Deep neural networks have shown promising results for various clinical prediction tasks such as diagnosis, mortality prediction, predicting duration of stay in hospital, etc. However, training deep networks -- such as those based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) -- requires large labeled data, high computational resources, and significant hyperparameter tuning effort. In this work, we investigate as to what extent can transfer learning address these issues when using deep RNNs to model multivariate clinical time series. We consider transferring the knowledge captured in an RNN trained on several source tasks simultaneously using a large labeled dataset to build the model for a target task with limited labeled data. An RNN pre-trained on several tasks provides generic features, which are then used to build simpler linear models for new target tasks without training task-specific RNNs. For evaluation, we train a deep RNN to identify several patient phenotypes on time series from MIMIC-III database, and then use the features extracted using that RNN to build classifiers for identifying previously unseen phenotypes, and also for a seemingly unrelated task of in-hospital mortality. We demonstrate that (i) models trained on features extracted using pre-trained RNN outperform or, in the worst case, perform as well as task-specific RNNs; (ii) the models using features from pre-trained models are more robust to the size of labeled data than task-specific RNNs; and (iii) features extracted using pre-trained RNN are generic enough and perform better than typical statistical hand-crafted features.
Institute for Infocomm Research（资讯通信研究院）；Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR)（新加坡科技研究局（A*STAR））
Real-world clinical time series data sets exhibit a high prevalence of missing values. Hence, there is an increasing interest in missing data imputation. Traditional statistical approaches impose constraints on the data-generating process and decouple imputation from prediction. Recent works propose recurrent neural network based approaches for missing data imputation and prediction with time series data. However, they generate deterministic outputs and neglect the inherent uncertainty. In this work, we introduce a unified Bayesian recurrent framework for simultaneous imputation and prediction…
Electronic health records (EHR) consist of longitudinal clinical observations portrayed with sparsity, irregularity, and high-dimensionality, which become major obstacles in drawing reliable downstream clinical outcomes. Although there exist great numbers of imputation methods to tackle these issues, most of them ignore correlated features, temporal dynamics and entirely set aside the uncertainty. Since the missing value estimates involve the risk of being inaccurate, it is appropriate for the method to handle the less certain information differently than the reliable data. In that regard, we …
Time series forecasting is difficult. It is difficult even for recurrent neural networks with their inherent ability to learn sequentiality. This article presents a recurrent neural network based time series forecasting framework covering feature engineering, feature importances, point and interval predictions, and forecast evaluation. The description of the method is followed by an empirical study using both LSTM and GRU networks.
Hybrid LSTM-fully convolutional networks (LSTM-FCN) for time series classification have produced state-of-the-art classification results on univariate time series. We show that replacing the LSTM with a gated recurrent unit (GRU) to create a GRU-fully convolutional network hybrid model (GRU-FCN) can offer even better performance on many time series datasets. The proposed GRU-FCN model outperforms state-of-the-art classification performance in many univariate and multivariate time series datasets. In addition, since the GRU uses a simpler architecture than the LSTM, it has fewer training parame…
The task of clustering unlabeled time series and sequences entails a particular set of challenges, namely to adequately model temporal relations and variable sequence lengths. If these challenges are not properly handled, the resulting clusters might be of suboptimal quality. As a key solution, we present a joint clustering and feature learning framework for time series based on deep learning. For a given set of time series, we train a recurrent network to represent, or embed, each time series in a vector space such that a divergence-based clustering loss function can discover the underlying c…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Mind Foundry Ltd.（思维铸造有限公司）
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are state-of-the-art in several sequential learning tasks, but they often require considerable amounts of data to generalise well. For many time series forecasting (TSF) tasks, only a few dozens of observations may be available at training time, which restricts use of this class of models. We propose a novel RNN-based model that directly addresses this problem by learning a shared feature embedding over the space of many quantised time series. We show how this enables our RNN framework to accurately and reliably forecast unseen time series, even when there is l…
Rice University（莱斯大学）；Facebook AI Research（Facebook人工智能研究院）
Kernels derived from deep neural networks (DNNs) in the infinite-width regime provide not only high performance in a range of machine learning tasks but also new theoretical insights into DNN training dynamics and generalization. In this paper, we extend the family of kernels associated with recurrent neural networks (RNNs), which were previously derived only for simple RNNs, to more complex architectures including bidirectional RNNs and RNNs with average pooling. We also develop a fast GPU implementation to exploit the full practical potential of the kernels. Though RNNs are typically only ap…
Time series are widely used as signals in many classification/regression tasks. It is ubiquitous that time series contains many missing values. Given multiple correlated time series data, how to fill in missing values and to predict their class labels? Existing imputation methods often impose strong assumptions of the underlying data generating process, such as linear dynamics in the state space. In this paper, we propose BRITS, a novel method based on recurrent neural networks for missing value imputation in time series data. Our proposed method directly learns the missing values in a bidirec…
Time Series forecasting (univariate and multivariate) is a problem of high complexity due the different patterns that have to be detected in the input, ranging from high to low frequencies ones. In this paper we propose a new model for timeseries prediction that utilizes convolutional layers for feature extraction, a recurrent encoder and a linear autoregressive component. We motivate the model and we test and compare it against a baseline of widely used existing architectures for univariate and multivariate timeseries. The proposed model appears to outperform the baselines in almost every cas…
Fourier-Enhanced Recurrent Neural Networks for Electrical Load Time Series Downscaling
Department of Statistics University of Chicago Chicago, IL, USA（统计学系 芝加哥大学）；Computer Science Division Argonne National Laboratory（计算机科学 division 阿贡国家实验室）
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin（柏林洪堡大学）；Bosch Center for AI（博世人工智能中心）
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are a popular choice for modeling sequential data. Modern RNN architectures assume constant time-intervals between observations. However, in many datasets (e.g. medical records) observation times are irregular and can carry important information. To address this challenge, we propose continuous recurrent units (CRUs) -- a neural architecture that can naturally handle irregular intervals between observations. The CRU assumes a hidden state, which evolves according to a linear stochastic differential equation and is integrated into an encoder-decoder framework. T…
ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Tri-Institutional Training Program in Computational Biology and Medicine, Weill Cornell Medical（威尔康奈尔医学院计算生物学与医学三机构联合培养项目）
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have shown remarkable success as a framework for training models to produce realistic-looking data. In this work, we propose a Recurrent GAN (RGAN) and Recurrent Conditional GAN (RCGAN) to produce realistic real-valued multi-dimensional time series, with an emphasis on their application to medical data. RGANs make use of recurrent neural networks in the generator and the discriminator. In the case of RCGANs, both of these RNNs are conditioned on auxiliary information. We demonstrate our models in a set of toy datasets, where we show visually and quantitat…
University of Minnesota, Twin Cities（明尼苏达大学双城分校）；IBM Research, T. J. Watson Research Center（IBM研究院托马斯·J·沃森研究中心）
Multivariate time-series modeling and forecasting is an important problem with numerous applications. Traditional approaches such as VAR (vector auto-regressive) models and more recent approaches such as RNNs (recurrent neural networks) are indispensable tools in modeling time-series data. In many multivariate time series modeling problems, there is usually a significant linear dependency component, for which VARs are suitable, and a nonlinear component, for which RNNs are suitable. Modeling such times series with only VAR or only RNNs can lead to poor predictive performance or complex models …
Long-term prediction of multivariate time series is still an important but challenging problem. The key to solve this problem is to capture the spatial correlations at the same time, the spatio-temporal relationships at different times and the long-term dependence of the temporal relationships between different series. Attention-based recurrent neural networks (RNN) can effectively represent the dynamic spatio-temporal relationships between exogenous series and target series, but it only performs well in one-step time prediction and short-term time prediction. In this paper, inspired by human …
Recent research demonstrate that prediction of time series by recurrent neural networks (RNNs) based on the noisy input generates a smooth anticipated trajectory. We examine the internal dynamics of RNNs and establish a set of conditions required for such behavior. Based on this analysis we propose a new approximate algorithm and show that it significantly speeds up the predictive process without loss of accuracy.
Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance（牛津-曼氏定量金融学研究所）
Despite the recent popularity of deep generative state space models, few comparisons have been made between network architectures and the inference steps of the Bayesian filtering framework -- with most models simultaneously approximating both state transition and update steps with a single recurrent neural network (RNN). In this paper, we introduce the Recurrent Neural Filter (RNF), a novel recurrent autoencoder architecture that learns distinct representations for each Bayesian filtering step, captured by a series of encoders and decoders. Testing this on three real-world time series dataset…
University of California, San Diego（加州大学圣迭戈分校）；NEC Laboratories America, Inc.（NEC美国实验室公司）
The Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) model, which predicts the current value of a time series based upon its previous values as well as the current and past values of multiple driving (exogenous) series, has been studied for decades. Despite the fact that various NARX models have been developed, few of them can capture the long-term temporal dependencies appropriately and select the relevant driving series to make predictions. In this paper, we propose a dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network (DA-RNN) to address these two issues. In the first stage, we introduce an input …
In this work, we investigate unsupervised representation learning on medical time series, which bears the promise of leveraging copious amounts of existing unlabeled data in order to eventually assist clinical decision making. By evaluating on the prediction of clinically relevant outcomes, we show that in a practical setting, unsupervised representation learning can offer clear performance benefits over end-to-end supervised architectures. We experiment with using sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) models in two different ways, as an autoencoder and as a forecaster, and show that the best perform…
Beyond Random Missingness: Clinically Rethinking for Healthcare Time Series Imputation
King’s College London（伦敦国王学院）；PyPOTS Research（PyPOTS研究中心）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）
Dalian University of Technology（大连理工大学）；Shenyang Blower Works Group Corporation（沈阳鼓风机集团股份有限公司）
The demand of probabilistic time series forecasting has been recently raised in various dynamic system scenarios, for example, system identification and prognostic and health management of machines. To this end, we combine the advances in both deep generative models and state space model (SSM) to come up with a novel, data-driven deep probabilistic sequence model. Specifically, we follow the popular encoder-decoder generative structure to build the recurrent neural networks (RNN) assisted variational sequence model on an augmented recurrent input space, which could induce rich stochastic seque…
Kyushu University（九州大学）；Ibaraki University（茨城大学）；Yokohama National University（横滨国立大学）；Hiroshima University（广岛大学）
This paper proposes a probabilistic neural network developed on the basis of time-series discriminant component analysis (TSDCA) that can be used to classify high-dimensional time-series patterns. TSDCA involves the compression of high-dimensional time series into a lower-dimensional space using a set of orthogonal transformations and the calculation of posterior probabilities based on a continuous-density hidden Markov model with a Gaussian mixture model expressed in the reduced-dimensional space. The analysis can be incorporated into a neural network, which is named a time-series discriminan…
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；New York University（纽约大学）
Multivariate time series data in practical applications, such as health care, geoscience, and biology, are characterized by a variety of missing values. In time series prediction and other related tasks, it has been noted that missing values and their missing patterns are often correlated with the target labels, a.k.a., informative missingness. There is very limited work on exploiting the missing patterns for effective imputation and improving prediction performance. In this paper, we develop novel deep learning models, namely GRU-D, as one of the early attempts. GRU-D is based on Gated Recurr…
Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science University of Michigan（密歇根大学电气工程与计算机科学系）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）
Recently, researchers have started applying convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with one-dimensional convolutions to clinical tasks involving time-series data. This is due, in part, to their computational efficiency, relative to recurrent neural networks and their ability to efficiently exploit certain temporal invariances, (e.g., phase invariance). However, it is well-established that clinical data may exhibit many other types of invariances (e.g., scaling). While preprocessing techniques, (e.g., dynamic time warping) may successfully transform and align inputs, their use often requires one …
North Carolina State University（北卡罗来纳州立大学）；Intuit Inc.（财捷公司）
Robust anomaly detection is a requirement for monitoring complex modern systems with applications such as cyber-security, fraud prevention, and maintenance. These systems generate multiple correlated time series that are highly seasonal and noisy. This paper presents a novel unsupervised deep learning architecture for multivariate time series anomaly detection, called Robust Seasonal Multivariate Generative Adversarial Network (RSM-GAN). It extends recent advancements in GANs with adoption of convolutional-LSTM layers and an attention mechanism to produce state-of-the-art performance. We condu…
Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）；IBM Almaden Research Center（IBM阿尔马登研究中心）；Lawrence Livermore National Labs（劳伦斯利弗莫尔国家实验室）
With widespread adoption of electronic health records, there is an increased emphasis for predictive models that can effectively deal with clinical time-series data. Powered by Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architectures with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) units, deep neural networks have achieved state-of-the-art results in several clinical prediction tasks. Despite the success of RNNs, its sequential nature prohibits parallelized computing, thus making it inefficient particularly when processing long sequences. Recently, architectures which are based solely on attention mechanisms have shown…
There are time series that are amenable to recurrent neural network (RNN) solutions when treated as sequences, but some series, e.g. asynchronous time series, provide a richer variation of feature types than current RNN cells take into account. In order to address such situations, we introduce a unified RNN that handles five different feature types, each in a different manner. Our RNN framework separates sequential features into two groups dependent on their frequency, which we call sparse and dense features, and which affect cell updates differently. Further, we also incorporate time features…
Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Tencent AI Lab（腾讯人工智能实验室）；Tencent（腾讯）
Time series prediction has been studied in a variety of domains. However, it is still challenging to predict future series given historical observations and past exogenous data. Existing methods either fail to consider the interactions among different components of exogenous variables which may affect the prediction accuracy, or cannot model the correlations between exogenous data and target data. Besides, the inherent temporal dynamics of exogenous data are also related to the target series prediction, and thus should be considered as well. To address these issues, we propose an end-to-end de…
UNSW（新南威尔士大学）；University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学）；Griffith University（格里菲斯大学）
Modeling complex spatial and temporal correlations in the correlated time series data is indispensable for understanding the traffic dynamics and predicting the future status of an evolving traffic system. Recent works focus on designing complicated graph neural network architectures to capture shared patterns with the help of pre-defined graphs. In this paper, we argue that learning node-specific patterns is essential for traffic forecasting while the pre-defined graph is avoidable. To this end, we propose two adaptive modules for enhancing Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) with new capabilit…
USC Information Sciences Institute（南加州大学信息科学研究所）；YerevaNN（耶烈万神经网络实验室）；Yerevan State University（埃里温国立大学）
Health care is one of the most exciting frontiers in data mining and machine learning. Successful adoption of electronic health records (EHRs) created an explosion in digital clinical data available for analysis, but progress in machine learning for healthcare research has been difficult to measure because of the absence of publicly available benchmark data sets. To address this problem, we propose four clinical prediction benchmarks using data derived from the publicly available Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-III) database. These tasks cover a range of clinical problems in…
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) have become competitive forecasting methods, as most notably shown in the winning method of the recent M4 competition. However, established statistical models such as ETS and ARIMA gain their popularity not only from their high accuracy, but they are also suitable for non-expert users as they are robust, efficient, and automatic. In these areas, RNNs have still a long way to go. We present an extensive empirical study and an open-source software framework of existing RNN architectures for forecasting, that allow us to develop guidelines and best practices for th…
Time series modeling has entered an era of unprecedented growth in the size and complexity of data which require new modeling approaches. While many new general purpose machine learning approaches have emerged, they remain poorly understand and irreconcilable with more traditional statistical modeling approaches. We present a general class of exponential smoothed recurrent neural networks (RNNs) which are well suited to modeling non-stationary dynamical systems arising in industrial applications. In particular, we analyze their capacity to characterize the non-linear partial autocorrelation st…
College of Information and Computer Sciences（信息与计算机科学学院）；University of Massachusetts Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校）
Intensive Care Unit Electronic Health Records (ICU EHRs) store multimodal data about patients including clinical notes, sparse and irregularly sampled physiological time series, lab results, and more. To date, most methods designed to learn predictive models from ICU EHR data have focused on a single modality. In this paper, we leverage the recently proposed interpolation-prediction deep learning architecture(Shukla and Marlin 2019) as a basis for exploring how physiological time series data and clinical notes can be integrated into a unified mortality prediction model. We study both early and…
With the advent of Big Data, nowadays in many applications databases containing large quantities of similar time series are available. Forecasting time series in these domains with traditional univariate forecasting procedures leaves great potentials for producing accurate forecasts untapped. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs), and in particular Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, have proven recently that they are able to outperform state-of-the-art univariate time series forecasting methods in this context when trained across all available time series. However, if the time series database …
Surrogate testing techniques have been used widely to investigate the presence of dynamical nonlinearities, an essential ingredient of deterministic chaotic processes. Traditional surrogate testing subscribes to statistical hypothesis testing and investigates potential differences in discriminant statistics between the given empirical sample and its surrogate counterparts. The choice and estimation of the discriminant statistics can be challenging across short time series. Also, conclusion based on a single empirical sample is an inherent limitation. The present study proposes a recurrent neur…
Traditional Recurrent Neural Networks assume vectorized data as inputs. However many data from modern science and technology come in certain structures such as tensorial time series data. To apply the recurrent neural networks for this type of data, a vectorisation process is necessary, while such a vectorisation leads to the loss of the precise information of the spatial or longitudinal dimensions. In addition, such a vectorized data is not an optimum solution for learning the representation of the longitudinal data. In this paper, we propose a new variant of tensorial neural networks which d…
University of Minnesota（明尼苏达大学）；Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）
Monitoring patients in ICU is a challenging and high-cost task. Hence, predicting the condition of patients during their ICU stay can help provide better acute care and plan the hospital's resources. There has been continuous progress in machine learning research for ICU management, and most of this work has focused on using time series signals recorded by ICU instruments. In our work, we show that adding clinical notes as another modality improves the performance of the model for three benchmark tasks: in-hospital mortality prediction, modeling decompensation, and length of stay forecasting t…
University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；Michigan Medicine（密歇根医学中心）
In healthcare, patient risk stratification models are often learned using time-series data extracted from electronic health records. When extracting data for a clinical prediction task, several formulations exist, depending on how one chooses the time of prediction and the prediction horizon. In this paper, we show how the formulation can greatly impact both model performance and clinical utility. Leveraging a publicly available ICU dataset, we consider two clinical prediction tasks: in-hospital mortality, and hypokalemia. Through these case studies, we demonstrate the necessity of evaluating …
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Nokia Bell Labs（诺基亚贝尔实验室）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Nokia Digital Health - Withings（诺基亚数字健康-Withings）
We analyse multimodal time-series data corresponding to weight, sleep and steps measurements. We focus on predicting whether a user will successfully achieve his/her weight objective. For this, we design several deep long short-term memory (LSTM) architectures, including a novel cross-modal LSTM (X-LSTM), and demonstrate their superiority over baseline approaches. The X-LSTM improves parameter efficiency by processing each modality separately and allowing for information flow between them by way of recurrent cross-connections. We present a general hyperparameter optimisation technique for X-LS…
Linear Dynamical System (LDS) is an elegant mathematical framework for modeling and learning multivariate time series. However, in general, it is difficult to set the dimension of its hidden state space. A small number of hidden states may not be able to model the complexities of a time series, while a large number of hidden states can lead to overfitting. In this paper, we study methods that impose an $\ell_1$ regularization on the transition matrix of an LDS model to alleviate the problem of choosing the optimal number of hidden states. We incorporate a generalized gradient descent method in…
MIT（麻省理工学院）；Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center（贝斯以色列女执事医疗中心）
Determining whether hypotensive patients in intensive care units (ICUs) should receive fluid bolus therapy (FBT) has been an extremely challenging task for intensive care physicians as the corresponding increase in blood pressure has been hard to predict. Our study utilized regression models and attention-based recurrent neural network (RNN) algorithms and a multi-clinical information system large-scale database to build models that can predict the successful response to FBT among hypotensive patients in ICUs. We investigated both time-aggregated modeling using logistic regression algorithms w…
Prefectural University of Hiroshima（广岛县立大学）；Hiroshima City University（广岛市立大学）
Deep Learning has the hierarchical network architecture to represent the complicated features of input patterns. Such architecture is well known to represent higher learning capability compared with some conventional models if the best set of parameters in the optimal network structure is found. We have been developing the adaptive learning method that can discover the optimal network structure in Deep Belief Network (DBN). The learning method can construct the network structure with the optimal number of hidden neurons in each Restricted Boltzmann Machine and with the optimal number of layers…
We present ARU, an Adaptive Recurrent Unit for streaming adaptation of deep globally trained time-series forecasting models. The ARU combines the advantages of learning complex data transformations across multiple time series from deep global models, with per-series localization offered by closed-form linear models. Unlike existing methods of adaptation that are either memory-intensive or non-responsive after training, ARUs require only fixed sized state and adapt to streaming data via an easy RNN-like update operation. The core principle driving ARU is simple --- maintain sufficient statistic…
Trajectory Flow Matching with Applications to Clinical Time Series Modeling
McGill University（麦吉尔大学）；Mila - Quebec AI Institute（米拉-魁北克人工智能研究所）；Yale School of Medicine（耶鲁医学院）；School of Clinical Medicine, University of Cambridge（剑桥大学临床医学院）；Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学）；CIFAR（加拿大高级研究院）
Probabilistic forecasting, i.e. estimating the probability distribution of a time series' future given its past, is a key enabler for optimizing business processes. In retail businesses, for example, forecasting demand is crucial for having the right inventory available at the right time at the right place. In this paper we propose DeepAR, a methodology for producing accurate probabilistic forecasts, based on training an auto regressive recurrent network model on a large number of related time series. We demonstrate how by applying deep learning techniques to forecasting, one can overcome many…
University of California, San Diego（加利福尼亚大学圣迭戈分校）；USC Information Sciences Institute（南加州大学信息科学研究所）；Children’s Hospital LA（洛杉矶儿童医院）
We demonstrate a simple strategy to cope with missing data in sequential inputs, addressing the task of multilabel classification of diagnoses given clinical time series. Collected from the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) at Children's Hospital Los Angeles, our data consists of multivariate time series of observations. The measurements are irregularly spaced, leading to missingness patterns in temporally discretized sequences. While these artifacts are typically handled by imputation, we achieve superior predictive performance by treating the artifacts as features. Unlike linear models, r…
Inferring causal relationships in observational time series data is an important task when interventions cannot be performed. Granger causality is a popular framework to infer potential causal mechanisms between different time series. The original definition of Granger causality is restricted to linear processes and leads to spurious conclusions in the presence of a latent confounder. In this work, we harness the expressive power of recurrent neural networks and propose a deep learning-based approach to model non-linear Granger causality by directly accounting for latent confounders. Our appro…
Granger causality is a widely-used criterion for analyzing interactions in large-scale networks. As most physical interactions are inherently nonlinear, we consider the problem of inferring the existence of pairwise Granger causality between nonlinearly interacting stochastic processes from their time series measurements. Our proposed approach relies on modeling the embedded nonlinearities in the measurements using a component-wise time series prediction model based on Statistical Recurrent Units (SRUs). We make a case that the network topology of Granger causal relations is directly inferrabl…
Hidden Markov Chains (HMC) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) are two well known tools for predicting time series. Even though these solutions were developed independently in distinct communities, they share some similarities when considered as probabilistic structures. So in this paper we first consider HMC and RNN as generative models, and we embed both structures in a common generative unified model (GUM). We next address a comparative study of the expressivity of these models. To that end we assume that the models are furthermore linear and Gaussian. The probability distributions produced…
Bayesian Optimization algorithm has become a promising approach for nonlinear global optimization problems and many machine learning applications. Over the past few years, improvements and enhancements have been brought forward and they have shown some promising results in solving the complex dynamic problems, systems of ordinary differential equations where the objective functions are computationally expensive to evaluate. Besides, the straightforward implementation of the Bayesian Optimization algorithm performs well merely for optimization problems with 10-20 dimensions. The study presented…
Reliable estimates of typical travel times allow road users to forward plan journeys to minimise travel time, potentially increasing overall system efficiency. On busy highways, however, congestion events can cause large, short-term spikes in travel time. These spikes make direct forecasting of travel time using standard time series models difficult on the timescales of hours to days that are relevant to forward planning. The problem is that some such spikes are caused by unpredictable incidents and should be filtered out, whereas others are caused by recurrent peaks in demand and should be fa…
UC San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；USC（南加州大学）；Children’s Hospital LA（洛杉矶儿童医院）
We present a novel application of LSTM recurrent neural networks to multilabel classification of diagnoses given variable-length time series of clinical measurements. Our method outperforms a strong baseline on a variety of metrics.
Electronic Medical Records (EMR) are a rich source of patient information, including measurements reflecting physiologic signs and administered therapies. Identifying which variables are useful in predicting clinical outcomes can be challenging. Advanced algorithms such as deep neural networks were designed to process high-dimensional inputs containing variables in their measured form, thus bypass separate feature selection or engineering steps. We investigated the effect of extraneous input variables on the predictive performance of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) by including in the input ve…
Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；Emory University School of Medicine（埃默里大学医学院）；Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta（亚特兰大儿童医疗保健机构）
With the improvement of medical data capturing, vast amount of continuous patient monitoring data, e.g., electrocardiogram (ECG), real-time vital signs and medications, become available for clinical decision support at intensive care units (ICUs). However, it becomes increasingly challenging to model such data, due to high density of the monitoring data, heterogeneous data types and the requirement for interpretable models. Integration of these high-density monitoring data with the discrete clinical events (including diagnosis, medications, labs) is challenging but potentially rewarding since …
Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；Sutter Health（萨特医疗系统）
Leveraging large historical data in electronic health record (EHR), we developed Doctor AI, a generic predictive model that covers observed medical conditions and medication uses. Doctor AI is a temporal model using recurrent neural networks (RNN) and was developed and applied to longitudinal time stamped EHR data from 260K patients over 8 years. Encounter records (e.g. diagnosis codes, medication codes or procedure codes) were input to RNN to predict (all) the diagnosis and medication categories for a subsequent visit. Doctor AI assesses the history of patients to make multilabel predictions …
Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；Emory University School of Medicine（埃默里大学医学院）；University of California San Diego Health（加州大学圣地亚哥分校健康中心）
Sepsis, a dysregulated immune system response to infection, is among the leading causes of morbidity, mortality, and cost overruns in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Early prediction of sepsis can improve situational awareness amongst clinicians and facilitate timely, protective interventions. While the application of predictive analytics in ICU patients has shown early promising results, much of the work has been encumbered by high false-alarm rates. Efforts to improve specificity have been limited by several factors, most notably the difficulty of labeling sepsis onset time and the low preval…
In this work, we propose a multi-task recurrent neural network with attention mechanism for predicting cardiovascular events from electronic health records (EHRs) at different time horizons. The proposed approach is compared to a standard clinical risk predictor (QRISK) and machine learning alternatives using 5-year data from a NHS Foundation Trust. The proposed model outperforms standard clinical risk scores in predicting stroke (AUC=0.85) and myocardial infarction (AUC=0.89), considering the largest time horizon. Benefit of using an \gls{mt} setting becomes visible for very short time horizo…
