Several network growth models have been proposed in the literature that attempt to incorporate properties of citation networks. Generally, these models aim at retaining the degree distribution observed in real-world networks. In this work, we explore whether existing network growth models can realize the diversity in citation growth exhibited by individual papers - a new node-centric property observed recently in citation networks across multiple domains of research. We theoretically and empirically show that the network growth models which are solely based on degree and/or intrinsic fitness cannot realize certain temporal growth behaviors that are observed in real-world citation networks. To this end, we propose two new growth models that localize the influence of papers through an appropriate attachment mechanism. Experimental results on the real-world citation networks of Computer Science and Physics domains show that our proposed models can better explain the temporal behavior of citation networks than existing models.
The study of citation networks is of interest to the scientific community. However, the underlying mechanism driving individual citation behavior remains imperfectly understood, despite the recent proliferation of quantitative research methods. Traditional network models normally use graph theory to consider articles as nodes and citations as pairwise relationships between them. In this paper, we propose an alternative evolutionary model based on hypergraph theory in which one hyperedge can have an arbitrary number of nodes, combined with an aging effect to reflect the temporal dynamics of sci…
Nobel Prizes are commonly seen to be among the most prestigious achievements of our times. Based on mining several million citations, we quantitatively analyze the processes driving paradigm shifts in science. We find that groundbreaking discoveries of Nobel Prize Laureates and other famous scientists are not only acknowledged by many citations of their landmark papers. Surprisingly, they also boost the citation rates of their previous publications. Given that innovations must outcompete the rich-gets-richer effect for scientific citations, it turns out that they can make their way only throug…
A large number of published studies have examined the properties of either networks of citation among scientific papers or networks of coauthorship among scientists. Here, using an extensive data set covering more than a century of physics papers published in the Physical Review, we study a hybrid coauthorship/citation network that combines the two, which we analyze to gain insight into the correlations and interactions between authorship and citation. Among other things, we investigate the extent to which individuals tend to cite themselves or their collaborators more than others, the extent …
The lack of predictability of citation-based measures frequently used to gauge impact, from impact factors to short-term citations, raises a fundamental question: Is there long-term predictability in citation patterns? Here, we derive a mechanistic model for the citation dynamics of individual papers, allowing us to collapse the citation histories of papers from different journals and disciplines into a single curve, indicating that all papers tend to follow the same universal temporal pattern. The observed patterns not only help us uncover basic mechanisms that govern scientific impact but al…
Scientists are embedded in social and information networks that influence and are influenced by the quality of their scientific work, its impact, and the recognition they receive. Here we quantify the systematic relationship between a scientist's position in the network of scientific collaborations and the citations they receive. As expected, we find that authors closer to others in this network are, on average, more highly cited than those further away from others. We construct a novel indicator, the s-index, that explicitly captures performance linked to network position along two compliment…
Citation based measures are widely used as quantitative proxies for subjective factors such as the importance of a paper or even the worth of individual researchers. Here we analyze the citation histories of $4669$ papers published in journals of the American Physical Society between $1960$ and $1968$ and argue that state-of-the-art models of citation dynamics and algorithms for forecasting nonstationary time series are very likely to fail to predict the long-term ($50$ years after publication) citation counts of highly-cited papers using citation data collected in a short period (say, $10$ ye…
Certain areas of scientific research flourish while others lose advocates and attention. We are interested in whether structural patterns within citation networks correspond to the growth or decline of the research areas to which those networks belong. We focus on three topic areas within optical physics as a set of cases; those areas have developed along different trajectories: one continues to expand rapidly; another is on the wane after an earlier peak; the final area has re-emerged after a short waning period. These three areas have substantial overlaps in the types of equipment they use a…
Memes are the cultural equivalent of genes that spread across human culture by means of imitation. What makes a meme and what distinguishes it from other forms of information, however, is still poorly understood. Our analysis of memes in the scientific literature reveals that they are governed by a surprisingly simple relationship between frequency of occurrence and the degree to which they propagate along the citation graph. We propose a simple formalization of this pattern and we validate it with data from close to 50 million publication records from the Web of Science, PubMed Central, and t…
The goal of our research is to understand how ideas propagate, combine and are created in large social networks. In this work, we look at a sample of relevant scientific publications in the area of high-frequency analog circuit design and their citation distribution. A novel aspect of our work is the way in which we categorize citations based on the reason and place of it in a publication. We created seven citation categories from general domain references, references to specific methods used in the same domain problem, references to an analysis method, references for experimental comparison a…
We analyze the time evolution of citations acquired by articles from journals of the American Physical Society (PRA, PRB, PRC, PRD, PRE and PRL). The observed change over time in the number of papers published in each journal is considered an exogenously caused variation in citability that is accounted for by a normalization. The appropriately inflation-adjusted citation rates are found to be separable into a preferential-attachment-type growth kernel and a purely obsolescence-related (i.e., monotonously decreasing as a function of time since publication) aging function. Variations in the empi…
Citation impact is commonly assessed using direct, first-order citation relations. We consider here instead the indirect influence of publications on new publications via citations. We present a novel method to quantify the higher-order citation influence of publications, considering both direct, or first-order, and indirect, or higher-order citations. In particular, we are interested in higher-order citation influence at the level of disciplines. We apply this method to the whole Web of Science data at the level of disciplines. We find that a significant amount of influence -- 42% -- stems fr…
We analyze the online response to the preprint publication of a cohort of 4,606 scientific articles submitted to the preprint database arXiv.org between October 2010 and May 2011. We study three forms of responses to these preprints: downloads on the arXiv.org site, mentions on the social media site Twitter, and early citations in the scholarly record. We perform two analyses. First, we analyze the delay and time span of article downloads and Twitter mentions following submission, to understand the temporal configuration of these reactions and whether one precedes or follows the other. Second,…
Progress in science has advanced the development of human society across history, with dramatic revolutions shaped by information theory, genetic cloning, and artificial intelligence, among the many scientific achievements produced in the 20th century. However, the way that science advances itself is much less well-understood. In this work, we study the evolution of scientific development over the past century by presenting an anatomy of 89 million digitalized papers published between 1900 and 2015. We find that science has benefited from the shift from individual work to collaborative effort,…
Citation analysis, as a tool for quantitative studies of science, has long emphasized direct citation relations, leaving indirect or high order citations overlooked. However, a series of early and recent studies demonstrate the existence of indirect and continuous citation impact across generations. Adding to the literature on high order citations, we introduce the concept of a citation cascade: the constitution of a series of subsequent citing events initiated by a certain publication. We investigate this citation structure by analyzing more than 450,000 articles and over 6 million citation r…
Structural inequalities persist in society, conferring systematic advantages to some people at the expense of others, for example, by giving them substantially more influence and opportunities. Using bibliometric data about authors of scientific publications, we identify two types of structural inequalities in scientific citations. First, female authors, who represent a minority of researchers, receive less recognition for their work (through citations) relative to male authors; second, authors affiliated with top-ranked institutions, who are also a minority, receive substantially more recogni…
Mathematical models of the scientific citation process predict a strong "first-mover" effect under which the first papers in a field will, essentially regardless of content, receive citations at a rate enormously higher than papers published later. Moreover papers are expected to retain this advantage in perpetuity -- they should receive more citations indefinitely, no matter how many other papers are published after them. We test this conjecture against data from a selection of fields and in several cases find a first-mover effect of a magnitude similar to that predicted by the theory. Were w…
Understanding the nature and organization of scientific communities is of broad interest. The `Invisible College' is a historical metaphor for one such type of community and the search for such `colleges' can be framed as the detection and analysis of small groups of scientists working on problems of common interests. Case studies have previously been conducted on individual communities with respect to their scientific and social behavior. In this study, we introduce, a new and scalable community finding approach. Supplemented by expert assessment, we use the convergence of two different clust…
Using bibliometric data artificially generated through a model of citation dynamics calibrated on empirical data, we compare several indicators for the scientific impact of individual researchers. The use of such a controlled setup has the advantage of avoiding the biases present in real databases, and allows us to assess which aspects of the model dynamics and which traits of individual researchers a particular indicator actually reflects. We find that the simple citation average performs well in capturing the intrinsic scientific ability of researchers, whatever the length of their career. O…
Scientific impact plays a central role in the evaluation of the output of scholars, departments, and institutions. A widely used measure of scientific impact is citations, with a growing body of literature focused on predicting the number of citations obtained by any given publication. The effectiveness of such predictions, however, is fundamentally limited by the power-law distribution of citations, whereby publications with few citations are extremely common and publications with many citations are relatively rare. Given this limitation, in this work we instead address a related question ask…
Clustering methods are applied regularly in the bibliometric literature to identify research areas or scientific fields. These methods are for instance used to group publications into clusters based on their relations in a citation network. In the network science literature, many clustering methods, often referred to as graph partitioning or community detection techniques, have been developed. Focusing on the problem of clustering the publications in a citation network, we present a systematic comparison of the performance of a large number of these clustering methods. Using a number of differ…
Evaluating the performance of researchers and measuring the impact of papers written by scientists is the main objective of citation analysis. Various indices and metrics have been proposed for this. In this paper, we propose a new citation index CITEX, which gives normalized scores to authors and papers to determine their rankings. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first citation index which simultaneously assigns scores to both authors and papers. Using these scores, we can get an objective measure of the reputation of an author and the impact of a paper. We model this problem as an …
Identifying important scholarly literature at an early stage is vital to the academic research community and other stakeholders such as technology companies and government bodies. Due to the sheer amount of research published and the growth of ever-changing interdisciplinary areas, researchers need an efficient way to identify important scholarly work. The number of citations a given research publication has accrued has been used for this purpose, but these take time to occur and longer to accumulate. In this article, we use altmetrics to predict the short-term and long-term citations that a s…
Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University G.C（计算机科学与工程学院，沙希德·贝赫什蒂大学（总校区））
With the growing number of published scientific papers world-wide, the need to evaluation and quality assessment methods for research papers is increasing. Scientific fields such as scientometrics, informetrics and bibliometrics establish quantified analysis methods and measurements for scientific papers. In this area, an important problem is to predict the future influence of a published paper. Particularly, early discrimination between influential papers and insignificant papers may find important applications. In this regard, one of the most important metrics is the number of citations to t…
