arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2004.11780econ.GNphysics.ao-phq-fin.ECstat.AP
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环境经济学与不确定性:回顾与机器学习展望

Environmental Economics and Uncertainty: Review and a Machine Learning Outlook

Ruda Zhang, Patrick Wingo, Rodrigo Duran, Kelly Rose, Jennifer Bauer, Roger Ghanem

摘要:

环境科学中的经济评估关注环境影响、适应性和脆弱性的测量或评估。综合评估模型是环境经济学的一个统一框架,它试图将物理、生态和社会经济系统的关键要素结合起来。综合评估中的不确定性特征因组成模型而异:与机械物理模型相关的不确定性往往通过模拟或蒙特卡罗抽样的集合进行评估,而与影响模型相关的不确定性则通过推测或计量经济学分析进行评估。流形采样是一种机器学习技术,它构造所有相关变量的联合概率模型,这些变量可以集中在低维几何结构上。与传统的密度估计方法相比,流形抽样方法具有更高的效率,特别是当数据由少数潜变量产生时。流形约束联合概率模型有助于回答从预测到响应和预防的决策问题。采用管汇取样法对墨西哥湾海上钻井进行风险评估。

英文摘要:

Economic assessment in environmental science concerns the measurement or valuation of environmental impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Integrated assessment modeling is a unifying framework of environmental economics, which attempts to combine key elements of physical, ecological, and socioeconomic systems. Uncertainty characterization in integrated assessment varies by component models: uncertainties associated with mechanistic physical models are often assessed with an ensemble of simulations or Monte Carlo sampling, while uncertainties associated with impact models are evaluated by conjecture or econometric analysis. Manifold sampling is a machine learning technique that constructs a joint probability model of all relevant variables which may be concentrated on a low-dimensional geometric structure. Compared with traditional density estimation methods, manifold sampling is more efficient especially when the data is generated by a few latent variables. The manifold-constrained joint probability model helps answer policy-making questions from prediction, to response, and prevention. Manifold sampling is applied to assess risk of offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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