Recent work in the domain of misinformation detection has leveraged rich signals in the text and user identities associated with content on social media. But text can be strategically manipulated and accounts reopened under different aliases, suggesting that these approaches are inherently brittle. In this work, we investigate an alternative modality that is naturally robust: the pattern in which information propagates. Can the veracity of an unverified rumor spreading online be discerned solely on the basis of its pattern of diffusion through the social network?
Using graph kernels to extract complex topological information from Twitter cascade structures, we train accurate predictive models that are blind to language, user identities, and time, demonstrating for the first time that such "sanitized" diffusion patterns are highly informative of veracity. Our results indicate that, with proper aggregation, the collective sharing pattern of the crowd may reveal powerful signals of rumor truth or falsehood, even in the early stages of propagation.
Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院自动化研究所）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）
Automatically verifying rumorous information has become an important and challenging task in natural language processing and social media analytics. Previous studies reveal that people's stances towards rumorous messages can provide indicative clues for identifying the veracity of rumors, and thus determining the stances of public reactions is a crucial preceding step for rumor veracity prediction. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical multi-task learning framework for jointly predicting rumor stance and veracity on Twitter, which consists of two components. The bottom component of our fram…
With the pervasiveness of online media data as a source of information verifying the validity of this information is becoming even more important yet quite challenging. Rumors spread a large quantity of misinformation on microblogs. In this study we address two common issues within the context of microblog social media. First we detect rumors as a type of misinformation propagation and next we go beyond detection to perform the task of rumor classification. WE explore the problem using a standard data set. We devise novel features and study their impact on the task. We experiment with various …
With the increasing use of online social networks as a source of news and information, the propensity for a rumor to disseminate widely and quickly poses a great concern, especially in disaster situations where users do not have enough time to fact-check posts before making the informed decision to react to a post that appears to be credible. In this study, we explore the propagation pattern of rumors on Twitter by exploring the dynamics of microscopic-level misinformation spread, based on the latent message and user interaction attributes. We perform supervised learning for feature selection …
Social media have become part of modern news reporting, used by journalists to spread information and find sources, or as a news source by individuals. The quest for prominence and recognition on social media sites like Twitter can sometimes eclipse accuracy and lead to the spread of false information. As a way to study and react to this trend, we introduce {\sc TwitterTrails}, an interactive, web-based tool ({\tt twittertrails.com}) that allows users to investigate the origin and propagation characteristics of a rumor and its refutation, if any, on Twitter. Visualizations of burst activity, p…
The prevalence of social media has made information sharing possible across the globe. The downside, unfortunately, is the wide spread of misinformation. Methods applied in most previous rumor classifiers give an equal weight, or attention, to words in the microblog, and do not take the context beyond microblog contents into account; therefore, the accuracy becomes plateaued. In this research, we propose an ensemble neural architecture to detect rumor on Twitter. The architecture incorporates word attention and context from the author to enhance the classification performance. In particular, t…
The 2016 U.S. presidential election has witnessed the major role of Twitter in the year's most important political event. Candidates used this social media platform extensively for online campaigns. Meanwhile, social media has been filled with rumors, which might have had huge impacts on voters' decisions. In this paper, we present a thorough analysis of rumor tweets from the followers of two presidential candidates: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. To overcome the difficulty of labeling a large amount of tweets as training data, we detect rumor tweets by matching them with verified rumor art…
Institute of Information Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院信息工程研究所）；School of Cyber Security, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学网络空间安全学院）；Macquarie University（麦考瑞大学）；Xiaomi AI Lab（小米人工智能实验室）
With the rapid development of mobile Internet technology and the widespread use of mobile devices, it becomes much easier for people to express their opinions on social media. The openness and convenience of social media platforms provide a free expression for people but also cause new social problems. The widespread of false rumors on social media can bring about the panic of the public and damage personal reputation, which makes rumor automatic detection technology become particularly necessary. The majority of existing methods for rumor detection focus on mining effective features from text…
This paper reports the findings of a 606-participant study where we analyzed the perception and engagement effects of COVID-19 vaccine rumours on Twitter pertaining to (a) vaccine efficacy; and (b) mass immunization efforts in the United States. Misperceptions regarding vaccine efficacy were successfully induced through simple content alterations and the addition of popular anti COVID-19 hashtags to otherwise valid Twitter content. Twitter's misinformation contextual tags caused a "backfire effect" for the skeptic, vaccine-hesitant reinforcing their opposition stance. While the majority of the…
As social media becomes a hotbed for the spread of misinformation, the crucial task of rumor detection has witnessed promising advances fostered by open-source benchmark datasets. Despite being widely used, we find that these datasets suffer from spurious correlations, which are ignored by existing studies and lead to severe overestimation of existing rumor detection performance. The spurious correlations stem from three causes: (1) event-based data collection and labeling schemes assign the same veracity label to multiple highly similar posts from the same underlying event; (2) merging multip…
Users of social networks tend to post and share content with little restraint. Hence, rumors and fake news can quickly spread on a huge scale. This may pose a threat to the credibility of social media and can cause serious consequences in real life. Therefore, the task of rumor detection and verification has become extremely important. Assessing the veracity of a social media message (e.g., by fact checkers) involves analyzing the text of the message, its context and any multimedia attachment. This is a very time-consuming task that can be much helped by machine learning. In the literature, mo…
Université de Lyon（里昂大学）；Laboratoire Cogitamus（科吉塔穆斯实验室）
The proliferation of rumors on social media has become a major concern due to its ability to create a devastating impact. Manually assessing the veracity of social media messages is a very time-consuming task that can be much helped by machine learning. Most message veracity verification methods only exploit textual contents and metadata. Very few take both textual and visual contents, and more particularly images, into account. Moreover, prior works have used many classical machine learning models to detect rumors. However, although recent studies have proven the effectiveness of ensemble mac…
In this paper we introduce ArCOV19-Rumors, an Arabic COVID-19 Twitter dataset for misinformation detection composed of tweets containing claims from 27th January till the end of April 2020. We collected 138 verified claims, mostly from popular fact-checking websites, and identified 9.4K relevant tweets to those claims. Tweets were manually-annotated by veracity to support research on misinformation detection, which is one of the major problems faced during a pandemic. ArCOV19-Rumors supports two levels of misinformation detection over Twitter: verifying free-text claims (called claim-level ver…
While social networks can provide an ideal platform for up-to-date information from individuals across the world, it has also proved to be a place where rumours fester and accidental or deliberate misinformation often emerges. In this article, we aim to support the task of making sense from social media data, and specifically, seek to build an autonomous message-classifier that filters relevant and trustworthy information from Twitter. For our work, we collected about 100 million public tweets, including users' past tweets, from which we identified 72 rumours (41 true, 31 false). We considered…
A myriad of studies addressed the problem of rumor verification in Twitter by either utilizing evidence from the propagation networks or external evidence from the Web. However, none of these studies exploited evidence from trusted authorities. In this paper, we define the task of detecting the stance of authorities towards rumors in tweets, i.e., whether a tweet from an authority agrees, disagrees, or is unrelated to the rumor. We believe the task is useful to augment the sources of evidence utilized by existing rumor verification systems. We construct and release the first Authority STance t…
Indraprastha Institute of Information Technology（英迪拉·甘地信息技术学院）
Following the wave of misinterpreted, manipulated and malicious information growing on the Internet, the misinformation surrounding COVID-19 has become a paramount issue. In the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic, social media posts and platforms are at risk of rumors and misinformation in the face of the serious uncertainty surrounding the virus itself. At the same time, the uncertainty and new nature of COVID-19 means that other unconfirmed information that may appear "rumored" may be an important indicator of the behavior and impact of this new virus. Twitter, in particular, has taken…
Center for Artificial Intelligence Research (CAiRE)（人工智能研究中心（CAiRE））；Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）
Rumors are often associated with newly emerging events, thus, an ability to deal with unseen rumors is crucial for a rumor veracity classification model. Previous works address this issue by improving the model's generalizability, with an assumption that the model will stay unchanged even after the new outbreak of an event. In this work, we propose an alternative solution to continuously update the model in accordance with the dynamics of rumor domain creations. The biggest technical challenge associated with this new approach is the catastrophic forgetting of previous learnings due to new lea…
Existing rumor detection strategies typically provide detection labels while ignoring their explanation. Nonetheless, providing pieces of evidence to explain why a suspicious tweet is rumor is essential. As such, a novel model, LOSIRD, was proposed in this paper. First, LOSIRD mines appropriate evidence sentences and classifies them by automatically checking the veracity of the relationship of the given claim and its evidence from about 5 million Wikipedia documents. LOSIRD then automatically constructs two heterogeneous graph objects to simulate the propagation layout of the tweets and code t…
False rumors are known to have detrimental effects on society. To prevent the spread of false rumors, social media platforms such as Twitter must detect them early. In this work, we develop a novel probabilistic mixture model that classifies true vs. false rumors based on the underlying spreading process. Specifically, our model is the first to formalize the self-exciting nature of true vs. false retweeting processes. This results in a novel mixture marked Hawkes model (MMHM). Owing to this, our model obviates the need for feature engineering; instead, it directly models the spreading process …
Social media has been rapidly developing in the public sphere due to its ease of spreading new information, which leads to the circulation of rumors. However, detecting rumors from such a massive amount of information is becoming an increasingly arduous challenge. Previous work generally obtained valuable features from propagation information. It should be noted that most methods only target the propagation structure while ignoring the rumor transmission pattern. This limited focus severely restricts the collection of spread data. To solve this problem, the authors of the present study are mot…
The extensive use of social media in the diffusion of information has also laid a fertile ground for the spread of rumors, which could significantly affect the credibility of social media. An ever-increasing number of users post news including, in addition to text, multimedia data such as images and videos. Yet, such multimedia content is easily editable due to the broad availability of simple and effective image and video processing tools. The problem of assessing the veracity of social network posts has attracted a lot of attention from researchers in recent years. However, almost all previo…
In February 2016, World Health Organization declared the Zika outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. With developing evidence it can cause birth defects, and the Summer Olympics coming up in the worst affected country, Brazil, the virus caught fire on social media. In this work, use Zika as a case study in building a tool for tracking the misinformation around health concerns on Twitter. We collect more than 13 million tweets -- spanning the initial reports in February 2016 and the Summer Olympics -- regarding the Zika outbreak and track rumors outlined by the World Healt…
University of Florida（佛罗里达大学）；Federal University of Paraná（巴拉那联邦大学）
Misinformation entails the dissemination of falsehoods that leads to the slow fracturing of society via decreased trust in democratic processes, institutions, and science. The public has grown aware of the role of social media as a superspreader of untrustworthy information, where even pandemics have not been immune. In this paper, we focus on COVID-19 misinformation and examine a subset of 2.1M tweets to understand misinformation as a function of engagement, tweet content (COVID-19- vs. non-COVID-19-related), and veracity (misleading or factual). Using correlation analysis, we show the most r…
The propagation of a rumor (unverified information) on a social network is subject to several factors mainly related to the content of this information and especially to the behaviors (profiles) of the actors on this network that retransmit. This state of affairs may vary this propagation as the case may be, and this is what we call the depth of the rumor. This project is tackling this problem. From a real case of the spread of a rumor on Twitter, this contribution proposes an academic approach to quantify the depth of a rumor on social networks and this, for use and interpretation, by special…
While false rumors pose a threat to the successful overcoming of the COVID-19 pandemic, an understanding of how rumors diffuse in online social networks is - even for non-crisis situations - still in its infancy. Here we analyze a large sample consisting of COVID-19 rumor cascades from Twitter that have been fact-checked by third-party organizations. The data comprises N=10,610 rumor cascades that have been retweeted more than 24 million times. We investigate whether COVID-19 misinformation spreads more viral than the truth and whether the differences in the diffusion of true vs. false rumors …
Social media platforms disseminate extensive volumes of online content, including true and, in particular, false rumors. Previous literature has studied the diffusion of offline rumors, yet more research is needed to understand the diffusion of online rumors. In this paper, we examine the role of lifetime and crowd effects in social media sharing behavior for true vs. false rumors. Based on 126,301 Twitter cascades, we find that the sharing behavior is characterized by lifetime and crowd effects that explain differences in the spread of true as opposed to false rumors. All else equal, we find …
DSO National Laboratories（国防科技研究院）；Singapore Management University（新加坡管理大学）
We address rumor detection by learning to differentiate between the community's response to real and fake claims in microblogs. Existing state-of-the-art models are based on tree models that model conversational trees. However, in social media, a user posting a reply might be replying to the entire thread rather than to a specific user. We propose a post-level attention model (PLAN) to model long distance interactions between tweets with the multi-head attention mechanism in a transformer network. We investigated variants of this model: (1) a structure aware self-attention model (StA-PLAN) tha…
Microblogging websites like Twitter have been shown to be immensely useful for spreading information on a global scale within seconds. The detrimental effect, however, of such platforms is that misinformation and rumors are also as likely to spread on the network as credible, verified information. From a public health standpoint, the spread of misinformation creates unnecessary panic for the public. We recently witnessed several such scenarios during the outbreak of Ebola in 2014 [14, 1]. In order to effectively counter the medical misinformation in a timely manner, our goal here is to study t…
Social media, such as Facebook and Twitter, has become one of the most important channels for information dissemination. However, these social media platforms are often misused to spread rumors, which has brought about severe social problems, and consequently, there are urgent needs for automatic rumor detection techniques. Existing work on rumor detection concentrates more on the utilization of textual features, but diffusion structure itself can provide critical propagating information in identifying rumors. Previous works which have considered structural information, only utilize limited pr…
With the development of social media, social communication has changed. While this facilitates people's communication and access to information, it also provides an ideal platform for spreading rumors. In normal or critical situations, rumors will affect people's judgment and even endanger social security. However, natural language is high-dimensional and sparse, and the same rumor may be expressed in hundreds of ways on social media. As such, the robustness and generalization of the current rumor detection model are put into question. We proposed a novel \textbf{h}ierarchical \textbf{a}dversa…
In the last years, the study of rumor spreading on social networks produced a lot of interest among the scientific community, expecially due to the role of social networks in the last political events. The goal of this work is to reproduce real-like diffusions of information and misinformation in a scale-free network using a multi-agent-based model. The data concerning the virtual spreading are easily obtainable, in particular the diffusion of information during the announcement for the discovery of the Higgs Boson on Twitter was recorded and investigated in detail. We made some assumptions on…
How information spreads through a social network? Can we assume, that the information is spread only through a given social network graph? What is the correct way to compare the models of information flow? These are the basic questions we address in this work. We focus on meticulous comparison of various, well-known models of rumor propagation in the social network. We introduce the model incorporating mass media and effects of absent nodes. In this model the information appears spontaneously in the graph. Using the most conservative metric, we showed that the distribution of cascades sizes ge…
Center of Innovation and Development in Artificial Intelligence（人工智能创新与发展中心）；Umm Al-Qura University（乌姆·库拉大学）
The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19), emerged late December 2019 in China, is now rapidly spreading across the globe. At the time of writing this paper, the number of global confirmed cases has passed two millions and half with over 180,000 fatalities. Many countries have enforced strict social distancing policies to contain the spread of the virus. This have changed the daily life of tens of millions of people, and urged people to turn their discussions online, e.g., via online social media sites like Twitter. In this work, we describe the first Arabic tweets dataset on COVID-19 that we ha…
We study complex time series (spike trains) of online user communication while spreading messages about the discovery of the Higgs boson in Twitter. We focus on online social interactions among users such as retweet, mention, and reply, and construct different types of active (performing an action) and passive (receiving an action) spike trains for each user. The spike trains are analyzed by means of local variation, to quantify the temporal behavior of active and passive users, as a function of their activity and popularity. We show that the active spike trains are bursty, independently of th…
At the time of this writing, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak has already put tremendous strain on many countries' citizens, resources and economies around the world. Social distancing measures, travel bans, self-quarantines, and business closures are changing the very fabric of societies worldwide. With people forced out of public spaces, much conversation about these phenomena now occurs online, e.g., on social media platforms like Twitter. In this paper, we describe a multilingual coronavirus (COVID-19) Twitter dataset that we have been continuously collecting since Januar…
Twitter has become one of the main sources of news for many people. As real-world events and emergencies unfold, Twitter is abuzz with hundreds of thousands of stories about the events. Some of these stories are harmless, while others could potentially be life-saving or sources of malicious rumors. Thus, it is critically important to be able to efficiently track stories that spread on Twitter during these events. In this paper, we present a novel semi-automatic tool that enables users to efficiently identify and track stories about real-world events on Twitter. We ran a user study with 25 part…
During sudden onset crisis events, the presence of spam, rumors and fake content on Twitter reduces the value of information contained on its messages (or "tweets"). A possible solution to this problem is to use machine learning to automatically evaluate the credibility of a tweet, i.e. whether a person would deem the tweet believable or trustworthy. This has been often framed and studied as a supervised classification problem in an off-line (post-hoc) setting. In this paper, we present a semi-supervised ranking model for scoring tweets according to their credibility. This model is used in Twe…
While Twitter provides an unprecedented opportunity to learn about breaking news and current events as they happen, it often produces skepticism among users as not all the information is accurate but also hoaxes are sometimes spread. While avoiding the diffusion of hoaxes is a major concern during fast-paced events such as natural disasters, the study of how users trust and verify information from tweets in these contexts has received little attention so far. We survey users on credibility perceptions regarding witness pictures posted on Twitter related to Hurricane Sandy. By examining credibi…
This study focuses on how scientifically-correct information is disseminated through social media, and how misinformation can be corrected. We have identified examples on Twitter where scientific terms that have been misused have been rectified and replaced by scientifically-correct terms through the interaction of users. The results show that the percentage of correct terms ("variant" or "COVID-19 variant") being used instead of the incorrect terms ("strain") on Twitter has already increased since the end of December 2020. This was about a month before the release of an official statement by …
Information spreading social media platforms has become ubiquitous in our lives due to viral information propagation regardless of its veracity. Some information cascades turn out to be viral since they circulated rapidly on the Internet. The uncontrollable virality of manipulated or disorientated true information (fake news) might be quite harmful, while the spread of the true news is advantageous, especially in emergencies. We tackle the problem of predicting information cascades by presenting a novel variant of SEIZ (Susceptible/ Exposed/ Infected/ Skeptics) model that outperforms the origi…
In recent years, malicious information had an explosive growth in social media, with serious social and political backlashes. Recent important studies, featuring large-scale analyses, have produced deeper knowledge about this phenomenon, showing that misleading information spreads faster, deeper and more broadly than factual information on social media, where echo chambers, algorithmic and human biases play an important role in diffusion networks. Following these directions, we explore the possibility of classifying news articles circulating on social media based exclusively on a topological a…
The spread of misinformation on social media is a pressing societal problem that platforms, policymakers, and researchers continue to grapple with. As a countermeasure, recent works have proposed to employ non-expert fact-checkers in the crowd to fact-check social media content. While experimental studies suggest that crowds might be able to accurately assess the veracity of social media content, an understanding of how crowd fact-checked (mis-)information spreads is missing. In this work, we empirically analyze the spread of misleading vs. not misleading community fact-checked posts on social…
In the past decade, the social networks platforms and micro-blogging sites such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and Weibo have become an integral part of our day-to-day activities and is widely used all over the world by billions of users to share their views and circulate information in the form of messages, pictures, and videos. These are even used by government agencies to spread important information through their verified Facebook accounts and official Twitter handles, as they can reach a huge population within a limited time window. However, many deceptive activities like propaganda and…
The proliferation of social media platforms like Twitter has heightened the consequences of the spread of misinformation. To understand and model the spread of misinformation, in this paper, we leveraged the SEIZ (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Skeptics) epidemiological model to describe the underlying process that delineates the spread of misinformation on Twitter. Compared to the other epidemiological models, this model produces broader results because it includes the additional Skeptics (Z) compartment, wherein a user may be exposed to an item of misinformation but not engage in any reacti…
Veracity of data posted on the microblog platforms has in recent years been a subject of intensive study by professionals specializing in various fields of informatics as well as sociology, particularly in the light of increasing importance of online tools for news spreading. On Twitter and similar sites, it is possible to report on ongoing situations globally with minimal delay, while the cost of such reporting remains negligible. One of the most important features of this social network is that content delivery can be customized to allow users to focus only on news items covering subject mat…
Extreme pricing anomalies may occur unexpectedly without a trivial cause, and equity traders typically experience a meticulous process to source disparate information and analyze its reliability before integrating it into the trusted knowledge base. We introduce DeepTrust, a reliable financial knowledge retrieval framework on Twitter to explain extreme price moves at speed, while ensuring data veracity using state-of-the-art NLP techniques. Our proposed framework consists of three modules, specialized for anomaly detection, information retrieval and reliability assessment. The workflow starts …
Inspired by a European project, PHEME, that requires the close analysis of Twitter-based conversations in order to look at the spread of rumors via social media, this paper has two objectives. The first of these is to take the analysis of microblogs back to first principles and lay out what microblog analysis should look like as a foundational programme of work. The other is to describe how this is of fundamental relevance to Human-Computer Interaction's interest in grasping the constitution of people's interactions with technology within the social order. Our critical finding is that, despite…
We address the diffusion of information about the COVID-19 with a massive data analysis on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, Reddit and Gab. We analyze engagement and interest in the COVID-19 topic and provide a differential assessment on the evolution of the discourse on a global scale for each platform and their users. We fit information spreading with epidemic models characterizing the basic reproduction numbers $R_0$ for each social media platform. Moreover, we characterize information spreading from questionable sources, finding different volumes of misinformation in each platform. However, in…
CountingLab Ltd.（康汀实验室有限公司）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University of Kent（肯特大学）
Social media communications are becoming increasingly prevalent; some useful, some false, whether unwittingly or maliciously. An increasing number of rumours daily flood the social networks. Determining their veracity in an autonomous way is a very active and challenging field of research, with a variety of methods proposed. However, most of the models rely on determining the constituent messages' stance towards the rumour, a feature known as the "wisdom of the crowd". Although several supervised machine-learning approaches have been proposed to tackle the message stance classification problem…
The study of the organization of social networks is important for understanding of opinion formation, rumor spreading, and the emergence of trends and fashion. This paper reports empirical analysis of networks extracted from four leading sites with social functionality (Delicious, Flickr, Twitter and YouTube) and shows that they all display a scale-free leadership structure. To reproduce this feature, we propose an adaptive network model driven by social recommending. Artificial agent-based simulations of this model highlight a "good get richer" mechanism where users with broad interests and g…
