Implicit stochastic models, where the data-generation distribution is intractable but sampling is possible, are ubiquitous in the natural sciences. The models typically have free parameters that need to be inferred from data collected in scientific experiments. A fundamental question is how to design the experiments so that the collected data are most useful. The field of Bayesian experimental design advocates that, ideally, we should choose designs that maximise the mutual information (MI) between the data and the parameters. For implicit models, however, this approach is severely hampered by the high computational cost of computing posteriors and maximising MI, in particular when we have more than a handful of design variables to optimise. In this paper, we propose a new approach to Bayesian experimental design for implicit models that leverages recent advances in neural MI estimation to deal with these issues. We show that training a neural network to maximise a lower bound on MI allows us to jointly determine the optimal design and the posterior. Simulation studies illustrate that this gracefully extends Bayesian experimental design for implicit models to higher design dimensions.
University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；Queensland University of Technology（昆士兰科技大学）
Bayesian experimental design (BED) is a framework that uses statistical models and decision making under uncertainty to optimise the cost and performance of a scientific experiment. Sequential BED, as opposed to static BED, considers the scenario where we can sequentially update our beliefs about the model parameters through data gathered in the experiment. A class of models of particular interest for the natural and medical sciences are implicit models, where the data generating distribution is intractable, but sampling from it is possible. Even though there has been a lot of work on static B…
Bayesian experimental design involves the optimal allocation of resources in an experiment, with the aim of optimising cost and performance. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling from the model is possible, this task is particularly difficult and therefore largely unexplored. This is mainly due to technical difficulties associated with approximating posterior distributions and utility functions. We devise a novel experimental design framework for implicit models that improves upon previous work in two ways. First, we use the mutual information between parameters…
We propose Bayesian extensions of two nonparametric regression methods which are kernel and mutual $k$-nearest neighbor regression methods. Derived based on Gaussian process models for regression, the extensions provide distributions for target value estimates and the framework to select the hyperparameters. It is shown that both the proposed methods asymptotically converge to kernel and mutual $k$-nearest neighbor regression methods, respectively. The simulation results show that the proposed methods can select proper hyperparameters and are better than or comparable to the former methods for…
The $k$-nearest neighbor classification method ($k$-NNC) is one of the simplest nonparametric classification methods. The mutual $k$-NN classification method (M$k$NNC) is a variant of $k$-NNC based on mutual neighborship. We propose another variant of $k$-NNC, the symmetric $k$-NN classification method (S$k$NNC) based on both mutual neighborship and one-sided neighborship. The performance of M$k$NNC and S$k$NNC depends on the parameter $k$ as the one of $k$-NNC does. We propose the ways how M$k$NN and S$k$NN classification can be performed based on Bayesian mutual and symmetric $k$-NN regressi…
This work explores non-negative low-rank matrix factorization based on regularized Poisson models (PF or "Poisson factorization" for short) for recommender systems with implicit-feedback data. The properties of Poisson likelihood allow a shortcut for very fast computations over zero-valued inputs, and oftentimes results in very sparse factors for both users and items. Compared to HPF (a popular Bayesian formulation of the problem with hierarchical priors), the frequentist optimization-based approach presented here tends to produce better top-N recommendations with significantly shorter fitting…
Department of Computational Neuroscience, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg University（汉堡大学附属埃彭多夫医学中心计算神经科学系，汉堡大学）
The use of mutual information as a similarity measure in agglomerative hierarchical clustering (AHC) raises an important issue: some correction needs to be applied for the dimensionality of variables. In this work, we formulate the decision of merging dependent multivariate normal variables in an AHC procedure as a Bayesian model comparison. We found that the Bayesian formulation naturally shrinks the empirical covariance matrix towards a matrix set a priori (e.g., the identity), provides an automated stopping rule, and corrects for dimensionality using a term that scales up the measure as a f…
Bayesian experimental design (BED) is to answer the question that how to choose designs that maximize the information gathering. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling is possible, conventional BED methods have difficulties in efficiently estimating the posterior distribution and maximizing the mutual information (MI) between data and parameters. Recent work proposed the use of gradient ascent to maximize a lower bound on MI to deal with these issues. However, the approach requires a sampling path to compute the pathwise gradient of the MI lower bound with respec…
Bayesian experimental design (BED) aims at designing an experiment to maximize the information gathering from the collected data. The optimal design is usually achieved by maximizing the mutual information (MI) between the data and the model parameters. When the analytical expression of the MI is unavailable, e.g., having implicit models with intractable data distributions, a neural network-based lower bound of the MI was recently proposed and a gradient ascent method was used to maximize the lower bound. However, the approach in Kleinegesse et al., 2020 requires a pathwise sampling path to co…
Bayesian interpretations of neural network have a long history, dating back to early work in the 1990's and have recently regained attention because of their desirable properties like uncertainty estimation, model robustness and regularisation. We want to discuss here the application of Bayesian models to knowledge sharing between neural networks. Knowledge sharing comes in different facets, such as transfer learning, model distillation and shared embeddings. All of these tasks have in common that learned "features" ought to be shared across different networks. Theoretically rooted in the conc…
This article presents a Bayesian inferential method where the likelihood for a model is unknown but where data can easily be simulated from the model. We discretize simulated (continuous) data to estimate the implicit likelihood in a Bayesian analysis employing a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Three examples are presented as well as a small study on some of the method's properties.
The problem of testing mutually exclusive hypotheses with dependent test statistics is considered. Bayesian and frequentist approaches to multiplicity control are studied and compared to help gain understanding as to the effect of test statistic dependence on each approach. The Bayesian approach is shown to have excellent frequentist properties and is argued to be the most effective way of obtaining frequentist multiplicity control, without sacrificing power, when there is considerable test statistic dependence.
Complex simulators have become a ubiquitous tool in many scientific disciplines, providing high-fidelity, implicit probabilistic models of natural and social phenomena. Unfortunately, they typically lack the tractability required for conventional statistical analysis. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has emerged as a key method in simulation-based inference, wherein the true model likelihood and posterior are approximated using samples from the simulator. In this paper, we draw connections between ABC and generalized Bayesian inference (GBI). First, we re-interpret the accept/reject step…
Automated extraction of mutual independence patterns using Bayesian comparison of partition models
Sorbonne Université（索邦大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；INSERM（法国国家健康与医学研究院）；Centre de recherches et d’études en sciences des interactions (CRÉSI) — Center for Interaction Science (CIS)（互动科学研究中心（CRÉSI / CIS））
This paper aims at assessing the power system reliability by estimating loss of load (LOL) index using mutual information based Bayesian approach. Reliability analysis is a key component in the design, analysis and tuning of complex structure like electrical power system. Consideration is given to rare events while constructing the Bayesian network, which provides reliable estimates of probability distribution function of LOL with lesser computing effort. Also, the ranking of load components due to loss of load is evaluated. The RBTS and IEEE RTS-24 systems are used as test cases.
University of South Carolina（南卡罗来纳大学）；Xi’an University of Technology（西安理工大学）
Since the cost of installing and maintaining sensors is usually high, sensor locations are always strategically selected. For those aiming at inferring certain quantities of interest (QoI), it is desirable to explore the dependency between sensor measurements and QoI. One of the most popular metric for the dependency is mutual information which naturally measures how much information about one variable can be obtained given the other. However, computing mutual information is always challenging, and the result is unreliable in high dimension. In this paper, we propose an approach to find an app…
Hidden Markov models can describe time series arising in various fields of science, by treating the data as noisy measurements of an arbitrarily complex Markov process. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have become standard tools to estimate the hidden Markov process given the observations and a fixed parameter value. We review some of the recent developments allowing the inclusion of parameter uncertainty as well as model uncertainty. The shortcomings of the currently available methodology are emphasised from an algorithmic complexity perspective. The statistical objects of interest for ti…
We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than Variational Inference, and it does not rely on adversarial training (or density ratio estimation). We adopt the recent approach of constructing two models: (1) a primary model, tasked with performing regression or classification; and (2) a secondary, expressive (e.g. implicit) model that defines an approximate posterior distribution over the parameters of the p…
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Microsoft Research Cambridge（微软研究院剑桥分院）
We introduce the implicit processes (IPs), a stochastic process that places implicitly defined multivariate distributions over any finite collections of random variables. IPs are therefore highly flexible implicit priors over functions, with examples including data simulators, Bayesian neural networks and non-linear transformations of stochastic processes. A novel and efficient approximate inference algorithm for IPs, namely the variational implicit processes (VIPs), is derived using generalised wake-sleep updates. This method returns simple update equations and allows scalable hyper-parameter…
We show how to extract the implicit copula of a response vector from a Bayesian regularized regression smoother with Gaussian disturbances. The copula can be used to compare smoothers that employ different shrinkage priors and function bases. We illustrate with three popular choices of shrinkage priors --- a pairwise prior, the horseshoe prior and a g prior augmented with a point mass as employed for Bayesian variable selection --- and both univariate and multivariate function bases. The implicit copulas are high-dimensional, have flexible dependence structures that are far from that of a Gaus…
Item recommendation is the task of predicting a personalized ranking on a set of items (e.g. websites, movies, products). In this paper, we investigate the most common scenario with implicit feedback (e.g. clicks, purchases). There are many methods for item recommendation from implicit feedback like matrix factorization (MF) or adaptive knearest-neighbor (kNN). Even though these methods are designed for the item prediction task of personalized ranking, none of them is directly optimized for ranking. In this paper we present a generic optimization criterion BPR-Opt for personalized ranking that…
In many real-world problems, we want to infer some property of an expensive black-box function $f$, given a budget of $T$ function evaluations. One example is budget constrained global optimization of $f$, for which Bayesian optimization is a popular method. Other properties of interest include local optima, level sets, integrals, or graph-structured information induced by $f$. Often, we can find an algorithm $\mathcal{A}$ to compute the desired property, but it may require far more than $T$ queries to execute. Given such an $\mathcal{A}$, and a prior distribution over $f$, we refer to the pro…
Institute of Mathematical Sciences (ICMAT-CSIC)（数学科学研究所（ICMAT-CSIC））；Escuela Politécnica Superior, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid（马德里自治大学高等理工学院）；Institute of Corpuscular Physics, University of Valencia and CSIC（瓦伦西亚大学与西班牙国家研究委员会粒子物理研究所）
Model selection in machine learning (ML) is a crucial part of the Bayesian learning procedure. Model choice may impose strong biases on the resulting predictions, which can hinder the performance of methods such as Bayesian neural networks and neural samplers. On the other hand, newly proposed approaches for Bayesian ML exploit features of approximate inference in function space with implicit stochastic processes (a generalization of Gaussian processes). The approach of Sparse Implicit Processes (SIP) is particularly successful in this regard, since it is fully trainable and achieves flexible …
University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）；Baidu Talent Intelligence Center, Baidu Inc.（百度人才智能中心（百度公司））；Business Intelligence Lab, Baidu Research（百度研究院商业智能实验室）
The recent development of online recommender systems has a focus on collaborative ranking from implicit feedback, such as user clicks and purchases. Different from explicit ratings, which reflect graded user preferences, the implicit feedback only generates positive and unobserved labels. While considerable efforts have been made in this direction, the well-known pairwise and listwise approaches have still been limited by various challenges. Specifically, for the pairwise approaches, the assumption of independent pairwise preference is not always held in practice. Also, the listwise approaches…
Optimal Bayesian feature filtering (OBF) is a supervised screening method designed for biomarker discovery. In this article, we prove two major theoretical properties of OBF. First, optimal Bayesian feature selection under a general family of Bayesian models reduces to filtering if and only if the underlying Bayesian model assumes all features are mutually independent. Therefore, OBF is optimal if and only if one assumes all features are mutually independent, and OBF is the only filter method that is optimal under at least one model in the general Bayesian framework. Second, OBF under independ…
Clicking data, which exists in abundance and contains objective user preference information, is widely used to produce personalized recommendations in web-based applications. Current popular recommendation algorithms, typically based on matrix factorizations, often have high accuracy and achieve good clickthrough rates. However, diversity of the recommended items, which can greatly enhance user experiences, is often overlooked. Moreover, most algorithms do not produce interpretable uncertainty quantifications of the recommendations. In this work, we propose the Bayesian Mallows for Clicking Da…
University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；University of California, Davis（加州大学戴维斯分校）
We apply the technique of implicit differentiation to boost performance, reduce numerical error, and remove required user-tuning in the Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) algorithm for hierarchical Bayesian inference. We demonstrate these improvements on three representative inference problems: 1) an extended Neal's funnel 2) Bayesian neural networks, and 3) probabilistic principal component analysis. On our particular test cases, MUSE with implicit differentiation is faster than Hamiltonian Monte Carlo by factors of 155, 397, and 5, respectively, or factors of 65, 278, and 1 without imp…
Texas A&M University（得克萨斯农工大学）；The University of Texas at Austin（得克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）
In this work, we propose learnable Bernoulli dropout (LBD), a new model-agnostic dropout scheme that considers the dropout rates as parameters jointly optimized with other model parameters. By probabilistic modeling of Bernoulli dropout, our method enables more robust prediction and uncertainty quantification in deep models. Especially, when combined with variational auto-encoders (VAEs), LBD enables flexible semi-implicit posterior representations, leading to new semi-implicit VAE~(SIVAE) models. We solve the optimization for training with respect to the dropout parameters using Augment-REINF…
Iowa State University（爱荷华州立大学）；Department of Computer Science（计算机科学系）
We use the implicitization procedure to generate polynomial equality constraints on the set of distributions induced by local interventions on variables governed by a causal Bayesian network with hidden variables. We show how we may reduce the complexity of the implicitization problem and make the problem tractable in certain causal Bayesian networks. We also show some preliminary results on the algebraic structure of polynomial constraints. The results have applications in distinguishing between causal models and in testing causal models with combined observational and experimental data.
University of Sydney（悉尼大学）；University of New South Wales（新南威尔士大学）
We formalize the problem of learning interdomain correspondences in the absence of paired data as Bayesian inference in a latent variable model (LVM), where one seeks the underlying hidden representations of entities from one domain as entities from the other domain. First, we introduce implicit latent variable models, where the prior over hidden representations can be specified flexibly as an implicit distribution. Next, we develop a new variational inference (VI) algorithm for this model based on minimization of the symmetric Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between a variational joint and t…
Bayesian optimal sensor placement, in its full generality, seeks to maximize the mutual information between uncertain model parameters and the predicted data to be collected from the sensors for the purpose of performing Bayesian inference. Equivalently, the expected information entropy of the posterior of the model parameters is minimized over all possible sensor configurations for a given sensor budget. In the context of structural dynamical systems, this minimization is computationally expensive because of the large number of possible sensor configurations. Here, a very efficient convex rel…
How can we efficiently gather information to optimize an unknown function, when presented with multiple, mutually dependent information sources with different costs? For example, when optimizing a robotic system, intelligently trading off computer simulations and real robot testings can lead to significant savings. Existing methods, such as multi-fidelity GP-UCB or Entropy Search-based approaches, either make simplistic assumptions on the interaction among different fidelities or use simple heuristics that lack theoretical guarantees. In this paper, we study multi-fidelity Bayesian optimizatio…
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；MIT（麻省理工学院）
Although the existing max-value entropy search (MES) is based on the widely celebrated notion of mutual information, its empirical performance can suffer due to two misconceptions whose implications on the exploration-exploitation trade-off are investigated in this paper. These issues are essential in the development of future acquisition functions and the improvement of the existing ones as they encourage an accurate measure of the mutual information such as the rectified MES (RMES) acquisition function we develop in this work. Unlike the evaluation of MES, we derive a closed-form probability…
Bayesian optimization has recently emerged as a popular method for the sample-efficient optimization of expensive black-box functions. However, the application to high-dimensional problems with several thousand observations remains challenging, and on difficult problems Bayesian optimization is often not competitive with other paradigms. In this paper we take the view that this is due to the implicit homogeneity of the global probabilistic models and an overemphasized exploration that results from global acquisition. This motivates the design of a local probabilistic approach for global optimi…
To address three important issues involved in latent variable models (LVMs), including capturing infrequent patterns, achieving small-sized but expressive models and alleviating overfitting, several studies have been devoted to "diversifying" LVMs, which aim at encouraging the components in LVMs to be diverse. Most existing studies fall into a frequentist-style regularization framework, where the components are learned via point estimation. In this paper, we investigate how to "diversify" LVMs in the paradigm of Bayesian learning. We propose two approaches that have complementary advantages. O…
Representation learning systems typically rely on massive amounts of labeled data in order to be trained to high accuracy. Recently, high-dimensional parametric models like neural networks have succeeded in building rich representations using either compressive, reconstructive or supervised criteria. However, the semantic structure inherent in observations is oftentimes lost in the process. Human perception excels at understanding semantics but cannot always be expressed in terms of labels. Thus, \emph{oracles} or \emph{human-in-the-loop systems}, for example crowdsourcing, are often employed …
Aalto University（阿尔托大学）；University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学）
We introduce implicit Bayesian neural networks, a simple and scalable approach for uncertainty representation in deep learning. Standard Bayesian approach to deep learning requires the impractical inference of the posterior distribution over millions of parameters. Instead, we propose to induce a distribution that captures the uncertainty over neural networks by augmenting each layer's inputs with latent variables. We present appropriate input distributions and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in terms of calibration, robustness and uncertainty characterisation over large-scale, multi-…
Determining the strength of non-linear statistical dependencies between two variables is a crucial matter in many research fields. The established measure for quantifying such relations is the mutual information. However, estimating mutual information from limited samples is a challenging task. Since the mutual information is the difference of two entropies, the existing Bayesian estimators of entropy may be used to estimate information. This procedure, however, is still biased in the severely under-sampled regime. Here we propose an alternative estimator that is applicable to those cases in w…
Meta learning aims at learning a model that can quickly adapt to unseen tasks. Widely used meta learning methods include model agnostic meta learning (MAML), implicit MAML, Bayesian MAML. Thanks to its ability of modeling uncertainty, Bayesian MAML often has advantageous empirical performance. However, the theoretical understanding of Bayesian MAML is still limited, especially on questions such as if and when Bayesian MAML has provably better performance than MAML. In this paper, we aim to provide theoretical justifications for Bayesian MAML's advantageous performance by comparing the meta tes…
The mutual information of two random variables i and j with joint probabilities t_ij is commonly used in learning Bayesian nets as well as in many other fields. The chances t_ij are usually estimated by the empirical sampling frequency n_ij/n leading to a point estimate I(n_ij/n) for the mutual information. To answer questions like "is I(n_ij/n) consistent with zero?" or "what is the probability that the true mutual information is much larger than the point estimate?" one has to go beyond the point estimate. In the Bayesian framework one can answer these questions by utilizing a (second order)…
Generalization is essential for deep learning. In contrast to previous works claiming that Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have an implicit regularization implemented by the stochastic gradient descent, we demonstrate explicitly Bayesian regularizations in a specific category of DNNs, i.e., Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). First, we introduce a novel probabilistic representation for the hidden layers of CNNs and demonstrate that CNNs correspond to Bayesian networks with the serial connection. Furthermore, we show that the hidden layers close to the input formulate prior distributions, thus CN…
Aalto University（阿尔托大学）；University of Helsinki（赫尔辛基大学）；University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学）
Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) promise improved generalization under covariate shift by providing principled probabilistic representations of epistemic uncertainty. However, weight-based BNNs often struggle with high computational complexity of large-scale architectures and datasets. Node-based BNNs have recently been introduced as scalable alternatives, which induce epistemic uncertainty by multiplying each hidden node with latent random variables, while learning a point-estimate of the weights. In this paper, we interpret these latent noise variables as implicit representations of simple an…
Chalmers University of Technology（查尔姆斯理工大学）；University of Oslo（奥斯陆大学）
Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) offers a decision-theoretic solution for reinforcement learning. While "model-based" BRL algorithms have focused either on maintaining a posterior distribution on models or value functions and combining this with approximate dynamic programming or tree search, previous Bayesian "model-free" value function distribution approaches implicitly make strong assumptions or approximations. We describe a novel Bayesian framework, Inferential Induction, for correctly inferring value function distributions from data, which leads to the development of a new class of B…
We apply both distance-based (Jin and Matteson, 2017) and kernel-based (Pfister et al., 2016) mutual dependence measures to independent component analysis (ICA), and generalize dCovICA (Matteson and Tsay, 2017) to MDMICA, minimizing empirical dependence measures as an objective function in both deflation and parallel manners. Solving this minimization problem, we introduce Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) (McKay et al., 2000), and a global optimization method, Bayesian optimization (BO) (Mockus, 1994) to improve the initialization of the Newton-type local optimization method. The performance of …
