In this work, we propose a novel probabilistic sequence model that excels at capturing high variability in time series data, both across sequences and within an individual sequence. Our method uses temporal latent variables to capture information about the underlying data pattern and dynamically decodes the latent information into modifications of weights of the base decoder and recurrent model. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated on a range of synthetic and real-world sequential data that exhibit large scale variations, regime shifts, and complex dynamics.
Tennessee Tech. University（田纳西理工大学）；Texas A&M University at Qatar（德州农工大学卡塔尔分校）
Modern smart grids rely on advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) networks for monitoring and billing purposes. However, such an approach suffers from electricity theft cyberattacks. Different from the existing research that utilizes shallow, static, and customer-specific-based electricity theft detectors, this paper proposes a generalized deep recurrent neural network (RNN)-based electricity theft detector that can effectively thwart these cyberattacks. The proposed model exploits the time series nature of the customers' electricity consumption to implement a gated recurrent unit (GRU)-RNN, h…
Deep neural networks have shown promising results for various clinical prediction tasks such as diagnosis, mortality prediction, predicting duration of stay in hospital, etc. However, training deep networks -- such as those based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) -- requires large labeled data, high computational resources, and significant hyperparameter tuning effort. In this work, we investigate as to what extent can transfer learning address these issues when using deep RNNs to model multivariate clinical time series. We consider transferring the knowledge captured in an RNN trained on se…
Reservoir Computing (RC) refers to a Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) framework, frequently used for sequence learning and time series prediction. The RC system consists of a random fixed-weight RNN (the input-hidden reservoir layer) and a classifier (the hidden-output readout layer). Here we focus on the sequence learning problem, and we explore a different approach to RC. More specifically, we remove the non-linear neural activation function, and we consider an orthogonal reservoir acting on normalized states on the unit hypersphere. Surprisingly, our numerical results show that the system's…
An essential task in predictive maintenance is the prediction of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) through the analysis of multivariate time series. Using the sliding window method, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and conventional Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) approaches have produced impressive results on this matter, due to their ability to learn optimized features. However, sequence information is only partially modeled by CNN approaches. Due to the flatten mechanism in conventional RNNs, like Long Short Term Memories (LSTM), the temporal information within the window is not fully preserv…
In this paper, we use variational recurrent neural network to investigate the anomaly detection problem on graph time series. The temporal correlation is modeled by the combination of recurrent neural network (RNN) and variational inference (VI), while the spatial information is captured by the graph convolutional network. In order to incorporate external factors, we use feature extractor to augment the transition of latent variables, which can learn the influence of external factors. With the target function as accumulative ELBO, it is easy to extend this model to on-line method. The experime…
Denso Corporation（电装公司）；Toyohashi University of Technology（丰桥技术科学大学）
Clustering algorithms have wide applications and play an important role in data analysis fields including time series data analysis. However, in time series analysis, most of the algorithms used signal shape features or the initial value of hidden variable of a neural network. Little has been discussed on the methods based on the generative model of the time series. In this paper, we propose a new clustering algorithm focusing on the generative process of the signal with a recurrent neural network and the variational Bayes method. Our experiments show that the proposed algorithm not only has a…
We observe that the standard log likelihood training objective for a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model of time series data is equivalent to a variational Bayesian training objective, given the proper choice of generative and inference models. This perspective may motivate extensions to both RNNs and variational Bayesian models. We propose one such extension, where multiple particles are used for the hidden state of an RNN, allowing a natural representation of uncertainty or multimodality.
Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology（冲绳科学技术大学院大学）；Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology（韩国科学技术院）
This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differ…
In this paper we propose a model that combines the strengths of RNNs and SGVB: the Variational Recurrent Auto-Encoder (VRAE). Such a model can be used for efficient, large scale unsupervised learning on time series data, mapping the time series data to a latent vector representation. The model is generative, such that data can be generated from samples of the latent space. An important contribution of this work is that the model can make use of unlabeled data in order to facilitate supervised training of RNNs by initialising the weights and network state.
In this paper we propose mmFall - a novel fall detection system, which comprises of (i) the emerging millimeter-wave (mmWave) radar sensor to collect the human body's point cloud along with the body centroid, and (ii) a variational recurrent autoencoder (VRAE) to compute the anomaly level of the body motion based on the acquired point cloud. A fall is claimed to have occurred when the spike in anomaly level and the drop in centroid height occur simultaneously. The mmWave radar sensor provides several advantages, such as privacycompliance and high-sensitivity to motion, over the traditional sen…
Variational autoencoders (VAE) combined with hierarchical RNNs have emerged as a powerful framework for conversation modeling. However, they suffer from the notorious degeneration problem, where the decoders learn to ignore latent variables and reduce to vanilla RNNs. We empirically show that this degeneracy occurs mostly due to two reasons. First, the expressive power of hierarchical RNN decoders is often high enough to model the data using only its decoding distributions without relying on the latent variables. Second, the conditional VAE structure whose generation process is conditioned on …
The recurrent neural networks (RNN) with richly distributed internal states and flexible non-linear transition functions, have overtaken the dynamic Bayesian networks such as the hidden Markov models (HMMs) in the task of modeling highly structured sequential data. These data, such as from speech and handwriting, often contain complex relationships between the underlaying variational factors and the observed data. The standard RNN model has very limited randomness or variability in its structure, coming from the output conditional probability model. This paper will present different ways of us…
In this paper, we explore the inclusion of latent random variables into the dynamic hidden state of a recurrent neural network (RNN) by combining elements of the variational autoencoder. We argue that through the use of high-level latent random variables, the variational RNN (VRNN)1 can model the kind of variability observed in highly structured sequential data such as natural speech. We empirically evaluate the proposed model against related sequential models on four speech datasets and one handwriting dataset. Our results show the important roles that latent random variables can play in the …
AWS Deep Learning, Amazon（亚马逊 AWS 深度学习）；IBM Research（IBM 研究院）
We present a new topic model that generates documents by sampling a topic for one whole sentence at a time, and generating the words in the sentence using an RNN decoder that is conditioned on the topic of the sentence. We argue that this novel formalism will help us not only visualize and model the topical discourse structure in a document better, but also potentially lead to more interpretable topics since we can now illustrate topics by sampling representative sentences instead of bag of words or phrases. We present a variational auto-encoder approach for learning in which we use a factoriz…
In healthcare, applying deep learning models to electronic health records (EHRs) has drawn considerable attention. EHR data consist of a sequence of medical visits, i.e. a multivariate time series of diagnosis, medications, physical examinations, lab tests, etc. This sequential nature makes EHR well matching the power of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN). In this paper, we propose "Deep Diabetologist" - using RNNs for EHR sequential data modelling, to provide the personalized hyperglycemia medication prediction for diabetic patients. Particularly, we develop a hierarchical RNN to capture the hete…
University of Aberdeen（阿伯丁大学）；University of Sheffield（谢菲尔德大学）
Variational Autoencoder (VAE) is a powerful method for learning representations of high-dimensional data. However, VAEs can suffer from an issue known as latent variable collapse (or KL loss vanishing), where the posterior collapses to the prior and the model will ignore the latent codes in generative tasks. Such an issue is particularly prevalent when employing VAE-RNN architectures for text modelling (Bowman et al., 2016). In this paper, we present a simple architecture called holistic regularisation VAE (HR-VAE), which can effectively avoid latent variable collapse. Compared to existing VAE…
Research Center for Social Computing and Information Retrieval（社会计算与信息检索研究中心）；Harbin Institute of Technology（哈尔滨工业大学）
Understanding event and event-centered commonsense reasoning are crucial for natural language processing (NLP). Given an observed event, it is trivial for human to infer its intents and effects, while this type of If-Then reasoning still remains challenging for NLP systems. To facilitate this, a If-Then commonsense reasoning dataset Atomic is proposed, together with an RNN-based Seq2Seq model to conduct such reasoning. However, two fundamental problems still need to be addressed: first, the intents of an event may be multiple, while the generations of RNN-based Seq2Seq models are always semant…
Deakin University（迪肯大学）；Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology（日本北陆先端科学技术大学院大学）
We propose a framework called HyperVAE for encoding distributions of distributions. When a target distribution is modeled by a VAE, its neural network parameters θis drawn from a distribution p(θ) which is modeled by a hyper-level VAE. We propose a variational inference using Gaussian mixture models to implicitly encode the parameters θinto a low dimensional Gaussian distribution. Given a target distribution, we predict the posterior distribution of the latent code, then use a matrix-network decoder to generate a posterior distribution q(θ). HyperVAE can encode the parameters θin full in contr…
Efficient modeling of relational data arising in physical, social, and information sciences is challenging due to complicated dependencies within the data. In this work, we build off of semi-implicit graph variational auto-encoders to capture higher-order statistics in a low-dimensional graph latent representation. We incorporate hyperbolic geometry in the latent space through a Poincare embedding to efficiently represent graphs exhibiting hierarchical structure. To address the naive posterior latent distribution assumptions in classical variational inference, we use semi-implicit hierarchical…
Microsoft Maluuba（微软 Maluuba）；MILA, Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学 MILA）
Recurrent neural networks like long short-term memory (LSTM) are important architectures for sequential prediction tasks. LSTMs (and RNNs in general) model sequences along the forward time direction. Bidirectional LSTMs (Bi-LSTMs) on the other hand model sequences along both forward and backward directions and are generally known to perform better at such tasks because they capture a richer representation of the data. In the training of Bi-LSTMs, the forward and backward paths are learned independently. We propose a variant of the Bi-LSTM architecture, which we call Variational Bi-LSTM, that c…
The Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) is one of the most used unsupervised machine learning models. But although the default choice of a Gaussian distribution for both the prior and posterior represents a mathematically convenient distribution often leading to competitive results, we show that this parameterization fails to model data with a latent hyperspherical structure. To address this issue we propose using a von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution instead, leading to a hyperspherical latent space. Through a series of experiments we show how such a hyperspherical VAE, or $\mathcal{S}$-VAE, is mo…
Representation learning seeks to expose certain aspects of observed data in a learned representation that's amenable to downstream tasks like classification. For instance, a good representation for 2D images might be one that describes only global structure and discards information about detailed texture. In this paper, we present a simple but principled method to learn such global representations by combining Variational Autoencoder (VAE) with neural autoregressive models such as RNN, MADE and PixelRNN/CNN. Our proposed VAE model allows us to have control over what the global latent code can …
Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；Prosus AI（Prosus人工智能）；Prosus
A disentangled representation of a data set should be capable of recovering the underlying factors that generated it. One question that arises is whether using Euclidean space for latent variable models can produce a disentangled representation when the underlying generating factors have a certain geometrical structure. Take for example the images of a car seen from different angles. The angle has a periodic structure but a 1-dimensional representation would fail to capture this topology. How can we address this problem? The submissions presented for the first stage of the NeurIPS2019 Disentan…
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have been proven to be effective in modeling sequential data and they have been applied to boost a variety of tasks such as document classification, speech recognition and machine translation. Most of existing RNN models have been designed for sequences assumed to be identically and independently distributed (i.i.d). However, in many real-world applications, sequences are naturally linked. For example, web documents are connected by hyperlinks; and genes interact with each other. On the one hand, linked sequences are inherently not i.i.d., which poses tremendou…
MILA, Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学 MILA）；Microsoft Maluuba（微软 Maluuba）；MILA, Polytechnique Montréal（蒙特利尔理工学院 MILA）
Many efforts have been devoted to training generative latent variable models with autoregressive decoders, such as recurrent neural networks (RNN). Stochastic recurrent models have been successful in capturing the variability observed in natural sequential data such as speech. We unify successful ideas from recently proposed architectures into a stochastic recurrent model: each step in the sequence is associated with a latent variable that is used to condition the recurrent dynamics for future steps. Training is performed with amortized variational inference where the approximate posterior is …
University of Texas at Arlington（德克萨斯大学阿灵顿分校）；Tencent AI Lab（腾讯人工智能实验室）
Molecule generation is to design new molecules with specific chemical properties and further to optimize the desired chemical properties. Following previous work, we encode molecules into continuous vectors in the latent space and then decode the vectors into molecules under the variational autoencoder (VAE) framework. We investigate the posterior collapse problem of current RNN-based VAEs for molecule sequence generation. For the first time, we find that underestimated reconstruction loss leads to posterior collapse, and provide both theoretical and experimental evidence. We propose an effect…
Variational autoencoders were proven successful in domains such as computer vision and speech processing. Their adoption for modeling user preferences is still unexplored, although recently it is starting to gain attention in the current literature. In this work, we propose a model which extends variational autoencoders by exploiting the rich information present in the past preference history. We introduce a recurrent version of the VAE, where instead of passing a subset of the whole history regardless of temporal dependencies, we rather pass the consumption sequence subset through a recurrent…
Interactive Digital Media Institute（互动数字媒体研究所）；National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）
While much research effort has been dedicated to scaling up sparse Gaussian process (GP) models based on inducing variables for big data, little attention is afforded to the other less explored class of low-rank GP approximations that exploit the sparse spectral representation of a GP kernel. This paper presents such an effort to advance the state of the art of sparse spectrum GP models to achieve competitive predictive performance for massive datasets. Our generalized framework of stochastic variational Bayesian sparse spectrum GP (sVBSSGP) models addresses their shortcomings by adopting a Ba…
Indian Institute of Technology Delhi（德里印度理工学院）；Samsung R&D Institute India - Delhi（三星印度德里研发中心）
In the last few years, compression of deep neural networks has become an important strand of machine learning and computer vision research. Deep models require sizeable computational complexity and storage, when used for instance for Human Action Recognition (HAR) from videos, making them unsuitable to be deployed on edge devices. In this paper, we address this issue and propose a method to effectively compress Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) such as Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and Long-Short-Term-Memory Units (LSTMs) that are used for HAR. We use a Variational Information Bottleneck (VIB) t…
ExARNN: An Environment-Driven Adaptive RNN for Learning Non-Stationary Power Dynamics
Department of Electrical, Computer and Energy Engineering（电气、计算机与能源工程系）；Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
Auto-encoding Variational Bayes (AEVB) is a powerful and general algorithm for fitting latent variable models (a promising direction for unsupervised learning), and is well-known for training the Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE). In this tutorial, we focus on motivating AEVB from the classic Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, as opposed to from deterministic auto-encoders. Though natural and somewhat self-evident, the connection between EM and AEVB is not emphasized in the recent deep learning literature, and we believe that emphasizing this connection can improve the community's understan…
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications（北京邮电大学）；Florida State University（佛罗里达州立大学）；Beihang University（北京航空航天大学）；University of Illinois at Chicago（伊利诺伊大学芝加哥分校）
Learning representations for graphs plays a critical role in a wide spectrum of downstream applications. In this paper, we summarize the limitations of the prior works in three folds: representation space, modeling dynamics and modeling uncertainty. To bridge this gap, we propose to learn dynamic graph representation in hyperbolic space, for the first time, which aims to infer stochastic node representations. Working with hyperbolic space, we present a novel Hyperbolic Variational Graph Neural Network, referred to as HVGNN. In particular, to model the dynamics, we introduce a Temporal GNN (TGN…
Max Planck Institute Informatics（马克斯·普朗克信息学研究所）；Saarland Informatics Campus（萨尔兰信息学园区）；Institute of Software, University of Chinese Academy of Science（中国科学院大学软件研究所）；Saarland University（萨尔兰大学）
Variational encoder-decoders (VEDs) have shown promising results in dialogue generation. However, the latent variable distributions are usually approximated by a much simpler model than the powerful RNN structure used for encoding and decoding, yielding the KL-vanishing problem and inconsistent training objective. In this paper, we separate the training step into two phases: The first phase learns to autoencode discrete texts into continuous embeddings, from which the second phase learns to generalize latent representations by reconstructing the encoded embedding. In this case, latent variable…
KAIST（韩国科学技术院）；Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology（冲绳科学技术大学院大学）
The current paper proposes a novel variational Bayes predictive coding RNN model, which can learn to generate fluctuated temporal patterns from exemplars. The model learns to maximize the lower bound of the weighted sum of the regularization and reconstruction error terms. We examined how this weighting can affect development of different types of information processing while learning fluctuated temporal patterns. Simulation results show that strong weighting of the reconstruction term causes the development of deterministic chaos for imitating the randomness observed in target sequences, whil…
