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arXiv 1910.04883econ.EMstat.ME
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分类调查响应的潜Dirichlet分析

Latent Dirichlet Analysis of Categorical Survey Responses

Evan Munro, Serena Ng

摘要:

信念是个人选择和经济结果的重要决定因素,因此了解它们如何在个体之间变化和差异是相当有趣的。研究人员经常依赖于将个人信念报告为定性数据的调查。我们建议使用贝叶斯分层潜在类模型来分析分类调查响应中的共动和观察到的异质性。我们表明,统计模型对应于经济结构模型的信息采集,指导解释和估计的模型参数。提出了一种基于随机优化的算法,用于在响应服从动态结构且共轭先验不合适的情况下估计重复调查的模型。还提供了关于选择信念类型数量的指导。考虑两个例子。第一个显示,密歇根州的调查答复中有超出官方公布的消费者信心指数的信息。第二个表明,从调查问卷中构建的信念类型可以用于随后的分析,以估计异质回报的教育。

英文摘要:

Beliefs are important determinants of an individual's choices and economic outcomes, so understanding how they comove and differ across individuals is of considerable interest. Researchers often rely on surveys that report individual beliefs as qualitative data. We propose using a Bayesian hierarchical latent class model to analyze the comovements and observed heterogeneity in categorical survey responses. We show that the statistical model corresponds to an economic structural model of information acquisition, which guides interpretation and estimation of the model parameters. An algorithm based on stochastic optimization is proposed to estimate a model for repeated surveys when responses follow a dynamic structure and conjugate priors are not appropriate. Guidance on selecting the number of belief types is also provided. Two examples are considered. The first shows that there is information in the Michigan survey responses beyond the consumer sentiment index that is officially published. The second shows that belief types constructed from survey responses can be used in a subsequent analysis to estimate heterogeneous returns to education.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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