arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2002.08720math.OCcs.MAcs.SYeess.SY
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具有光伏系统和蓄能系统的住宅单元聚集的随机决策模型

Stochastic Decision-Making Model for Aggregation of Residential Units with PV-Systems and Storages

Hossein Khazaei, Ramin Moslemi, Ratnesh Sharma

摘要:

许多住宅能源消费者已经安装了光伏(PV)面板和储能系统。这些住宅用户可以聚集并参与能源市场。本文提出了一个随机决策模型,这些住宅单位的聚合参与两个结算市场。使用季节性自回归综合移动平均(SARIMA)模型和预测误差的联合概率分布函数来模拟实时价格、光伏发电量和需求的不确定性。本文提出的情景生成模型将预测误差视为随机变量,它允许将实时市场中观察到的新信息反映到情景生成过程中,而无需重新训练SARIMA或重新拟合预测误差的概率分布函数。这种方法显着提高了所提出的模型的计算时间。最后,以6户住宅为例进行了模拟研究,结果显示了住宅组合的优势以及所提出的随机决策模型。

英文摘要:

Many residential energy consumers have installed photovoltaic (PV) panels and energy storage systems. These residential users can aggregate and participate in the energy markets. A stochastic decision making model for an aggregation of these residential units for participation in two-settlement markets is proposed in this paper. Scenarios are generated using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model and joint probability distribution function of the forecast errors to model the uncertainties of the real-time prices, PV generations and demands. The proposed scenario generation model of this paper treats forecast errors as random variable, which allows to reflect new information observed in the real-time market into scenario generation process without retraining SARIMA or re-fitting probability distribution functions over the forecast errors. This approach significantly improves the computational time of the proposed model. A simulation study is conducted for an aggregation of 6 residential units, and the results highlights the benefits of aggregation as well as the proposed stochastic decision-making model.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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