年龄和性别结构的野生动物种群动态的层次贝叶斯状态空间模型
Hierarchical Bayesian state-space modeling of age- and sex-structured wildlife population dynamics
摘要：
全球生物多样性正在以惊人的速度下降，包括大型野生哺乳动物。因此，必须制定有效的人口保护和恢复战略。种群动力学模型可以深入了解导致某一物种特定种群数量下降的过程及其相对重要性。我们开发了一个综合的贝叶斯状态空间种群动态模型的野生动物种群，并说明它使用topi人口居住在肯尼亚的马赛马拉生态系统。该模型具有通用性，将地面人口调查与航测监测数据相结合。它结合了人口的年龄和性别结构和生活史特征，并将出生率，年龄特定的存活率和性别比与气象协变量，事先人口密度，环境季节性和捕食风险。该模型运行在一个月的时间步长，使生殖季节性，物候，同步和多产的出生和少年招募的准确表征。模型的性能进行了评估，使用平衡的自助抽样和比较预测与空中人口规模估计。该模型采用MCMC方法实现，并再现了马拉托皮人口的几个众所周知的功能，包括惊人的和持续的人口下降，出生和青少年招募的季节性。它可以很容易地适应其他野生动物物种，并扩展到包括几个额外的有用功能。
英文摘要：
Biodiversity is declining at alarming rates worldwide, including for large wild mammals. It is therefore imperative to develop effective population conservation and recovery strategies. Population dynamics models can provide insights into processes driving declines of particular populations of a species and their relative importance. We develop an integrated Bayesian state-space population dynamics model for wildlife populations and illustrate it using a topi population inhabiting the Masai Mara Ecosystem in Kenya. The model is general and integrates ground demographic survey with aerial survey monitoring data. It incorporates population age- and sex-structure and life-history traits and relates birth rates, age-specific survival rates and sex ratio with meteorological covariates, prior population density, environmental seasonality and predation risk. The model runs on a monthly time step, enabling accurate characterization of reproductive seasonality, phenology, synchrony and prolificacy of births and juvenile recruitment. Model performance is evaluated using balanced bootstrap sampling and comparing predictions with aerial population size estimates. The model is implemented using MCMC methods and reproduces several well-known features of the Mara topi population, including striking and persistent population decline, seasonality of births and juvenile recruitment. It can be readily adapted for other wildlife species and extended to incorporate several additional useful features.
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