We obtain explicit $p$-Wasserstein distance error bounds between the distribution of the multi-parameter MLE and the multivariate normal distribution. Our general bounds are given for possibly high-dimensional, independent and identically distributed random vectors. Our general bounds are of the optimal $\mathcal{O}(n^{-1/2})$ order. Explicit numerical constants are given when $p\in(1,2]$, and in the case $p>2$ the bounds are explicit up to a constant factor that only depends on $p$. We apply our general bounds to derive Wasserstein distance error bounds for the multivariate normal approximation of the MLE in several settings; these being single-parameter exponential families, the normal distribution under canonical parametrisation, and the multivariate normal distribution under non-canonical parametrisation. In addition, we provide upper bounds with respect to the bounded Wasserstein distance when the MLE is implicitly defined.
In this paper we obtain an adjusted version of the likelihood ratio test for errors-in-variables multivariate linear regression models. The error terms are allowed to follow a multivariate distribution in the class of the elliptical distributions, which has the multivariate normal distribution as a special case. We derive a modified likelihood ratio statistic that follows a chi-squared distribution with a high degree of accuracy. Our results generalize those in Melo and Ferrari(Advances in Statistical Analysis, 2010, 94, 75-87) by allowing the parameter of interest to be vector-valued in the m…
Max-stable distributions and processes are important models for extreme events and the assessment of tail risks. The full, multivariate likelihood of a parametric max-stable distribution is complicated and only recent advances enable its use. The asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in multivariate extremes are mostly unknown. In this paper we provide natural conditions on the exponent function and the angular measure of the max-stable distribution that ensure asymptotic normality of the estimator. We show the effectiveness of this result by applying it to popular parametr…
In this paper, we develop modified versions of the likelihood ratio test for multivariate heteroskedastic errors-in-variables regression models. The error terms are allowed to follow a multivariate distribution in the elliptical class of distributions, which has the normal distribution as a special case. We derive the Skovgaard adjusted likelihood ratio statistics, which follow a chi-squared distribution with a high degree of accuracy. We conduct a simulation study and show that the proposed tests display superior finite sample behavior as compared to the standard likelihood ratio test. We ill…
The asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) under regularity conditions is a cornerstone of statistical theory. In this paper, we give explicit upper bounds on the distributional distance between the distribution of the MLE of a vector parameter, and the multivariate normal distribution. We work with possibly high-dimensional, independent but not necessarily identically distributed random vectors. In addition, we obtain explicit upper bounds even in cases where the MLE cannot be expressed analytically.
We present new results for consistency of maximum likelihood estimators with a focus on multivariate mixed models. Our theory builds on the idea of using subsets of the full data to establish consistency of estimators based on the full data. It requires neither that the data consist of independent observations, nor that the observations can be modeled as a stationary stochastic process. Compared to existing asymptotic theory using the idea of subsets we substantially weaken the assumptions, bringing them closer to what suffices in classical settings. We apply our theory in two multivariate mix…
Reduced-rank regression is a dimensionality reduction method with many applications. The asymptotic theory for reduced rank estimators of parameter matrices in multivariate linear models has been studied extensively. In contrast, few theoretical results are available for reduced-rank multivariate generalised linear models. We develop M-estimation theory for concave criterion functions that are maximised over parameters spaces that are neither convex nor closed. These results are used to derive the consistency and asymptotic distribution of maximum likelihood estimators in reduced-rank multivar…
We use the delta method and Stein's method to derive, under regularity conditions, explicit upper bounds for the distributional distance between the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of a $d$-dimensional parameter and its asymptotic multivariate normal distribution. Our bounds apply in situations in which the MLE can be written as a function of a sum of i.i.d. $t$-dimensional random vectors. We apply our general bound to establish a bound for the multivariate normal approximation of the MLE of the normal distribution with unknown mean and variance.
The problem of characterizing a multivariate distribution of a random vector using examination of univariate combinations of vector components is an essential issue of multivariate analysis. The likelihood principle plays a prominent role in developing powerful statistical inference tools. In this context, we raise the question: can the univariate likelihood function based on a random vector be used to provide the uniqueness in reconstructing the vector distribution? In multivariate normal (MN) frameworks, this question links to a reverse of Cochran's theorem that concerns the distribution of …
We develop a general framework for statistical inference with the 1-Wasserstein distance. Recently, the Wasserstein distance has attracted considerable attention and has been widely applied to various machine learning tasks because of its excellent properties. However, hypothesis tests and a confidence analysis for the Wasserstein distance have not been established in a general multivariate setting. This is because the limit distribution of the empirical distribution with the Wasserstein distance is unavailable without strong restriction. To address this problem, in this study, we develop a no…
Multivariate normal mixtures provide a flexible model for high-dimensional data. They are widely used in statistical genetics, statistical finance, and other disciplines. Due to the unboundedness of the likelihood function, classical likelihood-based methods, which may have nice practical properties, are inconsistent. In this paper, we recommend a penalized likelihood method for estimating the mixing distribution. We show that the maximum penalized likelihood estimator is strongly consistent when the number of components has a known upper bound. We also explore a convenient EM-algorithm for co…
Goodness-of-fit tests based on the empirical Wasserstein distance are proposed for simple and composite null hypotheses involving general multivariate distributions. For group families, the procedure is to be implemented after preliminary reduction of the data via invariance.This property allows for calculation of exact critical values and p-values at finite sample sizes. Applications include testing for location--scale families and testing for families arising from affine transformations, such as elliptical distributions with given standard radial density and unspecified location vector and s…
There has been a growing interest in providing models for multivariate spatial processes. A majority of these models specify a parametric matrix covariance function. Based on observations, the parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood or variants thereof. While the asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators for univariate spatial processes have been analyzed in detail, maximum likelihood estimators for multivariate spatial processes have not received their deserved attention yet. In this article we consider the classical increasing-domain asymptotic setting restricting the min…
We propose new model selection criteria based on generalized ridge estimators dominating the maximum likelihood estimator under the squared risk and the Kullback-Leibler risk in multivariate linear regression. Our model selection criteria have the following favorite properties: consistency, unbiasedness, uniformly minimum variance. Consistency is proven under an asymptotic structure $\frac{p}{n}\to c$ where $n$ is the sample size and $p$ is the parameter dimension of the response variables. In particular, our proposed class of estimators dominates the maximum likelihood estimator under the squ…
Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (QMLE) are given for a general class of multidimensional causal processes. For particular cases already studied in the literature (for instance univariate or multivariate GARCH, ARCH, ARMA-GARCH processes) the assumptions required for establishing these results are often weaker than existing conditions. The QMLE asymptotic behavior is also given for numerous new examples of univariate or multivariate processes (for instance TARCH or NLARCH processes).
University of Toulouse（图卢兹大学）；Institut Universitaire de France（法国大学研究院）；Univ. Lille（里尔大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Centrale Lille（里尔中央理工学院）
Despite their advantages, normalizing flows generally suffer from several shortcomings including their tendency to generate unrealistic data (e.g., images) and their failing to detect out-of-distribution data. One reason for these deficiencies lies in the training strategy which traditionally exploits a maximum likelihood principle only. This paper proposes a new training paradigm based on a hybrid objective function combining the maximum likelihood principle (MLE) and a sliced-Wasserstein distance. Results obtained on synthetic toy examples and real image data sets show better generative abil…
The multivariate errors-in-variables regression model is applicable when both dependent and independent variables in a multivariate regression are subject to measurement errors. In such a scenario it is long established that the traditional least squares approach to estimating the model parameters is biased and inconsistent. The generalized least squares, ordinary least squares and maximum likelihood estimators (under the assumption of Gaussian errors) were derived in the seminal paper of Gleser (1981). However, the ordinary least squares and maximum likelihood estimators for the mean vectors …
The problem of reducing the bias of maximum likelihood estimator in a general multivariate elliptical regression model is considered. The model is very flexible and allows the mean vector and the dispersion matrix to have parameters in common. Many frequently used models are special cases of this general formulation, namely: errors-in-variables models, nonlinear mixed-effects models, heteroscedastic nonlinear models, among others. In any of these models, the vector of the errors may have any multivariate elliptical distribution. We obtain the second-order bias of the maximum likelihood estimat…
This paper investigates improved testing inferences under a general multivariate elliptical regression model. The model is very flexible in terms of the specification of the mean vector and the dispersion matrix, and of the choice of the error distribution. The error terms are allowed to follow a multivariate distribution in the class of the elliptical distributions, which has the multivariate normal and Student-t distributions as special cases. We obtain Skovgaard's adjusted likelihood ratio statistics and Barndorff-Nielsen's adjusted signed likelihood ratio statistics and we conduct a simula…
We consider the change-point detection in multivariate continuous and integer valued time series. We propose a Wald-type statistic based on the estimator performed by a general contrast function; which can be constructed from the likelihood, a quasi-likelihood, a least squares method, etc. Sufficient conditions are provided to ensure that the statistic convergences to a well-known distribution under the null hypothesis (of no change) and diverges to infinity under the alternative; which establishes the consistency of the procedure. Some examples are detailed to illustrate the scope of applicat…
Simulation of Multivariate Extremes: a Wasserstein-Aitchison GAN approach
Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences, LIDAM, UCLouvain（统计、生物统计与精算科学研究所，LIDAM，UCLouvain）；CREST, ENSAE Paris（ENSAE巴黎CREST）；Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg（数学科学系，查尔姆斯理工大学和哥德堡大学）；Department of Mathematics, KU Leuven（数学系，KU莱顿）
The asymptotic normality of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) is a long established result. Explicit bounds for the distributional distance between the distribution of the MLE and the normal distribution have recently been obtained for the case of independent random variables. In this paper, a local dependence structure is introduced between the random variables and we give upper bounds which are specified for the Wasserstein metric.
We consider quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation for general non-Gaussian discrete-ime linear state space models and equidistantly observed multivariate Lévy-driven continuoustime autoregressive moving average (MCARMA) processes. In the discrete-time setting, we prove strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the QML estimator under standard moment assumptions and a strong-mixing condition on the output process of the state space model. In the second part of the paper, we investigate probabilistic and analytical properties of equidistantly sampled continuous-time state space models a…
Covariance alignment: from maximum likelihood estimation to Gromov-Wasserstein
Center for Data Science, New York University（纽约大学数据科学中心）；Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院数据、系统与社会研究所）；Department of Mathematics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院数学系）
In this paper, we introduce a new multivariate discrete distribution which called multivariate unification of generalized Apostol type distribution (UGAT). Several prop- erties are studied as, moments, probability generating function and other properties. Also, reliability study of distribution are introduced. Maximum likelihood method is used to estimate parameters and numerical method is used to obtain (MLEs).
We revisit the classical problem of deriving convergence rates for the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in finite mixture models. The Wasserstein distance has become a standard loss function for the analysis of parameter estimation in these models, due in part to its ability to circumvent label switching and to accurately characterize the behaviour of fitted mixture components with vanishing weights. However, the Wasserstein distance is only able to capture the worst-case convergence rate among the remaining fitted mixture components. We demonstrate that when the log-likelihood function is p…
We study the problem of multiple hypothesis testing for multidimensional data when inter-correlations are present. The problem of multiple comparisons is common in many applications. When the data is multivariate and correlated, existing multiple comparisons procedures based on maximum likelihood estimation could be prohibitively computationally intensive. We propose to construct multiple comparisons procedures based on composite likelihood statistics. We focus on data arising in three ubiquitous cases: multivariate Gaussian, probit, and quadratic exponential models. To help practitioners asse…
We consider the problem of recovering a distribution function on the real line from observations additively contaminated with errors following the standard Laplace distribution. Assuming that the latent distribution is completely unknown leads to a nonparametric deconvolution problem. We begin by studying the rates of convergence relative to the $L^2$-norm and the Hellinger metric for the direct problem of estimating the sampling density, which is a mixture of Laplace densities with a possibly unbounded set of locations: the rate of convergence for the Bayes' density estimator corresponding to…
Statistical estimation and inference for marginal hazard models with varying coefficients for multivariate failure time data are important subjects in survival analysis. A local pseudo-partial likelihood procedure is proposed for estimating the unknown coefficient functions. A weighted average estimator is also proposed in an attempt to improve the efficiency of the estimator. The consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are established and standard error formulas for the estimated coefficients are derived and empirically tested. To reduce the computational burden of the…
In order to adapt the Wasserstein distance to the large sample multivariate non-parametric two-sample problem, making its application computationally feasible, permutation tests based on the Sinkhorn divergence between probability vectors associated to data dependent partitions are considered. Different ways of implementing these tests are evaluated and the asymptotic distribution of the underlying statistic is established in some cases. The statistics proposed are compared, in simulated examples, with the test of Schilling's, one of the best non-parametric tests available in the literature.
We establish global rates of convergence of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) of a multivariate distribution function in the case of (one type of) "interval censored" data. The main finding is that the rate of convergence of the MLE in the Hellinger metric is no worse than $n^{-1/3} (\log n)^γ$ for $γ= (5d - 4)/6$.
This paper studies the estimation of high-dimensional, discrete, possibly sparse, mixture models in topic models. The data consists of observed multinomial counts of $p$ words across $n$ independent documents. In topic models, the $p\times n$ expected word frequency matrix is assumed to be factorized as a $p\times K$ word-topic matrix $A$ and a $K\times n$ topic-document matrix $T$. Since columns of both matrices represent conditional probabilities belonging to probability simplices, columns of $A$ are viewed as $p$-dimensional mixture components that are common to all documents while columns …
Nonparametric tests for equality of multivariate distributions are frequently desired in research. It is commonly required that test-procedures based on relatively small samples of vectors accurately control the corresponding Type I Error (TIE) rates. Often, in the multivariate testing, extensions of null-distribution-free univariate methods, e.g., Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramer-von Mises type schemes, are not exact, since their null distributions depend on underlying data distributions. The present paper extends the density-based empirical likelihood technique in order to nonparametrically app…
This paper provides a closed form expression for the pairwise score vector for the multivariate ordered probit model. This result has several implications in likelihood-based inference. It is indeed used both to speed-up gradient based optimization routines for point estimation, and to provide a building block to compute standard errors and confidence intervals by means of the Godambe matrix.
We propose a new testing procedure about the tail weight parameter of multivariate Student $t$ distributions by having recourse to the Le Cam methodology. Our test is asymptotically as efficient as the classical likelihood ratio test, but outperforms the latter by its flexibility and simplicity: indeed, our approach allows to estimate the location and scatter nuisance parameters by any root-$n$ consistent estimators, hereby avoiding numerically complex maximum likelihood estimation. The finite-sample properties of our test are analyzed in a Monte Carlo simulation study, and we apply our method…
We study the robust quickest change detection under unknown pre- and post-change distributions. To deal with uncertainties in the data-generating distributions, we formulate two data-driven ambiguity sets based on the Wasserstein distance, without any parametric assumptions. The minimax robust test is constructed as the CUSUM test under least favorable distributions, a representative pair of distributions in the ambiguity sets. We show that the minimax robust test can be obtained in a tractable way and is asymptotically optimal. We investigate the effectiveness of the proposed robust test over…
A novel approach to obtain weighted likelihood estimates of multivariate location and scatter is discussed. A weighting scheme is proposed that is based on the distribution of the Mahalanobis distances rather than the distribution of the data at the assumed model. This strategy allows to avoid the curse of dimensionality affecting non-parametric density estimation, that is involved in the construction of the weights through the Pearson residuals Markatou et al (1998). Then, weighted likelihood based outlier detection rules and robust dimensionality reduction techniques are developed. The effec…
We study a non-parametric approach to multivariate density estimation. The estimators are piecewise constant density functions supported by binary partitions. The partition of the sample space is learned by maximizing the likelihood of the corresponding histogram on that partition. We analyze the convergence rate of the sieve maximum likelihood estimator, and reach a conclusion that for a relatively rich class of density functions the rate does not directly depend on the dimension. This suggests that, under certain conditions, this method is immune to the curse of dimensionality, in the sense …
We propose an adjusted likelihood ratio test of two-factor separability (Kronecker product structure) for unbalanced multivariate repeated measures data. Here we address the particular case where the within subject correlation is believed to decrease exponentially in both dimensions (e.g., temporal and spatial dimensions). However, the test can be easily generalized to factor specific matrices of any structure. A simulation study is conducted to assess the inference accuracy of the proposed test. Longitudinal medical imaging data concerning schizophrenia and caudate morphology illustrates the …
Full likelihood-based inference for high-dimensional multivariate extreme value distributions, or max-stable processes, is feasible when incorporating occurrence times of the maxima; without this information, $d$-dimensional likelihood inference is usually precluded due to the large number of terms in the likelihood. However, some studies have noted bias when performing high-dimensional inference that incorporates such event information, particularly when dependence is weak. We elucidate this phenomenon, showing that for unbiased inference in moderate dimensions, dimension $d$ should be of a m…
The Ohio State University（俄亥俄州立大学）；University of Southern California（南加州大学）；University of Illinois at Chicago（伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校）
We study the problem of learning multivariate log-concave densities with respect to a global loss function. We obtain the first upper bound on the sample complexity of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for a log-concave density on $\mathbb{R}^d$, for all $d \geq 4$. Prior to this work, no finite sample upper bound was known for this estimator in more than $3$ dimensions. In more detail, we prove that for any $d \geq 1$ and $ε>0$, given $\tilde{O}_d((1/ε)^{(d+3)/2})$ samples drawn from an unknown log-concave density $f_0$ on $\mathbb{R}^d$, the MLE outputs a hypothesis $h$ that with high p…
Gaussian mixture models form a flexible and expressive parametric family of distributions that has found applications in a wide variety of applications. Unfortunately, fitting these models to data is a notoriously hard problem from a computational perspective. Currently, only moment-based methods enjoy theoretical guarantees while likelihood-based methods are dominated by heuristics such as Expectation-Maximization that are known to fail in simple examples. In this work, we propose a new algorithm to compute the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) in a Gaussian mixture model. Ou…
A class of multivariate spectral representations for real-valued nonstationary random variables is introduced, which is characterised by a general complex Gaussian distribution. In this way, the temporal signal properties -- harmonicity, wide-sense stationarity and cyclostationarity -- are designated respectively by the mean, Hermitian variance and pseudo-variance of the associated time-frequency representation (TFR). For rigour, the estimators of the TFR distribution parameters are derived within a maximum likelihood framework and are shown to be statistically consistent, owing to the statist…
Simple exponential smoothing is widely used in forecasting economic time series. This is because it is quick to compute and it generally delivers accurate forecasts. On the other hand, its multivariate version has received little attention due to the complications arising with the estimation. Indeed, standard multivariate maximum likelihood methods are affected by numerical convergence issues and bad complexity, growing with the dimensionality of the model. In this paper, we introduce a new estimation strategy for multivariate exponential smoothing, based on aggregating its observations into s…
This paper studies fundamental aspects of modelling data using multivariate Watson distributions. Although these distributions are natural for modelling axially symmetric data (i.e., unit vectors where $\pm \x$ are equivalent), for high-dimensions using them can be difficult. Why so? Largely because for Watson distributions even basic tasks such as maximum-likelihood are numerically challenging. To tackle the numerical difficulties some approximations have been derived---but these are either grossly inaccurate in high-dimensions (\emph{Directional Statistics}, Mardia & Jupp. 2000) or when reas…
We consider covariance estimation in the multivariate generalized Gaussian distribution (MGGD) and elliptically symmetric (ES) distribution. The maximum likelihood optimization associated with this problem is non-convex, yet it has been proved that its global solution can be often computed via simple fixed point iterations. Our first contribution is a new analysis of this likelihood based on geodesic convexity that requires weaker assumptions. Our second contribution is a generalized framework for structured covariance estimation under sparsity constraints. We show that the optimizations can b…
Statistical modeling of multivariate and spatial extreme events has attracted broad attention in various areas of science. Max-stable distributions and processes are the natural class of models for this purpose, and many parametric families have been developed and successfully applied. Due to complicated likelihoods, the efficient statistical inference is still an active area of research, and usually composite likelihood methods based on bivariate densities only are used. Thibaud et al. (2016, Ann. Appl. Stat., to appear) use a Bayesian approach to fit a Brown--Resnick process to extreme tempe…
We revisit multivariate extreme value theory modeling by emphasizing multivariate regular variations and the multivariate Breiman Lemma. This allows us to recover in a simple framework the most popular multivariate extreme value distributions, such as the logistic, negative logistic, Dirichlet, extremal-$t$ and Hüsler-Reiss models. In a second part of the paper, we focus on the Hüsler-Reiss Pareto model and its surprising exponential family property. After a thorough study of this exponential family structure, we focus on maximum likelihood estimation. We also consider the generalized Hüsler-R…
