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arXiv 2005.07062cs.LGstat.APstat.ML
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基于仿真的全球健康决策推理

Simulation-Based Inference for Global Health Decisions

University of Oxford(牛津大学);Imperial College London(伦敦帝国学院)
Christian Schroeder de Witt, Bradley Gram-Hansen, Nantas Nardelli, Andrew Gambardella, Rob Zinkov, Puneet Dokania, N. Siddharth, Ana Belen Espinosa-Gonzalez, Ar… 展开作者

Christian Schroeder de Witt, Bradley Gram-Hansen, Nantas Nardelli, Andrew Gambardella, Rob Zinkov, Puneet Dokania, N. Siddharth, Ana Belen Espinosa-Gonzalez, Ara Darzi, Philip Torr, Atılım Güneş Baydin

摘要:

2019冠状病毒病大流行凸显了计算机流行病学建模在预测传染病动态方面的重要性,从而为卫生政策制定者和决策者提供有关适当预防和遏制策略的信息。在这种情况下的工作涉及解决具有挑战性的推理和控制问题,在不断增加的复杂性基于个人的模型。在这里,我们讨论了机器学习领域的最新突破,特别是在基于模拟的推理方面,并探索其作为模型校准新场所的潜力,以支持公共卫生干预措施的设计和评估。为了进一步刺激研究,我们正在开发软件接口,将COVID-19和疟疾流行病学模型COVID-sim(https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/)和OpenMalaria(https://github.com/SwissTPH/openmalaria)转化为概率程序,从而在这些模拟器中实现高效的可解释贝叶斯推理。

英文摘要:

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of in-silico epidemiological modelling in predicting the dynamics of infectious diseases to inform health policy and decision makers about suitable prevention and containment strategies. Work in this setting involves solving challenging inference and control problems in individual-based models of ever increasing complexity. Here we discuss recent breakthroughs in machine learning, specifically in simulation-based inference, and explore its potential as a novel venue for model calibration to support the design and evaluation of public health interventions. To further stimulate research, we are developing software interfaces that turn two cornerstone COVID-19 and malaria epidemiology models COVID-sim, (https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/) and OpenMalaria (https://github.com/SwissTPH/openmalaria) into probabilistic programs, enabling efficient interpretable Bayesian inference within those simulators.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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