面对气候变化的人口：Allee效应和环境边界几何的联合影响
A population facing climate change: joint influences of Allee effects and environmental boundary geometry
摘要：
由于气候变化，许多种群不得不改变它们的活动范围，以适应它们的“气候包络”，这往往有灭绝的危险。在这一迁移过程中，由于外部环境因素，它们可能面临绝对的扩散边界。因此，不仅可以修改气候包层的位置，而且可以修改气候包层的形状。我们使用一个反应扩散模型来分析气候包络线的位置和形状的同时变化对种群持续性的影响。当增长项是逻辑类型时，我们表明，灭绝和持久性主要取决于物种的流动性和气候变化的速度，而不是由气候包络线的形状。然而，考虑到Allee效应的增长项，我们发现对气候包络线形状的变化具有很高的敏感性。在这种情况下，具有高流动性的物种，尽管它们可以更容易地跟随气候包络的迁移，但当遇到边界几何形状的局部缩小时，它们将面临灭绝的风险。这种影响可以通过在变窄的出口处逐渐打开可用空间来减弱，即使它短暂地导致气候包层的面积减小。
英文摘要：
As a result of climate change, many populations have to modify their range to follow the suitable areas - their "climate envelope" - often risking extinction. During this migration process, they may face absolute boundaries to dispersal, because of external environmental factors. Consequently, not only the position, but also the shape of the climate envelope can be modified. We use a reaction-diffusion model to analyse the effects on population persistence of simultaneous changes in the climate envelope position and shape. When the growth term is of logistic type, we show that extinction and persistence are principally conditioned by the species mobility and the speed of climate change, but not by the shape of the climate envelope. However, with a growth term taking an Allee effect into account, we find a high sensitivity to the variations of the shape of the climate envelope. In this case, the species which have a high mobility, although they could more easily follow the migration of the climate envelope, would be at risk of extinction when encountering a local narrowing of the boundary geometry. This effect can be attenuated by a progressive opening of the available space at the exit of the narrowing, even though it transiently leads to a diminished area of the climate envelope.
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