欧洲能源系统的早期脱碳得到了回报
Early decarbonisation of the European energy system pays off
摘要：
对于给定的碳预算，几十年来，能源系统的不同转化率会产生截然不同的结果。在这里，我们考虑了2020年至2050年期间欧洲电力，供暖和交通部门的累积二氧化碳排放量为33 GtCO2的预算，这代表了欧洲对巴黎协定的贡献。我们发现，早期稳步减排比后期快速减排更具成本效益，前者在头十年大幅减排，后者在初期减排目标较低，很快就会耗尽碳预算，随后需要大幅减排。我们表明，太阳能光伏，陆上和海上风电可以成为完全脱碳能源系统的基石，并且需要类似于历史最大值的安装率才能实现及时脱碳。这些结果的关键是现有的平衡战略，通过一个开放的，每小时解决的，网络化的部门耦合的欧洲能源系统模型的适当表示。
英文摘要：
For a given carbon budget over several decades, different transformation rates for the energy system yield starkly different results. Here we consider a budget of 33 GtCO2 for the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from the European electricity, heating, and transport sectors between 2020 and 2050, which represents Europe's contribution to the Paris Agreement. We have found that following an early and steady path in which emissions are strongly reduced in the first decade is more cost-effective than following a late and rapid path in which low initial reduction targets quickly deplete the carbon budget and require a sharp reduction later. We show that solar photovoltaic, onshore and offshore wind can become the cornerstone of a fully decarbonised energy system and that installation rates similar to historical maxima are required to achieve timely decarbonisation. Key to those results is a proper representation of existing balancing strategies through an open, hourly-resolved, networked model of the sector-coupled European energy system.
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