of the observed process, and the intervals over which the differences are computed are rolling and overlapping. This latter feature lets us take full advantage of the data, and,…
Statistical agencies are often asked to produce small area estimates (SAEs) for positively skewed variables. When domain sample sizes are too small to support direct estimators, effects of skewness of the response variable can be large. As such, it is important to appropriately account for the distribution of the response variable given available auxiliary information. Motivated by this issue and in order to stabilize the skewness and achieve normality in the response variable, we propose an area-level log-measurement error model on the response variable. Then, under our proposed modeling fram…
Let $X$ be a random variable with unknown mean and finite variance. We present a new estimator of the mean of $X$ that is robust with respect to the possible presence of outliers in the sample, provides tight sub-Gaussian deviation guarantees without any additional assumptions on the shape or tails of the distribution, and moreover is asymptotically efficient. This is the first estimator that provably combines all these qualities in one package. Our construction is inspired by robustness properties possessed by the self-normalized sums. Theoretical findings are supplemented by numerical simula…
This article proposes a new class of Real Elliptically Skewed (RESK) distributions and associated clustering algorithms that allow for integrating robustness and skewness into a single unified cluster analysis framework. Non-symmetrically distributed and heavy-tailed data clusters have been reported in a variety of real-world applications. Robustness is essential because a few outlying observations can severely obscure the cluster structure. The RESK distributions are a generalization of the Real Elliptically Symmetric (RES) distributions. To estimate the cluster parameters and memberships, we…
In this paper we consider regression problems subject to arbitrary noise in the operator or design matrix. This characterization appropriately models many physical phenomena with uncertainty in the regressors. Although the problem has been studied extensively for ordinary/total least squares, and via models that implicitly or explicitly assume Gaussianity, less attention has been paid to improving estimation for regression problems under general uncertainty in the design matrix. To address difficulties encountered when dealing with distributions of sums of random variables, we rely on the sadd…
We obtain Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund strong laws of large numbers for weighted sums of pairwise positively quadrant dependent random variables stochastically dominated by a random variable $X \in \mathscr{L}_{p}$, $1 \leqslant p < 2$. We use our results to establish the strong consistency of estimators which emerge from regression models having pairwise positively quadrant dependent errors.
We give some useful decompositions of sum-of-powers statistics, leading to decompositions for the sample mean, sample variance, sample skewness and sample kurtosis. We solve two related problems: computing these sample moments for a pooled sample composed of subgroups with known moments; and computing these sample moments for a subgroup using known moments from other subgroups and the overall pooled sample. Each task is accomplished via decompositions of the sums-of-squares, sums-of-cubes and sums-of-quads from which the sample central moments (up to fourth order) are formed. We give decomposi…
It is well known that the conventional cumulative sum (CUSUM) test suffers from low power and large detection delay. In order to improve the power of the test, we propose two alternative statistics. The backward CUSUM detector considers the recursive residuals in reverse chronological order, whereas the stacked backward CUSUM detector sequentially cumulates a triangular array of backwardly cumulated residuals. A multivariate invariance principle for partial sums of recursive residuals is given, and the limiting distributions of the test statistics are derived under local alternatives. In the r…
Central limit theory for Peaks-over-Threshold partial sums of long memory linear time series
University of Stuttgart（斯图加特大学）；Stuttgart Center for Simulation Science (SC SimTech), University of Stuttgart（斯图加特大学斯图加特仿真科学中心 (SC SimTech)）；Univ Angers, CNRS, LAREMA, SFR MATHSTIC（昂热大学，法国国家科学研究中心，LAREMA，SFR MATHSTIC）
