We propose a new statistical estimation framework for a large family of global sensitivity analysis methods. Our approach is based on rank statistics and uses an empirical correlation coefficient recently introduced by Sourav Chatterjee. We show how to apply this approach to compute not only the Cramér-von-Mises indices, which are directly related to Chatterjee's notion of correlation, but also Sobol indices at any order, higher-order moment indices, and Shapley effects. We establish consistency of the resulting estimators and demonstrate their numerical efficiency, especially for small sample sizes.
Stochastic simulators such as Monte-Carlo estimators are widely used in science and engineering to study physical systems through their probabilistic representation. Global sensitivity analysis aims to identify the input parameters which have the most important impact on the output. A popular tool to perform global sensitivity analysis is the variance-based method which comes from the Hoeffding-Sobol decomposition. Nevertheless, this method requires an important number of simulations and is often unfeasible under reasonable time constraint. Therefore, an approximation of the input/output relat…
The normality assumption on data set is very restrictive approach for modelling. The generalized form of normal distribution, named as an exponential power (EP) distribution, and its scale mixture form have been considered extensively to overcome the problem for modelling non-normal data set since last decades. However, examining the robustness properties of maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of parameters in these distributions, such as the in uence function, gross-error sensitivity, breakdown point and information-standardized sensitivity, has not been considered together. The well-known asy…
In the context of computer code experiments, sensitivity analysis of a complicated input-output system is often performed by ranking the so-called Sobol indices. One reason of the popularity of Sobol's approach relies on the simplicity of the statistical estimation of these indices using the so-called Pick and Freeze method. In this work we propose and study sensitivity indices for the case where the output lies on a Riemannian manifold. These indices are based on a Cramér von Mises like criterion that takes into account the geometry of the output support. We propose a Pick-Freeze like estimat…
To identify the estimand in missing data problems and observational studies, it is common to base the statistical estimation on the "missing at random" and "no unmeasured confounder" assumptions. However, these assumptions are unverifiable using empirical data and pose serious threats to the validity of the qualitative conclusions of the statistical inference. A sensitivity analysis asks how the conclusions may change if the unverifiable assumptions are violated to a certain degree. In this paper we consider a marginal sensitivity model which is a natural extension of Rosenbaum's sensitivity m…
Let F_{θ} be a family of distributions with support on the set of nonnegative integers Z_0. In this paper we derive the M-estimators with smallest gross error sensitivity (GES). We start by defining the uniform median of a distribution F with support on Z_0 (umed(F)) as the median of x+u, where x and u are independent variables with distributions F and uniform in [-0.5,0.5] respectively. Under some general conditions we prove that the estimator with smallest GES satisfies umed(F_{n})=umed(F_{θ}), where F_{n} is the empirical distribution. The asymptotic distribution of these estimators is foun…
The subject of robust estimation in time series is widely discussed in literature. One of the approaches is to use GM-estimation. This method incorporates a broad class of nonparametric estimators which under suitable conditions includes estimators robust to outliers in data. For the linear models the sensitivity of GM-estimators to outliers have been studied in the work by Martin and Yohai [5], and influence functionals for this estimator were derived. In this paper we follow this direction and examine the asymptotical properties of the class of M-estimators, which is narrower than the class …
Many mathematical models involve input parameters, which are not precisely known. Global sensitivity analysis aims to identify the parameters whose uncertainty has the largest impact on the variability of a quantity of interest (output of the model). One of the statistical tools used to quantify the influence of each input variable on the output is the Sobol sensitivity index. We consider the statistical estimation of this index from a finite sample of model outputs: we present two estimators and state a central limit theorem for each. We show that one of these estimators has an optimal asympt…
General depth weighted scatter estimators are introduced and investigated. For general depth functions, we find out that these affine equivariant scatter estimators are Fisher consistent and unbiased for a wide range of multivariate distributions, and show that the sample scatter estimators are strong and \sqrtn-consistent and asymptotically normal, and the influence functions of the estimators exist and are bounded in general. We then concentrate on a specific case of the general depth weighted scatter estimators, the projection depth weighted scatter estimators, which include as a special ca…
We introduce several methods for assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounding in marginal structural models; importantly we allow treatments to be discrete or continuous, static or time-varying. We consider three sensitivity models: a propensity-based model, an outcome-based model, and a subset confounding model, in which only a fraction of the population is subject to unmeasured confounding. In each case we develop efficient estimators and confidence intervals for bounds on the causal parameters.
In this paper, we derive copula-based and empirical dependency models (DMs) for simulating non-independent variables, and then propose a new way for determining the distribution of the model outputs conditional on every subset of inputs. Our approach relies on equivalent representations of the model outputs using DMs, and an algorithm is provided for selecting the representations that are necessary and sufficient for deriving the distribution of the model outputs given each subset of inputs. In sensitivity analysis, the selected representations allow for assessing the main, total and interacti…
We present a second-order estimator of the mean of a variable subject to missingness, under the missing at random assumption. The estimator improves upon existing methods by using an approximate second-order expansion of the parameter functional, in addition to the first-order expansion employed by standard doubly robust methods. This results in weaker assumptions about the convergence rates necessary to establish consistency, local efficiency, and asymptotic linearity. The general estimation strategy is developed under the targeted minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) framework. We present a …
Weighting methods are popular tools for estimating causal effects; assessing their robustness under unobserved confounding is important in practice. In the following paper, we introduce a new set of sensitivity models called "variance-based sensitivity models". Variance-based sensitivity models characterize the bias from omitting a confounder by bounding the distributional differences that arise in the weights from omitting a confounder, with several notable innovations over existing approaches. First, the variance-based sensitivity models can be parameterized with respect to a simple $R^2$ pa…
Many useful parameters depend on nonparametric first steps. Examples include games, dynamic discrete choice, average exact consumer surplus, and treatment effects. Often estimators of these parameters are asymptotically equivalent to a sample average of an object referred to as the influence function. The influence function is useful in local policy analysis, in evaluating local sensitivity of estimators, constructing debiased machine learning estimators, in efficiency comparisons, and in formulating primitive regularity conditions for asymptotic normality, We show that the influence function …
In observational research treatment effects, the average treatment effect (ATE) estimator may be biased if a confounding variable is misclassified. We discuss the impact of classification error in a dichotomous confounding variable in analyses using marginal structural models estimated using inverse probability weighting (MSMs-IPW) and compare this with its impact in conditional regression models, focusing on a point-treatment study with a continuous outcome. Expressions were derived for the bias in the ATE estimator from a MSM-IPW and conditional model by using the potential outcome framework…
Virginia Tech（弗吉尼亚理工学院）；Argonne National Laboratory（阿贡国家实验室）；Université Côte d’Azur（蔚蓝海岸大学）；Inria（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；LJAD（朱西厄分析、几何与应用实验室）
In recent years, active subspace methods (ASMs) have become a popular means of performing subspace sensitivity analysis on black-box functions. Naively applied, however, ASMs require gradient evaluations of the target function. In the event of noisy, expensive, or stochastic simulators, evaluating gradients via finite differencing may be infeasible. In such cases, often a surrogate model is employed, on which finite differencing is performed. When the surrogate model is a Gaussian process, we show that the ASM estimator is available in closed form, rendering the finite-difference approximation…
Correction for Weak IV Bias and Winner's Curse in Mendelian Randomization Egger Regression: Rerandomized Egger estimator
Huazhong University of Science and Technology（华中科技大学）；Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology（华中科技大学同济医学院附属同济医院）
We consider inference in models defined by approximate moment conditions. We show that near-optimal confidence intervals (CIs) can be formed by taking a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, and adding and subtracting the standard error times a critical value that takes into account the potential bias from misspecification of the moment conditions. In order to optimize performance under potential misspecification, the weighting matrix for this GMM estimator takes into account this potential bias, and therefore differs from the one that is optimal under correct specification. To formal…
Analyzing Within-Subject Experiments: Identification, Testing, and Sensitivity
National School of Development, Peking University（北京大学国家发展研究院）；Governance Lab, Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院治理实验室）；Center for Statistical Science, Peking University（北京大学统计科学中心）
Shrinkage estimators of covariance are an important tool in modern applied and theoretical statistics. They play a key role in regularized estimation problems, such as ridge regression (aka Tykhonov regularization), regularized discriminant analysis and a variety of optimization problems. In this paper, we bring to bear the tools of random matrix theory to understand their behavior, and in particular, that of quadratic forms involving inverses of those estimators, which are important in practice. We use very mild assumptions compared to the usual assumptions made in random matrix theory, requi…
This paper is dedicated to the study of an estimator of the generalized Hoeffding decomposition. We build such an estimator using an empirical Gram-Schmidt approach and derive a consistency rate in a large dimensional settings. Then, we apply a greedy algorithm with these previous estimators to Sensitivity Analysis. We also establish the consistency of this $\mathbb L_2$-boosting up to sparsity assumptions on the signal to analyse. We end the paper with numerical experiments, which demonstrates the low computational cost of our method as well as its efficiency on standard benchmark of Sensitiv…
In this paper, we aim to estimate block-diagonal covariance matrices for Gaussian data in high dimension and in fixed dimension. We first estimate the block-diagonal structure of the covariance matrix by theoretical and practical estimators which are consistent. We deduce that the suggested estimator of the covariance matrix in high dimension converges with the same rate than if the true decomposition was known. In fixed dimension , we prove that the suggested estimator is asymptotically efficient. Then, we focus on the estimation of sensitivity indices called "Shapley effects", in the high-di…
In this paper, we present perturbed law-based sensitivity indices and how to adapt them for quantile-oriented sensitivity analysis. We exhibit a simple way to compute these indices in practice using an importance sampling estimator for quantiles. Some useful asymptotic results about this estimator are also provided. Finally, we apply this method to the study of a numerical model which simulates the behaviour of a component in a hydraulic system in case of severe transient solicitations. The sensitivity analysis is used to assess the impact of epistemic uncertainties about some physical paramet…
The Shapley effects are global sensitivity indices: they quantify the impact of each input variable on the output variable in a model. In this work, we suggest new estimators of these sensitivity indices. When the input distribution is known, we investigate the already existing estimator and suggest a new one with a lower variance. Then, when the distribution of the inputs is unknown, we extend these estimators. Finally, we provide asymptotic properties of the estimators studied in this article.
This paper studies local asymptotic relationship between two scalar estimates. We define sensitivity of a target estimate to a control estimate to be the directional derivative of the target functional with respect to the gradient direction of the control functional. Sensitivity according to the information metric on the model manifold is the asymptotic covariance of regular efficient estimators. Sensitivity according to a general policy metric on the model manifold can be obtained from influence functions of regular efficient estimators. Policy sensitivity has a local counterfactual interpret…
Regularizing nested Monte Carlo Sobol' index estimators to balance the trade-off between explorations and repetitions in global sensitivity analysis of stochastic models
Sobol' sensitivity indices allow to quantify the respective effects of random input variables and their combinations on the variance of mathematical model output. We focus on the problem of Sobol' indices estimation via a metamodeling approach where we replace the true mathematical model with a sample-based approximation to compute sensitivity indices. We propose a new method for indices quality control and obtain asymptotic and non-asymptotic risk bounds for Sobol' indices estimates based on a general class of metamodels. Our analysis is closely connected with the problem of nonparametric fun…
In this paper we introduce an influence measure based on second order expansion of the RV and GCD measures for the comparison between unperturbed and perturbed eigenvectors of a symmetric matrix estimator. Example estimators are considered to highlight how this measure compliments recent influence analysis. Importantly, we also show how a sample based version of this measure can be used to accurately and efficiently detect influential observations in practice.
Robustness to outliers is often a desirable property of statistical estimators. Indeed many well known estimators offer very good optimal performance in theory but are unusable in applied contexts because of their sensitivity to outliers. Of particular interest to the authors is the case of covariance estimators in adaptive matched filtering schemes in signal processing applications such as RADAR and SONAR detection, for which a contamination by outliers of the estimated noise covariance can lead to a great impact on performances, in particular when these outliers are similar to the target sig…
The paper concerns quantile oriented sensitivity analysis. We rewrite the corresponding indices using the Conditional Tail Expectation risk measure. Then, we use this new expression to built estimators.
In this paper, we introduce new indices adapted to outputs valued in general metric spaces. This new class of indices encompasses the classical ones; in particular, the so-called Sobol indices and the Cram{é}r-von-Mises indices. Furthermore, we provide asymptotically Gaussian estimators of these indices based on U-statistics. Surprisingly, we prove the asymp-totic normality straightforwardly. Finally, we illustrate this new procedure on a toy model and on two real-data examples.
We consider the problem of mean estimation assuming only finite variance. We study a new class of mean estimators constructed by integrating over random noise applied to a soft-truncated empirical mean estimator. For appropriate choices of noise, we show that this can be computed in closed form, and utilizing relative entropy inequalities, these estimators enjoy deviations with exponential tails controlled by the second moment of the underlying distribution. We consider both additive and multiplicative noise, and several noise distribution families in our analysis. Furthermore, we empirically …
We propose to estimate a metamodel and the sensitivity indices of a complex model m in the Gaussian regression framework. Our approach combines methods for sensitivity analysis of complex models and statistical tools for sparse non-parametric estimation in multivariate Gaussian regression model. It rests on the construction of a metamodel for aproximating the Hoeffding-Sobol decomposition of m. This metamodel belongs to a reproducing kernel Hilbert space constructed as a direct sum of Hilbert spaces leading to a functional ANOVA decomposition. The estimation of the metamodel is carried out via…
Sensitivity indices when the inputs of a model are not independent are estimated by local polynomial techniques. Two original estimators based on local polynomial smoothers are proposed. Both have good theoretical properties which are exhibited and also illustrated through analytical examples. They are used to carry out a sensitivity analysis on a real case of a kinetic model with correlated parameters.
Bias robustness of depth estimators in multivariate settings
FAMAF, National University of Córdoba（科尔多瓦国立大学 FAMAF）；CIEM and CONICET, Argentina（阿根廷 CIEM 和 CONICET）；Department of Mathematics, National University of Río Cuarto, Argentina（里奥夸尔托国立大学数学系）
The simplest and most widely applied method for guaranteeing differential privacy is to add instance-independent noise to a statistic of interest that is scaled to its global sensitivity. However, global sensitivity is a worst-case notion that is often too conservative for realized dataset instances. We provide methods for scaling noise in an instance-dependent way and demonstrate that they provide greater accuracy under average-case distributional assumptions. Specifically, we consider the basic problem of privately estimating the mean of a real distribution from i.i.d.~samples. The standard …
