We study the extinction risk of a fragmented population residing on a network of patches coupled by migration, where the local patch dynamics include the Allee effect. We show that mixing between patches dramatically influences the population's viability. Slow migration is shown to always increase the population's global extinction risk compared to the isolated case. At fast migration, we demonstrate that synchrony between patches minimizes the population's extinction risk. Moreover, we discover a critical migration rate that maximizes the extinction risk of the population, and identify an early-warning signal when approaching this state. Our theoretical results are confirmed via the highly-efficient weighted ensemble method. Notably, our analysis can also be applied to studying switching in gene regulatory networks with multiple transcriptional states.
How diffusion impacts on ecological dynamics under the Allee effect and spatial constraints? That is the question we address. Employing a microscopic minimal model in a metapopulation (without imposing nonlinear birth and death rates) we evince --- both numerically and analitically --- the emergence of an optimal diffusion that maximises the survival probability. Even though, at first such result seems counter-intuitive, it has empirical support from recent experiments with engineered bacteria. Moreover, we show that this optimal diffusion disappears for loose spatial constraints.
We study simple stochastic scenarios, based on birth-and-death Markovian processes, that describe populations with Allee effect, to account for the role of demographic stochasticity. In the mean-field deterministic limit we recover well-known deterministic evolution equations widely employed in population ecology. The mean-time to extinction is in general obtained by the Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approximation for populations with strong and weak Allee effects. An exact solution for the mean time to extinction can be found via a recursive equation for special cases of the stochastic dyna…
We study the combined impact of a colored environmental noise and demographic noise on the extinction risk of a long-lived and well-mixed isolated stochastic population which exhibits the Allee effect. The environmental noise modulates the population birth and death rates. Assuming that the Allee effect is strong, and the environmental noise is positively correlated and Gaussian, we derive a Fokker-Planck equation for the joint probability distribution of the population sizes and environmental fluctuations. In WKB approximation this equation reduces to an effective two-dimensional Hamiltonian …
The idea of a metapopulation has become canonical in ecology. Its original mean field form provides the important intuition that migration and extinction interact to determine the dynamics of a population composed of subpopulations. From its conception, it has been evident that the very essence of the metapopulation paradigm centers on the process of local extinction. We note that there are two qualitatively distinct types of extinction, gradual and catastrophic, and explore their impact on the dynamics of metapopulation formation using discrete iterative maps. First, by modifying the classic …
Many species are unsustainable at small population densities (Allee Effect), i.e., below a threshold named Allee threshold, the population decreases instead of growing. In a closed local population, environmental fluctuations always lead to extinction. Here, we show how, in spatially extended habitats, dispersal can lead to a sustainable population in a region, provided the amplitude of environmental fluctuations is below an extinction threshold. We have identified two types of sustainable populations: high-density and low-density populations (through a mean-field approximation, valid in the l…
This paper deals with extinction of an isolated population caused by intrinsic noise. We model the population dynamics in a "refuge" as a Markov process which involves births and deaths on discrete lattice sites and random migrations between neighboring sites. In extinction scenario I the zero population size is a repelling fixed point of the on-site deterministic dynamics. In extinction scenario II the zero population size is an attracting fixed point, corresponding to what is known in ecology as Allee effect. Assuming a large population size, we develop WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approx…
Understanding the dynamics of metapopulations close to extinction is of vital importance for management. Levins-like models, in which local patches are treated as either occupied or empty, have been used extensively for this purpose, but they ignore the important role of local population dynamics. In this paper, we consider a stochastic metapopulation model where local populations follow a Ricker dynamics, and use this framework to investigate the behaviour of the metapopulation at the brink of extinction. As long as dispersal rates are not too large, the system is shown to have a time evoluti…
The Trojan Y Chromosome strategy (TYC) is a genetic biocontrol strategy designed to alter the sex ratio of a target invasive population by reducing the number of females over time. Recently an alternative strategy is introduced, that mimics the TYC strategy by harvesting females whilst stocking males . We consider the FHMS strategy, with a weak Allee effect, and show that the extinction boundary need note be hyperbolic. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first example of a non-hyperbolic extinction boundary in mating models, structured by sex. Next, we consider the spatially explicit mo…
We analyse metapopulation dynamics in terms of an individual-based, stochastic model of a finite metapopulation. We suggest a new approach, using the number of patches in the population as a large parameter. This approach does not require that the number of individuals per patch is large, neither is it necessary to assume a time-scale separation between local population dynamics and migration. Our approach makes it possible to accurately describe the dynamics of metapopulations consisting of many small patches. We focus on metapopulations on the brink of extinction. We estimate the time to ext…
We introduce a new model for plant metapopulations with a seed bank component, living in a fragmented environment in which local extinction events are frequent. This model is an intermediate between population dynamics models with a seed bank component, based on the classical Wright-Fisher model, and Stochastic Patch Occupancy Models (SPOMs) used in metapopulation ecology. Its main feature is the use of "ghost" individuals, which can reproduce but with a very strong selective disadvantage against "real" individuals, to artificially ensure a constant population size. We show the existence of an…
We use interacting particle systems to investigate survival and extinction of a species with colonies located on each site of $\mathbb {Z}^d$. In each of the four models studied, an individual in a local population can reproduce, die or migrate to neighboring sites. We prove that an increase of the death rate when the local population density is small (the Allee effect) may be critical for survival, and that the migration of large flocks of individuals is a possible solution to avoid extinction when the Allee effect is strong. We use attractiveness and comparison with oriented percolation, eit…
Consumer demand for plant and animal products threatens many populations with extinction. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) proposes that such extinctions can be caused by prices for wildlife products increasing with species rarity. This price-rarity relationship creates financial incentives to extract the last remaining individuals of a population, despite higher search and harvest costs. The AAE has become a standard approach for conceptualizing the threat of economic markets on endangered species. Despite its potential importance for conservation, AAE theory is based on a simple graphica…
In this study, first we expand the cubic population model under Allee effect with a quadratic harvest function that represents harvest effect. Then, using four reaction equations representing the micro-interactions within the population under the influence of demographic noise and harvest, we obtain the mean field equations containing the effect of the harvest from the solution of the master equation. In this way, a relationship is established between the micro and macro parameters of the population. As a result, we calculate Mean Time to Extinction (MTE) by using WKB approximation for single …
We propose and study {a generalized Beverton-Holt competition model} subject to Allee effects to obtain insights on how the interplay of Allee effects and contest competition affects the persistence and the extinction of two competing species. By using {the theory of monotone dynamics} and the properties of critical curves for non-invertible maps, our analysis shows that our model has simple equilibrium dynamics for most conditions. The coexistence of two competing species occurs only if the system has four interior equilibria.} We provide an {approximation to} the basins of the boundary attra…
A metapopulation structure in landscape ecology comprises a group of interacting spatially separated subpopulations or patches of the same species that may experience several local extinctions. This makes the investigation of survivability (in the form of global oscillation) of a metapopulation on top of diverse dispersal topologies extremely crucial. However, among various dispersal topologies in ecological networks, which one can provide higher metapopulation survivability under local extinction is still not well explored. In this article, we scrutinize the robustness of an ecological networ…
We investigate the impact of Allee effect and dispersal on the long-term evolution of a population in a patchy environment, focusing on whether a population already established in one patch either successfully invades an adjacent empty patch or undergoes a global in-all-patch extinction. Our study is based on the combination of analytical and numerical results for both a deterministic two-patch model and its stochastic analog. The deterministic model has either two or four attractors. In the presence of weak dispersal, the analysis of the deterministic model shows that a high-density and a low…
The Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD), a unique case of a transmissible cancer, had a devastating effect on its host, the Tasmanian Devil. Current estimates of its density are at roughly 20% of the pre-disease state, and single-population epidemiological models have predicted the likely extinction of the host. Here we take advantage of extensive surveys across Tasmania providing data on the spatial and temporal spread of DFTD, and investigate the dynamics of this host-pathogen system using a spatial metapopulation model. We first confirm a most likely origin of DFTD in the north-east corner o…
Immigration can rescue local populations from extinction, helping to stabilise a metapopulation. Local population dynamics is important for determining the strength of this rescue effect, but the mechanistic link between local demographic parameters and the rescue effect at the metapopulation level has received very little attention by modellers. We develop an analytical framework that allows us to describe the emergence of the rescue effect from interacting local stochastic dynamics. We show this framework to be applicable to a wide range of spatial scales, providing a powerful and convenient…
An ecological system with multiple stable equilibria is prone to undergo catastrophic change or regime shift from one steady-state to another. It should be noted that, if one of the steady states is an extinction state, the catastrophic change may lead to extinction. A suitable manual measure may control the prevention of catastrophic changes of different species from one equilibrium to another. We consider two stochastic models with linear and nonlinear harvesting terms. We inspect either density regulation or Allee type density regulated models [Saha et al., Ecological Modelling, 2013], whic…
Stabilizing the dynamics of complex, non-linear systems is a major concern across several scientific disciplines including ecology and conservation biology. Unfortunately, most methods proposed to reduce the fluctuations in chaotic systems are not applicable for real, biological populations. This is because such methods typically require detailed knowledge of system specific parameters and the ability to manipulate them in real time; conditions often not met by most real populations. Moreover, real populations are often noisy and extinction-prone, which can sometimes render such methods ineffe…
As a result of climate change, many populations have to modify their range to follow the suitable areas - their "climate envelope" - often risking extinction. During this migration process, they may face absolute boundaries to dispersal, because of external environmental factors. Consequently, not only the position, but also the shape of the climate envelope can be modified. We use a reaction-diffusion model to analyse the effects on population persistence of simultaneous changes in the climate envelope position and shape. When the growth term is of logistic type, we show that extinction and p…
Despite great interest in techniques for stabilizing the dynamics of biological populations and metapopulations, very few practicable methods have been developed. We propose an easily implementable method, Adaptive Limiter Control (ALC), for reducing extinction frequencies and the magnitude of fluctuation in population sizes and demonstrate its efficacy in stabilizing laboratory populations and metapopulations of Drosophila melanogaster. Metapopulation stability was attained through a combination of reduced size fluctuations and synchrony at the subpopulation level. Simulations indicated that …
A strong demographic Allee effect in which the expected population growth rate is negative below a certain critical population size can cause high extinction probabilities in small introduced populations. However, many species are repeatedly introduced to the same location and eventually one population may overcome the Allee effect by chance. With the help of stochastic models, we investigate how much genetic diversity such successful populations harbour on average and how this depends on offspring-number variation, an important source of stochastic variability in population size. We find that…
The use of predator-prey models in theoretical ecology has a long history, and the model equations have largely evolved since the original Lotka-Volterra system towards more realistic descriptions of the processes of predation, reproduction and mortality. One important aspect is the recognition of the fact that the growth of a population can be subject to an Allee effect, where the per capita growth rate increases with the population density. Including an Allee effect has been shown to fundamentally change predator-prey dynamics and strongly impact species persistence, but previous studies mos…
We model sex-structured population dynamics to analyze pairwise competition between groups differing both genetically and culturally. A sex-ratio allele is expressed in the heterogametic sex only, so that assumptions of Fisher's analysis do not apply. Sex-ratio evolution drives cultural evolution of a group-associated trait governing mortality in the homogametic sex. The two-sex dynamics under resource limitation induces a strong Allee effect that depends on both sex ratio and cultural trait values. We describe the resulting threshold, separating extinction from positive growth, as a function …
We propose a general model to study the interplay between spatial dispersal and environment spatiotemporal fluctuations in metapopulation dynamics. An ecological landscape of favorable patches is generated like a Lévy dust, which allows to build a range of patterns, from dispersed to clustered ones. Locally, the dynamics is driven by a canonical model for the evolution of the population density, consisting of a logistic expression plus multiplicative noises. Spatial coupling is introduced by means of two spreading mechanisms: diffusive dispersion and selective migration driven by patch suitabi…
This work is devoted to the study of a stochastic logistic growth model with and without the Allee effect. Such a model describes the evolution of a population under environmental stochastic fluctuations and is in the form of a stochastic differential equation driven by multiplicative Gaussian noise. With the help of the associated Fokker-Planck equation, we analyze the population extinction probability and the probability of reaching a large population size before reaching a small one. We further study the impact of the harvest rate, noise intensity, and the Allee effect on population evoluti…
Habitat heterogeneity and dispersal network structure as drivers of metacommunity dynamics
University of Padova（帕多瓦大学）；National Biodiversity Future Center（国家未来生物多样性中心）；INFN, Sezione di Padova（意大利国家核物理研究所帕多瓦分部）；International Centre for Theoretical Physics（理论物理国际中心）；University of Lausanne（洛桑大学）；Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Padova（帕多瓦大学土木、环境与建筑工程系）
This paper investigates a dynamical predator-prey interaction model that incorporates: (a) hunting cooperation among predators; (b) Allee effect in prey. We show all possible boundary and interior solutions. In order to analyze the stability of the solution, we make use of the Jacobian matrix and the resultant characteristic polynomial. Particularly, the sign of the eigenvalue is used to determine the stability of a solution. We then provide proof for stability of the interior solution. Finally, we verify our results numerically in MATLAB by plotting: (1) predator-prey intersection graphs; (2)…
As proposed by Alan Turing in 1952 as a ubiquitous mechanism for nonequilibrium pattern formation, diffusional effects may destabilize uniform distributions of reacting chemical species and lead to both spatially and temporally heterogeneous patterns. While stationary Turing patterns are broadly known, the oscillatory instability, leading to traveling waves in continuous media and also called the wave bifurcation, is rare for chemical systems. Here, we extend the analysis by Turing to general networks and apply it to ecological metapopulations of biological species with dispersal connections b…
Population ecology theory is replete with density dependent processes. However trait-mediated or behavioral indirect interactions can both reinforce or oppose density-dependent effects. This paper presents the first two species competitive ODE and PDE systems where an Allee effect, which is a density dependent process and the fear effect, which is non-consumptive and behavioral are both present. The stability of the equilibria is discussed analytically using the qualitative theory of ordinary differential equations. It is found that the Allee effect and the fear effect change the extinction dy…
Habitat destruction threatens the viability of many populations, but its full consequences can take considerable time to unfold. Much of the discourse surrounding extinction debts--the number of species that persist transiently following habitat loss, despite being headed for extinction--frames ultimate population crashes as the means of settling the debt. However, slow population decline also opens an opportunity to repay the debt by restoring habitat. The timing necessary for such habitat restoration to rescue a population from extinction has not been well studied. Here we determine habitat …
Understanding the influence of structure of dispersal network on the species persistence and modeling a much realistic species dispersal in nature are two central issues in spatial ecology. A realistic dispersal structure which favors the persistence of interacting ecological systems has been studied in [Holland \& Hastings, Nature, 456:792--795 (2008)], where it is shown that a randomization of the structure of dispersal network in a metapopulation model of prey and predator increases the species persistence via clustering, prolonged transient dynamics, and amplitudes of population fluctuatio…
The question of whether biological populations survive or are eventually driven to extinction has long been examined using mathematical models. In this work we study population survival or extinction using a stochastic, discrete lattice-based random walk model where individuals undergo movement, birth and death events. The discrete model is defined on a two-dimensional hexagonal lattice with periodic boundary conditions. A key feature of the discrete model is that crowding effects are introduced by specifying two different crowding functions that govern how local agent density influences movem…
Single type and multitype branching process have been used to study the dynamics of a variety of stochastic birth-death type phenomena in biology and physics. Their use in epidemiology goes back to Whittle's study of a Susceptible--Infected--Recovered (SIR) model in the 1950s. In the case of an SIR model, the presence of only one infectious class allows for the use of single type branching processes. Multitype branching processes allow for multiple infectious classes and have latterly been used to study metapopulation models of disease. In this article, we develop a Continuous Time Markov Chai…
Understanding whether a population will survive and flourish or become extinct is a central question in population biology. One way of exploring this question is to study population dynamics using reaction-diffusion equations, where migration is usually represented as a linear diffusion term, and birth-death is represented with a bistable source term. While linear diffusion is most commonly employed to study migration, there are several limitations of this approach, such as the inability of linear diffusion-based models to predict a well-defined population front. One way to overcome this is to…
