The goal of this paper is to develop a measure for characterizing complex dependence between stationary time series that cannot be captured by traditional measures such as correlation and coherence. Our approach is to use copula models of functionals of the Fourier coefficients which is a generalization of coherence. Here, we use standard parametric copula models with a single parameter both from elliptical and Archimedean families. Our approach is to analyze changes in local field potentials in the rat cortex prior to and immediately following the onset of stroke. We present the necessary theoretical background, the multivariate models and an illustration of our methodology on these local field potential data. Simulations with non-linear dependent data show information that were missed by not taking into account dependence on specific frequencies. Moreover, these simulations demonstrate how our proposed method captures more complex non-linear dependence between time series. Finally, we illustrate our copula-based approach in the analysis of local field potentials of rats.
The study of dependence between random variables is the core of theoretical and applied statistics. Static and dynamic copula models are useful for describing the dependence structure, which is fully encrypted in the copula probability density function. However, these models are not always able to describe the temporal change of the dependence patterns, which is a key characteristic of financial data. We propose a novel nonparametric framework for modelling a time series of copula probability density functions, which allows to forecast the entire function without the need of post-processing pr…
This work examines how the dependence structures between energy futures asset prices differ in two periods identified before and after the 2008 global financial crisis. These two periods were characterised by a difference in the number of extraordinary meetings of OPEC countries organised to announce a change of oil production. In the period immediately following the global financial crisis, the decrease in oil prices and oil and gas demand forced OPEC countries to make frequent adjustments to the production of oil, while, since the first quarter of 2010, the recovery led to more regular meeti…
We present a new functional Bayes classifier that uses principal component (PC) or partial least squares (PLS) scores from the common covariance function, that is, the covariance function marginalized over groups. When the groups have different covariance functions, the PC or PLS scores need not be independent or even uncorrelated. We use copulas to model the dependence. Our method is semiparametric; the marginal densities are estimated nonparametrically by kernel smoothing and the copula is modeled parametrically. We focus on Gaussian and t-copulas, but other copulas could be used. The strong…
Copula models are flexible tools to represent complex structures of dependence for multivariate random variables. According to Sklar's theorem (Sklar, 1959), any d-dimensional absolutely continuous density can be uniquely represented as the product of the marginal distributions and a copula function which captures the dependence structure among the vector components. In real data applications, the interest of the analyses often lies on specific functionals of the dependence, which quantify aspects of it in a few numerical values. A broad literature exists on such functionals, however extension…
The smooth bootstrap for estimating copula functionals in small samples is investigated. It can be used both to gauge the distribution of the estimator in question and to augment the data. Issues arising from kernel density and distribution estimation in the copula domain are addressed, such as how to avoid the bounded domain, which bandwidth matrix to choose, and how the smoothing can be carried out. Furthermore, we investigate how the smooth bootstrap impacts the underlying dependence structure or the functionals in question and under which conditions it does not. We provide specific example…
We consider a strictly stationary and ergodic sequence of random elements taking values in some Hilbert space. Our target is to study the weak convergence of the discrete Fourier transforms under sharp conditions. As a side-result we obtain the regular CLT for partial sums under mild assumptions.
We describe a simple method for making inference on a functional of a multivariate distribution. The method is based on a copula representation of the multivariate distribution and it is based on the properties of an Approximate Bayesian Monte Carlo algorithm, where the proposed values of the functional of interest are weighed in terms of their empirical likelihood. This method is particularly useful when the "true" likelihood function associated with the working model is too costly to evaluate or when the working model is only partially specified.
A bootstrap procedure for functional time series is proposed which exploits a general vector autoregressive representation of the time series of Fourier coefficients appearing in the Karhunen-Loève expansion of the functional process. A double sieve-type bootstrap method is developed which avoids the estimation of process operators and generates functional pseudo-time series that appropriately mimic the dependence structure of the functional time series at hand. The method uses a finite set of functional principal components to capture the essential driving parts of the infinite dimensional pr…
We develop the basic building blocks of a frequency domain framework for drawing statistical inferences on the second-order structure of a stationary sequence of functional data. The key element in such a context is the spectral density operator, which generalises the notion of a spectral density matrix to the functional setting, and characterises the second-order dynamics of the process. Our main tool is the functional Discrete Fourier Transform (fDFT). We derive an asymptotic Gaussian representation of the fDFT, thus allowing the transformation of the original collection of dependent random …
Copula models have been widely used to model the dependence between continuous random variables, but modeling count data via copulas has recently become popular in the statistics literature. Spearman's rho is an appropriate and effective tool to measure the degree of dependence between two random variables. In this paper, we derived the population version of Spearman's rho correlation via copulas when both random variables are discrete. The closed-form expressions of the Spearman correlation are obtained for some copulas of simple structure such as Archimedean copulas with different marginal d…
We propose a class of flexible non-parametric tests for the presence of dependence between components of a random vector based on weighted Cramér-von Mises functionals of the empirical copula process. The weights act as a tuning parameter and are shown to significantly influence the power of the test, making it more sensitive to different types of dependence. Asymptotic properties of the test are stated in the general case, for an arbitrary bounded and integrable weighting function, and computational formulas for a number of weighted statistics are provided. Several issues relating to the choi…
We study the volatility functional inference by Fourier transforms. This spectral framework is advantageous in that it harnesses the power of harmonic analysis to handle missing data and asynchronous observations without any artificial time alignment nor data imputation. Under conditions, this spectral approach is consistent and we provide limit distributions using irregular and asynchronous observations. When observations are synchronous, the Fourier transform method for volatility functionals attains both the optimal convergence rate and the efficient bound in the sense of Le Cam and Hájek. …
