转移负担：道路运输脱碳延迟如何影响其他部门的减排
Shifting burdens: How delayed decarbonisation of road transport affects other sectoral emission reductions
AI总结：
本文研究欧盟道路运输脱碳速度对其他部门减排的影响，发现延迟脱碳会显著推高系统成本和碳价，而加速转型最具成本效益，且更早的强制规定可避免搁浅资产并每年节省高达430亿欧元。
摘要：
2022年，欧盟（EU）道路运输中的燃料燃烧约占二氧化碳排放量的21%（7.6亿吨）。道路运输是唯一排放量持续上升的部门，与1990年相比增加了24%。欧盟最初计划到2030年禁止新的二氧化碳排放汽车，但后来将这一目标推迟到2035年，凸显了快速脱碳推进过程中持续存在的挑战。该部门的脱碳速度将减轻或加剧其他部门为保持在欧盟碳预算之内所承受的压力。本文探讨了加快或减缓道路运输转型的影响。我们揭示，较慢的脱碳路径不仅会使系统成本每年增加1260亿欧元（6%），还要求2030年二氧化碳价格从137欧元/吨二氧化碳提高一倍以上至290欧元/吨二氧化碳，以触发其他部门的脱碳。另一方面，加速向清洁交通转型被证明是最具成本效益的策略，为供暖和工业部门更渐进的变化留出空间，同时减少后期对碳移除的依赖。与当前政策相比，比欧盟目前设想更早的强制规定可以避免搁浅资产，并每年节省高达430亿欧元。
英文摘要：
In 2022, fuel combustion in road transport accounted for approximately 21% (760 million tonnes) of CO2 emissions in the European Union (EU). Road transport is the only sector with rising emissions, with an increase of 24% compared to 1990. The EU initially aimed to ban new CO2-emitting cars by 2030 but has since delayed this target to 2035, underscoring the ongoing challenges in the push for rapid decarbonisation. The pace of decarbonisation in this sector will either ease or intensify the pressure on other sectors to stay within the EU's carbon budget. This paper explores the effects of speeding up or slowing down the transition in road transport. We reveal that a slower decarbonisation path not only drives up system costs by 126 billion Euro/a (6%) but also demands more than a doubling of the CO2 price from 137 to 290 Euro/tCO2 in 2030 to trigger decarbonisation in other sectors. On the flip side, accelerating the shift to cleaner transport proves to be the most cost-effective strategy, giving room for more gradual changes in the heating and industrial sectors, while reducing the reliance on carbon removal in later years. Earlier mandates than currently envisaged by the EU can avoid stranded assets and save up to 43 billion Euro/a compared to current policies.
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