欧洲实现不同气候目标所需的技术转型速度
Speed of technological transformations required in Europe to achieve different climate goals
摘要：
欧洲对全球变暖的贡献将取决于在实现气候中性之前的累积排放量。在本文中，我们研究了碳预算对应的温度升高1.5和2C之间的替代过渡路径。我们使用PyPSA-Eur-Sec，这是一个具有高空间和时间分辨率的部门耦合欧洲能源系统的开放模型。所有这些路径都需要类似的技术转型，但在模型中，水电解、碳捕获和氢网络等重要技术的规模扩大的时机不同。在我们的研究结果中，太阳能光伏，陆上和海上风电成为净零能源系统的基石，通过直接电气化（例如热泵和电动汽车）或间接电气化（例如使用合成燃料）实现其他部门的脱碳。在所应用的成本和性能假设下，对于120 EUR/tCO 2的社会碳成本（SCC），1.5和1.6C预算下的过渡路径分别比2C预算贵8%和1%，因为早期建造资产的成本更高。这些途径也将在2035年之前看到新技术的快速增长。在这些假设下，在我们的模型中，如果考虑SCC至少为300 EUR/tCO 2，则1. 5C预算是成本最优的。此外，我们讨论了强有力的影响SCC和贴现率假设比较替代路径时。我们还分析了不同的假设对CO2封存的成本和潜力的影响。
英文摘要：
Europe's contribution to global warming will be determined by the cumulative emissions until climate neutrality is achieved. In this paper, we investigate alternative transition paths under carbon budgets corresponding to temperature increases between 1.5 and 2C. We use PyPSA-Eur-Sec, an open model of the sector-coupled European energy system with high spatial and temporal resolution. All the paths entail similar technological transformations, but the timing of the scale-up of important technologies like water electrolysis, carbon capture and hydrogen networks differs in the model. In our results, solar PV, onshore and offshore wind become the cornerstone of a net-zero energy system enabling the decarbonisation of other sectors via direct electrification (e.g. heat pumps and electric vehicles) or indirect electrification (e.g. using synthetic fuels). Under the cost and performance assumptions applied, for a social cost of carbon (SCC) of 120EUR/tCO2, transition paths under 1.5 and 1.6C budgets are, respectively, 8%, and 1% more expensive than the 2C-budget because building assets earlier costs more. These pathways also see a faster ramp-up of new technologies before 2035. Under these assumptions, the 1.5C-budget is cost-optimal in our model, if SCC of at least 300 EUR/tCO2 is considered. Moreover, we discuss the strong implications of the SCC and discount rate assumed when comparing alternative paths. We also analyse the consequences of different assumptions on the cost and potential of CO2 sequestration.
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