Multi-agent trajectory forecasting in autonomous driving requires an agent to accurately anticipate the behaviors of the surrounding vehicles and pedestrians, for safe and reliable decision-making. Due to partial observability in these dynamical scenes, directly obtaining the posterior distribution over future agent trajectories remains a challenging problem. In realistic embodied environments, each agent's future trajectories should be both diverse since multiple plausible sequences of actions can be used to reach its intended goals, and admissible since they must obey physical constraints and stay in drivable areas. In this paper, we propose a model that synthesizes multiple input signals from the multimodal world|the environment's scene context and interactions between multiple surrounding agents|to best model all diverse and admissible trajectories. We compare our model with strong baselines and ablations across two public datasets and show a significant performance improvement over previous state-of-the-art methods. Lastly, we offer new metrics incorporating admissibility criteria to further study and evaluate the diversity of predictions. Codes are at: https://github.com/kami93/CMU-DATF.
Learning Cooperative Trajectory Representations for Motion Forecasting
Institute for AI Industry Research (AIR), Tsinghua University（清华大学人工智能产业研究院（AIR））；University of Chinese Academy of Science（中国科学院大学）；The University of Hong Kong（香港大学）
Ferdowsi University of Mashhad（马什哈德菲尔多西大学）；University of Adelaide（阿德莱德大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Monash University（莫纳什大学）
Joint forecasting of human trajectory and pose dynamics is a fundamental building block of various applications ranging from robotics and autonomous driving to surveillance systems. Predicting body dynamics requires capturing subtle information embedded in the humans' interactions with each other and with the objects present in the scene. In this paper, we propose a novel TRajectory and POse Dynamics (nicknamed TRiPOD) method based on graph attentional networks to model the human-human and human-object interactions both in the input space and the output space (decoded future output). The model…
HPNet: Dynamic Trajectory Forecasting with Historical Prediction Attention
Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院计算技术研究所）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）；Tomorrow Advancing Life
Southern University of Science and Technology（南方科技大学）；University of Birmingham（伯明翰大学）
Pedestrian trajectory forecasting is a fundamental task in multiple utility areas, such as self-driving, autonomous robots, and surveillance systems. The future trajectory forecasting is multi-modal, influenced by physical interaction with scene contexts and intricate social interactions among pedestrians. The mainly existing literature learns representations of social interactions by deep learning networks, while the explicit interaction patterns are not utilized. Different interaction patterns, such as following or collision avoiding, will generate different trends of next movement, thus, th…
Forecasting the behavior of other agents is an integral part of the modern robotic autonomy stack, especially in safety-critical scenarios with human-robot interaction, such as autonomous driving. In turn, there has been a significant amount of interest and research in trajectory forecasting, resulting in a wide variety of approaches. Common to all works, however, is the use of the same few accuracy-based evaluation metrics, e.g., displacement error and log-likelihood. While these metrics are informative, they are task-agnostic and predictions that are evaluated as equal can lead to vastly dif…
MUSCLE-NET: Predicted-Multiscale-Aware Network for Pedestrian Trajectory Forecasting
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Fully Actuated System Control Theory and Technology, School of Automation and Intelligent Manufacturing, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen（广东省全主动系统控制理论与技术重点实验室，自动化与智能制造学院，南方科技大学（SUSTech），深圳）；Department of Mechanical Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China（香港城市大学机械工程系，香港特别行政区，中国）
Trajectory forecasting, or trajectory prediction, of multiple interacting agents in dynamic scenes, is an important problem for many applications, such as robotic systems and autonomous driving. The problem is a great challenge because of the complex interactions among the agents and their interactions with the surrounding scenes. In this paper, we present a novel method for the robust trajectory forecasting of multiple intelligent agents in dynamic scenes. The proposed method consists of three major interrelated components: an interaction net for global spatiotemporal interactive feature extr…
Toyota Research Institute（丰田研究院）；NVIDIA Research（英伟达研究院）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
Reasoning about the future behavior of other agents is critical to safe robot navigation. The multiplicity of plausible futures is further amplified by the uncertainty inherent to agent state estimation from data, including positions, velocities, and semantic class. Forecasting methods, however, typically neglect class uncertainty, conditioning instead only on the agent's most likely class, even though perception models often return full class distributions. To exploit this information, we present HAICU, a method for heterogeneous-agent trajectory forecasting that explicitly incorporates agent…
An active area of research is to increase the safety of self-driving vehicles. Although safety cannot be guarenteed completely, the capability of a vehicle to predict the future trajectories of its surrounding vehicles could help ensure this notion of safety to a greater deal. We cast the trajectory forecast problem in a multi-time step forecasting problem and develop a Convolutional Neural Network based approach to learn from trajectory sequences generated from completely raw dataset in real-time. Results show improvement over baselines.
Autonomous driving vehicles (ADVs) hold great hopes to solve traffic congestion problems and reduce the number of traffic accidents. Accurate trajectories prediction of other traffic agents around ADVs is of key importance to achieve safe and efficient driving. Pedestrians, particularly, are more challenging to forecast due to their complex social in-teractions and randomly moving patterns. We propose a Residual Graph Convolutional Neural Network (Res-GCNN), which models the interactive behaviors of pedes-trians by using the adjacent matrix of the constructed graph for the current scene. Thoug…
Robust motion forecasting of the dynamic scene is a critical component of an autonomous vehicle. It is a challenging problem due to the heterogeneity in the scene and the inherent uncertainties in the problem. To improve the accuracy of motion forecasting, in this work, we identify a new consistency constraint in this task, that is an agent's future trajectory should be coherent with its history observations and visa versa. To leverage this property, we propose a novel cycle consistency training scheme and define a novel cycle loss to encourage this consistency. In particular, we reverse the p…
DD-MDN: Human Trajectory Forecasting with Diffusion-Based Dual Mixture Density Networks and Uncertainty Self-Calibration
Faculty of Engineering, University of Applied Sciences Aschaffenburg（亚琛应用科学大学工程学院）；Intelligent Embedded Systems Lab, University of Kassel（卡塞尔大学智能嵌入式系统实验室）
Controllable Diverse Sampling for Diffusion Based Motion Behavior Forecasting
Leibniz University Hannover（汉诺威莱布尼茨大学）；Institute of Cartography and Geoinformatics（制图与地理信息研究所）；University of Twente（特温特大学）；Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation（地理信息科学与地球观测学院）
Middle East Technical University（中东技术大学）；KUIS AI Center（KUIS人工智能中心）；Koç University（科奇大学）
Predicting future locations of agents in the scene is an important problem in self-driving. In recent years, there has been a significant progress in representing the scene and the agents in it. The interactions of agents with the scene and with each other are typically modeled with a Graph Neural Network. However, the graph structure is mostly static and fails to represent the temporal changes in highly dynamic scenes. In this work, we propose a temporal graph representation to better capture the dynamics in traffic scenes. We complement our representation with two types of memory modules; on…
AImageLab（AImage实验室）；University of Modena and Reggio Emilia（摩德纳-雷焦艾米利亚大学）
Understanding human motion behaviour is a critical task for several possible applications like self-driving cars or social robots, and in general for all those settings where an autonomous agent has to navigate inside a human-centric environment. This is non-trivial because human motion is inherently multi-modal: given a history of human motion paths, there are many plausible ways by which people could move in the future. Additionally, people activities are often driven by goals, e.g. reaching particular locations or interacting with the environment. We address the aforementioned aspects by pr…
When humans navigate a crowed space such as a university campus or the sidewalks of a busy street, they follow common sense rules based on social etiquette. In this paper, we argue that in order to enable the design of new algorithms that can take fully advantage of these rules to better solve tasks such as target tracking or trajectory forecasting, we need to have access to better data in the first place. To that end, we contribute the very first large scale dataset (to the best of our knowledge) that collects images and videos of various types of targets (not just pedestrians, but also biker…
TaPD: Temporal-adaptive Progressive Distillation for Observation-Adaptive Trajectory Forecasting in Autonomous Driving
College of Information and Intelligent Science, Donghua University（信息与智能科学学院，东华大学）；School of Computing and Information Technology, Great Bay Institute for Advanced Study/Great Bay University（计算与信息技术学院，大澳研究院/大澳大学）；Chongqing Chang’an Technology Co., Ltd（重庆长安科技有限公司）；ViSiR, Reutlingen University（ViSiR，鲁特大学）
LANet: A Lane Boundaries-Aware Approach For Robust Trajectory Prediction
Artificial Intelligence Creative Research Lab, ETRI University of Science（ETRI人工智能创意研究实验室，科学技术大学）；Artificial Intelligence Creative Research Lab, ETRI Daejeon, South Korea（ETRI人工智能创意研究实验室，韩国大田）
Out-of-Sight Embodied Agents: Multimodal Tracking, Sensor Fusion, and Trajectory Forecasting
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Northeastern University（东北大学电气与计算机工程系）；Khoury College of Computer Sciences, Northeastern University（东北大学库里计算机科学学院）
In Argoverse motion forecasting competition, the task is to predict the probabilistic future trajectory distribution for the interested targets in the traffic scene. We use vectorized lane map and 2 s targets' history trajectories as input. Then the model outputs 6 forecasted trajectories with probability for each target.
University of Warwick（华威大学）；Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）
We introduce the task of multi-camera trajectory forecasting (MCTF), where the future trajectory of an object is predicted in a network of cameras. Prior works consider forecasting trajectories in a single camera view. Our work is the first to consider the challenging scenario of forecasting across multiple non-overlapping camera views. This has wide applicability in tasks such as re-identification and multi-target multi-camera tracking. To facilitate research in this new area, we release the Warwick-NTU Multi-camera Forecasting Database (WNMF), a unique dataset of multi-camera pedestrian traj…
Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；Tencent Robotics X（腾讯Robotics X）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）
In this paper, we address the problem of forecasting the trajectory of an egocentric camera wearer (ego-person) in crowded spaces. The trajectory forecasting ability learned from the data of different camera wearers walking around in the real world can be transferred to assist visually impaired people in navigation, as well as to instill human navigation behaviours in mobile robots, enabling better human-robot interactions. To this end, a novel egocentric human trajectory forecasting dataset was constructed, containing real trajectories of people navigating in crowded spaces wearing a camera, …
Xi’an Jiaotong University（西安交通大学）；Chang’an University（长安大学）；The University of Sydney（悉尼大学）
Trajectory forecasting is critical for autonomous platforms to make safe planning and actions. Currently, most trajectory forecasting methods assume that object trajectories have been extracted and directly develop trajectory predictors based on the ground truth trajectories. However, this assumption does not hold in practical situations. Trajectories obtained from object detection and tracking are inevitably noisy, which could cause serious forecasting errors to predictors built on ground truth trajectories. In this paper, we propose a trajectory predictor directly based on detection results …
This paper introduces a joint learning architecture (JLA) for multiple object tracking (MOT) and trajectory forecasting in which the goal is to predict objects' current and future trajectories simultaneously. Motion prediction is widely used in several state of the art MOT methods to refine predictions in the form of bounding boxes. Typically, a Kalman Filter provides short-term estimations to help trackers correctly predict objects' locations in the current frame. However, the Kalman Filter-based approaches cannot predict non-linear trajectories. We propose to jointly train a tracking and tra…
Human trajectory forecasting in crowds, at its core, is a sequence prediction problem with specific challenges of capturing inter-sequence dependencies (social interactions) and consequently predicting socially-compliant multimodal distributions. In recent years, neural network-based methods have been shown to outperform hand-crafted methods on distance-based metrics. However, these data-driven methods still suffer from one crucial limitation: lack of interpretability. To overcome this limitation, we leverage the power of discrete choice models to learn interpretable rule-based intents, and su…
Since the past few decades, human trajectory forecasting has been a field of active research owing to its numerous real-world applications: evacuation situation analysis, deployment of intelligent transport systems, traffic operations, to name a few. Early works handcrafted this representation based on domain knowledge. However, social interactions in crowded environments are not only diverse but often subtle. Recently, deep learning methods have outperformed their handcrafted counterparts, as they learned about human-human interactions in a more generic data-driven fashion. In this work, we p…
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）
The historical trajectories previously passing through a location may help infer the future trajectory of an agent currently at this location. Despite great improvements in trajectory forecasting with the guidance of high-definition maps, only a few works have explored such local historical information. In this work, we re-introduce this information as a new type of input data for trajectory forecasting systems: the local behavior data, which we conceptualize as a collection of location-specific historical trajectories. Local behavior data helps the systems emphasize the prediction locality an…
Variational autoencoder (VAE) has widely been utilized for modeling data distributions because it is theoretically elegant, easy to train, and has nice manifold representations. However, when applied to image reconstruction and synthesis tasks, VAE shows the limitation that the generated sample tends to be blurry. We observe that a similar problem, in which the generated trajectory is located between adjacent lanes, often arises in VAE-based trajectory forecasting models. To mitigate this problem, we introduce a hierarchical latent structure into the VAE-based forecasting model. Based on the a…
Trajectory forecasting plays a pivotal role in the field of intelligent vehicles or social robots. Recent works focus on modeling spatial social impacts or temporal motion attentions, but neglect inherent properties of motions, i.e. moving trends and driving intentions. This paper proposes a context-free Hierarchical Motion Encoder-Decoder Network (HMNet) for vehicle trajectory prediction. HMNet first infers the hierarchical difference on motions to encode physically compliant patterns with high expressivity of moving trends and driving intentions. Then, a goal (endpoint)-embedded decoder hier…
University of Verona（维罗纳大学）；Inception Institute of Artificial Intelligence（创世纪人工智能研究所）；Sapienza University of Rome（罗马大学）
Most recent successes on forecasting the people motion are based on LSTM models and all most recent progress has been achieved by modelling the social interaction among people and the people interaction with the scene. We question the use of the LSTM models and propose the novel use of Transformer Networks for trajectory forecasting. This is a fundamental switch from the sequential step-by-step processing of LSTMs to the only-attention-based memory mechanisms of Transformers. In particular, we consider both the original Transformer Network (TF) and the larger Bidirectional Transformer (BERT), …
Sapienza University of Rome（罗马第一大学）；University of Verona（维罗纳大学）；Inception Institute of Artificial Intelligence（起源人工智能研究院）
Transformer Networks have established themselves as the de-facto state-of-the-art for trajectory forecasting but there is currently no systematic study on their capability to model the motion patterns of people, without interactions with other individuals nor the social context. This paper proposes the first in-depth study of Transformer Networks (TF) and Bidirectional Transformers (BERT) for the forecasting of the individual motion of people, without bells and whistles. We conduct an exhaustive evaluation of input/output representations, problem formulations and sequence modeling, including a…
Human trajectory forecasting in crowds presents the challenges of modelling social interactions and outputting collision-free multimodal distribution. Following the success of Social Generative Adversarial Networks (SGAN), recent works propose various GAN-based designs to better model human motion in crowds. Despite superior performance in reducing distance-based metrics, current networks fail to output socially acceptable trajectories, as evidenced by high collisions in model predictions. To counter this, we introduce SGANv2: an improved safety-compliant SGAN architecture equipped with spatio…
Multi-person pose forecasting remains a challenging problem, especially in modeling fine-grained human body interaction in complex crowd scenarios. Existing methods typically represent the whole pose sequence as a temporal series, yet overlook interactive influences among people based on skeletal body parts. In this paper, we propose a novel Trajectory-Aware Body Interaction Transformer (TBIFormer) for multi-person pose forecasting via effectively modeling body part interactions. Specifically, we construct a Temporal Body Partition Module that transforms all the pose sequences into a Multi-Per…
We address multi-modal trajectory forecasting of agents in unknown scenes by formulating it as a planning problem. We present an approach consisting of three models; a goal prediction model to identify potential goals of the agent, an inverse reinforcement learning model to plan optimal paths to each goal, and a trajectory generator to obtain future trajectories along the planned paths. Analysis of predictions on the Stanford drone dataset, shows generalizability of our approach to novel scenes.
University of Warwick（华威大学）；Michigan State University（密歇根州立大学）
Reliable anticipation of pedestrian trajectory is imperative for the operation of autonomous vehicles and can significantly enhance the functionality of advanced driver assistance systems. While significant progress has been made in the field of pedestrian detection, forecasting pedestrian trajectories remains a challenging problem due to the unpredictable nature of pedestrians and the huge space of potentially useful features. In this work, we present a deep learning approach for pedestrian trajectory forecasting using a single vehicle-mounted camera. Deep learning models that have revolution…
Sharif University of Technology（谢里夫理工大学）；Institute of Science and Technology Austria (IST Austria)（奥地利科学技术研究所（IST Austria））
We introduce a spatio-temporal convolutional neural network model for trajectory forecasting from visual sources. Applied in an auto-regressive way it provides an explicit probability distribution over continuations of a given initial trajectory segment. We discuss it in relation to (more complicated) existing work and report on experiments on two standard datasets for trajectory forecasting: MNISTseq and Stanford Drones, achieving results on-par with or better than previous methods.
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；State Key Lab of Intelligent Technologies and Systems（智能技术与系统国家重点实验室）；Beijing National Research Center for Information Science and Technology（北京信息科学与技术国家研究中心）
Forecasting human trajectories in complex dynamic environments plays a critical role in autonomous vehicles and intelligent robots. Most existing methods learn to predict future trajectories by behavior clues from history trajectories and interaction clues from environments. However, the inherent bias between training and deployment environments is ignored. Hence, we propose a counterfactual analysis method for human trajectory prediction to investigate the causality between the predicted trajectories and input clues and alleviate the negative effects brought by environment bias. We first buil…
