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arXiv 2102.09437stat.AP
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卫生经济模拟建模与决策分析

hesim: Health Economic Simulation Modeling and Decision Analysis

Devin Incerti, Jeroen P Jansen

摘要:

卫生经济模型模拟卫生技术的成本和影响,用于卫生技术评估(HTA),以有效利用稀缺资源。历史上已经使用电子表格软件(例如,虽然R的使用越来越多,但通用建模软件仍然有限。hesim是一个R软件包,通过以集成的方式促进经济模型的参数化、模拟和分析,帮助填补了这一空白。支持的模型类型包括队列离散时间状态转换模型(cDTSTM),个体连续时间状态转换模型(iCTSTM)和分区生存模型(PSM),包括马尔可夫(时间齐次和时间非齐次)和半马尔可夫过程。基于R6和S3类的模块化设计允许用户以灵活的方式组合疾病进展、成本和效用的单独子模型。概率敏感性分析(PSA)用于将模型参数中的不确定性传播到模型输出。模拟代码是用C++编写的,因此复杂的模拟(例如PSA和单个模拟的组合)可以比以前更快地运行。使用PSA的模拟成本和质量调整生命年(QALY)进行成本效益框架内的决策分析。

英文摘要:

Health economic models simulate the costs and effects of health technologies for use in health technology assessment (HTA) to inform efficient use of scarce resources. Models have historically been developed using spreadsheet software (e.g., Microsoft Excel) and while use of R is growing, general purpose modeling software is still limited. hesim is an R package that helps fill this gap by facilitating parameterization, simulation, and analysis of economic models in an integrated manner. Supported model types include cohort discrete time state transition models (cDTSTMs), individual continuous time state transition models (iCTSTMs), and partitioned survival models (PSMs), encompassing Markov (time-homogeneous and time-inhomogeneous) and semi-Markov processes. A modular design based on R6 and S3 classes allows users to combine separate submodels for disease progression, costs, and utility in a flexible way. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) is used to propagate uncertainty in model parameters to model outputs. Simulation code is written in C++ so complex simulations such as those combining PSA and individual simulation can be run much more quickly than previously possible. Decision analysis within a cost-effectiveness framework is performed using simulated costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) from a PSA.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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