We consider a generic class of chance-constrained optimization problems with heavy-tailed (i.e., power-law type) risk factors. In this setting, we use the scenario approach to obtain a constant approximation to the optimal solution with a computational complexity that is uniform in the risk tolerance parameter. We additionally illustrate the efficiency of our algorithm in the context of solvency in insurance networks.
In this paper, we develop a chance-constrained decentralized electric vehicle (EV) charging control framework to achieve "valley-filling" meanwhile meeting individual charging requirements and satisfying distribution network constraints. The control design is formulated as an optimization problem with a stochastic non-separable objective function and globally coupled chance constraints. We propose a novel chance-constrained shrunken-primal-dual subgradient (CC-SPDS) algorithm to support the chance-constrained decentralized control scheme and verify its efficacy and convergence with a represent…
Many engineered systems, such as energy and transportation infrastructures, are networks governed by non-linear physical laws. A primary challenge for operators of these networks is to achieve optimal utilization while maintaining safety and feasibility, especially in the face of uncertainty regarding the system model. To address this problem, we formulate a Chance Constrained Optimal Physical Network Flow (CC-OPNF) problem that attempts to optimize the system while satisfying safety limits with a high probability. However, the non-linear equality constraints representing the network physics i…
We provide an exact deterministic reformulation for data-driven chance constrained programs over Wasserstein balls. For individual chance constraints as well as joint chance constraints with right-hand side uncertainty, our reformulation amounts to a mixed-integer conic program. In the special case of a Wasserstein ball with the $1$-norm or the $\infty$-norm, the cone is the nonnegative orthant, and the chance constrained program can be reformulated as a mixed-integer linear program. Our reformulation compares favourably to several state-of-the-art data-driven optimization schemes in our numer…
A method is developed to numerically solve chance constrained optimal control problems. The chance constraints are reformulated as nonlinear constraints that retain the probability properties of the original constraint. The reformulation transforms the chance constrained optimal control problem into a deterministic optimal control problem that can be solved numerically. The new method developed in this paper approximates the chance constraints using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and kernel density estimators whose kernels have integral functions that bound the indicator function. Th…
Chance constraints are a valuable tool for the design of safe decisions in uncertain environments; they are used to model satisfaction of a constraint with a target probability. However, because of possible non-convexity and non-smoothness, optimizing over a chance constrained set is challenging. In this paper, we establish an exact reformulation of chance constrained problems as a bilevel problems with convex lower-levels. We then derive a tractable penalty approach, where the penalized objective is a difference-of-convex function that we minimize with a suitable bundle algorithm. We release …
We propose a safe approximation to joint chance-constrained programming where the constraint functions are additively dependent on a normally-distributed random vector. The approximation is analytical, meaning that it requires neither numerical integrations nor sampling-based probability approximations. Under mild assumptions, the approximation is a standard nonlinear program. We compare this new safe approximation to another analytical safe approximation for joint chance-constrained programming based on Boole's inequality through two examples representing the constrained control of linear Gau…
We consider chance-constrained binary programs, where each row of the inequalities that involve uncertainty needs to be satisfied probabilistically. Only the information of the mean and covariance matrix is available, and we solve distributionally robust chance-constrained binary programs (DCBP). Using two different ambiguity sets, we equivalently reformulate the DCBPs as 0-1 second-order cone (SOC) programs. We further exploit the submodularity of 0-1 SOC constraints under special and general covariance matrices, and utilize the submodularity as well as lifting to derive extended polymatroid …
Uncertainties from deepening penetration of renewable energy resources have posed critical challenges to the secure and reliable operations of future electric grids. Among various approaches for decision making in uncertain environments, this paper focuses on chance-constrained optimization, which provides explicit probabilistic guarantees on the feasibility of optimal solutions. Although quite a few methods have been proposed to solve chance-constrained optimization problems, there is a lack of comprehensive review and comparative analysis of the proposed methods. Part I of this two-part pape…
This paper aims to provide a Dynamic Programming (DP) approach to solve the Mission-Wide Chance-Constrained Optimal Control Problems (MWCC-OCP). The mission-wide chance constraint guarantees that the probability that the entire state trajectory lies within a constraint/safe region is higher than a prescribed level, and is different from the stage-wise chance constraints imposed at individual time steps. The control objective is to find an optimal policy sequence that achieves both (i) satisfaction of a mission-wide chance constraint, and (ii) minimization of a cost function. By transforming th…
In recent years, there has been a huge trend to penetrate renewable energy sources into energy networks. However, these sources introduce uncertain power generation depending on environmental conditions. Therefore, finding 'optimal' and 'feasible' operation strategies is still a big challenge for network operators and thus, an appropriate optimization approach is of utmost importance. In this paper, we formulate the optimal power flow (OPF) with uncertainties as a chance constrained optimization problem. Since uncertainties in the network are usually 'non-Gaussian' distributed random variables…
A warm start method is developed for efficiently solving complex chance constrained optimal control problems. The warm start method addresses the computational challenges of solving chance constrained optimal control problems using biased kernel density estimators and Legendre-Gauss-Radau collocation with an $hp$ adaptive mesh refinement method. To address the computational challenges, the warm start method improves both the starting point for the chance constrained optimal control problem, as well as the efficiency of cycling through mesh refinement iterations. The improvement is accomplished…
In this paper, we propose a robust optimization-based heuristic algorithm for the chance-constrained binary knapsack problem (CKP). We assume that the weights of items are independent normally distributed. By utilizing the properties of the submodular function, the proposed method approximates the CKP to the robust knapsack problem with a cardinality constrained uncertainty set parameterized by a uncertainty budget parameter. The proposed approach obtains a heuristic solution by solving the approximated robust knapsack problem whose optimal solution can be obtained by solving the ordinary bina…
We investigate constrained optimal control problems for linear stochastic dynamical systems evolving in discrete time. We consider minimization of an expected value cost over a finite horizon. Hard constraints are introduced first, and then reformulated in terms of probabilistic constraints. It is shown that, for a suitable parametrization of the control policy, a wide class of the resulting optimization problems are convex, or admit reasonable convex approximations.
In this paper, we study unit commitment (UC) problems considering the uncertainty of load and wind power generation. UC problem is formulated as a chance-constrained two-stage stochastic programming problem where the chance constraint is used to restrict the probability of load imbalance. In addition to the conventional mixed integer linear programming formulation using Big-M, we present the bilinear mixed integer formulation of chance constraint, and then derive its linear counterpart using McCormick linearization method. Then, we develop a bilinear variant of Benders decomposition method, wh…
We consider chance-constrained problems with discrete random distribution. We aim for problems with a large number of scenarios. We propose a novel method based on the stochastic gradient descent method which performs updates of the decision variable based only on considering a few scenarios. We modify it to handle the non-separable objective. Complexity analysis and a comparison with the standard (batch) gradient descent method is provided. We give three examples with non-convex data and show that our method provides a good solution fast even when the number of scenarios is large.
We introduce a chance constrained optimization model for the fulfillment of guaranteed display Internet advertising campaigns. The proposed formulation for the allocation of display inventory takes into account the uncertainty of the supply of Internet viewers. We discuss and present theoretical and computational features of the model via Monte Carlo sampling and convex approximations. Theoretical upper and lower bounds are presented along with a numerical substantiation.
We introduce a novel approach to reduce the computational effort of solving mixed-integer convex chance constrained programs through the scenario approach. Instead of reducing the number of required scenarios, we directly minimize the computational cost of the scenario program. We exploit the problem structure by efficiently partitioning the constraint function and considering a multiple chance constrained program that gives the same probabilistic guarantees as the original single chance constrained problem. We formulate the problem of finding the optimal partition, a partition achieving the l…
Chance-constrained programs (CCPs) constitute a difficult class of stochastic programs due to its possible nondifferentiability and nonconvexity even with simple linear random functionals. Existing approaches for solving the CCPs mainly deal with convex random functionals within the probability function. In the present paper, we consider two generalizations of the class of chance constraints commonly studied in the literature; one generalization involves probabilities of disjunctive nonconvex functional events and the other generalization involves mixed-signed affine combinations of the result…
We study a tight Bennett-type concentration inequality for sums of heterogeneous and independent variables, defined as a one-dimensional minimization. We show that this refinement, which outperforms the standard known bounds, remains computationally tractable: we develop a polynomial-time algorithm to compute confidence bounds, proved to terminate with an epsilon-solution. From the proposed inequality, we deduce tight distributionally robust bounds to Chance-Constrained Programming problems. To illustrate the efficiency of our approach, we consider two use cases. First, we study the chance-con…
Distributionally robust chance constrained programs minimize a deterministic cost function subject to the satisfaction of one or more safety conditions with high probability, given that the probability distribution of the uncertain problem parameters affecting the safety condition(s) is only known to belong to some ambiguity set. We study three popular approximation schemes for distributionally robust chance constrained programs over Wasserstein balls, where the ambiguity set contains all probability distributions within a certain Wasserstein distance to a reference distribution. The first app…
Second order conic programming (SOCP) has been used to model various applications in power systems, such as operation and expansion planning. In this paper, we present a two-stage stochastic mixed integer SOCP (MISOCP) model for the distribution system expansion planning problem that considers uncertainty and also captures the nonlinear AC power flow. To avoid costly investment plans due to some extreme scenarios, we further present a chance-constrained variant that could lead to cost-effective solutions. To address the computational challenge, we extend the basic Benders decomposition method …
In this paper, we study chance constrained mixed integer program with consideration of recourse decisions and their incurred cost, developed on a finite discrete scenario set. Through studying a non-traditional bilinear mixed integer formulation, we derive its linear counterparts and show that they could be stronger than existing linear formulations. We also develop a variant of Jensen's inequality that extends the one for stochastic program. To solve this challenging problem, we present a variant of Benders decomposition method in bilinear form, which actually provides an easy-to-use algorith…
We introduce a new method for solving nonlinear continuous optimization problems with chance constraints. Our method is based on a reformulation of the probabilistic constraint as a quantile function. The quantile function is approximated via a differentiable sample average approximation. We provide theoretical statistical guarantees of the approximation, and illustrate empirically that the reformulation can be directly used by standard nonlinear optimization solvers in the case of single chance constraints. Furthermore, we propose an S$\ell_1$QP-type trust-region method to solve instances wit…
Chance constrained program is computationally intractable due to the existence of chance constraints, which are randomly disturbed and should be satisfied with a probability. This paper proposes a two-layer randomized algorithm to address chance constrained program. Randomized optimization is applied to search the optimizer which satisfies chance constraints in a framework of parallel algorithm. Firstly, multiple decision samples are extracted uniformly in the decision domain without considering the chance constraints. Then, in the second sampling layer, violation probabilities of all the extr…
Convex sample approximations of chance-constrained optimization problems are considered, in which chance constraints are replaced by sets of sampled constraints. We propose a randomized sample selection strategy that allows tight bounds to be derived on the probability that the solution of the sample approximation is feasible for the original chance constraints when a subset of the sampled constraints is discarded. These confidence bounds are shown to be tighter than the bounds that apply if constraints are discarded according to optimal or greedy discarding strategies. We further show that th…
Uncertainties from deepening penetration of renewable energy resources have posed critical challenges to the secure and reliable operations of future electric grids. Among various approaches for decision making in uncertain environments, this paper focuses on chance-constrained optimization, which provides explicit probabilistic guarantees on the feasibility of optimal solutions. Although quite a few methods have been proposed to solve chance-constrained optimization problems, there is a lack of comprehensive review and comparative analysis of the proposed methods. Part I of this two-part pape…
This paper presents a chance constrained information gap decision model for multi-period microgrid expansion planning (MMEP) considering two categories of uncertainties, namely random and non-random uncertainties. The main task of MMEP is to determine the optimal sizing, type selection, and installation time of distributed energy resources (DER) in microgrid. In the proposed formulation, information gap decision theory (IGDT) is applied to hedge against non-random uncertainties of long-term demand growth. Then, chance constraints are imposed in the operational stage to address the random uncer…
Optimal Power Flow (OPF) dispatches controllable generation at minimum cost subject to operational constraints on generation and transmission assets. The uncertainty and variability of intermittent renewable generation is challenging current deterministic OPF approaches. Recent formulations of OPF use chance constraints to limit the risk from renewable generation uncertainty, however, these new approaches typically assume the probability distributions which characterize the uncertainty and variability are known exactly. We formulate a Robust Chance Constrained (RCC) OPF that accounts for uncer…
We consider the Chance Constrained Model Predictive Control problem for polynomial systems subject to disturbances. In this problem, we aim at finding optimal control input for given disturbed dynamical system to minimize a given cost function subject to probabilistic constraints, over a finite horizon. The control laws provided have a predefined (low) risk of not reaching the desired target set. Building on the theory of measures and moments, a sequence of finite semidefinite programmings are provided, whose solution is shown to converge to the optimal solution of the original problem. Numeri…
In this paper, we address the task of setting up an optimal production plan taking into account an uncertain demand. The energy system is represented by a system of hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs) and the uncertain demand stream is captured by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We determine the optimal inflow depending on the producer's risk preferences. The resulting output is intended to optimally match the stochastic demand for the given risk criteria. We use uncertainty quantification for an adaptation to different levels of risk aversion. More precisely, we use two types of c…
Primary frequency response is provided by synchronized generators through their speed-droop governor characteristic in response to instant frequency deviations that exceed a certain threshold, also known as the governor dead zone. This dead zone makes the speed-droop governor characteristic nonlinear and makes affine control policies that are often used for modeling the primary frequency response inaccurate. This paper presents an optimal power flow (OPF) formulation that explicitly models i) the primary frequency response constraints using a nonlinear speed-droop governor characteristic and i…
Higher levels of renewable electricity generation increase uncertainty in power system operation. To ensure secure system operation, new tools that account for this uncertainty are required. In this paper, we formulate a chance-constrained AC optimal power flow problem, which guarantees that generation, power flows and voltages remain within their bounds with a pre-defined probability. We then propose an accurate, yet tractable analytical reformulation of the chance constraints. The reformulation maintains the full, non-linear AC power flow equations for the forecasted operating point, and mod…
Recently, chance-constrained stochastic electricity market designs have been proposed to address the shortcomings of scenario-based stochastic market designs. In particular, the use of chance-constrained market-clearing avoids trading off in-expectation and per-scenario characteristics and yields unique energy and reserves prices. However, current formulations rely on symmetric control policies based on the aggregated system imbalance, which restricts balancing reserve providers in their energy and reserve commitments. This paper extends existing chance-constrained market-clearing formulations…
Chance-constrained programming (CCP) is one of the most difficult classes of optimization problems that has attracted the attention of researchers since the 1950s. In this survey, we focus on cases when only a limited information on the distribution is available, such as a sample from the distribution, or the moments of the distribution. We first review recent developments in mixed-integer linear formulations of chance-constrained programs that arise from finite discrete distributions (or sample average approximation). We highlight successful reformulations and decomposition techniques that en…
In this paper, we develop an exact reformulation and a deterministic approximation for distributionally robust joint chance-constrained programmings (DRCCPs) with a general class of convex uncertain constraints under data-driven Wasserstein ambiguity sets. It is known that robust chance constraints can be conservatively approximated by worst-case conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraints. It is shown that the proposed worst-case CVaR approximation model can be reformulated as an optimization problem involving biconvex constraints for joint DRCCP. We then derive a convex relaxation of this a…
This paper investigates the stochastic program with the chance constraint on a quadratic form of random variables following multivariate Gaussian mixture distribution (GMD). Under some mild conditions, it is proved that the asymptotic distribution of this kind of quadratic randomness is a univariate GMD. This finding helps to translate the chance constrained program into a more tractable one, based on which an effective branch-and-bound algorithm that takes advantage of the special structure of the problem is introduced to search the global optimal solution. Furthermore, it is shown that the e…
We investigate a class of chance-constrained combinatorial optimization problems. Given a pre-specified risk level $ε\in [0,1]$, the chance-constrained program aims to find the minimum cost selection of a vector of binary decisions $x$ such that a desirable event $\mathcal{B}(x)$ occurs with probability at least $ 1-ε$. In this paper, we assume that we have an oracle that computes $\mathbb P( \mathcal{B}(x))$ exactly. Using this oracle, we propose a general exact method for solving the chance-constrained problem. In addition, we show that if the chance-constrained program is solved approximate…
Aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads can provide reserves to absorb volatile renewable energy, especially solar photo-voltaic (PV) generation. In this paper, we decide HVAC control schedules under uncertain PV generation, using a distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) building load control model under two typical ambiguity sets: the moment-based and Wasserstein ambiguity sets. We derive mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) reformulations for DRCC problems under both sets. Especially, for the Wasserstein ambiguity set, we utilize the right-hand si…
Existing electricity market designs assume risk neutrality and lack risk-hedging instruments, which leads to suboptimal market outcomes and reduces the overall market efficiency. This paper enables risk-trading in the chance-constrained stochastic electricity market by introducing Arrow-Debreu Securities (ADS) and derives a risk-averse market-clearing model with risk trading. To enable risk trading, the probability space of underlying uncertainty is discretized in a finite number of outcomes, which makes it possible to design practical risk contracts and to produce energy, balancing reserve an…
We study a generalized distributionally robust chance-constrained set covering problem (DRC) with a Wasserstein ambiguity set, where both decisions and uncertainty are binary-valued. We establish the NP-hardness of DRC and recast it as a two-stage stochastic program, which facilitates decomposition algorithms. Furthermore, we derive two families of valid inequalities. The first family targets the hypograph of a "shifted" submodular function, which is associated with each scenario of the two-stage reformulation. We show that the valid inequalities give a complete description of the convex hull …
Many stochastic optimization problems include chance constraints that enforce constraint satisfaction with a specific probability; however, solving an optimization problem with chance constraints assumes that the solver has access to the exact underlying probability distribution, which is often unreasonable. In data-driven applications, it is common instead to use historical data samples as a surrogate to the distribution; however, this comes at a significant computational cost from the added time spent either processing the data or, worse, adding additional variables and constraints to the op…
Xidian University（西安电子科技大学）；KTH Royal Institute of Technology（KTH皇家理工学院）
Support vector machines (SVM) is one of the well known supervised classes of learning algorithms. Furthermore, the conic-segmentation SVM (CS-SVM) is a natural multiclass analogue of the standard binary SVM, as CS-SVM models are dealing with the situation where the exact values of the data points are known. This paper studies CS-SVM when the data points are uncertain or mislabelled. With some properties known for the distributions, a chance-constrained CS-SVM approach is used to ensure the small probability of misclassification for the uncertain data. The geometric interpretation is presented …
