Time series datasets often contain heterogeneous signals, composed of both continuously changing quantities and discretely occurring events. The coupling between these measurements may provide insights into key underlying mechanisms of the systems under study. To better extract this information, we investigate the asymptotic statistical properties of coupling measures between continuous signals and point processes. We first introduce martingale stochastic integration theory as a mathematical model for a family of statistical quantities that include the Phase Locking Value, a classical coupling measure to characterize complex dynamics. Based on the martingale Central Limit Theorem, we can then derive the asymptotic Gaussian distribution of estimates of such coupling measure, that can be exploited for statistical testing. Second, based on multivariate extensions of this result and Random Matrix Theory, we establish a principled way to analyze the low rank coupling between a large number of point processes and continuous signals. For a null hypothesis of no coupling, we establish sufficient conditions for the empirical distribution of squared singular values of the matrix to converge, as the number of measured signals increases, to the well-known Marchenko-Pastur (MP) law, and the largest squared singular value converges to the upper end of the MPs support. This justifies a simple thresholding approach to assess the significance of multivariate coupling. Finally, we illustrate with simulations the relevance of our univariate and multivariate results in the context of neural time series, addressing how to reliably quantify the interplay between multi channel Local Field Potential signals and the spiking activity of a large population of neurons.
Confidence intervals are central to statistical inference as a tool to evaluate the type I error risk at a given significance level. We devise a method to construct confidence intervals using a single run of a permutation test. This methodology is extended to a multivariate setting, where we are able to handle multiple testing under arbitrary dependence. We demonstrate the method on a weather data set and in a simulation example.
The problem of characterizing a multivariate distribution of a random vector using examination of univariate combinations of vector components is an essential issue of multivariate analysis. The likelihood principle plays a prominent role in developing powerful statistical inference tools. In this context, we raise the question: can the univariate likelihood function based on a random vector be used to provide the uniqueness in reconstructing the vector distribution? In multivariate normal (MN) frameworks, this question links to a reverse of Cochran's theorem that concerns the distribution of …
Dhirubhai Ambani Institute of Technology (DAIICT)（迪鲁巴伊·安巴尼信息技术学院）
The article derives a novel Gram-Charlier A (GCA) Series based Extended Rule-of-Thumb (ExROT) for bandwidth selection in Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). There are existing various bandwidth selection rules achieving minimization of the Asymptotic Mean Integrated Square Error (AMISE) between the estimated probability density function (PDF) and the actual PDF. The rules differ in a way to estimate the integration of the squared second order derivative of an unknown PDF $(f(\cdot))$, identified as the roughness $R(f''(\cdot))$. The simplest Rule-of-Thumb (ROT) estimates $R(f''(\cdot))$ with an a…
The extensive emergence of big data techniques has led to an increasing interest in the development of change-point detection algorithms that can perform well in a multivariate, possibly high-dimensional setting. In the current paper, we propose a new method for the consistent estimation of the number and location of multiple generalized change-points in multivariate, possibly high-dimensional, noisy data sequences. The number of change-points is allowed to increase with the sample size and the dimensionality of the given data sequence. Having a number of univariate signals, which constitute t…
Extending to dimension 2 and higher the dual univariate concepts of ranks and quantiles has remained an open problem for more than half a century. Based on measure transportation results, a solution has been proposed recently under the name center-outward ranks and quantiles which, contrary to previous proposals, enjoys all the properties that make univariate ranks a successful tool for statistical inference. Just as their univariate counterparts (to which they reduce in dimension one), center-outward ranks allow for the construction of distribution-free and asymptotically efficient tests for …
This paper proposes a maximum-likelihood approach to jointly estimate marginal conditional quantiles of multivariate response variables in a linear regression framework. We consider a slight reparameterization of the Multivariate Asymmetric Laplace distribution proposed by Kotz et al (2001) and exploit its location-scale mixture representation to implement a new EM algorithm for estimating model parameters. The idea is to extend the link between the Asymmetric Laplace distribution and the well-known univariate quantile regression model to a multivariate context, i.e. when a multivariate depend…
Correlated random fields are a common way to model dependence struc- tures in high-dimensional data, especially for data collected in imaging. One important parameter characterizing the degree of dependence is the asymp- totic variance which adds up all autocovariances in the temporal and spatial domain. Especially, it arises in the standardization of test statistics based on partial sums of random fields and thus the construction of tests requires its estimation. In this paper we propose consistent estimators for this parameter for strictly stationary ϕ-mixing random fields with arbitrary dim…
Asymptotic normality of intermediate order statistics taken from univariate iid random variables is well-known. We generalize this result to random vectors in arbitrary dimension, where the order statistics are taken componentwise.
The univariate piecing-together approach (PT) fits a univariate generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to the upper tail of a given distribution function in a continuous manner. We propose a multivariate extension. First it is shown that an arbitrary copula is in the domain of attraction of a multivariate extreme value distribution if and only if its upper tail can be approximated by the upper tail of a multivariate GPD with uniform margins. The multivariate PT then consists of two steps: The upper tail of a given copula $C$ is cut off and substituted by a multivariate GPD copula in a continuou…
Nonparametric tests for equality of multivariate distributions are frequently desired in research. It is commonly required that test-procedures based on relatively small samples of vectors accurately control the corresponding Type I Error (TIE) rates. Often, in the multivariate testing, extensions of null-distribution-free univariate methods, e.g., Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramer-von Mises type schemes, are not exact, since their null distributions depend on underlying data distributions. The present paper extends the density-based empirical likelihood technique in order to nonparametrically app…
Strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (QMLE) are given for a general class of multidimensional causal processes. For particular cases already studied in the literature (for instance univariate or multivariate GARCH, ARCH, ARMA-GARCH processes) the assumptions required for establishing these results are often weaker than existing conditions. The QMLE asymptotic behavior is also given for numerous new examples of univariate or multivariate processes (for instance TARCH or NLARCH processes).
Goodness-of-fit tests are often used in data analysis to test the agreement of a distribution to a set of data. These tests can be used to detect an unknown signal against a known background or to set limits on a proposed signal distribution in experiments contaminated by poorly understood backgrounds. Out-of-the-box non-parametric tests that can target any proposed distribution are only available in the univariate case. In this paper, we discuss how to build goodness-of-fit tests for arbitrary multivariate distributions or multivariate data generation models.
In this paper, the maximum spacing method is considered for multivariate observations. Nearest neighbour balls are used as a multidimensional analogue to univariate spacings. A class of information-type measures is used to generalize the concept of maximum spacing estimators. Asymptotic normality of these generalized maximum spacing estimators is proved when the assigned model class is correct, that is the true density is a member of the model class.
The classical approach to multivariate extreme value modelling assumes that the joint distribution belongs to a multivariate domain of attraction. This requires each marginal distribution be individually attracted to a univariate extreme value distribution. An apparently more flexible extremal model for multivariate data was proposed by Heffernan and Tawn under which not all the components are required to belong to an extremal domain of attraction but assumes instead the existence of an asymptotic approximation to the conditional distribution of the random vector given one of the components is…
The bootstrap procedure has emerged as a general framework to construct prediction intervals for future observations in autoregressive time series models. Such models with outlying data points are standard in real data applications, especially in the field of econometrics. These outlying data points tend to produce high forecast errors, which reduce the forecasting performances of the existing bootstrap prediction intervals calculated based on non-robust estimators. In the univariate and multivariate autoregressive time series, we propose a robust bootstrap algorithm for constructing predictio…
General Effect Modelling (GEM) -- Part 2. Multivariate GEM applied to gene expression data of type 2 diabetes detects information that is lost by univariate validation
For testing two random vectors for independence, we consider testing whether the distance of one vector from a center point is independent from the distance of the other vector from a center point by a univariate test. In this paper we provide conditions under which it is enough to have a consistent univariate test of independence on the distances to guarantee that the power to detect dependence between the random vectors increases to one, as the sample size increases. These conditions turn out to be minimal. If the univariate test is distribution-free, the multivariate test will also be distr…
In this paper we introduce a new class of multivariate unimodal distributions, motivated by Khintchine's representation. We start by proposing a univariate model, whose support covers all the unimodal distributions on the real line. The proposed class of unimodal distributions can be naturally extended to higher dimensions, by using the multivariate Gaussian copula. Under both univariate and multivariate settings, we provide MCMC algorithms to perform inference about the model parameters and predictive densities. The methodology is illustrated with univariate and bivariate examples, and with v…
This paper proposes a novel multivariate time series model named Copula-linked univariate D-vines (CuDvine), which enables the simultaneous copula-based modeling of both temporal and cross-sectional dependence for multivariate time series. To construct CuDvine, we first build a semiparametric univariate D-vine time series model (uDvine) based on a D-vine. The uDvine generalizes the existing first-order copula-based Markov chain models to Markov chains of an arbitrary-order. Building upon uDvine, we construct CuDvine by linking multiple uDvines via a parametric copula. As a simple and tractable…
Davis and Mikosch [7] introduced the extremogram as a flexible quantitative tool for measuring various types of extremal dependence in a stationary time series. There we showed some standard statistical properties of the sample extremogram. A major difficulty was the construction of credible confidence bands for the extremogram. In this paper, we employ the stationary bootstrap to overcome this problem. Moreover, we introduce the cross extremogram as a measure of extremal serial dependence between two or more time series. We also study the extremogram for return times between extremal events. …
Over the years, the most popularly used control chart for statistical process control has been Shewhart's $\bar{X}-S$ or $\bar{X}-R$ chart along with its multivariate generalizations. But, such control charts suffer from the lack of robustness. In this paper, we propose a modified and improved version of Shewhart chart, based on trimmed mean and winsorized variance that proves robust and more efficient. We have generalized this approach of ours with suitable modifications using depth functions for Multivariate control charts and EWMA charts as well. We have discussed the theoretical properties…
The stochastic volatility model is a popular tool for modeling the volatility of assets. The model is a nonlinear and non-Gaussian state space model, and consequently is difficult to fit. Many approaches, both classical and Bayesian, have been developed that rely on numerically intensive techniques such as quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Convergence and mixing problems still plague MCMC algorithms when drawing samples sequentially from the posterior distributions. While particle Gibbs methods have been successful when applied to nonlinear or non-Gaussia…
In this paper we detail the reformulation and rewrite of core functions in the spBayes R package. These efforts have focused on improving computational efficiency, flexibility, and usability for point-referenced data models. Attention is given to algorithm and computing developments that result in improved sampler convergence rate and efficiency by reducing parameter space; decreased sampler run-time by avoiding expensive matrix computations, and; increased scalability to large datasets by implementing a class of predictive process models that attempt to overcome computational hurdles by repre…
The univariate Birnbaum-Saunders distribution has been used quite effectively to model times to failure for materials subject to fatigue and for modeling lifetime data. In this article, we define a skewed version of the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution in the multivariate setting and derive several of its properties. The proposed skewed multivariate model is an absolutely continuous distribution whose marginals are univariate Birnbaum-Saunders distributions. Estimation of the parameters by maximum likelihood is discussed and the Fisher's information matrix is determined. A skewed bivariate versi…
In statistical models for the analysis of time-to-event data, individual heterogeneity is usually accounted for by means of one or more random effects, also known as frailties. In the vast majority of the literature, the random effect is assumed to follow a continuous probability distribution. However, in some areas of application, a discrete frailty distribution may be more appropriate. We investigate and compare various existing families of discrete univariate and shared frailty models by taking as our focus the variance of the relative frailty distribution in survivors. The relative frailty…
All multivariate extensions of the univariate theory of risk measurement run into the same fundamental problem of the absence, in dimension d > 1, of a canonical ordering of Rd. Based on measure transportation ideas, several attempts have been made recently in the statistical literature to overcome that conceptual difficulty. In Hallin (2017), the concepts of center-outward distribution and quantile functions are developed as generalisations of the classical univariate concepts of distribution and quantile functions, along with their empirical versions. We propose a class of smooth approximati…
Hydroclimatic processes are characterized by heterogeneous spatiotemporal correlation structures and marginal distributions that can be continuous, mixed-type, discrete or even binary. Simulating exactly such processes can greatly improve hydrological analysis and design. Yet this challenging task is accomplished often by ad hoc and approximate methodologies that are devised for specific variables and purposes. In this study, a single framework is proposed allowing the exact simulation of processes with any marginal and any correlation structure. We unify, extent, and improve of a general-purp…
RE-EM tree is a tree-based method that combines the regression tree and the linear mixed effects model for modeling univariate response longitudinal or clustered data. In this paper, we generalize the RE-EM tree method to multivariate response data, by adopting the Multivariate Regression Tree method proposed by De'Ath [2002]. The Multivariate RE-EM tree method estimates a population-level single tree structure that is driven by the multiple responses simultaneously and object-level random effects for each response variable, where correlation between the response variables and between the asso…
Multivariate stochastic volatility models with skew distributions are proposed. Exploiting Cholesky stochastic volatility modeling, univariate stochastic volatility processes with leverage effect and generalized hyperbolic skew t-distributions are embedded to multivariate analysis with time-varying correlations. Bayesian prior works allow this approach to provide parsimonious skew structure and to easily scale up for high-dimensional problem. Analyses of daily stock returns are illustrated. Empirical results show that the time-varying correlations and the sparse skew structure contribute to im…
Existing approaches for multivariate functional principal component analysis are restricted to data on the same one-dimensional interval. The presented approach focuses on multivariate functional data on different domains that may differ in dimension, e.g. functions and images. The theoretical basis for multivariate functional principal component analysis is given in terms of a Karhunen-Loève Theorem. For the practically relevant case of a finite Karhunen-Loève representation, a relationship between univariate and multivariate functional principal component analysis is established. This offers…
Small study effects occur when smaller studies show different, often larger, treatment effects than large ones, which may threaten the validity of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The most well-known reasons for small study effects include publication bias, outcome reporting bias and clinical heterogeneity. Methods to account for small study effects in univariate meta-analysis have been extensively studied. However, detecting small study effects in a multivariate meta-analysis setting remains an untouched research area. One of the complications is that different types of selection process…
Efficiently Computed Marginal Likelihoods for Multivariate Mixture Models
Laboratoire de Mathématiques Blaise Pascal, CNRS, Université Clermont Auvergne（布莱斯·帕斯卡数学实验室，法国国家科学研究中心，克莱蒙奥弗涅大学）；CNRS, MAP5, Université Paris Cité（法国国家科学研究中心，MAP5，巴黎西岱大学）；Departments of Statistics and Sociology, University of Washington（华盛顿大学统计与社会学系）
Univariate or multivariate ordinal responses are often assumed to arise from a latent continuous parametric distribution, with covariate effects which enter linearly. We introduce a Bayesian nonparametric modeling approach for univariate and multivariate ordinal regression, which is based on mixture modeling for the joint distribution of latent responses and covariates. The modeling framework enables highly flexible inference for ordinal regression relationships, avoiding assumptions of linearity or additivity in the covariate effects. In standard parametric ordinal regression models, computat…
There are many different ways in which change point analysis can be performed, from purely parametric methods to those that are distribution free. The ecp package is designed to perform multiple change point analysis while making as few assumptions as possible. While many other change point methods are applicable only for univariate data, this R package is suitable for both univariate and multivariate observations. Estimation can be based upon either a hierarchical divisive or agglomerative algorithm. Divisive estimation sequentially identifies change points via a bisection algorithm. The aggl…
In this article, we consider a non-parametric Bayesian approach to multivariate quantile regression. The collection of related conditional distributions of a response vector Y given a univariate covariate X is modeled using a Dependent Dirichlet Process (DDP) prior. The DDP is used to introduce dependence across x. As the realizations from a Dirichlet process prior are almost surely discrete, we need to convolve it with a kernel. To model the error distribution as flexibly as possible, we use a countable mixture of multidimensional normal distributions as our kernel. For posterior computations…
The assumption of normality has underlain much of the development of statistics, including spatial statistics, and many tests have been proposed. In this work, we focus on the multivariate setting and first review the recent advances in multivariate normality tests for i.i.d. data, with emphasis on the skewness and kurtosis approaches. We show through simulation studies that some of these tests cannot be used directly for testing normality of spatial data. We further review briefly the few existing univariate tests under dependence (time or space), and then propose a new multivariate normality…
The Poisson distribution has been widely studied and used for modeling univariate count-valued data. Multivariate generalizations of the Poisson distribution that permit dependencies, however, have been far less popular. Yet, real-world high-dimensional count-valued data found in word counts, genomics, and crime statistics, for example, exhibit rich dependencies, and motivate the need for multivariate distributions that can appropriately model this data. We review multivariate distributions derived from the univariate Poisson, categorizing these models into three main classes: 1) where the mar…
Univariate and multivariate general linear regression models, subject to linear inequality constraints, arise in many scientific applications. The linear inequality restrictions on model parameters are often available from phenomenological knowledge and motivated by machine learning applications of high-consequence engineering systems (Agrell, 2019; Veiga and Marrel, 2012). Some studies on the multiple linear models consider known linear combinations of the regression coefficient parameters restricted between upper and lower bounds. In the present paper, we consider both univariate and multiva…
The Misspecification-Resistant Information Criterion (MRIC) proposed in [H.-L. Hsu, C.-K. Ing, H. Tong: On model selection from a finite family of possibly misspecified time series models. The Annals of Statistics. 47 (2), 1061--1087 (2019)] is a model selection criterion for univariate parametric time series that enjoys both the property of consistency and asymptotic efficiency. In this article we extend the MRIC to the case where the response is a multivariate time series and the predictor is univariate. The extension requires novel derivations based upon random matrix theory. We obtain an a…
In this paper we take up Bayesian inference in general multivariate stable distributions. We exploit the representation of Matsui and Takemura (2009) for univariate projections, and the representation of the distributions in terms of their spectral measure. We present efficient MCMC schemes to perform the computations when the spectral measure is approximated discretely or, as we propose, by a normal distribution. Appropriate latent variables are introduced to implement MCMC. In relation to the discrete approximation, we propose efficient computational schemes based on the characteristic funct…
Multivariate extreme-value analysis is concerned with the extremes in a multivariate random sample, that is, points of which at least some components have exceptionally large values. Mathematical theory suggests the use of max-stable models for univariate and multivariate extremes. A comprehensive account is given of the various ways in which max-stable models are described. Furthermore, a construction device is proposed for generating parametric families of max-stable distributions. Although the device is not new, its role as a model generator seems not yet to have been fully exploited.
