We develop the first quantum algorithm for the constrained portfolio optimization problem. The algorithm has running time $\widetilde{O} \left( n\sqrt{r} \frac{ζκ}{δ^2} \log \left(1/ε\right) \right)$, where $r$ is the number of positivity and budget constraints, $n$ is the number of assets in the portfolio, $ε$ the desired precision, and $δ, κ, ζ$ are problem-dependent parameters related to the well-conditioning of the intermediate solutions. If only a moderately accurate solution is required, our quantum algorithm can achieve a polynomial speedup over the best classical algorithms with complexity $\widetilde{O} \left( \sqrt{r}n^ω\log(1/ε) \right)$, where $ω$ is the matrix multiplication exponent that has a theoretical value of around $2.373$, but is closer to $3$ in practice. We also provide some experiments to bound the problem-dependent factors arising in the running time of the quantum algorithm, and these experiments suggest that for most instances the quantum algorithm can potentially achieve an $O(n)$ speedup over its classical counterpart.
We discuss a class of risk-sensitive portfolio optimization problems. We consider the portfolio optimization model investigated by Nagai in 2003. The model by its nature can include fixed income securities as well in the portfolio. Under fairly general conditions, we prove the existence of optimal portfolio in both finite and infinite horizon problems.
We prove a general duality result for multi-stage portfolio optimization problems in markets with proportional transaction costs. The financial market is described by Kabanov's model of foreign exchange markets over a finite probability space and finite-horizon discrete time steps. This framework allows us to compare vector-valued portfolios under a partial ordering, so that our model does not require liquidation into some numeraire at terminal time. We embed the vector-valued portfolio problem into the set-optimization framework, and generate a problem dual to portfolio optimization. Using re…
In this paper we develop a concrete and fully implementable approach to the optimization of functionally generated portfolios in stochastic portfolio theory. The main idea is to optimize over a family of rank-based portfolios parameterized by an exponentially concave function on the unit interval. This choice can be motivated by the long term stability of the capital distribution observed in large equity markets, and allows us to circumvent the curse of dimensionality. The resulting optimization problem, which is convex, allows for various regularizations and constraints to be imposed on the g…
We consider the problem of portfolio optimization with a correlation constraint. The framework is the multiperiod stochastic financial market setting with one tradable stock, stochastic income and a non-tradable index. The correlation constraint is imposed on the portfolio and the non-tradable index at some benchmark time horizon. The goal is to maximize portofolio's expected exponential utility subject to the correlation constraint. Two types of optimal portfolio strategies are considered: the subgame perfect and the precommitment ones. We find analytical expressions for the constrained subga…
Minimum-variance portfolio optimizations rely on accurate covariance estimator to obtain optimal portfolios. However, it usually suffers from large error from sample covariance matrix when the sample size $n$ is not significantly larger than the number of assets $p$. We analyze the random matrix aspects of portfolio optimization and identify the order of errors in sample optimal portfolio weight and show portfolio risk are underestimated when using samples. We also provide LoCoV (low dimension covariance voting) algorithm to reduce error inherited from random samples. From various experiments,…
We introduce a robust variant of the Kelly portfolio optimization model, called the Wasserstein-Kelly portfolio optimization. Our model, taking a Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (DRO) formulation, addresses the fundamental issue of estimation error in Kelly portfolio optimization by defining a ``ball" of distributions close to the empirical return distribution using the Wasserstein metric and seeking a robust log-optimal portfolio against the worst-case distribution from the Wasserstein ball. Enhancing the Kelly portfolio using Wasserstein DRO is a natural step to take, given …
Growth-optimal portfolios are guaranteed to accumulate higher wealth than any other investment strategy in the long run. However, they tend to be risky in the short term. For serially uncorrelated markets, similar portfolios with more robust guarantees have been recently proposed. This paper extends these robust portfolios by accommodating non-zero autocorrelations that may reflect investors' beliefs about market movements. Moreover, we prove that the risk incurred by such autocorrelations can be absorbed by modifying the covariance matrix of asset returns.
We consider the problem of choosing an optimal portfolio, assuming the asset returns have a Gaussian mixture (GM) distribution, with the objective of maximizing expected exponential utility. In this paper we show that this problem is convex, and readily solved exactly using domain-specific languages for convex optimization, without the need for sampling or scenarios. We then show how the closely related problem of minimizing entropic value at risk can also be formulated as a convex optimization problem.
In this paper we consider an interval portfolio selection problem with uncertain returns and introduce an inclusive concept of satisfaction index for interval inequality relation. Based on the satisfaction index, we propose an approach to reduce the interval programming problem with uncertain objective and constraints into a standard linear programming problem with two parameters. We showed by simulation experiment that our method is capable of helping investors to find efficient portfolios according to their preference.
Considering mean-variance portfolio problems with uncertain model parameters, we contrast the classical absolute robust optimization approach with the relative robust approach based on a maximum regret function. Although the latter problems are NP-hard in general, we show that tractable inner and outer approximations exist in several cases that are of central interest in asset management.
Mean-variance portfolio optimization problems often involve separable nonconvex terms, including penalties on capital gains, integer share constraints, and minimum position and trade sizes. We propose a heuristic algorithm for such problems based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). This method allows for solve times in tens to hundreds of milliseconds with around 1000 securities and 100 risk factors. We also obtain a bound on the achievable performance. Our heuristic and bound are both derived from similar results for other optimization problems with a separable objectiv…
Noisy optimization is the optimization of objective functions corrupted by noise. A portfolio of solvers is a set of solvers equipped with an algorithm selection tool for distributing the computational power among them. Portfolios are widely and successfully used in combinatorial optimization. In this work, we study portfolios of noisy optimization solvers. We obtain mathematically proved performance (in the sense that the portfolio performs nearly as well as the best of its solvers) by an ad hoc portfolio algorithm dedicated to noisy optimization. A somehow surprising result is that it is bet…
The entropic value-at-risk (EVaR) is a new coherent risk measure, which is an upper bound for both the value-at-risk (VaR) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). As important properties, the EVaR is strongly monotone over its domain and strictly monotone over a broad sub-domain including all continuous distributions, while well-known monotone risk measures, such as VaR and CVaR lack these properties. A key feature for a risk measure, besides its financial properties, is its applicability in large-scale sample-based portfolio optimization. If the negative return of an investment portfolio is a d…
Decomposition Pipeline for Large-Scale Portfolio Optimization with Applications to Near-Term Quantum Computing
Global Technology Applied Research, JPMorganChase（摩根大通全球技术应用研究部）；Amazon Quantum Solutions Lab（亚马逊量子解决方案实验室）；AWS Center for Quantum Computing（AWS量子计算中心）；California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院）
In stochastic portfolio theory, a relative arbitrage is an equity portfolio which is guaranteed to outperform a benchmark portfolio over a finite horizon. When the market is diverse and sufficiently volatile, and the benchmark is the market or a buy-and-hold portfolio, functionally generated portfolios introduced by Fernholz provide a systematic way of constructing relative arbitrages. In this paper we show that if the market portfolio is replaced by the equal or entropy weighted portfolio among many others, no relative arbitrages can be constructed under the same conditions using functionally…
This article studies a portfolio optimization problem, where the market consisting of several stocks is modeled by a multi-dimensional jump-diffusion process with age-dependent semi-Markov modulated coefficients. We study risk sensitive portfolio optimization on the finite time horizon. We study the problem by using a probabilistic approach to establish the existence and uniqueness of the classical solution to the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. We also implement a numerical scheme to investigate the behavior of solutions for different values of the initial portfolio weal…
This paper proves equivalences of portfolio optimization problems with negative expectile and omega ratio. We derive subgradients for the negative expectile as a function of the portfolio from a known dual representation of expectile and general theory about subgradients of risk measures. We also give an elementary derivation of the gradient of negative expectile under some assumptions and provide an example where negative expectile is demonstrably not differentiable. We conducted a case study and solved portfolio optimization problems with negative expectile objective and constraint.
Deep Reinforcement Learning for Investor-Specific Portfolio Optimization: A Volatility-Guided Asset Selection Approach
School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Mandi（印度理工学院曼迪数学与统计科学学院）；Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati（印度理工学院古瓦哈提数学系）
We provide analytical results for a static portfolio optimization problem with two coherent risk measures. The use of two risk measures is motivated by joint decision-making for portfolio selection where the risk perception of the portfolio manager is of primary concern, hence, it appears in the objective function, and the risk perception of an external authority needs to be taken into account as well, which appears in the form of a risk constraint. The problem covers the risk minimization problem with an expected return constraint and the expected return maximization problem with a risk const…
The fundamental principle in Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) is based on the quantification of the portfolio's risk related to performance. Although MPT has made huge impacts on the investment world and prompted the success and prevalence of passive investing, it still has shortcomings in real-world applications. One of the main challenges is that the level of risk an investor can endure, known as \emph{risk-preference}, is a subjective choice that is tightly related to psychology and behavioral science in decision making. This paper presents a novel approach of measuring risk preference from ex…
A cardinality-constrained portfolio caps the number of stocks to be traded across and within groups or sectors. These limitations arise from real-world scenarios faced by fund managers, who are constrained by transaction costs and client preferences as they seek to maximize return and limit risk. We develop a new approach to solve cardinality-constrained portfolio optimization problems, extending both Markowitz and conditional value at risk (CVaR) optimization models with cardinality constraints. We derive a continuous relaxation method for the NP-hard objective, which allows for very efficien…
Portfolio selection is one of the most important and vital decisions that a real or legal person, who invests in stock market should make. The main purpose of this paper is the determination of the optimal portfolio with regard to stock returns of companies, which are active in Tehran's stock market. For achieving this purpose, annual statistics of companies' stocks since Farvardin 1387 until Esfand 1392 have been used. For analyzing statistics, information of companies' stocks, the Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm (COA) and Knapsack Problem have been used with the aim of increasing the total ret…
In this paper we consider a discrete-time risk sensitive portfolio optimization over a long time horizon with proportional transaction costs. We show that within the log-return i.i.d. framework the solution to a suitable Bellman equation exists under minimal assumptions and can be used to characterize the optimal strategies for both risk-averse and risk-seeking cases. Moreover, using numerical examples, we show how a Bellman equation analysis can be used to construct or refine optimal trading strategies in the presence of transaction costs.
We study a static portfolio optimization problem with two risk measures: a principle risk measure in the objective function and a secondary risk measure whose value is controlled in the constraints. This problem is of interest when it is necessary to consider the risk preferences of two parties, such as a portfolio manager and a regulator, at the same time. A special case of this problem where the risk measures are assumed to be coherent (positively homogeneous) is studied recently in a joint work of the author. The present paper extends the analysis to a more general setting by assuming that …
This study first reviews fuzzy random Portfolio selection theory and describes the concept of portfolio optimization model as a useful instrument for helping finance practitioners and researchers. Second, this paper specifically aims at applying possibility-based models for transforming the fuzzy random variables to the linear programming. The harmony search algorithm approaches to resolve the portfolio selection problem with the objective of return maximization is applied. We provide a numerical example to illustrate the proposed model. The results show that the evolutionary method of this pa…
We study relaxed stochastic control problems where the state equation is a one dimensional linear stochastic differential equation with random and unbounded coefficients. The two main results are existence of an optimal relaxed control and necessary conditions for optimality in the form of a relaxed maximum principle. The main motivation is an optimal bond portfolio problem in a market where there exists a continuum of bonds and the portfolio weights are modeled as measure-valued processes on the set of times to maturity.
Tokyo Metropolitan University（东京都立大学）；Tamagawa University（玉川大学）
In this paper, we revisit the portfolio optimization problems of the minimization/maximization of investment risk under constraints of budget and investment concentration (primal problem) and the maximization/minimization of investment concentration under constraints of budget and investment risk (dual problem) for the case that the variances of the return rates of the assets are identical. We analyze both optimization problems by using the Lagrange multiplier method and the random matrix approach. Thereafter, we compare the results obtained from our proposed approach with the results obtained…
In this paper, we propose a sparse equity portfolio optimization (SEPO) based on the mean-variance portfolio selection model. Aimed at minimizing transaction cost by avoiding small investments, this new model includes $\ell_0$-norm regularization of the asset weights to promote sparsity, hence the acronym SEPO-$\ell_0$. The selection model is also subjected to a minimum expected return. The complexity of the model calls for proximal method, which allows us to handle the objectives terms separately via the corresponding proximal operators. We develop an efficient ADMM-like algorithm to find the…
Robust portfolio optimization for recommender systems considering uncertainty of estimated statistics
Graduate School of Science and Technology, University of Tsukuba（筑波大学科学技术研究科）；Institute of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Tsukuba（筑波大学系统与信息工程研究所）
This paper examines a continuous time intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem with a stochastic differential utility preference of Epstein-Zin type for a robust investor, who worries about model misspecification and seeks robust decision rules. We provide a verification theorem which formulates the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman-Isaacs equation under a non-Lipschitz condition. Then, with the verification theorem, the explicit closed-form optimal robust consumption and portfolio solutions to a Heston model are given. Also we compare our robust solutions with the non-robust ones, and the…
The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti and M. Mézard [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007)]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set. In this study, an approximation algorithm based on belief propagation for the portfolio optimization problem is presented using the Bethe free energy formalism, and the consistency of the numerical experimental result…
Portfolio optimization requires sophisticated covariance estimators that are able to filter out estimation noise. Non-linear shrinkage is a popular estimator based on how the Oracle eigenvalues can be computed using only data from the calibration window. Contrary to common belief, NLS is not optimal for portfolio optimization because it does not minimize the right cost function when the asset dependence structure is non-stationary. We instead derive the optimal target. Using historical data, we quantify by how much NLS can be improved. Our findings reopen the question of how to build the covar…
This paper studies a distributionally robust portfolio optimization model with a cardinality constraint for limiting the number of invested assets. We formulate this model as a mixed-integer semidefinite optimization (MISDO) problem by means of the moment-based ambiguity set of probability distributions of asset returns. To exactly solve large-scale problems, we propose a specialized cutting-plane algorithm that is based on bilevel optimization reformulation. We prove the finite convergence of the algorithm. We also apply a matrix completion technique to lower-level SDO problems to make their …
Portfolio optimization has been a major topic of research in finance, as it has a significant impact on investment profit. In this paper, we investigate the problem of data uncertainty in convex multi-objective portfolio optimization. We extend Bertsimas definition of the robustness to the multi-objective case, which has two important advantages over the previous solutions. First, by restricting the maximum number of coefficients that are allowed to deviate in each row of the uncertainty matrix, we control the conservatism of our results. This modification renders our problem more flexible. Se…
The concept of Diversification Return (DR) was introduced by Booth and Fama in 1990s and it has been well studied in the finance literature mainly focusing on the various sources it may be generated. However, unlike the classical Mean-Variance (MV) model of Markowitz, DR portfolios lack optimization theory for justifying their often outstanding empirical performance. In this paper, we first explain what the DR criterion tries to achieve in terms of portfolio centrality. A consequence of this explanation is that practically imposed norm constraints in fact implicitly enforce constraints on DR. …
