A large number of commonly used parametric Archimedean copula (AC) families are restricted to a single parameter, connected to a concordance measure such as Kendall's tau. This often leads to poor statistical fits, particularly in the joint tails, and can sometimes even limit the ability to model concordance or tail dependence mathematically. This work suggests outer power (OP) transformations of Archimedean generators to overcome these limitations. The copulas generated by OP-transformed generators can, for example, allow one to capture both a given concordance measure and a tail dependence coefficient simultaneously. For exchangeable OP-transformed ACs, a formula for computing tail dependence coefficients is obtained, as well as two feasible OP AC estimators are proposed and their properties studied by simulation. For hierarchical extensions of OP-transformed ACs, a new construction principle, efficient sampling and parameter estimation are addressed. By simulation, convergence rate and standard errors of the proposed estimator are studied. Excellent tail fitting capabilities of OP-transformed hierarchical AC models are demonstrated in a risk management application. The results show that the OP transformation is able to improve the statistical fit of exchangeable ACs, particularly of those that cannot capture upper tail dependence or strong concordance, as well as the statistical fit of hierarchical ACs, especially in terms of tail dependence and higher dimensions. Given how comparably simple it is to include OP transformations into existing exchangeable and hierarchical AC models, this transformation provides an attractive trade-off between computational effort and statistical improvement.
Research on structure determination and parameter estimation of hierarchical Archimedean copulas (HACs) has so far mostly focused on the case in which all appearing Archimedean copulas belong to the same Archimedean family. The present work addresses this issue and proposes a new approach for estimating HACs that involve different Archimedean families. It is based on employing goodness-of-fit test statistics directly into HAC estimation. The approach is summarized in a simple algorithm, its theoretical justification is given and its applicability is illustrated by several experiments, which in…
The decreasing enumeration of the points of a Poisson random measure whose mean measure has finite survival function on the positive half-axis can be represented as a non-increasing function of the jump times of a standard Poisson process. This observation allows to generalize the essential idea from a well-known exact simulation algorithm for arbitrary extreme-value copulas to copulas of a more general family of max-infinitely divisible distributions, with reciprocal Archimedean copulas being a particular example.
We propose a flexible copula model to describe changes with a covariate in the dependence structure of (conditionally exchangeable) random variables. The starting point is a spline approximation to the generator of an Archimedean copula. Changes in the dependence structure with a covariate $x$ are modelled by flexible regression of the spline coefficients on $x$. The performances and properties of the spline estimate of the reference generator and the abilities of these conditional models to approximate conditional copulas are studied through simulations. Inference is made using Bayesian argum…
One of the features inherent in nested Archimedean copulas, also called hierarchical Archimedean copulas, is their rooted tree structure. A nonparametric, rank-based method to estimate this structure is presented. The idea is to represent the target structure as a set of trivariate structures, each of which can be estimated individually with ease. Indeed, for any three variables there are only four possible rooted tree structures and, based on a sample, a choice can be made by performing comparisons between the three bivariate margins of the empirical distribution of the three variables. The s…
Trimmed L-moments, were introduced by Elamir and Seheult(2003) to proposed a new estimation method for multi-parameter distributions when the mean doesn't exist or for heavy tailed distribution where the L-moments method which proposed by Hosking (1990) is not valid because the absence of theoretical L-moments. In this paper a new estimation method based on trimmed L-moments of multi-parameter copulas is proposed with a simulation study. The consistency and the asymptotic normality of the new estimator also established.
Any nested Archimedean copula is defined starting from a rooted phylogenetic tree, for which a new class of nonparametric estimators is presented. An estimator from this new class relies on a two-step procedure where first a binary tree is built and second is collapsed if necessary to give an estimate of the target tree structure. Several examples of estimators from this class are given and the performance of each of these estimators, as well as of the only known comparable estimator, is assessed by means of a simulation study involving target structures in various dimensions, showing that the…
For the analysis of clustered survival data, two different types of models that take the association into account, are commonly used: frailty models and copula models. Frailty models assume that conditional on a frailty term for each cluster, the hazard functions of individuals within that cluster are independent. These unknown frailty terms with their imposed distribution are used to express the association between the different individuals in a cluster. Copula models on the other hand assume that the joint survival function of the individuals within a cluster is given by a copula function, e…
In multiple testing, the family-wise error rate can be bounded under some conditions by the copula of the test statistics. Assuming that this copula is Archimedean, we consider two non-parametric Archimedean generator estimators. More specifically, we use the non-parametric estimator from Genest et al. (2011) and a slight modification thereof. In simulations, we compare the resulting multiple tests with the Bonferroni test and the multiple test derived from the true generator as baselines.
The copulas of random vectors with standard uniform univariate margins truncated from the right are considered and a general formula for such right-truncated conditional copulas is derived. This formula is analytical for copulas that can be inverted analytically as functions of each single argument. This is the case, for example, for Archimedean and related copulas. The resulting right-truncated Archimedean copulas are not only analytically tractable but can also be characterized as tilted Archimedean copulas. This finding allows one, for example, to more easily derive analytical properties su…
The concept of intermediate tail dependence is useful if one wants to quantify the degree of positive dependence in the tails when there is no strong evidence of presence of the usual tail dependence. We first review existing studies on intermediate tail dependence, and then we report new results to supplement the review. Intermediate tail dependence for elliptical, extreme value and Archimedean copulas are reviewed and further studied, respectively. For Archimedean copulas, we not only consider the frailty model but also the recently studied scale mixture model; for the latter, conditions lea…
Using the classical estimation method of moments, we propose a new semiparametric estimation procedure for multi-parameter copula models. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the obtained estimators are established. By considering an Archimedean copula model, an extensive simulation study, comparing these estimators with the pseudo maximum likelihood, rho-inversion and tau-inversion ones, is carried out. We show that, with regards to the other methods, the moment based estimation is quick and simple to use with reasonable bias and root mean squared error.
While there is substantial need for dependence models in higher dimensions, most existing models quickly become rather restrictive and barely balance parsimony and flexibility. Hierarchical constructions may improve on that by grouping variables in different levels. In this paper, the new class of hierarchical Kendall copulas is proposed and discussed. Hierarchical Kendall copulas are built up by flexible copulas specified for groups of variables, where aggregation is facilitated by the Kendall distribution function, the multivariate analog to the probability integral transform for univariate …
Copula-based modeling has seen rapid advances in recent years. However, in big data applications, the lengthy computation time for estimating copula parameters is a major difficulty. Here, we develop a novel method to speed computation time in estimating copula parameters, using communication-free parallel computing. Our procedure partitions full data sets into disjoint independent subsets, performs copula parameter estimation on the subsets, and combines the results to produce an approximation to the full data copula parameter. We show in simulation studies that the computation time is greatl…
The goal of this paper is to develop a measure for characterizing complex dependence between stationary time series that cannot be captured by traditional measures such as correlation and coherence. Our approach is to use copula models of functionals of the Fourier coefficients which is a generalization of coherence. Here, we use standard parametric copula models with a single parameter both from elliptical and Archimedean families. Our approach is to analyze changes in local field potentials in the rat cortex prior to and immediately following the onset of stroke. We present the necessary the…
Copula models have become one of the most widely used tools in the applied modelling of multivariate data. Similarly, Bayesian methods are increasingly used to obtain efficient likelihood-based inference. However, to date, there has been only limited use of Bayesian approaches in the formulation and estimation of copula models. This article aims to address this shortcoming in two ways. First, to introduce copula models and aspects of copula theory that are especially relevant for a Bayesian analysis. Second, to outline Bayesian approaches to formulating and estimating copula models, and their …
In many time-to-event studies, the event of interest is recurrent. Here, the data for each sample unit corresponds to a series of gap times between the subsequent events. Given a limited follow-up period, the last gap time might be right-censored. In contrast to classical analysis, gap times and censoring times cannot be assumed independent, i.e. the sequential nature of the data induces dependent censoring. Also, the recurrences typically vary between sample units leading to unbalanced data. To model the association pattern between gap times, so far only parametric margins combined with the r…
This article proposes copula-based dependence quantification between multiple groups of random variables of possibly different sizes via the family of $Phi$-divergences. An axiomatic framework for this purpose is provided, after which we focus on the absolutely continuous setting assuming copula densities exist. We consider parametric and semi-parametric frameworks, discuss estimation procedures, and report on asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators. In particular, we first concentrate on a Gaussian copula approach yielding explicit and attractive dependence coefficients for specific …
Copula models have been widely used to model the dependence between continuous random variables, but modeling count data via copulas has recently become popular in the statistics literature. Spearman's rho is an appropriate and effective tool to measure the degree of dependence between two random variables. In this paper, we derived the population version of Spearman's rho correlation via copulas when both random variables are discrete. The closed-form expressions of the Spearman correlation are obtained for some copulas of simple structure such as Archimedean copulas with different marginal d…
A2 Copula-Driven Spatial Bayesian Neural Network For Modeling Non-Gaussian Dependence: A Simulation Study
Department of Mathematics, University of Louisiana at Lafayette（数学系，路易斯安那州立大学拉斐特分校）；Department of Physical Sciences & Mathematics, West Liberty University（物理科学与数学系，韦斯特利比大学）；Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Minnesota State University（数学与统计学系，明尼苏达州立大学）；Department of Statistics, formerly of Presidency College, Kolkata, India（统计学系，原加尔各答 Presidency College）；Department of Kinesiology, University of Louisiana at Lafayette（运动科学系，路易斯安那州立大学拉斐特分校）；Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Texas Tech University（数学与统计学系，德克萨斯技术大学）；The Office of Vice President for Research, Innovation, and Economic Development, University of Louisiana at Lafayette（研究、创新与经济发展副总监办公室，路易斯安那州立大学拉斐特分校）
