We propose a principal components regression method based on maximizing a joint pseudo-likelihood for responses and predictors. Our method uses both responses and predictors to select linear combinations of the predictors relevant for the regression, thereby addressing an oft-cited deficiency of conventional principal components regression. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent in a wide range of settings, including ones with non-normal and dependent observations; conditions on the first and second moments suffice if the number of predictors ($p$) is fixed and the number of observations ($n$) tends to infinity and dependence is weak, while stronger distributional assumptions are needed when $p \to \infty$ with $n$. We obtain the estimator's asymptotic distribution as the projection of a multivariate normal random vector onto a tangent cone of the parameter set at the true parameter, and find the estimator is asymptotically more efficient than competing ones. In simulations our method is substantially more accurate than conventional principal components regression and compares favorably to partial least squares and predictor envelopes. The method's practical usefulness is illustrated in a data example with cross-sectional prediction of stock returns.
Principal component regression (PCR) is a widely used two-stage procedure: principal component analysis (PCA), followed by regression in which the selected principal components are regarded as new explanatory variables in the model. Note that PCA is based only on the explanatory variables, so the principal components are not selected using the information on the response variable. In this paper, we propose a one-stage procedure for PCR in the framework of generalized linear models. The basic loss function is based on a combination of the regression loss and PCA loss. An estimate of the regress…
Regularization is an essential element of virtually all kernel methods for nonparametric regression problems. A critical factor in the effectiveness of a given kernel method is the type of regularization that is employed. This article compares and contrasts members from a general class of regularization techniques, which notably includes ridge regression and principal component regression. We derive an explicit finite-sample risk bound for regularization-based estimators that simultaneously accounts for (i) the structure of the ambient function space, (ii) the regularity of the true regression…
In this study, we propose a function-on-function linear quantile regression model that allows for more than one functional predictor to establish a more flexible and robust approach. The proposed model is first transformed into a finite-dimensional space via the functional principal component analysis paradigm in the estimation phase. It is then approximated using the estimated functional principal component functions, and the estimated parameter of the quantile regression model is constructed based on the principal component scores. In addition, we propose a Bayesian information criterion to …
Targeted maximum likelihood estimation is a general methodology combining flexible ensemble learning and semiparametric efficiency theory in a two-step procedure for estimation of causal parameters. Proposed targeted maximum likelihood procedures for survival and competing risks analysis have so far focused on events taken values in discrete time. We here present a targeted maximum likelihood estimation procedure for event times that take values in R+. We focuson the estimation of intervention-specific mean outcomes with stochastic interventions on a time-fixed treatment. For data-adaptive est…
Targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) is a general method for estimating parameters in semiparametric and nonparametric models. Each iteration of TMLE involves fitting a parametric submodel that targets the parameter of interest. We investigate the use of exponential families to define the parametric submodel. This implementation of TMLE gives a general approach for estimating any smooth parameter in the nonparametric model. A computational advantage of this approach is that each iteration of TMLE involves estimation of a parameter in an exponential family, which is a convex optimizati…
In the functional linear regression model, many methods have been proposed and studied to estimate the slope function while the functional predictor was observed in the entire domain. However, works on functional linear regression models with partially observed trajectories have received less attention. In this paper, to fill the literature gap we consider the scenario where individual functional predictor may be observed only on part of the domain. Depending on whether measurement error is presented in functional predictors, two methods are developed, one is based on linear functionals of the…
We analyse the properties of the Principal Fitted Components (PFC) algorithm proposed by Cook. We derive theoretical properties of the resulting estimators, including sufficient conditions under which they are $\sqrt{n}$-consistent, and explain some of the simulation results given in Cook's paper. We use techniques from random matrix theory and perturbation theory. We argue that, under Cook's model at least, the PFC algorithm should outperform the Principal Components algorithm.
In this paper we propose a principal component Liu-type logistic estimator by combining the principal component logistic regression estimator and Liu-type logistic estimator to overcome the multicollinearity problem. The superiority of the new estimator over some related estimators are studied under the asymptotic mean squared error matrix. A Monte Carlo simulation experiment is designed to compare the performances of the estimators using mean squared error criterion. Finally, a conclusion section is presented.
We provide a remedy for two concerns that have dogged the use of principal components in regression: (i) principal components are computed from the predictors alone and do not make apparent use of the response, and (ii) principal components are not invariant or equivariant under full rank linear transformation of the predictors. The development begins with principal fitted components [Cook, R. D. (2007). Fisher lecture: Dimension reduction in regression (with discussion). Statist. Sci. 22 1--26] and uses normal models for the inverse regression of the predictors on the response to gain reducti…
This paper presents a selective survey of recent developments in statistical inference and multiple testing for high-dimensional regression models, including linear and logistic regression. We examine the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for various low-dimensional objectives such as regression coefficients and linear and quadratic functionals. The key technique is to generate debiased and desparsified estimators for the targeted low-dimensional objectives and estimate their uncertainty. In addition to covering the motivations for and intuitions behind these statistica…
In functional linear regression, the parameters estimation involves solving a non necessarily well-posed problem and it has points of contact with a range of methodologies, including statistical smoothing, deconvolution and projection on finite-dimensional subspaces. We discuss the standard approach based explicitly on functional principal components analysis, nevertheless the choice of the number of basis components remains something subjective and not always properly discussed and justified. In this work we discuss inferential properties of least square estimation in this context with differ…
The paper is concerned with asymptotic properties of the principal components analysis of functional data. The currently available results assume the existence of the fourth moment. We develop analogous results in a setting which does not require this assumption. Instead, we assume that the observed functions are regularly varying. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the sample covariance operator and of the sample functional principal components. We obtain a number of results on the convergence of moments and almost sure convergence. We apply the new theory to establish the consistency o…
The non-parametric estimation of average causal effects in observational studies often relies on controlling for confounding covariates through smoothing regression methods such as kernel, splines or local polynomial regression. Such regression methods are tuned via smoothing parameters which regulates the amount of degrees of freedom used in the fit. In this paper we propose data-driven methods for selecting smoothing parameters when the targeted parameter is an average causal effect. For this purpose, we propose to estimate the exact expression of the mean squared error of the estimators. As…
Envelope methods offer targeted dimension reduction for various models. The overarching goal is to improve efficiency in multivariate parameter estimation by projecting the data onto a lower-dimensional subspace known as the envelope. Envelope approaches have advantages in analyzing data with highly correlated variables, but their iterative Grassmannian optimization algorithms do not scale very well with ultra high-dimensional data. While the connections between envelopes and partial least squares in multivariate linear regression have promoted recent progress in high-dimensional studies of en…
We want to analyse EEG recordings in order to investigate the phonemic categorization at a very early stage of auditory processing. This problem can be modelled by a supervised classification of functional data. Discrimination is explored via a logistic functional linear model, using a wavelet representation of the data. Different procedures are investigated, based on penalized likelihood and principal component reduction or partial least squares reduction.
Principal component regression (PCR) is a two-stage procedure that selects some principal components and then constructs a regression model regarding them as new explanatory variables. Note that the principal components are obtained from only explanatory variables and not considered with the response variable. To address this problem, we propose the sparse principal component regression (SPCR) that is a one-stage procedure for PCR. SPCR enables us to adaptively obtain sparse principal component loadings that are related to the response variable and select the number of principal components sim…
Functional data analysis is a fast evolving branch of modern statistics and the functional linear model has become popular in recent years. However, most estimation methods for this model rely on generalized least squares procedures and therefore are sensitive to atypical observations. To remedy this, we propose a two-step estimation procedure that combines robust functional principal components and robust linear regression. Moreover, we propose a transformation that reduces the curvature of the estimators and can be advantageous in many settings. For these estimators we prove Fisher-consisten…
High-dimensional compositional data are commonplace in the modern omics sciences amongst others. Analysis of compositional data requires a proper choice of orthonormal coordinate representation as their relative nature is not compatible with the direct use of standard statistical methods. Principal balances, a specific class of log-ratio coordinates, are well suited to this context since they are constructed in such a way that the first few coordinates capture most of the variability in the original data. Focusing on regression and classification problems in high dimensions, we propose a novel…
Principal component regression uses principal components as regressors. It is particularly useful in prediction settings with high-dimensional covariates. The existing literature treating of Bayesian approaches is relatively sparse. We introduce a Bayesian approach that is robust to outliers in both the dependent variable and the covariates. Outliers can be thought of as observations that are not in line with the general trend. The proposed approach automatically penalises these observations so that their impact on the posterior gradually vanishes as they move further and further away from the…
This paper proposes a new method and algorithm for predicting multivariate responses in a regression setting. Research into classification of High Dimension Low Sample Size (HDLSS) data, in particular microarray data, has made considerable advances, but regression prediction for high-dimensional data with continuous responses has had less attention. Recently Bair et al (2006) proposed an efficient prediction method based on supervised principal component regression (PCR). Motivated by the fact that a larger number of principal components results in better regression performance, this paper ext…
Université de Toulouse（图卢兹大学）；INRA（法国国家农业研究院）；Institut de Mathématiques de Toulouse（图卢兹数学研究所）；Univ. Lyon（里昂大学）；ENS de Lyon（里昂高等师范学院）
We report on an empirical study of the main strategies for quantile regression in the context of stochastic computer experiments. To ensure adequate diversity, six metamodels are presented, divided into three categories based on order statistics, functional approaches, and those of Bayesian inspiration. The metamodels are tested on several problems characterized by the size of the training set, the input dimension, the signal-to-noise ratio and the value of the probability density function at the targeted quantile. The metamodels studied reveal good contrasts in our set of experiments, enablin…
Methods for global measurement of transcript abundance such as microarrays and RNA-Seq generate datasets in which the number of measured features far exceeds the number of observations. Extracting biologically meaningful and experimentally tractable insights from such data therefore requires high-dimensional prediction. Existing sparse linear approaches to this challenge have been stunningly successful, but some important issues remain. These methods can fail to select the correct features, predict poorly relative to non-sparse alternatives, or ignore any unknown grouping structures for the fe…
We study regression models for the situation where both dependent and independent variables are square-integrable stochastic processes. Questions concerning the definition and existence of the corresponding functional linear regression models and some basic properties are explored for this situation. We derive a representation of the regression parameter function in terms of the canonical components of the processes involved. This representation establishes a connection between functional regression and functional canonical analysis and suggests alternative approaches for the implementation of…
Comparative Evaluation of Explainable Machine Learning Versus Linear Regression for Predicting County-Level Lung Cancer Mortality Rate in the United States
University of Tennessee Graduate School（田纳西大学研究生院）
Unlike the commonly used parametric regression models such as mixed models, that can easily violate the required statistical assumptions and result in invalid statistical inference, target maximum likelihood estimation allows more realistic data-generative models and provides double-robust, semi-parametric and efficient estimators. Target maximum likelihood estimators (TMLEs) for the causal effect of a community-level static exposure were previously proposed by Balzer et al. In this manuscript, we build on this work and present identifiability results and develop two semi-parametric efficient …
Principal component regression (PCR) is a two-stage procedure: the first stage performs principal component analysis (PCA) and the second stage constructs a regression model whose explanatory variables are replaced by principal components obtained by the first stage. Since PCA is performed by using only explanatory variables, the principal components have no information about the response variable. To address the problem, we propose a one-stage procedure for PCR in terms of singular value decomposition approach. Our approach is based upon two loss functions, a regression loss and a PCA loss, w…
This manuscript presents an approach to perform generalized linear regression with multiple high dimensional covariance matrices as the outcome. Model parameters are proposed to be estimated by maximizing a pseudo-likelihood. When the data are high dimensional, the normal likelihood function is ill-posed as the sample covariance matrix is rank-deficient. Thus, a well-conditioned linear shrinkage estimator of the covariance matrix is introduced. With multiple covariance matrices, the shrinkage coefficients are proposed to be common across matrices. Theoretical studies demonstrate that the propo…
When generating social policies and pricing annuity at national and subnational levels, it is essential both to forecast mortality accurately and ensure that forecasts at the subnational level add up to the forecasts at the national level. This has motivated recent developments in forecasting functional time series in a group structure, where static principal component analysis is used. In the presence of moderate to strong temporal dependence, static principal component analysis designed for independent and identically distributed functional data may be inadequate. Thus, through using the dyn…
We propose a new method for supervised learning, especially suited to wide data where the number of features is much greater than the number of observations. The method combines the lasso ($\ell_1$) sparsity penalty with a quadratic penalty that shrinks the coefficient vector toward the leading principal components of the feature matrix. We call the proposed method the "principal components lasso" ("pcLasso"). The method can be especially powerful if the features are pre-assigned to groups (such as cell-pathways, assays or protein interaction networks). In that case, pcLasso shrinks each group…
In scientific applications, multivariate observations often come in tandem with temporal or spatial covariates, with which the underlying signals vary smoothly. The standard approaches such as principal component analysis and factor analysis neglect the smoothness of the data, while multivariate linear or nonparametric regression fail to leverage the correlation information among multivariate response variables. We propose a novel approach named nonparametric principal subspace regression to overcome these issues. By decoupling the model discrepancy, a simple and general two-step framework is …
Beginning with a discussion of R. A. Fisher's early written remarks that relate to dimension reduction, this article revisits principal components as a reductive method in regression, develops several model-based extensions and ends with descriptions of general approaches to model-based and model-free dimension reduction in regression. It is argued that the role for principal components and related methodology may be broader than previously seen and that the common practice of conditioning on observed values of the predictors may unnecessarily limit the choice of regression methodology.
This article introduces BART with Targeted Smoothing, or tsBART, a new Bayesian tree-based model for nonparametric regression. The goal of tsBART is to introduce smoothness over a single target covariate t, while not necessarily requiring smoothness over other covariates x. TsBART is based on the Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) model, an ensemble of regression trees. TsBART extends BART by parameterizing each tree's terminal nodes with smooth functions of t, rather than independent scalars. Like BART, tsBART captures complex nonlinear relationships and interactions among the predicto…
Functional linear regression is a widely used approach to model functional responses with respect to functional inputs. However, classical functional linear regression models can be severely affected by outliers. We therefore introduce a Fisher-consistent robust functional linear regression model that is able to effectively fit data in the presence of outliers. The model is built using robust functional principal component and least squares regression estimators. The performance of the functional linear regression model depends on the number of principal components used. We therefore introduce…
Remote sensing observations are extensively used for analysis of environmental variables. These variables often exhibit spatial correlation, which has to be accounted for in the calibration models used in predictions, either by direct modelling of the dependencies or by allowing for spatially correlated stochastic effects. Another feature in many remote sensing instruments is that the derived predictor variables are highly correlated, which can lead to unnecessary model over-training and at worst, singularities in the estimates. Both of these affect the prediction accuracy, especially when the…
The topic of this tutorial is Least Squares Sparse Principal Components Analysis (LS SPCA) which is a simple method for computing approximated Principal Components which are combinations of only a few of the observed variables. Analogously to Principal Components, these components are uncorrelated and sequentially best approximate the dataset. The derivation of LS SPCA is intuitive for anyone familiar with linear regression. Since LS SPCA is based on a different optimality from other SPCA methods and does not suffer from their serious drawbacks. I will demonstrate on two datasets how useful an…
In this paper we review existing methods for robust functional principal component analysis (FPCA) and propose a new method for FPCA that can be applied to longitudinal data where only a few observations per trajectory are available. This method is robust against the presence of atypical observations, and can also be used to derive a new non-robust FPCA approach for sparsely observed functional data. We use local regression to estimate the values of the covariance function, taking advantage of the fact that for elliptically distributed random vectors the conditional location parameter of some …
