False rumors are known to have detrimental effects on society. To prevent the spread of false rumors, social media platforms such as Twitter must detect them early. In this work, we develop a novel probabilistic mixture model that classifies true vs. false rumors based on the underlying spreading process. Specifically, our model is the first to formalize the self-exciting nature of true vs. false retweeting processes. This results in a novel mixture marked Hawkes model (MMHM). Owing to this, our model obviates the need for feature engineering; instead, it directly models the spreading process in order to make inferences of whether online rumors are incorrect. Our evaluation is based on 13,650 retweet cascades of both true. vs. false rumors from Twitter. Our model recognizes false rumors with a balanced accuracy of 64.97% and an AUC of 69.46%. It outperforms state-of-the-art baselines (both neural and feature engineering) by a considerable margin but while being fully interpretable. Our work has direct implications for practitioners: it leverages the spreading process as an implicit quality signal and, based on it, detects false content.
Social media have become part of modern news reporting, used by journalists to spread information and find sources, or as a news source by individuals. The quest for prominence and recognition on social media sites like Twitter can sometimes eclipse accuracy and lead to the spread of false information. As a way to study and react to this trend, we introduce {\sc TwitterTrails}, an interactive, web-based tool ({\tt twittertrails.com}) that allows users to investigate the origin and propagation characteristics of a rumor and its refutation, if any, on Twitter. Visualizations of burst activity, p…
Social media platforms disseminate extensive volumes of online content, including true and, in particular, false rumors. Previous literature has studied the diffusion of offline rumors, yet more research is needed to understand the diffusion of online rumors. In this paper, we examine the role of lifetime and crowd effects in social media sharing behavior for true vs. false rumors. Based on 126,301 Twitter cascades, we find that the sharing behavior is characterized by lifetime and crowd effects that explain differences in the spread of true as opposed to false rumors. All else equal, we find …
We study complex time series (spike trains) of online user communication while spreading messages about the discovery of the Higgs boson in Twitter. We focus on online social interactions among users such as retweet, mention, and reply, and construct different types of active (performing an action) and passive (receiving an action) spike trains for each user. The spike trains are analyzed by means of local variation, to quantify the temporal behavior of active and passive users, as a function of their activity and popularity. We show that the active spike trains are bursty, independently of th…
University of Tabriz（大不里士大学）；Islamic Azad University（伊斯兰阿扎德大学）；Istanbul Topkapi University（伊斯坦布尔托普卡帕大学）；Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center Shreveport（路易斯安那州立大学什里夫波特健康科学中心）
With technologies that have democratized the production and reproduction of information, a significant portion of daily interacted posts in social media has been infected by rumors. Despite the extensive research on rumor detection and verification, so far, the problem of calculating the spread power of rumors has not been considered. To address this research gap, the present study seeks a model to calculate the Spread Power of Rumor (SPR) as the function of content-based features in two categories: False Rumor (FR) and True Rumor (TR). For this purpose, the theory of Allport and Postman will …
While false rumors pose a threat to the successful overcoming of the COVID-19 pandemic, an understanding of how rumors diffuse in online social networks is - even for non-crisis situations - still in its infancy. Here we analyze a large sample consisting of COVID-19 rumor cascades from Twitter that have been fact-checked by third-party organizations. The data comprises N=10,610 rumor cascades that have been retweeted more than 24 million times. We investigate whether COVID-19 misinformation spreads more viral than the truth and whether the differences in the diffusion of true vs. false rumors …
This research examines the propagation of rumors on social networks during public health emergencies and explores strategies to effectively manage false information in cyberspace. Using a simulation model, the study analyzes the impact of factors such as communication channel control, government intervention, and individual personalities on the spread of rumors. The results suggest that enhancing netizens' knowledge and capacity to recognize and resist rumors, developing rumor-debunking platforms, and promoting a "clear" ecology of network information content are effective strategies for contr…
A new era of Information Warfare has arrived. Various actors, including state-sponsored ones, are weaponizing information on Online Social Networks to run false information campaigns with targeted manipulation of public opinion on specific topics. These false information campaigns can have dire consequences to the public: mutating their opinions and actions, especially with respect to critical world events like major elections. Evidently, the problem of false information on the Web is a crucial one, and needs increased public awareness, as well as immediate attention from law enforcement agenc…
Information Operations Research Group (IORG)（信息作战研究小组）；Feng Chia University（逢甲大学）
In this work we looked into a dataset of 114 thousands of suspicious messages collected from the most popular closed messaging platform in Taiwan between January and July, 2020. We proposed an hybrid algorithm that could efficiently cluster a large number of text messages according their topics and narratives. That is, we obtained groups of messages that are within a limited content alterations within each other. By employing the algorithm to the dataset, we were able to look at the content alterations and the temporal dynamics of each particular rumor over time. With qualitative case studies …
With the increasing use of online social networks as a source of news and information, the propensity for a rumor to disseminate widely and quickly poses a great concern, especially in disaster situations where users do not have enough time to fact-check posts before making the informed decision to react to a post that appears to be credible. In this study, we explore the propagation pattern of rumors on Twitter by exploring the dynamics of microscopic-level misinformation spread, based on the latent message and user interaction attributes. We perform supervised learning for feature selection …
With the development of network technology, many social media are flourishing. Due to imperfect Internet regulation, the spread of false rumors has become a common problem on those social platforms. Social platforms can generate rumor data in their operation process, but existing rumor detection models are all constructed for a single social platform, which ignores the value of cross-platform rumor. This paper combines the federated learning paradigm with the bidirectional graph attention network rumor detection model and proposes the federated graph attention network(FedGAT) model for rumor d…
With the growing popularity and ease of access to the internet, the problem of online rumors is escalating. People are relying on social media to gain information readily but fall prey to false information. There is a lack of credibility assessment techniques for online posts to identify rumors as soon as they arrive. Existing studies have formulated several mechanisms to combat online rumors by developing machine learning and deep learning algorithms. The literature so far provides supervised frameworks for rumor classification that rely on huge training datasets. However, in the online scena…
Institute of Information Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院信息工程研究所）；School of Cyber Security, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学网络空间安全学院）；Macquarie University（麦考瑞大学）；Xiaomi AI Lab（小米人工智能实验室）
With the rapid development of mobile Internet technology and the widespread use of mobile devices, it becomes much easier for people to express their opinions on social media. The openness and convenience of social media platforms provide a free expression for people but also cause new social problems. The widespread of false rumors on social media can bring about the panic of the public and damage personal reputation, which makes rumor automatic detection technology become particularly necessary. The majority of existing methods for rumor detection focus on mining effective features from text…
In the contemporary era of information explosion, we are often faced with the mixture of massive \emph{truth} (true information) and \emph{rumor} (false information) flooded over social networks. Under such circumstances, it is very essential to infer whether each claim (e.g., news, messages) is a truth or a rumor, and identify their \emph{sources}, i.e., the users who initially spread those claims. While most prior arts have been dedicated to the two tasks respectively, this paper aims to offer the joint inference on truth/rumor and their sources. Our insight is that a joint inference can enh…
Harvard University（哈佛大学）；Kensho Technologies（肯肖科技）；Harvard Data Science Initiative（哈佛数据科学倡议）
Recent work in the domain of misinformation detection has leveraged rich signals in the text and user identities associated with content on social media. But text can be strategically manipulated and accounts reopened under different aliases, suggesting that these approaches are inherently brittle. In this work, we investigate an alternative modality that is naturally robust: the pattern in which information propagates. Can the veracity of an unverified rumor spreading online be discerned solely on the basis of its pattern of diffusion through the social network? Using graph kernels to extract…
The spreading of unsubstantiated rumors on online social networks (OSN) either unintentionally or intentionally (e.g., for political reasons or even trolling) can have serious consequences such as in the recent case of rumors about Ebola causing disruption to health-care workers. Here we show that indicators aimed at quantifying information consumption patterns might provide important insights about the virality of false claims. In particular, we address the driving forces behind the popularity of contents by analyzing a sample of 1.2M Facebook Italian users consuming different (and opposite) …
Social media are pervaded by unsubstantiated or untruthful rumors, that contribute to the alarming phenomenon of misinformation. The widespread presence of a heterogeneous mass of information sources may affect the mechanisms behind the formation of public opinion. Such a scenario is a florid environment for digital wildfires when combined with functional illiteracy, information overload, and confirmation bias. In this essay, we focus on a collection of works aiming at providing quantitative evidence about the cognitive determinants behind misinformation and rumor spreading. We account for use…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, social media has become a home ground for misinformation. To tackle this infodemic, scientific oversight, as well as a better understanding by practitioners in crisis management, is needed. We have conducted an exploratory study into the propagation, authors and content of misinformation on Twitter around the topic of COVID-19 in order to gain early insights. We have collected all tweets mentioned in the verdicts of fact-checked claims related to COVID-19 by over 92 professional fact-checking organisations between January and mid-July 2020 and share this corpus wi…
Despite the enthusiastic rhetoric about the so called \emph{collective intelligence}, conspiracy theories -- e.g. global warming induced by chemtrails or the link between vaccines and autism -- find on the Web a natural medium for their dissemination. Users preferentially consume information according to their system of beliefs and the strife within users of opposite narratives may result in heated debates. In this work we provide a genuine example of information consumption from a sample of 1.2 million of Facebook Italian users. We show by means of a thorough quantitative analysis that inform…
Social media posts may go viral and reach large numbers of people within a short period of time. Such posts may threaten the public dialogue if they contain misleading content, making their early detection highly crucial. Previous works proposed their own metrics to annotate if a tweet is viral or not in order to automatically detect them later. However, such metrics may not accurately represent viral tweets or may introduce too many false positives. In this work, we use the ground truth data provided by Twitter's "Viral Tweets" topic to review the current metrics and also propose our own metr…
This study focuses on how scientifically-correct information is disseminated through social media, and how misinformation can be corrected. We have identified examples on Twitter where scientific terms that have been misused have been rectified and replaced by scientifically-correct terms through the interaction of users. The results show that the percentage of correct terms ("variant" or "COVID-19 variant") being used instead of the incorrect terms ("strain") on Twitter has already increased since the end of December 2020. This was about a month before the release of an official statement by …
Social media is interactive, and interaction brings misinformation. With the growing amount of user-generated data, fake news on online platforms has become much frequent since the arrival of social networks. Now and then, an event occurs and becomes the topic of discussion, generating and propagating false information. Existing literature studying fake news primarily elaborates on fake news classification models. Approaches exploring fake news characteristics and ways to distinguish it from real news are minimal. Not many researches have focused on statistical testing and generating new facto…
Combating fake news needs a variety of defense methods. Although rumor detection and various linguistic analysis techniques are common methods to detect false content in social media, there are other feasible mitigation approaches that could be explored in the machine learning community. In this paper, we present open issues and opportunities in fake news research that need further attention. We first review different stages of the news life cycle in social media and discuss core vulnerability issues for news feed algorithms in propagating fake news content with three examples. We then discuss…
During the summer of 2019-20, while Australia suffered unprecedented bushfires across the country, false narratives regarding arson and limited backburning spread quickly on Twitter, particularly using the hashtag #ArsonEmergency. Misinformation and bot- and troll-like behaviour were detected and reported by social media researchers and the news soon reached mainstream media. This paper examines the communication and behaviour of two polarised online communities before and after news of the misinformation became public knowledge. Specifically, the Supporter community actively engaged with othe…
The rising attention to the spreading of fake news and unsubstantiated rumors on online social media and the pivotal role played by confirmation bias led researchers to investigate different aspects of the phenomenon. Experimental evidence showed that confirmatory information gets accepted even if containing deliberately false claims while dissenting information is mainly ignored or might even increase group polarization. It seems reasonable that, to address misinformation problem properly, we have to understand the main determinants behind content consumption and the emergence of narratives o…
In recent years, malicious information had an explosive growth in social media, with serious social and political backlashes. Recent important studies, featuring large-scale analyses, have produced deeper knowledge about this phenomenon, showing that misleading information spreads faster, deeper and more broadly than factual information on social media, where echo chambers, algorithmic and human biases play an important role in diffusion networks. Following these directions, we explore the possibility of classifying news articles circulating on social media based exclusively on a topological a…
According to the World Economic Forum, the diffusion of unsubstantiated rumors on online social media is one of the main threats for our society. The disintermediated paradigm of content production and consumption on online social media might foster the formation of homophile communities (echo-chambers) around specific worldviews. Such a scenario has been shown to be a vivid environment for the diffusion of false claims, in particular with respect to conspiracy theories. Not rarely, viral phenomena trigger naive (and funny) social responses -- e.g., the recent case of Jade Helm 15 where a simp…
