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arXiv 1909.09239q-fin.GNecon.GNmath.PRq-fin.EC
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非齐次随机金融网络的系统性级联

Systemic Cascades On Inhomogeneous Random Financial Networks

T. R. Hurd

摘要:

这篇系统性风险论文介绍了非齐次随机金融网络。这些模型旨在描述全球金融体系中高度异质性的银行网络及其相互联系的部分或全部。银行的资产负债表和程式化的危机行为都是网络模型的组成部分。系统性危机被描述为由银行资产负债表的冲击引发,然后导致破坏性冲击的传播和危机放大的可能性,最终导致系统处于级联平衡。在某些条件下,该模型具有“局部树型独立性(LTI)”,其中一般的渗流理论论证导致一个分析不动点方程描述级联平衡时,系统中的银行$N$的数量取无穷大。本文重点介绍的数学性质的框架的背景下,艾森伯格-诺埃偿付能力级联广义占分数破产费用。新的结果,包括定义和证明的“LTI属性”的艾森伯格-诺埃的偿付能力级联机制导致明确的$N=\infty$不动点方程下出现非常一般的模型规格。的基本公式被证明是可实现的,通过定义良好的近似方案,但一些广泛的潜在应用的方法的数值探索是留给未来的工作。

英文摘要:

This systemic risk paper introduces inhomogeneous random financial networks (IRFNs). Such models are intended to describe parts, or the entirety, of a highly heterogeneous network of banks and their interconnections, in the global financial system. Both the balance sheets and the stylized crisis behaviour of banks are ingredients of the network model. A systemic crisis is pictured as triggered by a shock to banks' balance sheets, which then leads to the propagation of damaging shocks and the potential for amplification of the crisis, ending with the system in a cascade equilibrium. Under some conditions the model has ``locally tree-like independence (LTI)'', where a general percolation theoretic argument leads to an analytic fixed point equation describing the cascade equilibrium when the number of banks $N$ in the system is taken to infinity. This paper focusses on mathematical properties of the framework in the context of Eisenberg-Noe solvency cascades generalized to account for fractional bankruptcy charges. New results including a definition and proof of the ``LTI property'' of the Eisenberg-Noe solvency cascade mechanism lead to explicit $N=\infty$ fixed point equations that arise under very general model specifications. The essential formulas are shown to be implementable via well-defined approximation schemes, but numerical exploration of some of the wide range of potential applications of the method is left for future work.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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