This systemic risk paper introduces inhomogeneous random financial networks (IRFNs). Such models are intended to describe parts, or the entirety, of a highly heterogeneous network of banks and their interconnections, in the global financial system. Both the balance sheets and the stylized crisis behaviour of banks are ingredients of the network model. A systemic crisis is pictured as triggered by a shock to banks' balance sheets, which then leads to the propagation of damaging shocks and the potential for amplification of the crisis, ending with the system in a cascade equilibrium. Under some conditions the model has ``locally tree-like independence (LTI)'', where a general percolation theoretic argument leads to an analytic fixed point equation describing the cascade equilibrium when the number of banks $N$ in the system is taken to infinity. This paper focusses on mathematical properties of the framework in the context of Eisenberg-Noe solvency cascades generalized to account for fractional bankruptcy charges. New results including a definition and proof of the ``LTI property'' of the Eisenberg-Noe solvency cascade mechanism lead to explicit $N=\infty$ fixed point equations that arise under very general model specifications. The essential formulas are shown to be implementable via well-defined approximation schemes, but numerical exploration of some of the wide range of potential applications of the method is left for future work.
What does the financial market pricing do? A simulation analysis with a view to systemic volatility, exuberance and vagary
Biondi et al.(2012)开发了一个分析模型,以研究股票市场价格形成随时间推移的新兴动态特性,能够捕捉重要的程式化事实。这些后一种性质证明是敏感的基本信息提供的监管制度,以及对市场的信心条件之间的实际和潜在的投资者。以按市价(公允价值)计量交易证券为基础的制度虽然在市场价格和基本信号之间产生较高的线性相关性,但也涉及较高的市场不稳定性和波动性。这些制度还在市场信心空间的某些区域引发更多相关的市场繁荣和反复无常的事件,在这些区域进一步出现较低的市场流动性。
Artificial Intelligence and Systemic Risk: A Unified Model of Performative Prediction, Algorithmic Herding, and Cognitive Dependency in Financial Markets
Aggregation operators for the measurement of systemic risk
Goethe University(歌德大学);Center of Excellence SAFE at Goethe University Frankfurt(法兰克福歌德大学卓越中心SAFE);Institute for Advanced Management Systems Research (IAMSR), Åbo Akademi University(奥博学术院高级管理系统研究所);Hanken School of Economics(汉肯经济学院);Arcada University of Applied Sciences(阿尔卡达应用科学大学)