We observe that the standard log likelihood training objective for a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model of time series data is equivalent to a variational Bayesian training objective, given the proper choice of generative and inference models. This perspective may motivate extensions to both RNNs and variational Bayesian models. We propose one such extension, where multiple particles are used for the hidden state of an RNN, allowing a natural representation of uncertainty or multimodality.
Recurrent Backpropagation and Equilibrium Propagation are supervised learning algorithms for fixed point recurrent neural networks which differ in their second phase. In the first phase, both algorithms converge to a fixed point which corresponds to the configuration where the prediction is made. In the second phase, Equilibrium Propagation relaxes to another nearby fixed point corresponding to smaller prediction error, whereas Recurrent Backpropagation uses a side network to compute error derivatives iteratively. In this work we establish a close connection between these two algorithms. We sh…
A Quantum Variational Approach to Prototypical Recurrent Unit
School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Ottawa（渥太华大学电气工程与计算机科学学院）；School of Computer Science, Carleton University（卡尔顿大学计算机科学学院）
University of Maryland Baltimore County（马里兰大学巴尔的摩县分校）
We show how to learn a neural topic model with discrete random variables---one that explicitly models each word's assigned topic---using neural variational inference that does not rely on stochastic backpropagation to handle the discrete variables. The model we utilize combines the expressive power of neural methods for representing sequences of text with the topic model's ability to capture global, thematic coherence. Using neural variational inference, we show improved perplexity and document understanding across multiple corpora. We examine the effect of prior parameters both on the model a…
University of Stuttgart（斯图加特大学）；ETAS GmbH（ETAS有限公司）
Modeling sequential data has become more and more important in practice. Some applications are autonomous driving, virtual sensors and weather forecasting. To model such systems, so called recurrent models are frequently used. In this paper we introduce several new Deep recurrent Gaussian process (DRGP) models based on the Sparse Spectrum Gaussian process (SSGP) and the improved version, called variational Sparse Spectrum Gaussian process (VSSGP). We follow the recurrent structure given by an existing DRGP based on a specific variational sparse Nyström approximation, the recurrent Gaussian pro…
Virginia Tech（弗吉尼亚理工学院）；Borealis AI；Simon Fraser University（西蒙弗雷泽大学）
Generating graph structures is a challenging problem due to the diverse representations and complex dependencies among nodes. In this paper, we introduce Graph Variational Recurrent Neural Network (GraphVRNN), a probabilistic autoregressive model for graph generation. Through modeling the latent variables of graph data, GraphVRNN can capture the joint distributions of graph structures and the underlying node attributes. We conduct experiments on the proposed GraphVRNN in both graph structure learning and attribute generation tasks. The evaluation results show that the variational component all…
Hochschule Bonn-Rhein-Sieg（波恩-莱茵-锡格应用技术大学）；Fraunhofer Center for Machine Learning and SCAI（弗劳恩霍夫机器学习中心与SCAI）
Ice accumulation in the blades of wind turbines can cause them to describe anomalous rotations or no rotations at all, thus affecting the generation of electricity and power output. In this work, we investigate the problem of ice accumulation in wind turbines by framing it as anomaly detection of multi-variate time series. Our approach focuses on two main parts: first, learning low-dimensional representations of time series using a Variational Recurrent Autoencoder (VRAE), and second, using unsupervised clustering algorithms to classify the learned representations as normal (no ice accumulated…
Data Science Institute（数据科学研究所）；Imperial College（帝国理工学院）；Institute of Security Science and Technology（安全科学与技术研究所）
Two main families of reinforcement learning algorithms, Q-learning and policy gradients, have recently been proven to be equivalent when using a softmax relaxation on one part, and an entropic regularization on the other. We relate this result to the well-known convex duality of Shannon entropy and the softmax function. Such a result is also known as the Donsker-Varadhan formula. This provides a short proof of the equivalence. We then interpret this duality further, and use ideas of convex analysis to prove a new policy inequality relative to soft Q-learning.
In this paper, we explore the inclusion of latent random variables into the dynamic hidden state of a recurrent neural network (RNN) by combining elements of the variational autoencoder. We argue that through the use of high-level latent random variables, the variational RNN (VRNN)1 can model the kind of variability observed in highly structured sequential data such as natural speech. We empirically evaluate the proposed model against related sequential models on four speech datasets and one handwriting dataset. Our results show the important roles that latent random variables can play in the …
We address the problem of graph classification based only on structural information. Inspired by natural language processing techniques (NLP), our model sequentially embeds information to estimate class membership probabilities. Besides, we experiment with NLP-like variational regularization techniques, making the model predict the next node in the sequence as it reads it. We experimentally show that our model achieves state-of-the-art classification results on several standard molecular datasets. Finally, we perform a qualitative analysis and give some insights on whether the node prediction …
Recent advances in the estimation of deep directed graphical models and recurrent networks let us contribute to the removal of a blind spot in the area of probabilistc modelling of time series. The proposed methods i) can infer distributed latent state-space trajectories with nonlinear transitions, ii) scale to large data sets thanks to the use of a stochastic objective and fast, approximate inference, iii) enable the design of rich emission models which iv) will naturally lead to structured outputs. Two different paths of introducing latent state sequences are pursued, leading to the variatio…
In this paper we propose a model that combines the strengths of RNNs and SGVB: the Variational Recurrent Auto-Encoder (VRAE). Such a model can be used for efficient, large scale unsupervised learning on time series data, mapping the time series data to a latent vector representation. The model is generative, such that data can be generated from samples of the latent space. An important contribution of this work is that the model can make use of unlabeled data in order to facilitate supervised training of RNNs by initialising the weights and network state.
Texas A&M University（德州农工大学）；The University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）
Representation learning over graph structured data has been mostly studied in static graph settings while efforts for modeling dynamic graphs are still scant. In this paper, we develop a novel hierarchical variational model that introduces additional latent random variables to jointly model the hidden states of a graph recurrent neural network (GRNN) to capture both topology and node attribute changes in dynamic graphs. We argue that the use of high-level latent random variables in this variational GRNN (VGRNN) can better capture potential variability observed in dynamic graphs as well as the …
UC Santa Barbara（加州大学圣巴巴拉分校）；Lawrence Berkeley National Lab（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）
We summarize the model and results of PirouNet, a semi-supervised recurrent variational autoencoder. Given a small amount of dance sequences labeled with qualitative choreographic annotations, PirouNet conditionally generates dance sequences in the style of the choreographer.
Variational Adaptive Noise and Dropout towards Stable Recurrent Neural Networks
National Institute of Informatics (NII)（国家信息研究所）；The Graduate University for Advanced Studies (SOKENDAI)（高级研究大学）；Department of Electronics and Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Science and Technology, Keio University（科技学部电子电气工学科，庆应大学）
This paper presents a generative approach to speech enhancement based on a recurrent variational autoencoder (RVAE). The deep generative speech model is trained using clean speech signals only, and it is combined with a nonnegative matrix factorization noise model for speech enhancement. We propose a variational expectation-maximization algorithm where the encoder of the RVAE is fine-tuned at test time, to approximate the distribution of the latent variables given the noisy speech observations. Compared with previous approaches based on feed-forward fully-connected architectures, the proposed …
Cyprus University of Technology（塞浦路斯理工大学）；University of Patras（帕特雷大学）；Rutgers University（罗格斯大学）
Memory-efficient continuous Sign Language Translation is a significant challenge for the development of assisted technologies with real-time applicability for the deaf. In this work, we introduce a paradigm of designing recurrent deep networks whereby the output of the recurrent layer is derived from appropriate arguments from nonparametric statistics. A novel variational Bayesian sequence-to-sequence network architecture is proposed that consists of a) a full Gaussian posterior distribution for data-driven memory compression and b) a nonparametric Indian Buffet Process prior for regularizatio…
It has been previously observed that training Variational Recurrent Autoencoders (VRAE) for text generation suffers from serious uninformative latent variables problem. The model would collapse into a plain language model that totally ignore the latent variables and can only generate repeating and dull samples. In this paper, we explore the reason behind this issue and propose an effective regularizer based approach to address it. The proposed method directly injects extra constraints on the posteriors of latent variables into the learning process of VRAE, which can flexibly and stably control…
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Preferred Networks；The Institute of Statistical Mathematics（统计数理研究所）
We formalize an equivalence between two popular methods for Bayesian inference: Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) and black-box variational inference (BBVI). In particular, we show that BBVI corresponds precisely to SVGD when the kernel is the neural tangent kernel. Furthermore, we interpret SVGD and BBVI as kernel gradient flows; we do this by leveraging the recent perspective that views SVGD as a gradient flow in the space of probability distributions and showing that BBVI naturally motivates a Riemannian structure on that space. We observe that kernel gradient flow also describes dy…
Texas A&M University（德州农工大学）；MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab（麻省理工学院-IBM沃森人工智能实验室）；IBM Research（IBM研究院）
We focus on the problem of streaming recommender system and explore novel collaborative filtering algorithms to handle the data dynamicity and complexity in a streaming manner. Although deep neural networks have demonstrated the effectiveness of recommendation tasks, it is lack of explorations on integrating probabilistic models and deep architectures under streaming recommendation settings. Conjoining the complementary advantages of probabilistic models and deep neural networks could enhance both model effectiveness and the understanding of inference uncertainties. To bridge the gap, in this …
Parallel Scan Recurrent Neural Quantum States for Scalable Variational Monte Carlo
Department of Physics；Astronomy, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA；Astronomy, San Jos\'e State University, San Jos\'e, California 95192, USA；Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada；Vector Institute, Toronto, Ontario, M5G 0C6, Canada
University of Leeds（利兹大学）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Fujian Normal University（福建师范大学）
One stream of reinforcement learning research is exploring biologically plausible models and algorithms to simulate biological intelligence and fit neuromorphic hardware. Among them, reward-modulated spike-timing-dependent plasticity (R-STDP) is a recent branch with good potential in energy efficiency. However, current R-STDP methods rely on heuristic designs of local learning rules, thus requiring task-specific expert knowledge. In this paper, we consider a spiking recurrent winner-take-all network, and propose a new R-STDP method, spiking variational policy gradient (SVPG), whose local learn…
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）；Texas A&M University（得克萨斯农工大学）
Botnets are increasingly used by malicious actors, creating increasing threat to a large number of internet users. To address this growing danger, we propose to study methods to detect botnets, especially those that are hard to capture with the commonly used methods, such as the signature based ones and the existing anomaly-based ones. More specifically, we propose a novel machine learning based method, named Recurrent Variational Autoencoder (RVAE), for detecting botnets through sequential characteristics of network traffic flow data including attacks by botnets. We validate robustness of our…
Electronic health records (EHR) consist of longitudinal clinical observations portrayed with sparsity, irregularity, and high-dimensionality, which become major obstacles in drawing reliable downstream clinical outcomes. Although there exist great numbers of imputation methods to tackle these issues, most of them ignore correlated features, temporal dynamics and entirely set aside the uncertainty. Since the missing value estimates involve the risk of being inaccurate, it is appropriate for the method to handle the less certain information differently than the reliable data. In that regard, we …
IBM T.J. Watson Research Center（IBM T.J.沃森研究中心）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
We propose a recurrent neural network for a "model-free" simulation of a dynamical system with unknown parameters without prior knowledge. The deep learning model aims to jointly learn the nonlinear time marching operator and the effects of the unknown parameters from a time series dataset. We assume that the time series data set consists of an ensemble of trajectories for a range of the parameters. The learning task is formulated as a statistical inference problem by considering the unknown parameters as random variables. A latent variable is introduced to model the effects of the unknown par…
KAIST（韩国科学技术院）；Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology（冲绳科学技术大学院大学）
The current paper proposes a novel variational Bayes predictive coding RNN model, which can learn to generate fluctuated temporal patterns from exemplars. The model learns to maximize the lower bound of the weighted sum of the regularization and reconstruction error terms. We examined how this weighting can affect development of different types of information processing while learning fluctuated temporal patterns. Simulation results show that strong weighting of the reconstruction term causes the development of deterministic chaos for imitating the randomness observed in target sequences, whil…
University of Florida（佛罗里达大学）；UiT - The Arctic University of Norway（挪威北极圈大学）
We propose causal recurrent variational autoencoder (CR-VAE), a novel generative model that is able to learn a Granger causal graph from a multivariate time series x and incorporates the underlying causal mechanism into its data generation process. Distinct to the classical recurrent VAEs, our CR-VAE uses a multi-head decoder, in which the $p$-th head is responsible for generating the $p$-th dimension of $\mathbf{x}$ (i.e., $\mathbf{x}^p$). By imposing a sparsity-inducing penalty on the weights (of the decoder) and encouraging specific sets of weights to be zero, our CR-VAE learns a sparse adj…
Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology（冲绳科学技术大学院大学）
In partially observable (PO) environments, deep reinforcement learning (RL) agents often suffer from unsatisfactory performance, since two problems need to be tackled together: how to extract information from the raw observations to solve the task, and how to improve the policy. In this study, we propose an RL algorithm for solving PO tasks. Our method comprises two parts: a variational recurrent model (VRM) for modeling the environment, and an RL controller that has access to both the environment and the VRM. The proposed algorithm was tested in two types of PO robotic control tasks, those in…
National Research University Higher School of Economics（国立研究大学高等经济学院）；Kaspersky Lab（卡巴斯基实验室）；Lomonosov Moscow State University（莫斯科国立大学）；Yandex
Recurrent neural networks show state-of-the-art results in many text analysis tasks but often require a lot of memory to store their weights. Recently proposed Sparse Variational Dropout eliminates the majority of the weights in a feed-forward neural network without significant loss of quality. We apply this technique to sparsify recurrent neural networks. To account for recurrent specifics we also rely on Binary Variational Dropout for RNN. We report 99.5% sparsity level on sentiment analysis task without a quality drop and up to 87% sparsity level on language modeling task with slight loss o…
Université de Nantes（南特大学）；Laboratoire des Sciences du Numérique de Nantes（南特数字科学实验室）
The need of interpreting Deep Learning (DL) models has led, during the past years, to a proliferation of works concerned by this issue. Among strategies which aim at shedding some light on how information is represented internally in DL models, one consists in extracting symbolic rule-based machines from connectionist models that are supposed to approximate well their behaviour. In order to better understand how reasonable these approximation strategies are, we need to know the computational complexity of measuring the quality of approximation. In this article, we will prove some computational…
Technical University of Denmark（丹麦技术大学）；Niras（尼拉斯公司）
In the digitization of energy systems, sensors and smart meters are increasingly being used to monitor production, operation and demand. Detection of anomalies based on smart meter data is crucial to identify potential risks and unusual events at an early stage, which can serve as a reference for timely initiation of appropriate actions and improving management. However, smart meter data from energy systems often lack labels and contain noise and various patterns without distinctively cyclical. Meanwhile, the vague definition of anomalies in different energy scenarios and highly complex tempor…
Variational autoencoders were proven successful in domains such as computer vision and speech processing. Their adoption for modeling user preferences is still unexplored, although recently it is starting to gain attention in the current literature. In this work, we propose a model which extends variational autoencoders by exploiting the rich information present in the past preference history. We introduce a recurrent version of the VAE, where instead of passing a subset of the whole history regardless of temporal dependencies, we rather pass the consumption sequence subset through a recurrent…
Technische Universität München（慕尼黑工业大学）；Leibniz Universität Hannover（莱布尼茨汉诺威大学）
Leveraging advances in variational inference, we propose to enhance recurrent neural networks with latent variables, resulting in Stochastic Recurrent Networks (STORNs). The model i) can be trained with stochastic gradient methods, ii) allows structured and multi-modal conditionals at each time step, iii) features a reliable estimator of the marginal likelihood and iv) is a generalisation of deterministic recurrent neural networks. We evaluate the method on four polyphonic musical data sets and motion capture data.
Federal University of Ceará（塞阿拉联邦大学）；University of Sheffield（谢菲尔德大学）
We define Recurrent Gaussian Processes (RGP) models, a general family of Bayesian nonparametric models with recurrent GP priors which are able to learn dynamical patterns from sequential data. Similar to Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), RGPs can have different formulations for their internal states, distinct inference methods and be extended with deep structures. In such context, we propose a novel deep RGP model whose autoregressive states are latent, thereby performing representation and dynamical learning simultaneously. To fully exploit the Bayesian nature of the RGP model we develop the …
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
We identify a new variational inference scheme for dynamical systems whose transition function is modelled by a Gaussian process. Inference in this setting has either employed computationally intensive MCMC methods, or relied on factorisations of the variational posterior. As we demonstrate in our experiments, the factorisation between latent system states and transition function can lead to a miscalibrated posterior and to learning unnecessarily large noise terms. We eliminate this factorisation by explicitly modelling the dependence between state trajectories and the Gaussian process posteri…
Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic)（阿米尔卡比尔理工大学（德黑兰理工大学））
Financial time series prediction, a growing research topic, has attracted considerable interest from scholars, and several approaches have been developed. Among them, decomposition-based methods have achieved promising results. Most decomposition-based methods approximate a single function, which is insufficient for obtaining accurate results. Moreover, most existing researches have concentrated on one-step-ahead forecasting that prevents stock market investors from arriving at the best decisions for the future. This study proposes two novel methods for multi-step-ahead stock price prediction …
MILA, Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学 MILA）；Microsoft Maluuba（微软 Maluuba）；MILA, Polytechnique Montréal（蒙特利尔理工学院 MILA）
Many efforts have been devoted to training generative latent variable models with autoregressive decoders, such as recurrent neural networks (RNN). Stochastic recurrent models have been successful in capturing the variability observed in natural sequential data such as speech. We unify successful ideas from recently proposed architectures into a stochastic recurrent model: each step in the sequence is associated with a latent variable that is used to condition the recurrent dynamics for future steps. Training is performed with amortized variational inference where the approximate posterior is …
Xidian University（西安电子科技大学）；The University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）
We develop a recurrent gamma belief network (rGBN) for radar automatic target recognition (RATR) based on high-resolution range profile (HRRP), which characterizes the temporal dependence across the range cells of HRRP. The proposed rGBN adopts a hierarchy of gamma distributions to build its temporal deep generative model. For scalable training and fast out-of-sample prediction, we propose the hybrid of a stochastic-gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and a recurrent variational inference model to perform posterior inference. To utilize the label information to extract more discriminative…
Representation learning over graph structure data has been widely studied due to its wide application prospects. However, previous methods mainly focus on static graphs while many real-world graphs evolve over time. Modeling such evolution is important for predicting properties of unseen networks. To resolve this challenge, we propose SGRNN, a novel neural architecture that applies stochastic latent variables to simultaneously capture the evolution in node attributes and topology. Specifically, deterministic states are separated from stochastic states in the iterative process to suppress mutua…
We present a novel view that unifies two frameworks that aim to solve sequential prediction problems: learning to search (L2S) and recurrent neural networks (RNN). We point out equivalences between elements of the two frameworks. By complementing what is missing from one framework comparing to the other, we introduce a more advanced imitation learning framework that, on one hand, augments L2S s notion of search space and, on the other hand, enhances RNNs training procedure to be more robust to compounding errors arising from training on highly correlated examples.
Many works have been proposed in the literature to capture the dynamics of diffusion in networks. While some of them define graphical markovian models to extract temporal relationships between node infections in networks, others consider diffusion episodes as sequences of infections via recurrent neural models. In this paper we propose a model at the crossroads of these two extremes, which embeds the history of diffusion in infected nodes as hidden continuous states. Depending on the trajectory followed by the content before reaching a given node, the distribution of influence probabilities ma…
Deep probabilistic time series forecasting models have become an integral part of machine learning. While several powerful generative models have been proposed, we provide evidence that their associated inference models are oftentimes too limited and cause the generative model to predict mode-averaged dynamics. Modeaveraging is problematic since many real-world sequences are highly multi-modal, and their averaged dynamics are unphysical (e.g., predicted taxi trajectories might run through buildings on the street map). To better capture multi-modality, we develop variational dynamic mixtures (V…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；EURECOM（欧洲通信研究院）；University of Adelaide（阿德莱德大学）
We investigate the connections between sparse approximation methods for making kernel methods and Gaussian processes (GPs) scalable to large-scale data, focusing on the Nyström method and the Sparse Variational Gaussian Processes (SVGP). While sparse approximation methods for GPs and kernel methods share some algebraic similarities, the literature lacks a deep understanding of how and why they are related. This may pose an obstacle to the communications between the GP and kernel communities, making it difficult to transfer results from one side to the other. Our motivation is to remove this ob…
MILA, Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学 MILA）；MILA, École Polytechnique de Montréal（蒙特利尔理工学院 MILA）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
We propose a novel method to directly learn a stochastic transition operator whose repeated application provides generated samples. Traditional undirected graphical models approach this problem indirectly by learning a Markov chain model whose stationary distribution obeys detailed balance with respect to a parameterized energy function. The energy function is then modified so the model and data distributions match, with no guarantee on the number of steps required for the Markov chain to converge. Moreover, the detailed balance condition is highly restrictive: energy based models correspondin…
In this work, we attempt to ameliorate the impact of data sparsity in the context of session-based recommendation. Specifically, we seek to devise a machine learning mechanism capable of extracting subtle and complex underlying temporal dynamics in the observed session data, so as to inform the recommendation algorithm. To this end, we improve upon systems that utilize deep learning techniques with recurrently connected units; we do so by adopting concepts from the field of Bayesian statistics, namely variational inference. Our proposed approach consists in treating the network recurrent units…
Texas A&M University（得克萨斯农工大学）；University of Texas at Austin（得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）
Stochastic recurrent neural networks with latent random variables of complex dependency structures have shown to be more successful in modeling sequential data than deterministic deep models. However, the majority of existing methods have limited expressive power due to the Gaussian assumption of latent variables. In this paper, we advocate learning implicit latent representations using semi-implicit variational inference to further increase model flexibility. Semi-implicit stochastic recurrent neural network(SIS-RNN) is developed to enrich inferred model posteriors that may have no analytic d…
This paper introduces the Deep Recurrent Attentive Writer (DRAW) neural network architecture for image generation. DRAW networks combine a novel spatial attention mechanism that mimics the foveation of the human eye, with a sequential variational auto-encoding framework that allows for the iterative construction of complex images. The system substantially improves on the state of the art for generative models on MNIST, and, when trained on the Street View House Numbers dataset, it generates images that cannot be distinguished from real data with the naked eye.
National Institute of Informatics（国立信息学研究所）；The Graduate University for Advanced Studies（综合研究大学院大学）
We present a method to extract a weighted finite automaton (WFA) from a recurrent neural network (RNN). Our algorithm is based on the WFA learning algorithm by Balle and Mohri, which is in turn an extension of Angluin's classic \lstar algorithm. Our technical novelty is in the use of \emph{regression} methods for the so-called equivalence queries, thus exploiting the internal state space of an RNN to prioritize counterexample candidates. This way we achieve a quantitative/weighted extension of the recent work by Weiss, Goldberg and Yahav that extracts DFAs. We experimentally evaluate the accur…
Technische Universität München（慕尼黑工业大学）；fortiss（福蒂斯研究所）
Approximate variational inference has shown to be a powerful tool for modeling unknown complex probability distributions. Recent advances in the field allow us to learn probabilistic models of sequences that actively exploit spatial and temporal structure. We apply a Stochastic Recurrent Network (STORN) to learn robot time series data. Our evaluation demonstrates that we can robustly detect anomalies both off- and on-line.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) such as Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks have become popular in a variety of applications such as image processing, data classification, speech recognition, and as controllers in autonomous systems. In practical settings, there is often a need to deploy such RNNs on resource-constrained platforms such as mobile phones or embedded devices. As the memory footprint and energy consumption of such components become a bottleneck, there is interest in compressing and optimizing such networks using a range of heuristic techniques. However, these techniques do not…
Time series forecasting based on deep architectures has been gaining popularity in recent years due to their ability to model complex non-linear temporal dynamics. The recurrent neural network is one such model capable of handling variable-length input and output. In this paper, we leverage recent advances in deep generative models and the concept of state space models to propose a stochastic adaptation of the recurrent neural network for multistep-ahead time series forecasting, which is trained with stochastic gradient variational Bayes. In our model design, the transition function of the rec…
University of Pisa（比萨大学）；University of Padova（帕多瓦大学）
Recurrent neural networks can learn complex transduction problems that require maintaining and actively exploiting a memory of their inputs. Such models traditionally consider memory and input-output functionalities indissolubly entangled. We introduce a novel recurrent architecture based on the conceptual separation between the functional input-output transformation and the memory mechanism, showing how they can be implemented through different neural components. By building on such conceptualization, we introduce the Linear Memory Network, a recurrent model comprising a feedforward neural ne…
In this paper, we use variational recurrent neural network to investigate the anomaly detection problem on graph time series. The temporal correlation is modeled by the combination of recurrent neural network (RNN) and variational inference (VI), while the spatial information is captured by the graph convolutional network. In order to incorporate external factors, we use feature extractor to augment the transition of latent variables, which can learn the influence of external factors. With the target function as accumulative ELBO, it is easy to extend this model to on-line method. The experime…
We propose a framework that directly tackles the probability distribution of the value function parameters in Deep Q Network (DQN), with powerful variational inference subroutines to approximate the posterior of the parameters. We will establish the equivalence between our proposed surrogate objective and variational inference loss. Our new algorithm achieves efficient exploration and performs well on large scale chain Markov Decision Process (MDP).
