Bayesian experimental design (BED) is a framework that uses statistical models and decision making under uncertainty to optimise the cost and performance of a scientific experiment. Sequential BED, as opposed to static BED, considers the scenario where we can sequentially update our beliefs about the model parameters through data gathered in the experiment. A class of models of particular interest for the natural and medical sciences are implicit models, where the data generating distribution is intractable, but sampling from it is possible. Even though there has been a lot of work on static BED for implicit models in the past few years, the notoriously difficult problem of sequential BED for implicit models has barely been touched upon. We address this gap in the literature by devising a novel sequential design framework for parameter estimation that uses the Mutual Information (MI) between model parameters and simulated data as a utility function to find optimal experimental designs, which has not been done before for implicit models. Our approach uses likelihood-free inference by ratio estimation to simultaneously estimate posterior distributions and the MI. During the sequential BED procedure we utilise Bayesian optimisation to help us optimise the MI utility. We find that our framework is efficient for the various implicit models tested, yielding accurate parameter estimates after only a few iterations.
School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学信息学院）
Implicit stochastic models, where the data-generation distribution is intractable but sampling is possible, are ubiquitous in the natural sciences. The models typically have free parameters that need to be inferred from data collected in scientific experiments. A fundamental question is how to design the experiments so that the collected data are most useful. The field of Bayesian experimental design advocates that, ideally, we should choose designs that maximise the mutual information (MI) between the data and the parameters. For implicit models, however, this approach is severely hampered by…
Computer simulators can be computationally intensive to run over a large number of input values, as required for optimization and various uncertainty quantification tasks. The standard paradigm for the design and analysis of computer experiments is to employ Gaussian random fields to model computer simulators. Gaussian process models are trained on input-output data obtained from simulation runs at various input values. Following this approach, we propose a sequential design algorithm, MICE (Mutual Information for Computer Experiments), that adaptively selects the input values at which to run …
Hidden Markov models can describe time series arising in various fields of science, by treating the data as noisy measurements of an arbitrarily complex Markov process. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have become standard tools to estimate the hidden Markov process given the observations and a fixed parameter value. We review some of the recent developments allowing the inclusion of parameter uncertainty as well as model uncertainty. The shortcomings of the currently available methodology are emphasised from an algorithmic complexity perspective. The statistical objects of interest for ti…
Bayesian experimental design involves the optimal allocation of resources in an experiment, with the aim of optimising cost and performance. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling from the model is possible, this task is particularly difficult and therefore largely unexplored. This is mainly due to technical difficulties associated with approximating posterior distributions and utility functions. We devise a novel experimental design framework for implicit models that improves upon previous work in two ways. First, we use the mutual information between parameters…
CMLA, UMR CNRS 8536, ENS Cachan（卡尚高等师范学校 CMLA，法国国家科学研究中心 UMR 8536）；LPMA, Université Paris Diderot（巴黎狄德罗大学 LPMA）
In this paper, we analyze a generic algorithm scheme for sequential global optimization using Gaussian processes. The upper bounds we derive on the cumulative regret for this generic algorithm improve by an exponential factor the previously known bounds for algorithms like GP-UCB. We also introduce the novel Gaussian Process Mutual Information algorithm (GP-MI), which significantly improves further these upper bounds for the cumulative regret. We confirm the efficiency of this algorithm on synthetic and real tasks against the natural competitor, GP-UCB, and also the Expected Improvement heuris…
Bayesian experimental design (BED) is to answer the question that how to choose designs that maximize the information gathering. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling is possible, conventional BED methods have difficulties in efficiently estimating the posterior distribution and maximizing the mutual information (MI) between data and parameters. Recent work proposed the use of gradient ascent to maximize a lower bound on MI to deal with these issues. However, the approach requires a sampling path to compute the pathwise gradient of the MI lower bound with respec…
Bayesian experimental design (BED) aims at designing an experiment to maximize the information gathering from the collected data. The optimal design is usually achieved by maximizing the mutual information (MI) between the data and the model parameters. When the analytical expression of the MI is unavailable, e.g., having implicit models with intractable data distributions, a neural network-based lower bound of the MI was recently proposed and a gradient ascent method was used to maximize the lower bound. However, the approach in Kleinegesse et al., 2020 requires a pathwise sampling path to co…
Cooperation is often implicitly assumed when learning from other agents. Cooperation implies that the agent selecting the data, and the agent learning from the data, have the same goal, that the learner infer the intended hypothesis. Recent models in human and machine learning have demonstrated the possibility of cooperation. We seek foundational theoretical results for cooperative inference by Bayesian agents through sequential data. We develop novel approaches analyzing consistency, rate of convergence and stability of Sequential Cooperative Bayesian Inference (SCBI). Our analysis of the eff…
We introduce a framework for Bayesian experimental design (BED) with implicit models, where the data-generating distribution is intractable but sampling from it is still possible. In order to find optimal experimental designs for such models, our approach maximises mutual information lower bounds that are parametrised by neural networks. By training a neural network on sampled data, we simultaneously update network parameters and designs using stochastic gradient-ascent. The framework enables experimental design with a variety of prominent lower bounds and can be applied to a wide range of sci…
State University of New York at Buffalo（纽约州立大学布法罗分校）；University of California, Irvine（加州大学欧文分校）
Current state-of-the-art nonparametric Bayesian text clustering methods model documents through multinomial distribution on bags of words. Although these methods can effectively utilize the word burstiness representation of documents and achieve decent performance, they do not explore the sequential information of text and relationships among synonyms. In this paper, the documents are modeled as the joint of bags of words, sequential features and word embeddings. We proposed Sequential Embedding induced Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (SiDPMM) to effectively exploit this joint document represe…
University at Buffalo（布法罗大学）；Microsoft Research（微软研究院）
Deep latent variable models (LVM) such as variational auto-encoder (VAE) have recently played an important role in text generation. One key factor is the exploitation of smooth latent structures to guide the generation. However, the representation power of VAEs is limited due to two reasons: (1) the Gaussian assumption is often made on the variational posteriors; and meanwhile (2) a notorious "posterior collapse" issue occurs. In this paper, we advocate sample-based representations of variational distributions for natural language, leading to implicit latent features, which can provide flexibl…
Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；Duke University（杜克大学）
We present a new CUSUM procedure for sequentially detecting change-point in the self and mutual exciting processes, a.k.a. Hawkes networks using discrete events data. Hawkes networks have become a popular model for statistics and machine learning due to their capability in modeling irregularly observed data where the timing between events carries a lot of information. The problem of detecting abrupt changes in Hawkes networks arises from various applications, including neuronal imaging, sensor network, and social network monitoring. Despite this, there has not been a computationally and memory…
Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology（斯科尔科沃科学技术研究院）；Los Alamos National Laboratory（洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室）；University Grenoble-Alpes（格勒诺布尔-阿尔卑斯大学）
In this paper, we propose a robust sequential learning strategy for training large-scale Recommender Systems (RS) over implicit feedback mainly in the form of clicks. Our approach relies on the minimization of a pairwise ranking loss over blocks of consecutive items constituted by a sequence of non-clicked items followed by a clicked one for each user. Parameter updates are discarded if for a given user the number of sequential blocks is below or above some given thresholds estimated over the distribution of the number of blocks in the training set. This is to prevent from an abnormal number o…
The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳））；University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）
There are two types of deep generative models: explicit and implicit. The former defines an explicit density form that allows likelihood inference; while the latter targets a flexible transformation from random noise to generated samples. While the two classes of generative models have shown great power in many applications, both of them, when used alone, suffer from respective limitations and drawbacks. To take full advantages of both models and enable mutual compensation, we propose a novel joint training framework that bridges an explicit (unnormalized) density estimator and an implicit sam…
Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa（里斯本大学高等理工学院）
Feature selection methods are usually evaluated by wrapping specific classifiers and datasets in the evaluation process, resulting very often in unfair comparisons between methods. In this work, we develop a theoretical framework that allows obtaining the true feature ordering of two-dimensional sequential forward feature selection methods based on mutual information, which is independent of entropy or mutual information estimation methods, classifiers, or datasets, and leads to an undoubtful comparison of the methods. Moreover, the theoretical framework unveils problems intrinsic to some meth…
The University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；MILA；Beijing Institute of Big Data Research（北京大数据研究院）
We consider the fundamental problem of how to automatically construct summary statistics for implicit generative models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable, but sampling data from the model is possible. The idea is to frame the task of constructing sufficient statistics as learning mutual information maximizing representations of the data with the help of deep neural networks. The infomax learning procedure does not need to estimate any density or density ratio. We apply our approach to both traditional approximate Bayesian computation and recent neural likelihood me…
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are powerful and effective for processing sequential data. However, RNNs are usually considered "black box" models whose internal structure and learned parameters are not interpretable. In this paper, we propose an interpretable RNN based on the sequential iterative soft-thresholding algorithm (SISTA) for solving the sequential sparse recovery problem, which models a sequence of correlated observations with a sequence of sparse latent vectors. The architecture of the resulting SISTA-RNN is implicitly defined by the computational structure of SISTA, which result…
University of Electronic Science and Technology of China（电子科技大学）；Peng Cheng Laboratory（鹏城实验室）；University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）；Harbin Institute of Technology（哈尔滨工业大学）
Mutual Information (MI) plays an important role in representation learning. However, MI is unfortunately intractable in continuous and high-dimensional settings. Recent advances establish tractable and scalable MI estimators to discover useful representation. However, most of the existing methods are not capable of providing an accurate estimation of MI with low-variance when the MI is large. We argue that directly estimating the gradients of MI is more appealing for representation learning than estimating MI in itself. To this end, we propose the Mutual Information Gradient Estimator (MIGE) f…
Efficient modeling of relational data arising in physical, social, and information sciences is challenging due to complicated dependencies within the data. In this work, we build off of semi-implicit graph variational auto-encoders to capture higher-order statistics in a low-dimensional graph latent representation. We incorporate hyperbolic geometry in the latent space through a Poincare embedding to efficiently represent graphs exhibiting hierarchical structure. To address the naive posterior latent distribution assumptions in classical variational inference, we use semi-implicit hierarchical…
We demonstrate that a popular class of nonparametric mutual information (MI) estimators based on k-nearest-neighbor graphs requires number of samples that scales exponentially with the true MI. Consequently, accurate estimation of MI between two strongly dependent variables is possible only for prohibitively large sample size. This important yet overlooked shortcoming of the existing estimators is due to their implicit reliance on local uniformity of the underlying joint distribution. We introduce a new estimator that is robust to local non-uniformity, works well with limited data, and is able…
University of Seoul（首尔大学）；Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)（韩国科学技术院）
\textit{Attention} computes the dependency between representations, and it encourages the model to focus on the important selective features. Attention-based models, such as Transformer and graph attention network (GAT), are widely utilized for sequential data and graph-structured data. This paper suggests a new interpretation and generalized structure of the attention in Transformer and GAT. For the attention in Transformer and GAT, we derive that the attention is a product of two parts: 1) the RBF kernel to measure the similarity of two instances and 2) the exponential of $L^{2}$ norm to com…
Mila（米拉研究所）；DIRO（蒙特利尔大学计算机与运筹学系）；Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学）；INRIA（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；École Normale Supérieure（巴黎高等师范学院）；PSL Research University（巴黎文理研究大学）
When optimizing over-parameterized models, such as deep neural networks, a large set of parameters can achieve zero training error. In such cases, the choice of the optimization algorithm and its respective hyper-parameters introduces biases that will lead to convergence to specific minimizers of the objective. Consequently, this choice can be considered as an implicit regularization for the training of over-parametrized models. In this work, we push this idea further by studying the discrete gradient dynamics of the training of a two-layer linear network with the least-squares loss. Using a t…
London School of Economics（伦敦政治经济学院）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Google（谷歌）；ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）
We introduce COT-GAN, an adversarial algorithm to train implicit generative models optimized for producing sequential data. The loss function of this algorithm is formulated using ideas from Causal Optimal Transport (COT), which combines classic optimal transport methods with an additional temporal causality constraint. Remarkably, we find that this causality condition provides a natural framework to parameterize the cost function that is learned by the discriminator as a robust (worst-case) distance, and an ideal mechanism for learning time dependent data distributions. Following Genevay et a…
