评估用于模拟自我报告的性别年龄混合的分布回归策略
Evaluating distributional regression strategies for modelling self-reported sexual age-mixing
摘要：
性伴侣形成的年龄动态决定性传播疾病的传播模式，长期以来一直是研究人类免疫缺陷病毒的研究人员的重点。关于自我报告的性伴侣年龄分布的数据可从各种来源获得。我们试图探索统计模型，准确地预测性伴侣年龄分布的年龄和性别。我们确定了哪些概率分布和结果规范最好地捕捉了伴侣年龄的变化，并量化了使用分布回归对这些数据进行建模的好处。我们发现，分布回归与sinh-arcsinh分布复制观察到的合作伙伴年龄分布最准确地跨越三个地理上不同的数据集。这一框架可以用众所周知的分层建模工具加以扩展，并有助于改进对性年龄混合动态的估计。
英文摘要：
The age dynamics of sexual partnership formation determine patterns of sexually transmitted disease transmission and have long been a focus of researchers studying human immunodeficiency virus. Data on self-reported sexual partner age distributions are available from a variety of sources. We sought to explore statistical models that accurately predict the distribution of sexual partner ages over age and sex. We identified which probability distributions and outcome specifications best captured variation in partner age and quantified the benefits of modelling these data using distributional regression. We found that distributional regression with a sinh-arcsinh distribution replicated observed partner age distributions most accurately across three geographically diverse data sets. This framework can be extended with well-known hierarchical modelling tools and can help improve estimates of sexual age-mixing dynamics.
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